Stock Trading Basics to Swing Trading

[luka]

Under a scenario where the silver ETF is approved in the next few weeks, "silver will surpass $12 by late spring and be near $20 by year end," said PM Financial Services' Mladjenovic.
Looking even further ahead, "silver will be in the $20-$35 range by mid-2007 and hit $50 by early 2008. By 2009-2011, silver has a realistic shot at surpassing $100," he said.
Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

no comments...

[gambler2075]

Hey man... even though I don't post on this thread, I still read it, and I appreciate the fact that you are helping out the newbies...

I still remember what was probably the worst trade I ever made... buying into the CRA hype way back when it was 100+$ (2000) and getting crushed like 1500$ in a day... that hurt alot.

got suckered into the hype...

I think the thing that helped me the most was realizing that with trading, if you are going long you always have to enter a stock for a reason. If you try to buy momo, realize that many other traders who are more experienced and have better tools (and have been doing it alot longer, and I daresay are better than you are) are looking to sell to you. You might just be "the greatest fool" in this case (look up "greater fool theory" on google if you don't know what I mean).

So I realized the hard way that I suck at momo trading, and I try to stay away from it. Unfortunately, it took me a long time to come to this conclusion. (Started trading in 2000, and spent anywhere from 3 hours to 8 hours every single day reading, looking at charts)... Unfortunately, I still make some of the same mistakes I used to, but I am getting better.

Enough rambling... Thanks for the effort you are putting into your thread.

g

p.s. to the newbies: Do not be suckered into thinking you can give up your day job and become a full-time trader if you have a run of good luck. To me, trading is still a hobby. A very time-intensive hobby, and I am still not sure that I can reliably turn a profit year after year. So I still have a real job. That's kind of why I chose the nickname "Gambler" in order to remind myself every time I log in that trading is just a hobby and I could lose it all at any time. Good luck to all.

[fill_the_gap]

Livelife,

Congratulations for sticking with GZFX.  It has not been easy.

Monday should pay some dividends.

It has been great discussing it with you for the past several months.

Now is the time to make some money trading GZFX.

[LiveLife]

Thanks gambler2075 for your comments and sharing of your experience.  I am sure all of us have our share of "bad" trade stories. 

Fill_the_gap, you the man!  You held fast through the rise/fall cycles of GZFX and believed in the nationwide rollout.  Good job.

Yes, I believe next week will be very good for GZFX as the Circuit City rollout news was released after trading was close on Friday.

To those new to penny stocks, a lot of pennies do not even have a product or service they are marketing.  GameZnFlix actually have a national DVD movie/console game renter service with Circuit City and have increased the number of distribution centers to handle the increase in volume.  In addition, GameZnFlix has other pipelines in the works such as download model for media contents (future of movie renter) such as movies, music and books.  As you can read from the 3SOF Penny GZFX MB, GameZnFlix also has a deal working with AAFE and the US military:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2047.615#bot

[fill_the_gap]

Livelife,

You are incredible with TA.

What do you see as the key resistance and support levels tomorrow?

Thank you in advance. 

[LiveLife]

Thank you fill_the_gap for your comments.

But remember, the stock trading templates are to be used as a general guide only.  There are many other factors that affect stock prices such as company fundamentals, product line developments, new patents and trademarks, and mergers, etc. 

As to GZFX resistance and support, barchart.com has resistance set at $0.0098 with support of $0.0074.  http://quotes.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=gzfx

This morning, I had a discussion with my dad about GZFX.  I told him that if they released the nationwide rollout news on Friday, they must have known it on March 15th.  Why didn't they release the news on March 15th or soon after that?  I mentioned to him that perhaps this delay would allow the price of GZFX to drop even more when those anticipating the nationwide rollout news got impatient and sold.  If you are wanting to pick up more shares, this drop would allow you to buy more shares at lower prices.  Heck, call me suspicious, but with recent "stock manipulations" going on by hedge fund managers, I am more inclined to believe in such allegations.

I pondered this issue all day today.  Whatever the reason for the delay in announcement, it may have benefitted GZFX technicals.  How?  If you look at the chart for March 15th, the MACD had peaked on March 6th and was going positive to negative.  As of Friday, the MACD was in the negative territory and RSI had already bottomed at 40.

Releasing the news on Friday after trading would start a gain cycle for GZFX with MACD bottoming and RSI continuing the rebound from 40.  If the profit taking doesn't happen until RSI 70-80+, then the timing of the news release would be in line with the stock technicals.

Could this be the case?  We may never know.  But the good news is that the timing of Circuit City nationwide rollout could not have been better for stock technicals.  This is the "big" news that everyone who has tracked this stock has been waiting for.

I anticipate that short-term gains will easily exceed $0.02 - $0.05 range, possibly even higher with the following.  What will really help GameZnFlix at this point is an advertising campaign as simple as some online ads (like in Yahoo) or some key TV spots.  Future positive quarterly reports indicating increasing number of subscribers will push the stock price possibly even higher.

For Monday and rest of this week as the market learns of the Circuit City nationwide rollout with GameZnFlix and as the word spreads, it will be exciting.

[LiveLife]

= Stock Manipulation Lawsuit Update =

I watched the 60 Minutes segment on stock manipulation lawsuit against the largest US hedge fund SAC by a large Canadian pharmaceutical company Biovail (BVF:NYSE), the maker of very popular drugs such as Wellbutrin, Cardizem, Vasotec, Vaseretic, Zovirax, Ativan and Isordil.

The lawsuit alleges that the hedge fund SAC told a stock analysis and reporting group Camelback (Now known as  Gradient) to write negative articles about Biovail because the SAC hedge fund was "shorting" the stock.  The articles Camelback wrote on behalf of SAC resulted in Biovail stock price falling from $50 to $20.

The SEC is investigating the allegation against SAC and all hedge funds.  Because the hedge funds are under very little regulations right now, in the future, more stringent regulations may apply to hedge funds.


Watching this 60 Minutes segment made be ponder about GNBT.  What happened on last trading hour on this past Wednesday prompted me to post that I was "suspicious" about what happened.  The SmartMoney article released on Friday afternoon (4:44 PM EST) saying generally negative things about the Avian stocks made me even more suspicious.

Generex has been the victim of stock manipulations by shorting hedge fund managers before.  And more I researched, the more it was indicative of stock manipulation by hedge fund managers.  Could the SmartMoney article be similar in case like the SAC vs. Biovail?  Was SmartMoney article "driven" by the hedge fund managers?  Could be.

If you think about it, the Avian Bio-tech sector as a whole experienced some great gains this year.  If the hedge funds took positions in Avian plays and was part of the 100%-400%+ gains, then they may be taking short positions now and spreading negative information, such as the SmartMoney article to drive the Avian stock prices down.  Could be.

I am glad that at least on the Yahoo MB, this suspicion of stock manipulation seemed to have been uncovered and the sentiment changed from panic to confident.  I am glad that the SEC is investigating the hedge funds manipulating stocks and hope for tighter regulations for the hedge funds.


Here's the repost of $16 million settlement of previous Generex case:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/stocks/brokerages/10273590.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Hedge Fund Shells Out in Shorting Probe
By Matthew Goldstein
Senior Writer
3/14/2006 2:19 PM EST

... Securities regulators, in a civil complaint filed in federal court as part of the settlement, charged Thorp with carrying out an illegal short-selling scheme involving 23 separate PIPE deals from 2000 to 2002. Regulators allege Thorp profited by engaging in "naked shorting,'' a manipulative practice that enables traders to defy the laws of supply and demand by shorting even when no shares are available to borrow.

In all, the SEC contends, Thorp generated $7 million in illicit profits from his illegal shorting scheme. As part of the settlement, Thorp agreed to forfeit those profits, plus $1.8 million interest. Thorp and his Langley Partners hedge fund agreed to pay $8 million in civil penalties.

The unlawful trading by Thorp, who could not be reached for comment, took place in PIPE deals by a number of well-known biotech firms: AVI BioPharma (AVII:Nasdaq), MGI Pharma (MOGN:NYSE) and Generex Biotechnology (GNBT:Nasdaq). Other PIPEs that regulators allege Thorp manipulated were ones by HealthExtras (HLEX:Nasdaq) and TiVo (TIVO:Nasdaq)...

[LiveLife]

Here's a repost regarding GNBT:

= Confirmation!!! =

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.c662e32b6ef71c96bb09d6e4c0cc7a7fbe219d082c2c1b714326334ac8f8f672

Friday , March 24, 2006 16:18 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Generex Biotechnology Corporation (NasdaqSC: GNBT) INCREASED 46.6% to 2,593,556 shares for the month ended mid-March, 2006.

SYMBOL          FEBRUARY           MARCH          CHANGE       %CHANGE  DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
GNBT           1,768,736       2,593,556        +824,820       +46.63%           1

Based on GNBT's 20-day average daily share volume of 19,794,915, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

[joet]

Hello all, To those following GZFX and planning to buy in the morning (monday) i am expecting a gap up and am wondering how high people are willing to pay for this one at this point.  I have an order in for .0091 and will bump it up to .01 if i have to, but feel that that is my limit to add at this point... I have a bag of .017 shares... thoughts...
where did folks see that 25 mill shares would be sold?
GZFX has about 3.3Billion shares out there!... For comparison USXP has almost 6 billion shares and had a recent run from under .01 to almost .04!!!!  We could see a 3 bagger on GXFX. i just need to decide how high i am willing to buy more at in the morning...  This discipline thing gets tough  
Cheers Joe

[pompano]

I bet most  are keeping their plans pretty tight to the vest.  GL

[LiveLife]

For those that requested the "blank" reposts of the Short/Mid-Term and Rotational Swing Trading Templates, here they are:

[LiveLife]

joet, it is uncertain at this point what GZFX will do at market open or pre-market.

[fill_the_gap]

Live Life, thank you and applaud ! 

[LiveLife]

Wow, Generex management speaks!

Sale of Oral-lyn will start in April and nice response to Friday's inaccurate SmartMoney article confirming the "stock manipulation" by hedge fund managers and the Sunday's 60 Minutes story on stock manipulation lawsuit between SAC hedge fund and Biovail.

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060327/0114646.html

Generex Biotechnology Announces Successful Equipment & Filling Line Installation for Commencement of Generex Oral-Lyn(TM) Commercial Production
Monday March 27, 7:30 am ET

Company Also Comments on Factual Inaccuracies in Story on Internet Site

TORONTO--(MARKET WIRE)--Mar 27, 2006 -- Generex Biotechnology Corporation (NasdaqSC:GNBT - News), a leader in the area of buccal drug delivery, today announced the successful completion of the delivery and installation of a turnkey Generex Oral-lyn(TM) filling operation at the facilities of PharmaBrand, S.A. (www.pharmabrand.com.ec) in Quito, Ecuador. PharmaBrand is the Company's joint venture partner for the commercialization of Generex Oral-lyn in Latin America. Generex Oral-lyn is the Company's proprietary oral insulin spray product which is designed to replace prandial subcutaneous injections of insulin by delivering insulin into the human body via a spray applied to the buccal mucosa using the Company's proprietary RapidMist(TM) device.

A regulatory compliance and quality control team from Generex will attend at the PharmaBrand facilities early next month to assist in the training of PharmaBrand personnel in respect of the operation of the filling equipment. The Company anticipates that the first commercial production run of 50,000 canisters of Generex Oral-lyn will be completed in April, 2006. Prior to the commencement of that production run, PharmaBrand will have completed the training of its sales force in respect of the new diabetes treatment paradigm offered by Generex Oral-lyn's safe, simple, fast, effective, familiar, and pain-free alternative to prandial insulin injections for patients with either Type-1 or Type-2 diabetes.

The Generex team will also undertake an evaluation of the PharmaBrand manufacturing facilities with a view to assessing the prospect of utilizing those facilities for the production of proteins and peptides to support ongoing research and development in respect of the Antigen Express immunotherapeutic vaccines program.

The Company also responded to a story which appeared on an Internet site Friday afternoon that contained factual inaccuracies. The article referred to the Company's "financial struggles." As indicated in the Company's Form 10-Q Quarterly Report for the fiscal quarter ended January 31, 2006, Generex had cash and short-term investments in excess of $21 million as of January 31, 2006. As at the close of business on March 24, 2006, the Company had cash and short-term investments in excess of $41 million, the strongest financial condition in the Company's history.

The article states that "for the past year, Generex hasn't been able to pay off its debt." That statement is false.

The article states that Generex failed to repay two promissory notes and that "[a]s a result the noteholders (sic) were allowed to convert the debt" into shares of common stock. That statement is false. Had the author reviewed the terms of the debt, he would have seen that the conversion entitlements were included in the promissory notes from the outset. The promissory notes were not repaid in cash on the maturity dates in the context of then on-going negotiations in respect of related transactions. The author states that "Generex also agreed to such terms with other lenders." That is another false statement.

The author makes derisive reference to the Company's losses. Generex is a development stage biotechnology corporation; accordingly, its function has been to spend money on research and development activities which expenditures are recorded as losses. He fails to mention that all of the other small biotechnology companies in the article incurred substantial losses for similar reasons. The author is correct, however, when he makes reference to the Company's expectation of receiving revenue from the sale of Generex Oral-lyn(TM), the Company's proprietary oral insulin spray product, by August, 2006.

The author states that Generex is "a stock that faces the threat of delisting." That statement is false. On November 15, 2005, the Company announced that it had received written confirmation from the Nasdaq Stock Market that the Company had achieved compliance with the continued listing requirements in accordance with Nasdaq Marketplace Rule 4310(c)(4). At the present time, Generex very comfortably meets all of the Nasdaq Stock Market quantitative continued listing requirements.

The article is correct when it states that the Antigen Express avian flu vaccine is in pre-clinical development (following a pre-IND meeting with the FDA on February 10, 2006) and that the Antigen Express breast cancer vaccine is in Phase 1 human clinical trials (at Walter Reed Army Medical Center).

"We do not seek to discourage critical review; however, we consider that such review should be based on accurate facts," stated Anna Gluskin, Generex's President & Chief Executive Officer. "The Company made its executives available for the author to speak with. Unfortunately, whatever his underlying motives were, he chose to misstate and distort the facts thereby portraying the Company in an unjustifiably negative manner."

[LiveLife]

More GameZnFlix info at 3SOF penny GZFX MB:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2047.new#new


Form 8-K for GAMEZNFLIX INC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GZFX.OB

27-Mar-2006

Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement, Amendments to Articles of Inc. or Byla


ITEM 1.01 ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT

On March 22, 2006, the Company entered into a definitive Co- Marketing Agreement with Circuit City Stores, Inc. (see Exhibit 10). In the fourth calendar quarter of 2005, the two companies tested offering the GameZnFlix services at a limited number of Circuit City Superstores and online at circuitcity.com. After concluding the tests, the services will now be expanded under the Co-Marketing Agreement to include Circuit City Superstores across the United States and will continue to be available nationwide on Circuit City's website. The agreement calls for adding locations each month until full deployment is reached prior to the 2006 holiday season.

The agreement calls for a nationwide rollout of GameZnFlix's service by offering prepaid service cards at each of Circuit City's retail stores. Under the terms of this agreement, the parties will share in the revenue from the sale of Company memberships through Circuit City.

Attached is a press release issued in connection with this agreement (see Exhibit 99).