BRVO.OB

[shawFund]

Hi, Melf:

    Great work on the chart analysis. I agree with your technical analysis on the chart patterns.

    May I suggest that it will be much better if the whole chart can be seen without using the horizontal scroll.

[boatguy]

Saw this on RB- Slammers in vending machines next to Coke.

Good pics-

Test marketing?

http://www.imaginationoverdrive.com/slammers.htm

[boatguy]

Hey wait, Gromitron, who took the pictures of slammer vending machines, posts on this site too.

Great find and thanks for the pics!!!

[valueseeker]

Excellent pictures - certainly caught investors eyes with pictures like this, and Coke's deal is supposed to close in 3 more business days!

I was out at $1.1 last month, but back at low $0.6 early last week.

[gromitron]

Hey, I was just going to post the link to my website with the pics here, but i see someone already did!

hehe

I was excited to see the machines, I think they did a good job with them.  All the Coke machines next to them, I'm sure its part of a test market.  Wish they had put them in a nicer mall, tho.


http://www.imaginationoverdrive.com/slammers.htm

[Melf Elf]

May I suggest that it will be much better if the whole chart can be seen without using the horizontal scroll.

You certainly may suggest that.  It's a pain in the neck to have to use the horizontal scroll, but I don't know how to make the chart smaller.  If you or anyone else can tell me, I'd be glad to do that in the future if it doesn't affect the clarity of the chart.

[don]

Glad to see this range of views. Thanks to all, particularly for David's. This is a great learnining environment.
I would suggest looking at the chart to see if it's confirming the fundamentals.  If it isn't, I'd be a little bit suspicious about the fundamentals.
When I posted, I was implying that my financial analytical background has me thinking
- that this CCE deal will proceed is a critical part of the positive fundamentals;
- if it does so, then the fundaments will have remained unchanged;
- if the stock price rises, then it goes against what technical analysis suggests;
Consequently, a reasonable proposition, as an alternative to fillthegap's, would be; if I look to the charts to confirm the fundamentals, and they don't, then I should be suspicious of the charts. I remain more comfortable with the tangible news I have, and unconvinced that the charts can tell me (okay, imply) that the CCE deal news is going to change for the worst, or that there is other negative news coming.
"story is one of a newly public company, experiencing rapid growth, that failed to meet its accounting and financial reporting obligations to its shareholders and the public." 
I don't think one can imply from the Krispy Kreme story that charts will help you avoid crooks cooking the books. The whole financial reporting/investing system relies on audit reports put out by CPA's stating that the company's financial snapshot (the balance sheet) is 'clean'. Yet every report states that their audit work cannot be guaratneed to identify fraud. There are no guarantees in life. Neither with fundamentals nor technical analysis. So, let us agree to disagree.
The great thing is, we will all be able to compare notes in a week or so. and I too am impressed with the good naturered posts found here. Good luck to all. Don.

[rickjust]

hi,
i hope this is not  a stupid question, but how can you tell if a stock like brvo at this point is being accumulated or distributed. it seems to be hugging .67 - .68
with the number of shares traded it is holding steady , can anyone shine light on this for me.?
thanks
maxi

[Irishman]

Maxi-
There is no such thing as a stupid question. This is how we all learn, and even though I have been trading for many years, I am still learning and undoubtedly will continue to do so until the day I decide to stop trading. ( Can't imagine when that day would come, however)
Anyway, when a stock is treading water like BRVO has done over the last number of sessions it is said to be "Basing' or forming a "Base". More times than not this base will act as a support price for the stock. Hope that helps and all the best.

Irish

[ehos]

Just to clarify as well, when it makes a 'base' it means it can tread up or down from there.  (Most people think once a base is formed it can only go up from there).

This base forms resistance if the stock goes down and 'support' if it goes up.

[Ramsburg]

May I suggest that it will be much better if the whole chart can be seen without using the horizontal scroll.

You certainly may suggest that.  It's a pain in the neck to have to use the horizontal scroll, but I don't know how to make the chart smaller.  If you or anyone else can tell me, I'd be glad to do that in the future if it doesn't affect the clarity of the chart.

Hi Melf,

The best way, is to resize the chart window size, then copy, and paste on some image software like PaintShop Pro, or even the Windows Paint.

best regards,

[basonista]

Also, think of base forming as happening after a decline, hence the "expectation" that it will move to the upside when done forming.  The reason it tends to move up after forming a base is because potential buyers see that a bottom has been reached and at some point either decide to jump in moving prices up or continue to stay away which can result in further declines in s/p.

At the opposite end, a ceiling is formed after an advance when a point or area of resistance is met.  After a period of time (usually a few days) of failed penetration of the ceiling people tend to give up (see that further gains are in jeopordy) and start selling the stock, starting it's decline.

As ehos mentioned, when bases and ceilings are formed, the stock can still continue in it's previous direction if the base fails as a support area or the ceiling fails as a point of resistance.  That is why, when going long on a stock, it is better to buy it after the base has formed and it has begun it's move upwards again.  I don't short stocks but the same would be true when resistance holds for a time and a decline begins.

Besides BRVO, check out BCON, EYII and HISC for a couple of stocks working on forming bases with message boards here.

[Melf Elf]

- if the stock price rises, then it goes against what technical analysis suggests;

Back in July when the chart looked bearish, technical analysis suggested that on a break of the Bearish Channel, BRVO was going to go back to where the Bear Channel began, at .655, and possibly back to where the parabolic rally began. That doesn't mean that a Parabolic Return is going to happen, or that if it doesn't, it goes against what technical analysis suggests.  

BRVO fell from a high of 1.42 to .565, for a loss of 60%, and went below the bottom of the Bear Channel, so we already have bearish confirmation of what the chart was suggesting.  We've got the minimum downside target, and the selloff could be over.  Buying it here could end up being the right play.  I have no idea.  

But, personally, I don't want to buy a stock that just gapped down out of a bearish pattern, just as I wouldn't want to short a stock that had an upside breakaway gap out of a bullish pattern.  The probability of success with employing either of those strategies isn't favored over the long run, but it could work out with BRVO.  I hope it does for those who are long.

I don't think one can imply from the Krispy Kreme story that charts will help you avoid crooks cooking the books.

I think that they can, only we often don't know "the reason" at the time that we sell a gap down, or sell a break of support, etc.

There's a market saying, "First the chart...then the news" which means that first we'll see a problem with the chart (or the reverse), then later on we find out what the reason was.  Sometimes, much later.  When I posted the bearish BRVO chart in late July, we didn't know what the news would be that would send BRVO back to .655.  We just knew that the chart was looking bearish.  Now we know the news, and more importantly, the reaction to the news.

Buit, no, a chart certainly can't tell us if someone is cooking the books.  The chart only can guide us, and help us get out of a stock, sometimes well ahead of the disclosure of bad news, as in the case of Krispy Kreme.

Good luck with BRVO, Don.   I hope this turns into a big winner for those who are long.  


 

[Melf Elf]

Hi Melf,

The best way, is to resize the chart window size, then copy, and paste on some image software like PaintShop Pro, or even the Windows Paint.

best regards,

Thanks, Frederick.  Here I go again...I dont' know how to do that 

I'll try to figure it out.  Thanks again!

[starfire]

I am a newbie to TA and reading graphs, essentially I am a numbers guy. But numbers drive the graph! Just looking at the graph, it looks very isolated and precarious. The big Q is, will the MDA meet expectations? Here are the issues that I see:

1. The revenue forecasted (mentioned in the CC) for 2006 is $80M - $90M (million). This is CCE's revenue. WHat is BRVO's share of this?

2. In the modified alternative, the fully diluted number of shares (after the conversion of Warrants, options, CDs, preferred) is 200million shares. And if CCE converts, add an dditionl 30 million. Hence the total diluted number of shares will be 250 million. This is about 50 million difference from alternative I. Thus the perceived burden of the diluted shares still persists.

Bottom line, if the MDA does not meet expectations, then expect some more downside, otherwise it will form support and retrace previous levels.