BRVO.OB

[don]

question: if you have your trading profits in the bank, do you net them against your current holding  cost, to determine your 'true' holding cost? I know it is a bit of a conundrum... But, I'd appreciate any comments. Don.

[don]

I'm not trading currently. But, like others, I can't stop conjecture. I looked at what research reports were available and that led me to one which did a comparison to the ''competition'. 3 cos are reported on (i didn't buy the report, just used their idea!). I reviewed stock price to sales, it didn't tell me much. Then I factored in what I anticipate about BRVO's future prospects and what the market fundamentals valuation does not reflect. This is what I got:
Tofutti: (TOF) Yocream: (YOCM) LIFEWAY FOODS: (LWAY) Bravo: (BRVO)
the historic, or trailing 12 months ratios I looked at are: P/S and Quarterly Sales growth
StockPrice to sales divided by quarterly sales growth factor:
TOF 0.91 X 100/3.436 = 26.5
YOCM 0.57 X 100/3.7 = 15.4
LWAY 6.66 X 100/26.7 = 24.5
BRVO 13.98 X100/69.9 = 20.00 nothing special there, but
I believe that for BRVO the # of shares will double from the 110mill. quoted in the source I used, to 220mill. I also believe that the sales will grow from 4.8mill/year (ttm) by greater than the 67% used (my source is Yahoo finance). I estimate 2000% or 96mill.
This makes th4e revised ratio for BRVO look like this:
BRVO factors used: - trailing 12 months sales 4.81M
                                      - float 110mill shares
double the sharesmeans the  p/s = 28
sales growth is 2000%  28 X100/2000 = 1.4
Consequently, this is the current comparison with vaguely competitor stocks:
TOF 0.91 X 100/3.436 = 26.5
YOCM 0.57 X 100/3.7 = 15.4
LWAY 6.66 X 100/26.7 = 24.5
BRVO(revised)  13.98X2 X100/2000 = 1.4
Just playing with numbers. But this does support the contention that the market has not factored in the sales growth prospects, yet. Don.

[bigdogs99999]

"Ar-nuld" wants to help us in a big way!   Dave

SACRAMENTO, California (Reuters) - California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed legislation on Thursday to ban carbonated soda in state high schools as part of an effort to stem teen obesity.

"California is facing an obesity epidemic," said Schwarzenegger, a former Mr. Olympia and longtime health advocate. "Today we are taking some first steps in creating a healthy future for California."

He signed the legislation at the start of a daylong summit on health and obesity in the California capital Sacramento. He said that one out of three children in California, the nation's most populous state, is obese.

"Obesity-related health problems cost us $28 billion a year," Schwarzenegger said. "We are going to terminate obesity in California once and for all."

The new law allows milk, drinks with at least 50 percent fruit or vegetable juice and drinking water without sweetener. It would be phased in from 2007 and take full effect in 2009.

The ban, already in existence in California's elementary schools, will cost school districts hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost income.

[robt]

wow!

I'll bet this looming bill had a considerable affect on the coke/bravo negotiations.

Nice that we got our white candlestick today. A couple more days like this and we should run, eh?

I agree that it seems strange for the institutions to sell at this juncture, except for the fact that they've been forbidden to sell for some time now (possibly months), while watching a lot of attractive sell and buy conditions go by. Certainly nothing stops them from buying cheaper after offloading shares, I'm certain many did so.

The CEO said he knew that one of the institutions was not going to sell at all. That does not preclude the possibility that a number of others are holding as well.

The initial prodigious dump was certainly ugly, and prompted me to lighten my holdings, and I've managed to stay near break-even. I think continued selling will continue to slow BRVO down, and I hope it will afford me the opportunity to load up again cheaply before we fill that hefty gap up to 80 cents.

[basonista]

2nd shoulder done forming?

Just don't let Arnold read the calorie count of the Slammers if they make it into his vending machines.    Maybe they should put the Terminator on a Slammer!

Helping with a couple of charts...

[robt]

If the sugar is a problem, Bravo has answers:



(Blenders packaging and nutritional info now on their site! Sweetened with Sucralose.)



(Anybody try a Slim Slammer yet? I suspect they're formulated for a more adult taste.)

[basonista]

Very nice! 

My wife and I tried both of the Slim Slammers.  We definitely like them more than the kid oriented Slammers.  Less sweet, just as healthy and with a very good flavor.

Arnie should have no problem endorsing either of those!

[ABEX_TRADER]

 I see where you are getting the Inverse H&S now.

I was trying to crunch #'s, especially the shr.out and there have been much speculation to it.

MarketWatch also shows the 110#.In the latest CC they mentioned there was appox. 225 and 1\2 held by CCE..

Someone mentioned the pt. about where they are going with the purchasing of Equipment which surely brings concerns. If a Co. shows the numbers of sales they had mentioned in the projections as inline with forecast. The capitol they have ,plus the potential capital they will produce a bank or other institution will surely give them the loan I wold think. We are not talking small projections any longer with this co..   

I have not looked at the #'s of the Co. that you mentioned Don ,but I did look at COT & JSDA and this Co. based on those #'s shall make the cos. pps rise expotentionally over time.The co. needs to get through to next yr. before people listen. Might be less. It should be at $1 now given the projections and CCE's blessing to distribute I would think,but the markets always run contrary to conventional wisdom.

It's just the wait to be noticed game.

[robt]

I don't recall anything about Bravo purchasing equipment. The "Shibula" production line would be purchased by their contractor, Jasper Foods, and Bravo would have to make a deal to have access.

By the way, I've searched the Internet high and low, and the only Shibula I can find is a South African tourist spot. I'm wondering whether we have the right spelling. Does anybody have any idea what a "Shibula" is, exactly?

[ABEX_TRADER]

Did you get the spelling from the Co.?

The way the co. described it in the CC they would need to pay the cost for the machine,price tag $30M.  So they must have to absorb atleast some of that cost if I am correct.

[don]

MarketWatch also shows the 110#.In the latest CC they mentioned there was appox. 225 and 1\2 held by CCE.. Really? Can you post the url, I got to see that to believe it!
Seriously, I'd like to check it out and then blacklist that site, from future dd. tia, don.

[don]

I don't recall anything about Bravo purchasing equipment. The "Shibula" production line would be purchased by their contractor, Jasper Foods, and Bravo would have to make a deal to have access.

By the way, I've searched the Internet high and low, and the only Shibula I can find is a South African tourist spot. I'm wondering whether we have the right spelling. Does anybody have any idea what a "Shibula" is, exactly?

Jasper is a private owned, long established family run company. They did not respond to my enquiries about expansion plans for production capacity for Bravo.
Jasper uses the Tetra Pak Tetra Plast linear filler aseptic (LFA) system.
The following is thanks to McMike@Investorshub, who did the leg work!

If you want to check out the specs for this system, go to http://www.foodengineeringmag.com/CDA/ArticleInformation/coverstory/BNPCoverStoryItem/0,6326,94952,0....

This system (the LFA-20) can produce  2.5 million units/ month. A 2nd LFA-20 is due to come online in September and a third next April which will bring monthly capacity to 7.5 million units/ month. I don't know who is paying for these machines, I would imagine they are lease financed.
In Bravo's cc, they did state that they had the capacity to build inventory to meet later '05 demand.

I would guess that BRVO is looking to produce some 16-18mill units before the end of 2005, and will have production capacity of 5 million units/mo. until the third LFA-20 comes online next April.

If they are going to do $80 million in revenue next year they will need to produce something close to 100 million units. They cannot produce that with 3 LFA-20s so they will undoubtedly be looking to build more capacity, and, given the 9-12mo. lead time to order/install the filler equipment, an announcement should be forthcoming re. capacity-building, soon after the CCE MDA is signed.

They stated that a Shibuya system could do 8million units/mo. I believe they are talking about this company:

http://www.shibuya-int.com/Flame1.htm

Here is a story on one of their fillers:
http://www.shibuya-int.com/images/reprint_0403.pdf

I hope this helps! Don.

.

[ABEX_TRADER]

Don:
   I think MW they are just using the Public Float numbers provided by whatever source is anyone's guess.

During the CC the CEO (Roy) did come up with such a number also I think seeing that CCE would get 1\2 the shares that I bet will not go on the public market for an alloted time period if ever. Most Cos. that get into agreements like this hold those shares for faroff future use. They want to see BRVO to become a big player and they want to see the pps go up also.

They have to hold on those shares for sometime before they would be able to sell them .The time period at the earliest I think is 2yrs. and need to give BRVO a 1yr. notice and they are locked in for 1 yr. from the date of the contract before wanting to give notice of voiding the contract. Therefore those shares are tied up I bet for 2yrs. at least the very least.

I could be wrong ,but that is the way I read it through what the CEO had to say.

The Share Out equation has been very confusing to say the least along with the way the Warrants and Option dealing is happening.

BTW thanks for the projection comparison.

With an approx. of 125Mshrs. Public what would you give for pps projections if the co. does meet their expectations in 4yrs.? Any ideas. If you had mentioned it I will look.

If they do in fact meet the goal to be the #2 Chocolate Milk Manf. on the heels of the #1 who I imagine is Nestle It makes one wonder if this could go to $30+ in 4yrs. time. Right now getting to $1 is challenging enough, but it would be nice to see the co. become an established highflier.

The way I hope the Co. develops is along the lines of how Snapple went although they went to market using the Bigboard and under totally different circumstances. But I look at this as  being getting into Snapple when it just started going national and getting market attention to expand .They got funding through going public.BRVO is using CCE to get there.

I do not remember the Float they had going public, but I do remember they went up and split several times before getting bought up.They made a lot of $$ for a lot of people and I am hoping that BRVO can better than duplicate that seeing that we are getting in on the groundfloor of a dynamic growth co..

Patience and a keen understanding to what is happening within the issue is a must which is easier said then done, but at least we have projection #'s provided by the Co. from the last CC as a roadmap of what we might expect to happen in the next 4yrs..   

Even if the numbers come in 70% accurate we are looking at a very big co. coming online that will be noticed. How the sector and  the market goes is entirely a different matter. $$ talks though and they will get their notable market attention as long as sales improve qtr. over qtr. and yr. after yr. I think.

[robt]

AH! Shibuya! I should have guessed it was that!

"Shibuya" is also a district in Tokyo, a popular hang-out district for slacker teens, and Shibuya Station is famous for its memorial statue of loyal dog Hachi (who waited dutifully at Shibuya Station for his expired master -- a university professor -- every day at 3 pm from 1925 to 1934)

Impressive machine, to!

[ABEX_TRADER]

AH! Shibuya! I should have guessed it was that!

"Shibuya" is also a district in Tokyo, a popular hang-out district for slacker teens, and Shibuya Station is famous for its memorial statue of loyal dog Hachi (who waited dutifully at Shibuya Station for his expired master -- a university professor -- every day at 3 pm from 1925 to 1934)

Impressive machine, to!

Did the expired master ever show up? Let's hope we do not have to wait that long for BRVO to break the $1 level! L