GNBT.OB

[tokyopua]

potential reentry target around 2$ ?

cheers
O.

I got back in at 2.08, but I also see that the breakout of the ascending triangle on the 5 minute chart today occured at 2.03, so that could be another area of support if 2.07 doesnt hold.

[la-onda]

last analyst update:

Torc Investments and Research Initiates Coverage of Generex Biotechnology With a Buy Rating and 12-Month Price Target of $3.00-$3.50

Wednesday, September 27, 2006
TORONTO--(MARKET WIRE)--Sep 27, 2006 -- Generex Biotechnology Corporation (NASDAQ:GNBT - News) announced today that Torc Investments and Research LLC, a NASD registered broker-dealer, initiated research coverage of the Company today with a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $3-$3.50.

The Report, issued by Director of Research Amanda McNamara, noted that, "The company's main product is centered on diabetes, a very lucrative and growing market where it is estimated that 350 million people worldwide will be affected by 2025 (up from 230 million currently). According to the International Diabetes Federation, every 10 seconds a person dies from diabetes-related causes where it is the fourth leading cause of death by disease globally. Many of these complications can be avoided if the disease is treated early on and diabetics were more compliant in treating their disease. As more user-friendly delivery devices for insulin enter the marketplace to replace needles, compliance should increase significantly. But such alternative delivery methods for insulin have their own setbacks...A very viable solution to such issues rests with insulin mouth sprays where insulin is delivered through the mouth and avoids the lungs."

The Report noted that, "Generex Oral-lyn is a mouth spray that allows for incremental dosing and comes in a convenient pump similar in size to a common asthma pump versus competitive inhaled insulin products that are bulky. This product is available for sale in Ecuador, a key introductory market to build momentum and brand awareness despite its small size...Although Generex has multiple products in its pipeline, the true driver of sales will stem from the success of Generex Oral-lyn. Highlighting this fact for valuation purposes, we are comparing and discounting Generex's market capitalization to MannKind Corp. since both companies target the alternative insulin delivery market and both are reliant on one main product to significantly drive sales."

The Report concluded that, "We believe a fair price target range for Generex Biotechnology Corporation over the next 12 months is $3.00 to $3.50, equating the market capitalization of GNBT to $330 million - $385 million (using an estimated average number of shares outstanding of 110 million for fiscal 2007 for GNBT). This range is less than half of MannKind's current market capitalization of $921 million but is not unreasonable due to the comparison of targeted markets. MannKind's product (Technosphere Insulin), although roughly 3 1/2 years away from possibly receiving FDA approval, targets the U.S. market that consists of approximately 23 million diabetics (20-79 age group) versus Generex's current targeted markets for Generex Oral-lyn (Mexico, Canada and Andean countries) that have approximately 18.6 million diabetics combined (same age group). Valuations applied to Generex also recognize the valuable work being done at the company's Antigen Express subsidiary as it moves forward into drug development and away from strictly working in the laboratory for various cancers."

"We are pleased that an independent research firm has recognized the value of our portfolio of products," said Anna Gluskin, President and Chief Executive Officer of Generex Biotechnology. "We believe that there exists great potential for Oral-lyn and look forward to further demonstrating our unique ability to orally deliver insulin through additional clinical activities and by entering new markets."

Link for the 16 slides pdf file:
http://www.torcinvestments.com/images/Torc-GNBT-Initial.pdf

[la-onda]

fyi:

last analyst update:

Torc Investments and Research Initiates Coverage of Generex Biotechnology With a Buy Rating and 12-Month Price Target of $3.00-$3.50

Wednesday, September 27, 2006
TORONTO--(MARKET WIRE)--Sep 27, 2006 -- Generex Biotechnology Corporation (NASDAQ:GNBT - News) announced today that Torc Investments and Research LLC, a NASD registered broker-dealer, initiated research coverage of the Company today with a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $3-$3.50.

The Report, issued by Director of Research Amanda McNamara, noted that, "The company's main product is centered on diabetes, a very lucrative and growing market where it is estimated that 350 million people worldwide will be affected by 2025 (up from 230 million currently). According to the International Diabetes Federation, every 10 seconds a person dies from diabetes-related causes where it is the fourth leading cause of death by disease globally. Many of these complications can be avoided if the disease is treated early on and diabetics were more compliant in treating their disease. As more user-friendly delivery devices for insulin enter the marketplace to replace needles, compliance should increase significantly. But such alternative delivery methods for insulin have their own setbacks...A very viable solution to such issues rests with insulin mouth sprays where insulin is delivered through the mouth and avoids the lungs."

The Report noted that, "Generex Oral-lyn is a mouth spray that allows for incremental dosing and comes in a convenient pump similar in size to a common asthma pump versus competitive inhaled insulin products that are bulky. This product is available for sale in Ecuador, a key introductory market to build momentum and brand awareness despite its small size...Although Generex has multiple products in its pipeline, the true driver of sales will stem from the success of Generex Oral-lyn. Highlighting this fact for valuation purposes, we are comparing and discounting Generex's market capitalization to MannKind Corp. since both companies target the alternative insulin delivery market and both are reliant on one main product to significantly drive sales."

The Report concluded that, "We believe a fair price target range for Generex Biotechnology Corporation over the next 12 months is $3.00 to $3.50, equating the market capitalization of GNBT to $330 million - $385 million (using an estimated average number of shares outstanding of 110 million for fiscal 2007 for GNBT). This range is less than half of MannKind's current market capitalization of $921 million but is not unreasonable due to the comparison of targeted markets. MannKind's product (Technosphere Insulin), although roughly 3 1/2 years away from possibly receiving FDA approval, targets the U.S. market that consists of approximately 23 million diabetics (20-79 age group) versus Generex's current targeted markets for Generex Oral-lyn (Mexico, Canada and Andean countries) that have approximately 18.6 million diabetics combined (same age group). Valuations applied to Generex also recognize the valuable work being done at the company's Antigen Express subsidiary as it moves forward into drug development and away from strictly working in the laboratory for various cancers."

"We are pleased that an independent research firm has recognized the value of our portfolio of products," said Anna Gluskin, President and Chief Executive Officer of Generex Biotechnology. "We believe that there exists great potential for Oral-lyn and look forward to further demonstrating our unique ability to orally deliver insulin through additional clinical activities and by entering new markets."

Link for the 16 slides pdf file:
http://www.torcinvestments.com/images/Torc-GNBT-Initial.pdf

[Melf Elf]

I assume we are going up today because of short covering, or maybe some fund has decided to buy some shares, anyone else care to hazard a guess?

tok,

I'd hazard that it was a combination of the very nice technicals that we've discussed, a nice base, and TWO bullish pattern breakouts.   

Often when that occurs, you get what's known as a technical rally, like today, with or without any news. 

[Melf Elf]

Updated:2006-10-10 08:07:39

Generex Biotechnology Announces Expansion of Glucose RapidSpray(TM) Distribution
Market Wire
TORONTO -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 10/10/06 -- Generex Biotechnology Corporation (NASDAQ: GNBT), the leader in metabolic diseases drug delivery through the inner lining of the mouth, announced today that it has filled several purchase orders from additional retail pharmacies for Glucose RapidSpray, its new over-the-counter glucose oral spray product.

Generex has filled orders for Meijer, Inc., Kerr Drug, Inc., Hy-Vee, Inc., and Fruth Pharmacy, Inc.

Current BID 2.24...ASK 2.25

[tokyopua]

I assume we are going up today because of short covering, or maybe some fund has decided to buy some shares, anyone else care to hazard a guess?

tok,

I'd hazard that it was a combination of the very nice technicals that we've discussed, a nice base, and TWO bullish pattern breakouts.   

Often when that occurs, you get what's known as a technical rally, like today, with or without any news. 

My new guess is that in addition to whay you mentioned above, there was some leak of the news we got today.  The Yahoo MBs had people saying yesterday there would be really big news today.

At HOD 2.69 as I type 

[Melf Elf]

At HOD 2.69 as I type 

Basis the weekly chart, the narrowed Kumo (Cloud) comes in this week at 2.755 - 2.775. 

[tokyopua]

Sold my whole position at 2.50 today for 77% profit.  I will look for re-entry around the gap or lower if I get the chance.  And if not, I wont complain, this has been a great ride! 

[jorgegr]

Great Toky, cant lose those profits.

[Melf Elf]

Basis the weekly chart, the narrowed Kumo (Cloud) comes in this week at 2.755 - 2.775. 

The Kumo (Cloud) was a ceiling for prices today.  The high this morning was 2.70 , just below it.

[setravis]

Out of time for tonight, will leave you the chart.

[tokyopua]

Great Toky, cant lose those profits.

Thanks, though still not sure if I did the right thing.  I would not have sold I think if the news today had been more concrete about what the new POs mean to the bottom line, and if there was no gap to be filled.  Hopefully Ramsburg gets to do an update tonight and can shed more light on what might happen.  Melf has also shown how the Kumo was the ceiling for recent prices...

[Ramsburg]

Nice trades toky you are on fire ! 

Update:
GNBT was already with an explosive momentum, so this news was like putting gasoline into a fire :
- Generex Fills Glucose RapidSpray Orders

Drug delivery technology company Generex Biotechnology Corp. said Tuesday it filled several new orders for its over-the-counter glucose oral spray product, for an undisclosed sum.

GNBT opened with a gap up and spiked to $2.70, starting to consolidate after that... The candle was kind of strange, suggesting some consolidation for the short term... It is normal to watch a sell the news movement in this case, but the news are relevant for GNBT's future, we still don't know the dimension of these new orders, but we know that the company is achieving its prospects...

Anyway, this was never a fundamental play, although we are very positive about the price development here on a mid-term approach, we are willing to give a little room, we accept a fill the gap move, but not much more than that. So we are moving our stop to a defensive level, and wait, while our expectations is to watch some consolidation and a new ride above $3.00 somewhere soon.

So the new trading plan is:

Trading Plan:
Hold GNBT with a stop @ $2.18 (and a suggested sell price above $3.00)

Regards,

[tokyopua]

Nice trades toky you are on fire ! 

Thanks Ramsburg, it has been a good month so far, trying to enjoy it while I can.  The gap filled and I am back in at 2.23 here, a little worried since the descending triangle broke on the 5 minute chart and the low had been 2.26, but I still think GNBT has long term potential, could still double yet again from here longer term.

[Ramsburg]

Update:
We just got stopped at $2.18