The Wolfwave Pattern / Why walk with bulls - run with the wolves!

[Av8trader]

Here is a nice one.   

[rurouni]

Hi Calstar,

I am not sure but I think your diagram doesn't qualify for a Wolfewave yet since point 5 seems to stop far from touching the trendline.  Remember Calven stressed that point 5 must go beyond the trendline then return.  Who knows, maybe it could be on its way for a Wolfewave in the making.  What do you guys think?

[kslifka]

PETS is in a nice uptrending channel right now.   For all we know it could go to 100.  Like Calven mentioned, point 5 is critical to identifying a WW.  If it breaks out of the upper trendline and returns to the channel, only then  will we talk about Wolfwaves. Keep a watch on it though, it has good symmetry.

[rurouni]

PETS is in a nice uptrending channel right now.   For all we know it could go to 100.  Like Calven mentioned, point 5 is critical to identifying a WW.  If it breaks out of the upper trendline and returns to the channel, only then  will we talk about Wolfwaves. Keep a watch on it though, it has good symmetry.

Yup, good observation Calstar/kslifka.  Calstar, you may have something good here.  Let's keep an eye on it.

[nberski]

Heck:

Look at DESC -  60 minute - one week.

Is this a developing WW?

[KCScott]

I've read this thread at least 3 times, and looked at more charts than an optomitrist.
I've been fishing in largest losers and 52 week lows
but think I may have found one:

MWE

MarkWest Energy Partners LP



The fundamentals don't suck too badly either:

67% Revenue Growth and a 20 Fwd. P/E

Thoughts?

[KCScott]

OK, just noticed average daily volume on MWE is only about 10,000 shares.
35,000 traded in todays drop.

Not sure how volume that low plays into WW

[agatto2]

CAlster  awxom find pets,,, i had to applaud you. And use it at the five point... Melf  you stupid?? If your stupid ,, man some of your technicals are gliffin genius.   tonyg

[rurouni]

Thanks for the Metastock WW formula.  Applause. 

I haven't had any success with figuring out how to work with formulas, but I'll let you know if I figure out how to do it.

Hi Melf,

Thanks for the applause and you are welcome.  I haven't had the chance to fiddle around with Metastock much either and I think we should request an MB for strictly software usage and help.  How can I do so?  Just email David or 3sof staff?

[Melf Elf]

I think we should request an MB for strictly software usage and help.  How can I do so?  Just email David or 3sof staff?

Wayne,

Maybe you could start a thread like "Help With Metastock" or "Working With Metastock" on this Technical Analysis board?  Thanks for your efforts to figure out that WW formula.

Melf you stupid?? If your stupid ,, man some of your technicals are gliffin genius. tonyg

Tony,

Thank you, but I can be plenty stupid, believe me. 

Melf Elf when I used tradestation for awhile they had staff members who would help their customers build a search. I'm assuming MStock does likewise.
Good Luck. You are on a good quest there.

tirebldr,

Thanks for the suggestion.  I've found Metastock support to be helpful.  They don't have a toll free number for support, however, so the meter is running while you're trying to tell them your problem. 

I'm not exactly sure what my problem is, or the right questions to ask them. 

You see what I mean when I said that I can be plenty stupid.   

[thai626]

Hey Guys,

Here is another wolfewave........or what looks to be a wolfewave.  I don't know if I connect the trendlines correctly.  Anyways, point 5 has already hit and now it's on it's way to point 6.
I think i'll be more sure of the pattern if the support trendline gets broken....otherwise, it's a pretty close call. 

[Melf Elf]

Hey Guys,

Here is another wolfewave........or what looks to be a wolfewave.  I don't know if I connect the trendlines correctly.

thai,

I don't think that we can ignore the high of 2.50 on October 5, and arbitrarily start Wave 1 the next day, as you did.  Otherwise, it sure has the right look to it.  Applause for your efforts.

Another problem, in gerneral, is that most brokers won't allow us to short stocks under $5.00.  Check with your brokers, but I know that Scottrade won't allow it.

I think i'll be more sure of the pattern if the support trendline gets broken....

I show it broken on both a print and closing basis on December 20, and boy, am I glad that you didn't show me this stock after the close on December 19 because I would have been a buyer the morning of December 20, and immediately would have been stopped out that day for a loss.

   

Let me explain:

1. The up trendline that you mentioned was validated to the exact penny on November 16, at 2.10.   November 17, the stock remained a half penny above the trendline.  Nice.

2. November 23, we got a print high of 2.51, very near the previous high of 2.50, then got a three day selloff.  We then were looking at an Ascending Triangle, with the flat top at 2.50-2.51.

3. We got the upside breakout on November 30 on very good volume.

4. We got a Breakaway Gap the next day, after the Ascending Triangle breakout.  Great!

5. For the next two weeks, consolidation, and a rollover to the downside, back to the top of the Ascending Triangle, with a close right at 2.51 on December 19.  It's better if the breakaway gap doesn't get filled, but a re-test of the breakout is okay.  In fact, that's often an excellent entry into a stock.

6. But, if we bought the 2.51 close,  look at the December 20 candlestick!  YUK...

I would have had to stop that out.  We've seen a lot of those breakouts and then breakdowns this year.  Frustrating. 

And, now, JDSU is back above the 2.50-2.51 breakout!   

JDSU might go ahead and make that 3.26 Ascending Triangle target that is IN PLAY, but geez, I hate to play stocks that "done me wrong," like this one would have done had I bought that 2.50-2.51 re-test on December 19.

[Melf Elf]

Here's one for observation only since its under $5.00, but it seems to have the elements that we're looking for.  Nice symmetry.

Waves 1 and 3 are 11 days apart.
Waves 3 and 5 are 10 days apart.

The slope of the bottom of the channel is 0.012
The slope of the top of the channel is 0.0133

[thai626]

I don't think that we can ignore the high of 2.50 on October 5, and arbitrarily start Wave 1 the next day, as you did.  Otherwise, it sure has the right look to it.  Applause for your efforts.

And, now, JDSU is back above the 2.50-2.51 breakout!   

JDSU might go ahead and make that 3.26 Ascending Triangle target that is IN PLAY, but geez, I hate to play stocks that "done me wrong," like this one would have done had I bought that 2.50-2.51 re-test on December 19.

Thanks Melf................I know I can count on you for the technical analysis.  I was trying very hard whether to consider this an ascending triangle as you say (by connecting the high of 2.50 on October 5th) or just make the chart look like a wolfewave.  I decided on the latter  This is a classic example of making something of nothing as people would say.

I came across this chart because my brother was asking me what he should do with it.  Here's my answer:  I told him to hold unless it closes below the the ascending support line.  What do you think?

[Melf Elf]

I was trying very hard whether to consider this an ascending triangle as you say (by connecting the high of 2.50 on October 5th) or just make the chart look like a wolfewave.  I decided on the latter  This is a classic example of making something of nothing as people would say.

thai,

No problem.  We've probably all been seeing WWs everywhere that they don't exist since calven got us started.  I know I have. 

I came across this chart because my brother was asking me what he should do with it.  Here's my answer:  I told him to hold unless it closes below the the ascending support line.  What do you think?

That's where I'd stop it out.  The problem is, it already closed below it on December 20.   

Since it's back above the 2.50-2.51 top of the Ascending Triangle (it closed right at 2.51), your brother might have dodged a bullet on a false breakdown to 2.39.  I wouldn't want to see JDSU go below that 2.39 low of December 20, though. 

Good luck to your brother with it.  Tell him if he makes any $$$ he has to share it with you.  If he loses on it, that's his loss.