SWIR

[David Randolph]

Everything is going as planned, no reason to change it:

1) Take profits at the technical target of the breakout, which is $15.97
2) Use the ascending trendline as protection, for today it is standing at $12.18.

[David Randolph]

SWIR is a technical trade. That means I bought the stock exclusively because of a chart pattern, which in this case is the ascending triangle pattern. I wish Ramsburg had brought «Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns» to the office, so I could see statistics for the accuracy of this pattern (Bulkowski did this).

My stock market books are already here (about 100), but he didn't bring his (he has about 100 too, some are the same). I'll call him later so he won't forget this.

Anyway, I'm trading based on an ascending triangle breakout. My safety net rises a bit everyday, so my risk is being diminished and the target remains the same.

At this moment the trading plan is:

1) Take profits at the technical target of the breakout, which is $15.97
2) Use the ascending trendline as protection, for today it is standing at $12.37.

[David Randolph]

SWIR is coming down and there's nothing I can do but to respect the plan. The plan initially had a risk and a reward. That risk is being lowered everyday but the expected reward is the same.

Today is an holyday in Portugal (we got 23 holydays per year, can you imagine that  ) so I'm not at the office, I'm at home, where there are no stock market books (I wonder if Ramsburg took Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns to the office, let me write him another message requesting the book).

The plan is:

1) Take profits at the technical target of the breakout, which is $15.97
2) Use the ascending trendline as protection, for today it is standing at $12.45.

[David Randolph]

Unfortunately SWIR had to come down to touch the ascending trendline. It didn't quite touch it, it missed for 5 cents, but we can't be milimetrical with these things.

Volume picked up a bit, signaling the presence of a support area. SWIR needs to bounce of this support area, if it breaks, according to plan, I'll be forced to sell it.

The ascending trendline for today stands at $12.52, if SWIR is set to close above this, I'll hold it, if not, I'll sell it.

[David Randolph]

Two nice things for SWIR today, the stock indeed rebound from support levels and Ramsburg brought encyclopedia of chart patterns 

The book says the ascending triangle pattern has a failure rate of 32% but that decreases dramatically if one waits for an upside breakout like we did on SWIR, to a failure rate of 2%.

The percentage of a throwback to the breakout point is 58%, so the latest down move from SWIR was to be expected. The good news is that when the pattern is confirmed and a throwback was successful, the chances of the stock hitting the technical target are 89%.

He also says volume should be low after the breakout ...

This way, according to Bulkowski, we have an 89% chance of selling SWIR at $15.97.

The trading plan remains:

1) Take profits from SWIR at $15.97.
2) Sell if the stock is set to close below the ascending trendline, for today standing at $12.57.

[David Randolph]

Nothing new on SWIR, just keep the plan:

1) Take profits at $15.97.
2) Sell if the stock is set to close below the ascending trendline, for today standing at $12.67.

[David Randolph]

SWIR made another exact touch on the ascending trendline, which yesterday was at $12.67, the low of the day. The stock bounced from the support level again, now we need a strong white marubozu to put everything in place and set SWIR to reach its technical target of $15.97.

I'll continue with my plan:

1) Take profits at $15.97.
2) Sell if the stock is set to close below the ascending trendline, for today standing at $12.74.

[David Randolph]

Unfortunately I had to sell SWIR yesterday before the close, according to plan. The selling price was $12.25, I took a small 3.85% loss.

Ramsburg will put it on the closed trades table next.

Good luck for anyone that will continue holding.

[la-onda]

just fyi:
Sierra Wireless "sector perform," target price raised

Thursday, February 01, 2007 2:41:42 AM ET
RBC Capital Markets
NEW YORK, February 1 (newratings.com) - Analyst Mike Abramsky of RBC Capital Markets maintains his "sector perform" rating on Sierra Wireless (SWIR.NAS), while raising his estimates for the company. The target price has been raised from $14 to $15.
In a research note published yesterday, the analyst mentions that the company is likely to report its 4Q06 EPS in-line with the consensus. Sierra Wireless is expected to issue healthy guidance for 1Q, the analyst says. The company remains an attractive acquisition target, RBC Capital Markets adds. The EPS estimate for 2007 has been raised from $0.43 to $0.46.

&

Sierra Wireless "hold," estimates raised
Thursday, February 01, 2007 5:01:28 AM ET
Montgomery & Co
NEW YORK, February 1 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Montgomery & Co maintain their "hold" rating on Sierra Wireless Inc (SWIR.NAS), while raising their estimates for the company.
In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has reported robust 4Q results, which are ahead of the estimates and the consensus. The upside in the performance was driven by Sierra Wireless' increased penetration with HSDPA in Europe and improved traction with Cingular and Verizon in the US, the analysts say. The EPS estimates for 1Q07 and FY07 have been raised from $0.07 to $0.12 and from $0.36 to $0.60, respectively, to reflect the growing adoption of the company's technologies and an improved market opportunity.

[la-onda]

gap up/short squeeze coming  tomorrow   

SWIR: Q1 EPS 20c vs 10c Beats 12c Est; Guidance Above ConsensusThursday , April 26, 2007 16:39ET

QUARTER RESULTS
Sierra Wireless, Incorporated (SWIR) reported Q1 results ended March 2007. Q1 Revenues were $85.43M; +88.92% vs yr-ago; BEATING revenue consensus by +4.25%. Q1 EPS was 20c; +100.00% vs yr-ago; BEATING earnings consensus by +66.67%.

Q1 RESULTS   Reported      Year-Ago     Y/Y Chg      Estimate    SURPRISE
----------  ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------  ----------
Revenues:    .43M         $45.22M             +88.92%    $81.95M    4.25%
----------  ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------  ----------
EPS:              20c             10c                +100.00%         12c     +66.67%
----------  ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------  ----------

GUIDANCE:

Q2-07 Revenue Outlook [$92M]: Expects revenue of 92M The Q2-07 revenue forecast is above current consensus estimates.
Q2-07 Earnings Outlook [25c]: Expects non gaap EPS of .25 The Q2-07 earnings forecast is above current consensus estimates.

&

Sierra Wireless shares up in after-hours trading after strong Q1 and raised guidance
Thursday , April 26, 2007 20:41ET

VANCOUVER, Apr 26, 2007 (The Canadian Press via COMTEX) -- Sierra Wireless Inc. (TSX:SW) more than doubled its first-quarter profit compared with a year ago and beat its own and analyst expectations as the telecom technology company reported earnings of US$5.3 million Thursday. The Vancouver-based wireless hardware company also increased its financial guidance for the second quarter as it expected higher revenue from new products and new sales channels, an announcement that sent its shares sharply higher in after-hours trading.
"The first quarter of 2007 was a period of record revenue and significantly improved profitability," Sierra Wireless chief executive Jason Cohenour told a conference call with analysts late Thursday. "We expect that our current product portfolio, combined with more new product releases, further channel expansion and the addition of AirLink will help drive continued revenue growth and improved profitability during 2007"

Shares of the company, which released its results after the close of markets, were up $2.23 or about 13 per cent at US$19 in after-hours trading.  Sierra Wireless, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, said the profit for the three months ended March 31 amounted to 20 cents per share. That compared with a profit of US$2.6 million or 10 cents per share in the first three months of 2006. Quarterly revenue nearly doubled to $85.4 million, up from $45.2 million a year ago.

The company had given guidance for earnings of $3 million or 12 cents per share on revenue of $82 million for the first quarter, while the average analyst estimate had been for earnings of 13 cents per share based on 13 analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.

The average revenue estimate had been for $83 million, based on 16 analysts.
In its guidance for the second quarter, Sierra Wireless said it expects earnings of $5.5 million or 21 cents per share on revenue of $92 million.
Sierra Wireless said if it could close its acquisition of Airlink Communications by the end of May, that deal could add $2 million to revenue for the quarter. The company agreed last month to buy privately held AirLink, a developer and supplier of fixed, portable and mobile wireless data products, for more than C$30 million in stock and cash. Cohenour said the acquisition will help diversify the company's business and improve margins at Sierra Wireless.

"The extent to which we can grow that business and maintain the gross margin and operating margin profile will have a steadily improving and bigger impact on the overall blended business," he said. Under the terms of the definitive agreement, Sierra Wireless will pay US$10 million in cash plus issue approximately 1.3 million shares of Sierra Wireless to the AirLink shareholders.

AirLink, located in Hayward, Calif., has 50 full-time employees and earned revenue of US$24.8 million in 2006, up from US$19.8 million a year earlier. AirLink has been a customer of Sierra Wireless. Last year, the company bought about US$2.5 million to US$3 million in modems and other embedded modules from the Canadian company.

&

SWIR: Short Interest DN 8.2% to 3.3M in Apr 2007
Tuesday , April 24, 2007 16:21ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Sierra Wireless, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: SWIR) DECREASED 8.2% to 3,282,583 shares for the month ended mid-April, 2007.

SYMBOL           MARCH           APRIL          CHANGE       %CHANGE  DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
SWIR           3,577,506       3,282,583        -294,923        -8.24%           6

Based on SWIR's 20-day average daily share volume of 547,815, it would require approximately 6 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

[la-onda]

Second quarter 2008 results reported by Sierra Wireless
Thursday , July 24, 2008 05:55ET

Jul 24, 2008 (M2 EQUITYBITES via COMTEX) -- Sierra Wireless Inc (Nasdaq:SWIR) (TSX:SW), a provider of modems and software for mobile broadband networks, on 23 July reported results for the second quarter of 2008, ended 30 June 2008.

Revenues for the quarter totalled USD155.7m, which was a record and exceeded the company's guidance of USD154.0m for the quarter. This was in comparison with revenues of USD107.4m in the second quarter of 2007, representing a 45% increase. Revenues for the first six months of the fiscal year were USD297.6m, as compared with USD192.8m in the corresponding six months of the prior year.

Net earnings for the second quarter were USD11.0m or USD0.35 per diluted share. This was in line with the company's guidance for the quarter. Net earnings for the second quarter of last year were USD6.7m or USD0.25 per diluted share.

For the first six months of fiscal 2008 net earnings were USD20.6m or USD0.66 per diluted share, as compared with USD11.9m or USD0.45 per diluted share in the corresponding period of the prior year.

&
SWIR: RBC Capital Cuts to Sector Perform from Outperform; Cuts Tgt to $15 vs $25; Analyst Notes
Thursday , July 24, 2008 11:04ET
Issuer: Sierra Wireless, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: SWIR)
Analyst Firm:  RBC Capital Markets
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Sector Perform (from Outperform)
Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $15.00 (-40.00% from $25.00)
Analyst Comments: The firm based their downgrade on: 1) abrupt competitive share losses in Modules; 2) Reduced visibility to growth, margins; 3) concern SWIR's other businesses won't offset declining fundamentals in Modules.

&

SWIR: Jefferies Cuts to Underperform from Buy; Cuts Tgt to $11 vs $25; Analyst Notes
Thursday , July 24, 2008 08:24ET
Issuer: Sierra Wireless, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: SWIR)
Analyst Firm:  Jefferies Group Inc.
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Underperform (from Buy)
Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $11.00 (-56.00% from $25.00)
Analyst Comments: As strong secular growth trends in 3G wireless data cards decelerate, SWIR will be more vulnerable to the intense competition and pricing pressure that exist in the sector. In the firm's opinion, an end-market slowdown typically lasts more than a few quarters.