Stock Picks (1st Edition)

[guitarman]

1) SWC - Stillwater Mining Co

Thanks guys for pointing out my last pic (OWENQ) was OTC!

2) I'm picking this one because palladium prices have imploded (approx. from $1K/oz to $200/oz) and are starting to shoot up.
Also, last report was that geological surveys came out very positive (Trend Mining exploration results reported Oct, 31,05)
If the dollar is going to go down, this one should do very well.

"SWC mines, processes and refines palladium, platinum and related metals from a geological formation in southern Montana called the J-M Reef, which is the only major source of platinum group metals outside of South Africa & Russia. For the 6 months ended 6/30/05, revenues rose 37% to $252.8M. Net loss before accounting change totaled $1.8M, vs. an income of $21.4M. Results reflect 3 sales agreements to sell the palladium, offset by higher depreciation."

Recent T/A starting to look bullish

3) Can I get your help one more time with the chart?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=swc

[REALDEALS21]

My pick: VPHM

Reason for pick: Earnings tomorrow on 11/7/05, should beat the numbers. My pick is based on good fundamentals and technicals !

Going into the winter season, this stock should go up !

Some recent news for my pick:

NEW YORK, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Drug maker ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Thursday said it amended its manufacturing agreement with Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to increase its supply of the antibiotic Vancocin to treat intestinal bacteria.
ViroPharma said it will pay Lilly up to $4.5 million in addition to the original contract price through early 2006.
The Exton, Pennsylvania-based company said its future annual forecast for 2006 will reflect the expanded investment.
ViroPharma, which bought Vancocin from Lilly in December, said Lilly agreed to continue manufacturing the drug at least through Sept. 30, 2006, while ViroPharma transitions to a third-party supply chain.
While the current supply contract was sufficient to meet demand, ViroPharma said it wants to establish a stock inventory of the drug as a precautionary measure in case the incidence and severity of the bacterial infections continue to increase at a higher-than-expected rate.
Vancocin, which had $28.8 million in sales during the second quarter, is used in hospitals to treat staphyloccal enterocolitis and pseudomembranous colitis, bacterial infections that sometimes occur after treatment with antibiotics and cause diarrhea.

[KCScott]

Mattel MAT

Heading into the Xmas season, I like the cyclical play (As a dad, I know I'm spending a lot on toys) and this constitutes a value play with a forward PE of 13.7

Technically, I picked MAT beacuse of it's recent bounce off it's 52 week low (Yes the Monday Nov. 7 Buy in price is attractive) and I look for the Gap to be filled based on the Momentum run off the 60 day EMA



Since this game only runs for this month, someone already picked CKCM, and it's late on Sunday night it was either this or Tyson Foods 

[lbotez]

My stock pick is:  SNTO


Charts:

2 year weekly chart



This chart shows that this stock was up to 17.89 in March.  Stock is now at 7.05. 

Green trend lines show a top of 12.50.  Blue Andrews Pitchfork shows mid-tyne at a little under 15, and top tyne of fork at over 20. Other indicators look good with plenty of room for MACD and ADX +D1 to go up.

Daily chart



Nice shart trend up, notice solid green uptrend line and newer green dash uptrend line to take its place.  This stock runs with the 9 day ema.  Good volume candles.  Looks somewhat overbought, but should go higher. Maybe a small pullback, but I expect this to keep trending up.


60-minute Chart




Trend is shown well on this 60 minute chart. Trend line is moving straight up, and Andrew's Pitchfork continuing along. Notice candles falling in line with the bottom of the blue Pitchfork. Plenty of room on the ADX and MACD. Indicators turned up.


Nice volume candles at Friday's close.  Normally, stocks don't close strong on a Friday. Perhaps it was shorts closing their positions.


P&F Chart



what can I say?  Bullish price:  14.75


Fundies:

This stock is in a position of having been a loser for over a year, but now it has hit the bottom of the that trend, and is now advancing up. 

This stock has all the major ingredients of a stock that is undervalued and has put in good earnings and is in the position of running up real hard.

Listen to their CC: http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/9/61569.html

In case you don't know, this is a call center company.

This has a low float.

They got A+ on accumulation on IBD

They will be hiring 600 people

If you do you will learn that they have 6 new contracts, one is Overstock, one is Lenscrafters, and one is a unknown billion dollar company (my guess, McDonalds, or someone like that, who doesn't want any publicity).  There are 3 more to come, and will be announced by PR's.

They were losing money until recently.  They had an acquisition and restructing which dropped them down from the last high, but now they are in the money.  The company posted 8 cents profit vs. a loss of 15 cents a year ago, and a loss of 44 cents last quarter. They announced they are returning to profitability two quarters earlier than expected. Their gross margins are up 19.9%, an increase of 120% quarter over quarter.  No planned acquisitions. Low long term debt and some cash. Guidance was not given, but they said they will make more than .08 next quarter.  They expect accelerating earnings going forward.


This stock is a hidden gem. Should really take off. 

[defenderyou]

My stock pick is BMD: Birch Mountain Resources. A small company engages in the exploration of industrial minerals in Canada. It owns approximately 402,965 hectares of mineral property in Athabasca and Birch Mountains, Alberta. The company also engages in the research and development of naturally occurring precious and nonprecious metal microparticles and nanoparticles. Birch Mountain was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada. What makes them interesting is they serviceAthabasca oil sands, providing infrastructureto and from the region, thus it is an ancillary play not necessarily tied to the price of oil. The oil-sands of Canada will be developed and its importance will grow exponetially. Technically, the chart is beautiful. Every one to two months it has been hitting new highs, by moving up with a large white candle and then progressively moving higher by 25% to 100%. The last high unitl recently was 5.72 in early October an just last week it has had thre white candles in a row reaching another new high of 5.93 on Friday, the 4th. I expect we will see 6.50 to 7.50 yb early December before the usual flatlining begins.

I have never added a chart before so I I have been reading on how to do it - I dont kno if this will work but I am going to attach a png file below - here goes:

[catrader]

1)  My pick is gnbt which is GenerexBiotech Corp in Nasdaq

2)  Why do i pick gnbt?  Well it is a stock that deals with something that is in the news every day as of late, the possible Avian Bird Flu outbreak.  But not only that, it has more products in its pipeline.  On of them is Oralin, which is a proprietary insulin formulation used for diabetes management. Its Oralin product is delivered through RapidMist device, which is used to administer large molecule drugs, including proteins, peptides, monoclonal antibodies, hormones, and vaccines. It also conducts research and development of technologies and immunomedicines for the treatment of malignant, infectious, autoimmune, and allergic diseases. So the main reason is because it can be a product to be utilized to combat avian flu.  Also chart looks like nvax in the early stages.  As you remember that stock did like a 4x advance. Also it has been before senators seeking support for the accelerated development of its novel vaccine for H5N1 avian influenza.  So it that happens, it hink stock can fly.

3) here is the chart for gnbt  

[VikingFan]

My pick is ORCT (Orckit Communications Ltd)

Orckit is an Israeli company that sells communications equipment internationally.  Since transitioning to focus on "Triple Play" communications gear, they've only had 1 main customer, KDDI in Japan, which allows a service provider (i.e., telecomm or cable) to offer voice, data, and video together across networks.  Here's a businessweek article discussing how the "Triple Play" is the big trend in the industry:  http://yahoo.businessweek.com/investor/content/nov2005/pi2005114_7121_pi044.htm

In July, ORCT fell from over $28 after guiding Q3 EPS to .23 vs. analyst estimates of .25.  It broke its uptrend and subsequently drifted down to the 20 area ahead of the Q3 report.  On 10/21, it broke 20 support and on 10/24 made a new low at 17.77.  After a bounce, on Thursday, 10/27, ORCT broke that new 17.77 support, triggering stops and massive selling.  Rumors circulated about them losing their one customer, Israel being attacked by Iran, or them missing EPS badly.  On record volume of over 3.5 million shares, ORCT sold down as low as 12.22, $7 below the previous close.  In retrospect, that was a climactic, capitulation panic selloff.

On Monday morning, 10/31, ORCT announced blowout earnings of .30 (excluding a one-time capital gain), well above what analysts had predicted before the selloff from over $28.  In addition, they mentioned they had begun shipments to a U.S. telecom carrier, though no revenues were included in the Q3 report.  Also, they upped Q4 guidance to .41 vs. .33 estimates, resulting in full year guidance of $1.11 (excluding the one-time gain).  They upped 2006 guidance to $1.50, more than 35% growth over 2005.  On the conference call, they indicated that these numbers were based only on existing customers, and any new customers would be addtional to these estimates.  They also hinted at several potential new customers, particularly in Asia.  Finally, they announced that they'd paid off all of their debt.

So ORCT dropped from $28+ down to $12.22 after disappointing guidance, and subsequently blew out the original estimates while mentioning a new U.S. customer (not yet formally announced separately nor reflected in earnings) and upping guidance significantly, yet the stock still sits under $22, almost 25% lower than before all of this improvement in fundamentals.  The jump from 12.22 back over $20 in just 2 days attracted a large number of shorts.  Despite the jump, ORCT has consolidated in the 20-22 area the last week.  With the capitulation selloff behind it, many new shorts who will have to cover, and fundamentals pointing to a much higher price, ORCT looks like a tremendous bargain.  Even a conservative 30 PE on 2006 earnings for the 35% growth would put ORCT at $45, more than double the current price.  Any new customers would increase those numbers.  With a recent history of being very conservative on guidance and then blowing out estimates, ORCT has huge upside.

Many analysts from many firms were on the earnings call, but only one (RBC's Daniel Meron) has been covering it. That one had a target of $34 before earnings, and likely will increase that substantially after the large increase in guidance. Other firms should initiate coverage soon after establishing their position.

[Terliso]

1)   Stock Pick:  BOOM (Dynamic Materials Corp.)

2)   Reason behind this pick:
      We all know that BOOM is growing rapidly, Decreased their debt  & mosf of all they will
      report their 3Q earnings on tuesday. i'm expecting the company will give a good  number. 
      BOOM is been trading in rectangle pattern for sometime now, the 52 week high is 26.25 is not too far away from the close last friday @ 25.50. i have a feeling BOOM will reach new high on tuesday morning. happy trading

Dynamic Materials Sets Date for Third Quarter Earnings Announcement:

BOULDER, Colo., Oct. 25 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Dynamic Materials Corporation (DMC) (Nasdaq: BOOM - News), the world's leading provider of explosion-welded clad metal plates and associated services, today announced that it intends to issue its third quarter financial results before the stock market opens on Tuesday, November 8, 2005.


3)   Stock Chart:

[actrader]

1)  SMTX  (SMTC CORP)

2)  A former 3sof pick.  Company swung to a profit from a loss last quarter.  Started a restructuring, refinancing, and a new focus on operations in 2004.  Management is focused on improving the balance sheet, paying down debt, and improving growth and profitability.  

Reports earnings on November 14.  If results are as management predicted, then they should post another profitable quarter.  Hopefully SANM's earnings preview things to come for SMTX's upcoming quarter.

Technically, stock has held steady above 2.10 after the last breakout.  New to TA, but seems to have broken out of a descending wedge and has slowly trended higher in anticipation of earnings.  Stock could double from current levels if earnings are good.

Profile:  SMTC Corporation provides electronics manufacturing services to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) primarily in North America, Europe, Asia, and Mexico. Its services comprise product development, which include product design, prototyping, and qualification testing; product assembly and test services; and interconnect, which consists of design, development, and manufacture of interconnect assemblies, such as optical and electrical cable and harness assemblies. The company also offers sheet metal fabrication services used in the assembly of a range of electronic enclosures. It offers its services to OEMs in the industrial, enterprise computing and networking, and communications sectors.

[tdot36]

SIRIUS Sat Radio  Ticker SIRI

I think the market is underestimating the loyalty of the average Howard Stern Listener.
He will be off regular radio and will be exlusively on Sirius starting in Jan, milions of new subscribers will follow.

[ScottishTrader]

My pick is CNXT - Conexant Systems

Conexant is another 3SOF pick, and quite frankly (having posted quite late before the beginning of the competition) I'm amazed no-one beat me to it 

Conexant just broke out of a major ascending triangle pattern, which has been building for the last 6 months after hitting all time lows under 1.00 in May.  The technical target of this ascending triangle breakout is around 2.95, but what really interests me about this chart is the huge gap that can be seen on the 2 year chart, when CNXT gapped down from over $4 to $2.60 over the 4th of July weekend in 2004 (can't have been a nice holiday for shareholders that one ).  Now CNXT is riding high on this breakout wave at present, and while analysts and some guy named Cramer think it should reach 2.50, I have a sneaking suspicion thatt it could run much higher.  2.50 is real close to the bottom of that huge gap, and I think that if it can break that key level in the next couple of weeks, it could really run.

Every tecchnical indicator and analysis site I could find (e.g. http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=CNXT&num1=3&cobrand=&mode=stock) shows CNXT as being extremely bullish, and confirms that this breakout is for real (but you just need to look at the chart to figure that one out).

Fundamentally, (and I don't know too much about it on this side), CNXT recently reported better-than-expected earnings, beating concesus estimates of a 2c a share loss, and showing that they returned to profitability a quarter earlier than anticipated.  This bodes well for them, and clearly shows that their turnaround strategy is producing results.  I think that this move is set to continue, and with further strengthening, could very well return to the level it held in the first half of 2004.

[madge20]

Satcon Tech    SATC

SatCon Technology Corporation engages in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of power and energy management products for digital power markets worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Power Systems, Electronics, and Applied Technology. The Power Systems segment offers power solutions, shaker vibration test systems, magnetic levitation systems, industrial automation motors, rotary uninterruptible power supply systems, machine tool motors, and power conditioning systems.

With ongoing war in IRAQ and instability in many regions of the world this is a small growing concern that manufacturers demand power use items for the military.. The share price is becoming mor attractive to institutions and I see that increasing. The stock price is now bouncing off a double bottom and I see the possibility of a double in the next 30 days..

Ticker:       
SATC

I tried copying but with no luck off of stock charts.. Can someone go in and add the chart to my post? Thanks in advance..

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

[Lucas Scott]

My pick is GTE

OK I'm pissed off because I just spent a half hour typing up a long essay about my pick and then when I clicked "post" I got the error message "file size too big" because of the chart picture I had tried to attach. I clicked the link I was provided to return to my message and everything I had typed was gone. So I will type a SHORT summary because I have to get to bed.

Technicals: Broke descending trendline in mid-Oct. Rallied from $1.60 (trendline b.o. point) to high of $2.40 b4 retracing to current pps 1.80's. Consolidation pattern = Bullish flag . 20ema/center BB at 1.82. With Friday close @ 1.87, we are right near a good entry point IMO. Another 50% move like the 1.60-2.40 move is what I'd like to see. 200 sma is just north of 2.80 and that's my target.

Fundamentals: Nothing compelling here. They pay $1 for every $1 of revenue. Throwback to the dot-bomb era. What drives this stock is news about their Stratellite program. The Stratellite is an airship kinda like a blimp that theoretically could hover in the stratosphere and serve a a giant telecommunications hub for a large state or a small country. News is unpredictable, but I sure would appreciate some news in the next 3 weeks to give me a shot at winning this contest!

So I checked my chart size and it is 131 kb, which is 3 kb more than the limit. Unbelievable. My last post got destroyed b/c of 3 kilobytes? I don't know whether to LOL or COL (cry out loud). Since I have no idea how to shave 3 kilobytes off a picture I will just have post a link --> http://tinyurl.com/9ktey

Thanks and GO GTE!!!!
Luke Q

[metro]

Warning – spoiler below (put there due to suggestions in rules)

Pick MII -  MicroIslet, Inc

When this contest was announced there was plenty of time so I did not give it much thought and forgot about it until this morning seeing the email about it. There is only a couple of hours and it is daytime here and I have things to do so not so much time to pick.

Well – a lot of stocks doubled or more in the last month and you have to figure that many will do it this month also. Whether one of the picks here will double or more is not known but I must for the sake of competition figure at least one of the picks will do 50-100% so how can I find a stock that can do that in the next few minutes? I can't in all likelihood but I ought to go on the board with something just for the sport of it.

I looked at MII a biotech that has been playing 50-200 pinball in the last month bouncing between those two EMAs and now at the trend line also so has decent odds it will break higher and maybe test its 2.80 recent high but that is only a 40% move if it works and it has yet to break above the trend.

So instead lets for fun use a similar symbol for the pick XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Delete delete delete

Oh oh --- I had my whole piece written on a stock but then checked rules on another matter and see I cannot use it as it is now under $1. Shucks.

Now I really have no time so to do something I may as well put in MII as it is trading at $2 even and has an averge volume of 105k shares so meets the criteria. The problem is I cannot see anything major to move it up 100% in a month but let's see if we can get it at least to break above the trend line and maybe try for the September high.

Here is what MoneyCentral says about them:

MicroIslet, Inc. is a biotechnology company engaged in the research, development and commercialization of technologies in the field of transplantation therapy for people with insulin-dependent diabetes. The Company's islet transplantation technology, licensed from Duke University, includes methods for isolating, culturing, cryopreservation and immuno-protection (microencapsulation) of islet cells. MicroIslet intends to seek United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for and bring to market a first product called MicroIslet-P, which will be an injectable suspension of microencapsulated porcine islet cells for the treatment of insulin-dependent diabetes. MicroIslet-P is intended to be administered into the patient's abdominal cavity, where the transplanted islet cells will produce insulin in response to increases in blood glucose, much like the patient's original pancreatic islet cells that have been destroyed by disease.

----------
They have no sales or income but they have hope. In October they get a three-year $1.7 million grant from National Institutes of Health. As it is 3 year maybe nothing will happen too soon but I do not have long to submit this. The stock held on the pullback both time at the 200-day EMA and this is also the 62% retrace so pretty good support.

Unless I really plan to get into a stock to hold for many months or years I try not to do to much research and instead rely charts as for me knowing too much about a company can keep me in the stock even if the charts tell me to get out.

Maybe next time I will take some time to find a better one but this at least has support not far away so a stop loss could be but under there and the chart is decent.

I hope all have fun and make money on their picks.




Here is a link to a live chart of it so you can track the fantastic gains over the coming month

http://tinyurl.com/7w44q


(Lucas - as a long shot I also thought of GTE as if their blimp ever gets off the ground the price could do the same. I only while writing see your post below - hope it does well)

[small_investor]

AXYX - AXONYX INC. that´s my pick for the next month

Something about AXYX:

Axonyx Inc. is a U.S.-based biopharmaceutical company engaged in the acquisition and development of proprietary pharmaceutical compounds for the treatment of Central Nervous System disorders. The Company currently has three compounds in development for Alzheimer's disease, namely Phenserine - a potential symptomatic and disease progression treatment of mild to moderate Alzheimer's Disease (AD), Posiphen(TM) - a potential disease progression treatment for AD and BisNorCymcerine (BNC) - a potential symptomatic treatment of severe AD.

My opinion to AXYX:

massive undervalued, have a look to their cash position. Hope we hear some news after the roadshow...


The chart: ... not very friendly..