BRVO.OB

[jj86]

BRVO PRODUCTS WILL SHIP TO CHINA!

BRVO WILL GO NEW HIGH!

BE PATIENT!

SEEING IS BELIEVEING!

[spalooky]

David may be right about the short term and I won't discount his analysis. After all he put me onto this stock. I do hope he's wrong, however.

My own take is different. l think the deal is misunderstood by the market and will be wildly positive for BRCVO holders with some guts. I think it's in the category of one of the best investment opportunities available in US equities right now.

The Raging Bull board shows the confusion over the deal and represents the yin and yang of the debate.  Miggie, Clarksavage and Binnieo have some good reads.

We'll see soon enough how it all shakes out once this deal is degaussed.   


(OT, David I just read Jimmy Rogers book Hot Commodities. You recently posted you were a futures trader at one time. From Rogers book now I know futures trader is the same thing as commodities trader. If you don't mind my asking, what commodities did you trade? I'd like to invest in commodities but I don't know where to start. Any ideas? What commodities look appealing to you now? Rogers likes oil, lead, coffee and sugar. He also has a commodities index fund but it's not for sale in Minnesota yet.)

Peace Out (from Napoleon Dynamite- best comedy of the decade!)

[David Randolph]

Hello spalooky 

About BRVO, I guess at least one thing is clear: CCE says it will invest $38M in BRVO. They have options to buy 69,000,000 shares at $0.36 and they say they will buy an additional 81,000,000 shares directly from BRVO. The 69,000,000 shares will cost $0.36*69,000,000=$24.84M. CCE is left with just $13.16M to buy the additional 81,000,000 BRVO shares, so the price per share will be 13.16M/81M = $0.1624.

CCE will buy more than 50% of BRVO for $38M, or $0.25 a share. Why should I pay 4 times more? (2 times more would be allright, but 4 times?  )The CEO says he didn't build the company to be sold to PEPSI, but that would be a much better deal for shareholders. CCE should takeover BRVO above market price, not getting a control position in the company at 1/4 of market value.

I guess this happened because BRVO management started talks with CCE months ago (these deals take months to be made) and 4 months ago the stock was at $0.10. The deal would be great, with CCE paying a 150% premium for the control of the company. But, the market moves fast, and while they were doing the deal the stock shot up more than tenfold. The final deal didn't reflect this market movement, and that's wrong.

The only hope for current shareholders is that this deal doesn't close at all, at least not at this low price, management should negotiate this better, CCE should buy their position at market prices, not with a scheme behind the scenes !

What do you think of my reasoning? If you want please post this (and the other post where I gave 15 reasons to sell BRVO) on ragingbull, perhaps I'm wrong and someone comes up with a better reasoning for this (I would seriously like to get back into BRVO, I just have no motive at current prices).

About commodities, I love Jim Rogers and I own some of his books, but not that one, yet. In the US people talk about futures as commodities, but in Europe it is a different thing. We've had single stock future for more than a decade now. I've traded single stock futures since 1998 and I'm an active day trader on the DAX futures since 2001.

I've also traded some gold futures and I'm a long term bullish in commodities since 2001. I don't know enough to be more bullish in one or another commodity, I like them all as a group. I believe Jim is right when he says we're in an environment much like the 70's.

Thanks for your post 

[stocky]

When the management sells the securities [or dilutes] at below the market price then with almost no exception market does not like it atleast in the short run. You can let me know if I am wrong on this.

I hope that BRVO guys wake up and come up with some sound economics. I sold my share for loss on Friday [at peak I had 40% profit and then loss of 10%, now thats one of the greatest sins of trading], and hope that things does not get worse for others.

[though my earlier trade did gave me some 80% profit, so can say that at the end of the day it was still 70% net profit with BRVO ]

[starfire]

David wrote;
"About BRVO, I guess at least one thing is clear: CCE says it will invest $38M in BRVO. They have options to buy 69,000,000 shares at $0.36 and they say they will buy an additional 81,000,000 shares directly from BRVO. The 69,000,000 shares will cost $0.36*69,000,000=$24.84M. CCE is left with just $13.16M to buy the additional 81,000,000 BRVO shares, so the price per share will be 13.16M/81M = $0.1624.

CCE will buy more than 50% of BRVO for $38M, or $0.25 a share. Why should I pay 4 times more? (2 times more would be allright, but 4 times?  )The CEO says he didn't build the company to be sold to PEPSI, but that would be a much better deal for shareholders. CCE should takeover BRVO above market price, not getting a control position in the company at 1/4 of market value.

I guess this happened because BRVO management started talks with CCE months ago (these deals take months to be made) and 4 months ago the stock was at $0.10. The deal would be great, with CCE paying a 150% premium for the control of the company. But, the market moves fast, and while they were doing the deal the stock shot up more than tenfold. The final deal didn't reflect this market movement, and that's wrong."

The average price being paid by CCE is 25 cents. Yes this the cash price. You are right in saying that it is not the market price. The market price is the discounted value of future cash flows. This is where the value of Master Distribution Rights fits in. The point I am making is this:

MArket Price = $1.00= 25 cents + Value of Master Distribution Rights.

[spalooky]

"It is anticipated"

(that CCE's total investment would be 38M)

Doesn't mean it will be. I think this is a lowball offer. We'll see how well BRVO can negotiate. I think they both want eachother and that CCE should be willing to pay 1-1.20 per share for the 81M. We'll see  

[stocky]

BRVO could have done it without CCE.

Take the case of HANES NATURAL [HANS ticker]. Just look at those guys. They did it on their own and the stock raced up from 4$ to 97.8$ and going.

And at this stage, HANS may be taken over with premium by PEPSI or COKE who ever is the highest bidder.. Now contrast that with the BRVO situation and you may get my point.

Dont have a position in HANS or BRVO

[spalooky]

I want to set straight a misunderstanding about a statement I made.

Roy's comment about not building up the company only to see it get sold to Pepsi was in regards to Coke. He said CCE wants majority control of BRVO because they (CCE) don't want to build up the company only to see it sold to Pepsi. With majority control they can prevent such a transaction.

[sailjero]

sorry if I am posting on the wrong message board here ,some one with better knowledge than me can post apropriately this stock on fire for the last week whent from 3 dollars and closed friday over 10.50 ,it is a stock with small float ,as a matter of fact the float traded about 4 times on friday alone ,and I beleive there is still lots of steam to bring it up again on monday ,actually excellent stock for day traders ,made good money last week with this one
if you do some DD here you will find that this company may have a excellent products or services ,energy savings of 20% is huge to all retail store ,Walmarts actually testing the products
good luck
John
once again sorry if this post is in the wrong place on this site I am trying to find out how to work with this site
I think it is the best for all of uss trying to beat the stock market makers at there own game ,one need to join and learn to play the game in order to make some $$$$$$ here

[starfire]

sail...u must be refering to CAFE. Just do a search on CAFE and join the thread there! When I have a stock in mind, I always do a search first and then either join the thread or create one. Each board has a name by category. I hope this helps.

[sailjero]

right on ,I forgot to put the stock I was refering to ,how did you guest CAFE ,thank you 

[goformoney]

The distribution agreement is the key of this deal. BRVO could do it their own but it may take them years to capture a decent market shares. Other companies like PEPSI CO may respond faster to the market's demand and limit BRVO's growth. With CCE,  their existing infra-structure wil help them to compete with the big guyss in the market. I guess more upside than downside.

Also, they are still negotiating the final price. 0.36/share is the option terms. Put it to comparison, BRVO is at 93 cents right now. Since CCE acquires them from 12 shareholders, it must pay more than 0.36 cents.......

[ehos]

David, I think you're making a huge assumption that CCE's last 18 or so million will buy them the rest of the 51% they need to control BRVO.

It won't.  That's great they negotiated for all those options at .36, but with involvement of the 'fair agreement' (indepedent banker to review etc), there is no way the rest of the shares will be bought for that cheap.

Also, when they bought those options for .36 the stock was trading around .10

Now when they need the rest, the stock is at .93 (If they were willing to pay triple then, why not now??)

I still see confusion in the deal, the only sure thing that has been mentioned is the options at .36 cents.   

[goformoney]

I think there is too much speculations here and it is very annoying. Some says it's good to the company and some says its stock price is going to see 50 cents before $2.

We all read the press release and we all doubt that the current terms will be accepted by BRVO. Let's the independent bank do the work and show us the fair value of this company.

[slomo007]

Depending on how it opens today, I'll be adding MANY more shares.  I have no fears/concerns at this point, because CCE will not get away with a .25/share price....I'll put my money on the intelligence of BRVO's management. 

Regardless, even if they do somehow manage to get a .25/share price, I'm not in it for the immediate short term, and within a few months, or even up to a few years, BRVO would still be an excellent opportunity.  I understand David's thoughts to sell, because it may not be that great in the next few days (who knows, however), but in the long term there is absolutely no reason to believe it won't be a very valuable stock to own.  The trick is trying to find out when the low point will be, so that you can reinvest before the upswing.  That's the real challenge for us, not deciding whether or not it will hit $5, it will.