BRVO.OB

[netfishmademerich]

Fre BRVO is in a downtrend and that will not get it to the $0.70`s. The trend will not change until after some fundamental event.  The next event is the January shareholders update where expectations will be lowered.  This is why it is wise to sell now until after the update.

[KCScott]

First off, huge applause to Jeff (Fill_the_Gap) for the incredible effort.

I take no pleasure in pointing out the only thing most investors / speculators will see:

I feel really sad when I read fill_the_gaps comments saying the company will miss its internal forecasts for the 4th quarter and will probably significantly guide lower on 2006 revenue projections.

Hopefully most of you are able to sell with small loss.

I believe there will be an over reaction when the company announces, or possibly earlier.
I also believe there is profit potential based on this over reaction.

Looking at the chart, it appears a long way down if / when it breaks .50

David, a what price would you be a buyer again? - Or would you need to confirm a trend before re-entry?

[shawFund]

One private placement followed by another one. That is the nature for most of the OB stocks.

They need your money to feed their spending.

Too many shares.

[stocky]

It takes lot of courage to adapt to changing market. I must say BRAVO David. There will certainly be other opportunities.

[Prfsr Hal]

I had posted  skeptical opinions early on; thought the deal favored CCE and not BRVO.   Wondered why it was on the SOF list rather than pennies.  Sorry for this to ahve been a rare occasion where my gut instinct was right.  I trust nobody gets hurt too bad though.  Not as bad as my 98.87 (current) loss on QBID.

prfsr Hal

[don]

David has posted some very perceptive thoughts here, this week.
I understand how he has arrived at his decision. I am somewhat surprised at how quickly the  tide of negative opinions has arisen (excl. the Prof.).

I can spot at least one significant error of logic in what has been posted (you should use the 'Treasury' calculation method, when computing the fully diluted float. That calculation, as I understand it,  produces a total of approximately 250 mill.) .
I have more work to do, dissecting what is true and what is perhaps unintentionally misleading, after I spoke with Jeff Kaplan tonite (he was kind enough to call me here in Thailand). I have 4 day stomach flu, so I'm off to bed. So my work will wait. I do not intend to sell in to this trend...unless you are a trader.
My advice to all (other than David and the Prof) is - be careful that you make your decisions based on facts, and not on emotions. Don.

[David Randolph]

David, a what price would you be a buyer again? - Or would you need to confirm a trend before re-entry?

If nothing changes, I would be a buyer again around $0.25-$0.30 (about $80 to $85M market cap).

I still think that, over the long term, say 5 years, BRVO can reach $5 (if there's no significant dilution, that would be a $1.5 B market cap, HANS has $1.85 B), if everything works out well with the company's expansion plans. My reasoning is that, long at $0.60 that would represent about 8 bags of profit.

If I'm long at $0.30, instead of $0.60, $5 would mean 16 bags of profit. That's quite a difference.

I'm afraid the reasons I gave to sell (almost 300 million shares outstanding and probably the company asking permission to increase the number of authorized shares, lower than expected revenues, no profits) can take BRVO.OB down to $0.25-$0.30 by mid 1st quarter 2006. We'll see. I hope not.

Good luck to all of you that  will keep on holding, I hope I'm wrong or, if I'm right, conditions set up so you can buy more at $0.25-$0.30 and then the stock goes to $5-$10 over the long term.

[cc1120]

12/22/2005  7:05  PST

Forget Brvo, never touch otc or pink again ! better paly Prgx, check it out,please!

GLTA.

cc

[cc1120]

GLTA

cc

[snowcat]

I took my 15% loss and went home.  Damn.  I notice this happens when I make a profit on a stock then go in it for a 2nd time and give it all back.  Did it with NVAX, HOM, AOB etc.

Also I (we) kept this stock based on fundamentals even when the chart said to sell.

I hope I learned my stock market lesson. I hope I remember it.

[bigdogs99999]

I still think that, over the long term, say 5 years, BRVO can reach $5....

I never thought I would do this, but a smite on you David.      Emotional reactions to news and evolution in a small-cap start-up company does not a trading plan make (emotional reactions ended the pennies board).  Anyone who invests in small-cap start-ups knows that (1) dilution will occur (it is not a probably, these companies are always going back to the market for more money); (2) estimates are, at best, wild-ass guesses; and (3) volatility will be ever present in the stock price.  Some smart investors paid $0.50 for shares recently with options in the .80s.  That may well be a floor.  Your plan all along for this stock was to "hold for the long term."  This is not the long term.  And even you still think that 5 years out this stock is $5.  From a low .50s start, that is about 60% per year.  If all my investments gave me those returns, I would be a happy happy guy....

[puenthouse]

Bigdog, i hear ya.  Im not stoic enough for the "this stock is going to double one day and then selll sell the next.  But david has shown an over all profit, and that is the GOAL.  However, I do NOT agree with david either on this one. This stock will not be at 25 cents.  There is no rational to it.  and if it does, (like the stock market is always rational) i will sit on 1/2 of my money and buy a ton more and wait 1 year or 5 years.  Im sure it will beat my dad who has his money in a bank. But right here right now, im betting that it does not do that. 

Either way david is successful because he will follow his plan.  He gets to buy more when its cheaper, or buy in a bull market, both gaining him money.  all the while letting him use that 6.66% in other stocks that are in bull markets. I unlike david am not using other peoples money.  i am down and can no longer sell for loses.  David has money, well im younger, and i have something better, TIME .   

DOG, you and I are the same I beleive, and I just found i can not make the trades that david does.  I have to stick to my guns a little longer.  GL my freinds. The good news is we should all be fat and happy off this bad boy wiether you get it at 1.00 .50 or .25 some day

[echo]

I think as more time goes by we are getting to see more negative news on BRVO. It is just too rikly to stay in this stock right now, so I'm out. If they increase the outstanding shares more I don't see how the stock price can head higher. There's just tooo many outstanding shares as it is. As it is now this stock has a market cap of over 70 million and a stock price of .53 If they increase the outstanding shares more what will this do to the stock price? Maybe one day we can see that BRVO is in better shape and get back in. Right now I'm staying away. Otc stocks need lots of positive news to head up (and even with positive news its hard for a penny to rise).

[David Randolph]

Maybe you're right bigdogs99999 and I respect your opinion. And certainly I'm not the right person to write bearish things about BRVO.OB, so I won't.

I was talking with Ramsburg over lunch about this, about how sad I was that I had to sell BRVO. Then I started to wonder about the ideal multi-bag long term stock, one of those that can rise from pennies to $100 in, say, 2 or 3 years.

These kind of stocks almost always have a small number of shares outstanding, say, less than 30 million. As I study more and more stocks I find that it is very important to keep the number of shares outstanding more or less steady, or at least growing only because of stock splits (that's the best scenario).

Good companies finance themselves with profits from operations and growth, not always asking for investor's money. If a business model takes 5 to 10 years to be profitable, probably it isn't a sound business model.

I'm talking generally, not on BRVO's specific case. What do you think?

On BRVO the share count is way too big at this point. Going to $1.2 would mean an increase in market value of $180M. The company needs to create $180M in value for every $0.60 the stock price rises.

I would prefer to invest for the long term in a company that needs to create just $5 or $10M in value to rise the same $0.60 and is also trading below $1.

Is that company outthere? I'm sure it is, I'll continue searching for it ...

I'm still learning a few tricks of the stock game (I've been a futures trader for the best part of my trading career), but I'm sure I can learn very fast if I put my mind to it.

It's been a pleasure bigdogs, I hope you're right and BRVO is the shining star you're looking for.

[FALCON64]

Anybody have any ideas on how 4800  investers can exit a stock on the same day and not hurt themselves in the process. There is no doubt in my mind the Bravo's drop today is Randolph-inspired . If you still have this stock I think you should hold it for at least a little longer and let the stampede thru.