BRVO.OB

[snowcat]

01/10/06
42.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

BRVO
From the conference today.

Vending machines are a huge growth area. 51M potential revenue from initial rollout into 8400 CCE vending machines. 324M potential if they get into 10% of CCE's vending machines.

Only 3 FDA approved manufacturers. Jasper, Hood and Morningstar. Morningstar does coffee creamers. In negotiation with Hood which has 100M bottles a year capacity. Will have 90M bottles per year capacity at Jasper by July.

Will give better guidance than 70-100M in a late January conference call.

250M shares diluted.

Plan to become the Arizona Iced Tea of the milk business.

Chinese proverb:

CRAMER gets a good one!  After last week's awful mine disaster, Cramer stumbled on MSA, or appropriately named, Mine Safety.  The right name at the right time. The current administration loosened safety standards in the mines and Cramer feels that they will do an about face which will boost sales for MSA.  Up 9% today.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MSA

Another one from Booya-Jim, CNXT was up 7% on huge volume.  He feels that the stock will go to $3.50.  The chart is close to a cup/handle and semis are the hot topic now.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CNXT&t=1y

From the IBD top 10 under $10, RWC was up 9% on a good analyst ranking!  Lots of good stocks have come out of that list.  Energy Company GEOI is no longer on that list because it just shot over $10!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=spil+nuan+eng+geoi+aey+rwc+hom+aob+diet+lpsn+cmed+msa+acn+cnxt+urbn+lend&d=v1

BTUI rose with the semis today – great chart – up 9%http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BTUI

ESLR up a buck – this top solar panel pick by Tobin Smith continues to rise
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ESLR

UARM up over a buck on news that Madonna will parade her flabby 47 year old butt in a pair of UA undies in her next unwatchable video.

Fiber optic company, FNSR, was up 7% for probably the same reason.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FNSR

Since it is really important for you to watch TV from your computer screen, HAUP has a nice chart and up today.  (Actually, folks are buying their $100 gizmo to watch TV on their flat screen monitors which is probably better quality than their TV's). Check it out:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HAUP&t=1y

Enough for today.  And breathe easy, I got your back.  Eugene

[boatguy]

Hello don and other BRVO fans, finally I was able to buy and drink flavoured milk here in Portugal, unfortunately it wasn't BRVO's.

Somebody else took the opportunity first (Puleva, a Spanish company)

Good luck for those who continue holding the stock, I sold with bad timing, still waiting for the January update on business and guidance.

Sold 10 cents below my buy price, now up 20 cents since I sold!! AARRGH!!!

[don]

Snocat, what conference call today?
At Yahoo news: I get:  the next news will come at the Eighth Annual ICR XChange taking place January 12-13, 2006 at the The Ritz-Carlton in Naples, Florida.
Tia, Don.

[snowcat]

It consumer conference, not a conference call, coca cola or a credit card, my bad.

SG Cowen & Co. 4th Annual Consumer Conference
Tuesday, January 10, 2006 9:00 AM ET

For replay:  http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/confLobby.zhtml?ticker=BRVO.OB&item_id=1188769

This from a message board:
I just relistened. Sounded like things are going fair but,
The financial slides did show the outstanding now at 297,000,000.
Their chartered are 300 million.
And the capacity problem is very difficult.
From browsing the RB board and a few select "membermarked" posters, there are huge requirements on Jaspers part of BRVO to add capacity.
Naturally they're hesitant to build more plants. And Hood must know they have BRVO by the balls so they'll twist a little and get 10% of the company too.  Everybody gets a piece. Those "barriers to entry" the CEO mentioned! 
If being heavily dinged by Jasper to add plants and capacity they're going to have to ask shareholders to agree to increase the chartered so they can do a secondary.

[don]

Hi Snocat: applause for those 2 posts. Good find!
Can I ask you to clarify, as I have very spotty internet speed (south Thailand) and consequently, cannot get enough download speed, this being hi-usage time, late in the evening:

Vending machines are a huge growth area. 51M potential revenue from initial rollout into 8400 CCE vending machines.
Q: is that a forecast for fiscal 2006 ? Like, did they say something like, we expect potential annual revenues from CCE rollout  to be $51M  in 2006 (or in a 12 month period) ?
Will have 90M bottles per year capacity at Jasper by July.
Q: please refer to your notes and re-confirm that the reference to July is correct - as just last week, they confirmed to me that same number, effective May?

Will give better guidance than 70-100M in a late January conference call
Q: by better do you/they mean
- a more accurate or more tight range; or
- better as in higher?
Would really appreciate anything you can add, on these 3 points. Tia, Don.

[snowcat]

1 - seems just to be a projection based on potential sales from 8400 machines - I would suspect it is the 12 mo pd. (I cannot listen to it again without falling into a coma).  I no longer have my notes and they were not great to begin with.

2 - the date is July

3- "better" I take to be more accurate.

Whatever, it did not have much positive impact on the stock and the full conference call is tomorrow and I am sure they will clarify everything.  Or not.

Anyone else want to listen and give their 2 cents?

Chinese Proverb: He who go through airport turnstile sideways is going to Bangkok.

[don]

- I cannot listen to it again without falling into a coma.
I will go get some shut-eye, with a smile......

[Fré]

I listened to the CC of today and made some calculations for 2006 and 2007 revenues. Here are the results:

2006: Revenues (domestic only) 51,75M

2007: Revenues 67,5M (Assumption that there is no increased capacity)

How did I get these numbers?

2006

Q1:
Production: 3x 2,5 (units/month)= 7.5M * $0.75 (price/unit) => 5,625M

Q2:
Production: 4,5M(april)+5,5M(may)+6.5M(june)= 16,5M * $0.75 => 12,375M

Q3 and Q4:

Production: (7,5M *3) * $0.75= 33,75M

= 51,75M.


2007:

90M units/year * $0.75= 67.5M

If they can get more production from the hood facility revenues might reach 142,5M.



These numbers are only for domestic production (don't know the revenues from international sales) and based on a $0.75 price/bottle.

Numbers for 2006 will be in the lower range of 70M - 100M, which I already supposed, but they're better than I had calculated before.

[puenthouse]

i have almost 50% of my port in brvo, so i enjoy selling above 70s and buying in 50s  i have just been able to buy more in the 50s then sell in the 70s  i have a trigger at 75.  I have no fear.  i will never sell it all.  I want BAGS.  Im sure i can get them some where faster, but i dont know where and im not going to try to go looking.  I still have confidence in this one.  It sounds like im getting to be by myself thou.  that is fine, i wont have you guys around to scare me off from the last 50 drop.  so many messages about it going to .25 did put doubt even into me.  Alteast i held it and sure enough, like CEO said, it will come up and it did.  GL fellows.  and by the way, im back in the states, so going to look for one of these slammers now

[echo]

Nice to here your safely back home Puenthouse. Good luck on your BRVO endeavours. I got out when David turned sour on the stock.

[john b mcginnis]

I'm still holding about 20% of my portfolio in BRVO. And, still believe it will be a winner! There still are a few  left holding. In @ .54 .56 and .64 Holding for the long term.

[don]

Fre, I like your work (applause)! I more or less did the same number crunching. But I went further, with share valuations based on PER and Price/sales ratios.
Here is what I got: PART 1 of 2:
               Q4/2005  Q1/06   Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06     12MOS 06        12 MOS 07
                                                                                   mill                        LO       HI
SALES       5.85         6.84    10.02  15.92  21.22         54.00                           85      170
GP % 27
GP $                                                                         14.58                    22.95     45.90
SGA                                                                            10.8                      15.0       20.0
EARNS                                                                       3.78                      7.95       25.9
EPS*                                                                          $0.015                  $0.032  $0.10
PER 40 implies a stock price of                                 $0.60                 $1.28   $4.00

ASSUMPTIONS:
                            total Capacity      capacity utilized at mills of units          Revenue $mill*
2005: OCT                 2.5                 2.67                                                           
NOV                           2.8                 2.25   (90% of capacity prev/month) 
DEC                            3.0            2.52
Q4                                                  7.44 (extrapolating sales/unit of $.786)  $5.85mill
2006 JAN                    3.3                 2.7
FEB                             3.3                3.0
MAR                           3.3            3.0
Q1                                                   8.7                                                    $6.84mill
APL                             3.3                 3.0
MAY                            7.5                 3.0
JUN                              7.5            6.75
Q2                                                   12.75                                                  $10.0mill
JULY                           7.5                  6.75
AUG                            7.5                  6.75
September                  10.0            6.75
Q3                                                    20.25                                                 $15.92mill
OCT                            10.0                  9.0
NOV                           10.0                   9.0
DEC                            10.0              9.0
Q4                                                     27.0                                          $21.22mill
2006 12 MOS                                                                                        $54.0 mill

2007
LO                             10.0/mo                                        $85.0mill                                             
HI                               15.0/mo                                                              170.0mill                                      

Sources:
GP margin %: see Q3 2005 GP is $.884mill/sales $3.245mill = 27.24%
SGA = Selling General & Admin Q3/4 $2.7/qtr = $10.8 per year
             2006 Lo - guesstimate
             2006 Hi – guesstimate
To compute value, via PER; I used a Treasury-based total stock issued of 250mill.
jan 2007 - by then, for sure, they will have bought themselves 100% more plant filling capacity (15mill/month) than they will have at May 2006 (7.5mill/month).

[don]

Here is what I got: PART 2 of 2::
when I use the term Treasury-based total stock issued of 250mill., by that I mean that you must allow for dilution for unissued stock which is obligated to be issued, but you also have to allow for the monetary value of what will come in to the company's cash chest (the share proceeds). You cannot mix cash dollars and shares. What you do is to add the number of shares to the existing number of issued and paid for, and then you deduct from that subtotal, the value of the cash received, expressed as units of shares. 250mill  is the number which the company mgt. refers to,  currently.
My alternative valuation model was to apply what was commonly observed in other public companies as a range of share price expressed as a relationship to the factor you get when you divide the total revenue by the number of shares (Sales/Revenue per share). The relationship, as most of you know, is known as the Price to Sales Ratio.
Quite frankly, I have had difficulty finding small caps in the beverage industry.
So, I settled on a range of ratios, viz: 1.5/2.5/3.0
Here is what I got:
If share cap issued, is 250million
If sales in 2006 are 54 mill, price to sales is 1.5 stock value is 81mill or $0.32 per share
If sales in 2006 are 54 mill, price to sales is 2.5 stock value is 135mill or $0.54 per share
If sales in 2006 are 54 mill, price to sales is 3.0 stock value is 162mill or $0.65 per share
2007; 108mill x3 = 324mill Divided by 300 mill shares* = tops value based on 2007 projected sales will be $1.08
* I am assuming BRVO will have to issue 50mill to finance working capital needs, receivables, prepaids and capital payments or whatever to a Hood, to achieve a 100% increase in production capacity. Would love to see some discussion of Fre's and my projections.
Disclaimer: these are my numbers and are purely speculative musings, using my professional experience, sure...But do your own due diligence and do not trade on these postings. Don.

[fill_the_gap]

Nice work, Don ! applaud. 

Added more today in anticipation of a run into the call at the end of the month.
Will probably sell right before the call.  This is a play on the buy the rumor and sell the news again. 

They still have not announced a time and date.
I expect 72-80 range into the call.  Movement beginning when they announce.

We will see.

Jeff

[Fré]

Nice work, Don ! applaud. 

Added more today in anticipation of a run into the call at the end of the month.
Will probably sell right before the call.  This is a play on the buy the rumor and sell the news again. 

They still have not announced a time and date.
I expect 72-80 range into the call.  Movement beginning when they announce.

We will see.

Jeff

Same plan here. Bought at 0.61 (while ago) and expect around 0.80 before the CC.
Then I'll sell. Will buy back at a lower price.