ORCL - Sector: Technology---Industry: Software & Programming

[Zyce]

before i start let me just say i'm your typical beginner to all this stock trading biz so plz correct me if i'm wrong or gimmie pointers xD

ok here we go;

hey guys, i think ORCl deserves a look because i think in the next 2 weeks or so we might see a 10%+ growth. which i think is pretty damn good incentive to put a solid chunk of your portfolio into since orcl is a pretty solid company and the stock is pretty stagnant around 12-13$ so its  not gonna drop to zill any time soon.


here is the 3month chart for orcl, linear graph, 10day+50day moving average, macd, vol:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ORCL&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=m50,m10&a=m26-12-9,v&c=



The good: 10day moving avg is approaching the 50day from below. last week the market has been pretty good, e.g. intc,amd,mrvl going up. this time we're nearer to the 52 week low rather thant he 52week high.

The bad: around end of sept05, the 10day avg approached the 50day avg but then the stock plumeted. street.com said to avoid this stock since its 'ghost of the past' but i'm only looking for 10% here, not expecting it to go thru the roof and hit 20$.


input appreciated!

[Ramsburg]

Profile: Oracle Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, distribution, servicing, and marketing of database, middleware, and application software. It offers software license updates, product support, and other services. The company operates in five segments: New Software Licenses, Software License Updates and Products Support, Consulting, On Demand, and Education.
Website: http://www.oracle.com
Market Cap: 80B

Trading Idea:
Probably not a very interesting stock to trade for being such a big cap, but ORCL is performing very well against difficult market conditions, building a strong technical pattern and having solid fundamentals.

Yesterday ORCL made a new 52 weeks high, starting to breakout a big resistance @ $15.20, and having a nearby ascending support level @ $14.70.
When looking to the long term chart (second attached on this post), we have a better idea of the long triangulation pattern that is happening now, and the upside potential in play.  
Our goal here is to give a shot at this chart with an interesting risk / reward ratio.

Trading Plan:
We'll buy ORCL today at or near the open, and then set a stop @ $14.45 for this position.

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Update:
Nice start for this trade, having the expected continuation from the previous day breakout, volume has increased and momentum is high. There is always the chance of a retest on the breakout level at this stage, but we expect continuation for short term.

Trading Plan:
Hold ORCL with a stop @ $14.45.

[Ramsburg]

Update:
ORCL is holding well the recent breakout, like said before: there is a chance of a retest on the breakout level at this stage, but we expect continuation to the upside for the short term, so we'll hold this position with a little room (defined by our stop level).

Trading Plan:
Hold ORCL with a stop @ $14.45.

[shawFund]

Technical and fundamental both favor up trend, target $17-$18.

But the downside is that it is too big to have meaningful run. May still back to range trading.

[Ramsburg]

Update:
ORCL is still consolidating the recent breakout, trading above $15.25, the pattern still looks very strong, and the ascending support line is now located at $15.10. We'll keep the same plan, and Hold ORCL.

Trading Plan:
Hold ORCL with a stop @ $14.45.

[Ramsburg]

Update:
ORCL retested the breakout level and is now approaching the ascending support line. This position looks solid and this consolidation period is healthy and may provide strength for a further move. We'll keep the same plan for now.

Trading Plan:
Hold ORCL with a stop @ $14.45.

[Ramsburg]

Update:
No special update here, ORCL is developing its pattern slowly, but according to our setup. We'll keep the same plan for now.

Trading Plan:
Hold ORCL with a stop @ $14.45.

[Ramsburg]

Update:
ORCL remains on its consolidation range, after last month's breakout. We expect ORCL to break into new highs anytime soon.

A new article from Forbes.com was published yesterday:
Oracle Remains A 'Top Idea' In Software   

Trading Plan:
Hold ORCL with a stop @ $14.45.

[Ramsburg]

Update:
ORCL moved higher, breaking the recent highs after some consolidation. This chart looks solid... slow, but solid.
We'll keep the same plan.

Trading Plan:
Hold ORCL with a stop @ $14.45.

[Ramsburg]

Update:
ORCL had a little step back on Friday after reaching new highs last Thursday. The overall bullish pattern is in place, and we have no reasons to worry about this position so far.

Trading Plan:
Hold ORCL with a stop @ $14.45.

[shawFund]

ORCL is cerainly a blue-chip tech stock. But it has no potential to give us big return. It is too big.

Many other tech stocks will have big runs in coming months.

HLIT already gained 70%, RMBS 80%, AMD 40%, many others will follow.

[Ramsburg]

ORCL is cerainly a blue-chip tech stock. But it has no potential to give us big return. It is too big.

Many other tech stocks will have big runs in coming months.

HLIT already gained 70%, RMBS 80%, AMD 40%, many others will follow.

Hi Shaw,
As I said before, ORCL may not be «sexy» because it's too fat But while the chart is moving up, I see no reason to drop this position, with the right market condition I think ORCL has the strength to trade above $18.50.

Update:
ORCL is walking its way up on the yellow ascending line on the chart, we're just going to upgrade our stop and let this trade developing:

Trading Plan:
Hold ORCL with a stop @ $15.45.

[shawFund]

We have done quite detailed analysis on ORCL:

Oracle earnings growth seems in right direction:

Its annual EPSs in the last 4 years are

$0.44 -> $0.51 -> $0.68 -> $0.81 

with regressive annual EPS growth rate of 21.18%.

If you use $0.81 x 21.18 growth rate, its share price will be valued at $17.16.

Therefore, I will ready to sell if it reached to taht target price. Market may overshot when it is really hot. But we need to know what is its value.

If it is undervalued, buy it.

[Ramsburg]

Update:
Really great news with earnings beating the estimates:
Oracle results top expectations as profit soars 29%
Shares climb in extended trading as application revenue skyrockets

A while ago I said:

I see no reason to drop this position, with the right market condition I think ORCL has the strength to trade above $18.50.

Well, ORCL closed the after hours @ $18.28, the stock will open wit a gap up today with the public «buying» the news. The old saying is: «buy the rumour and sell the news», we didn't bought any rumour, we just bought a nice chart pattern, but now we'll be selling the news

Trading Plan:
Sell ORCL today (on the pre market or regular session), the ideal price would be above $18.50 but any price above $17.75 would be good enough for this trade.