The Wolfwave Pattern / Why walk with bulls - run with the wolves!

[Melf Elf]

QQQQ - Completed Bullish Wolfe Wave

1. Lead-in was DOWN

2. Start Wave #1 at the end of the Lead-in

3. Wolfe Wave Pattern was DOWN (albeit, only slightly.  Nice symmetry, though)

4. Downside fakeout at Wave #5

5. Upside target at #6 fell shy by just a few pennies on November 23.

6. "Mini" H&S Top after rally to #6.

7. Broken neckline of the "Mini" H&S Top re-tested after the break.

8. "Mini" H&S Top target of 40.30 still is IN PLAY.  Yesterday's low was 40.65

[Melf Elf]

HOM - Bearish Wolfe Wave

1. Lead-in was UP

2. Start Wave #1 at the end of the lead-in

3. Wolfe Wave pattern is UP, matching the lead-in

4. Upside fakeout at Wave #5

5. "W"bottom possibility for a rally back to the bottom of the broken Wolfe Wave failed.

6. The failed "W" bottom trendline has been resistance for the past two days.

[Melf Elf]

GIGM - Bearish Wolfe Wave

1. Lead-in was UP

2. Start Wave #1 at the end of the Lead-in

3. Wolfe Wave is UP, matching the Lead-in

4. Intraday upside fakeouts at #5

6. Horizontal support (black line) at 2.79 is holding

7. Possible Bullish Symmetrical Triangle (Purple) breakout, above 2.79 support area.

Despite the Bearish Wolfe Wave, the trend is up and with the Symmetrical Triangle forming above 2.79 support, I wouldn't want to short this one (even if we could). 

I also don't like the long side because of the Bearish Wolfe Wave, and because the technicals have weakened.   MACD double-topped, and just ticked below the signal line.

Watch...

[calven]

"Lead ins"..... - the WW's need to agree with the trend...

Shown below are the diagrams. You can see that I drew in the lead in with a slightly darker line. (the first line entering the channel)

[calven]

Hey guys, don't forget about the COMPX (nasdaq)

The compx also is trading in a WW!

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3779.15

[Melf Elf]

QQQQ - Completed Bullish Wolfe Wave

8. "Mini" H&S Top target of 40.30 still is IN PLAY.  Yesterday's low was 40.65

Today's low was 40.36, within six cents of the target.

Basis the 5-minute chart, the QQQQ has formed an Ascending Triangle (breakout is 40.59).  The bottom of the triangle has been validated with 3 hits, and we've also got a bull flag late this afternoon.  Looks like it wants to break out. 



The bottom of the Bull Flag/3rd Hit to the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle is 40.44. 

[rickjust]

Note: I am looking to buy DESC at the 1-4 line. It has more room to go....eyeballing the line I would give it another month and a projected entry of 5.50 -

Cal 

hi calven,
fascinating thread. looking at desc , and an entry at 5.50 . would you still short it at this point until it hits 5.50ish?
thanks
maxi

[Melf Elf]

Today's low was 40.36, within six cents of the target.

Basis the 5-minute chart, the QQQQ has formed an Ascending Triangle (breakout is 40.59).  The bottom of the triangle has been validated with 3 hits, and we've also got a bull flag late this afternoon.  Looks like it wants to break out. 

The bottom of the Bull Flag/3rd Hit to the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle is 40.44. 

No breakout.  The QQQQ was trading at the top of the day's trading range at the end of the day, looking like it might put in a Bullish Hammer, but it got sold off into the close, broke 40.44, and closed near the low of the day.

A Bullish Hammer would have given us the chance of an upside Bullish Island Reversal, but Friday's candlestick, if anything, is looking more like we'll test the Bullish Wolfe Wave breakout (horizontal blue line). 

hi calven,
fascinating thread. looking at desc , and an entry at 5.50 . would you still short it at this point until it hits 5.50ish?
thanks
maxi

maxi,

I was studying calven's chart this morning and thinking that DESC looks like it's in an Elliott Wave 4
A-B-C rally back to, or near, the bottom of broken Wolfe Wave.

I'll post you a chart in the DESC folder on the Former 3SOF Board, in case any other members are following it, and might miss it in this folder.  Not to complicate the 3SOF site with more boards, but we almost need an entire Wolfe Wave board with individual stock folders.  I'm starting to lose track of the stocks are that we've been discussing, which is why I've done a few "reposts" to individual stock folders.

[calven]

Note: I am looking to buy DESC at the 1-4 line. It has more room to go....eyeballing the line I would give it another month and a projected entry of 5.50 -

Cal 

hi calven,
fascinating thread. looking at desc , and an entry at 5.50 . would you still short it at this point until it hits 5.50ish?
thanks
maxi

Hey maxi,

Although probability trading favors a short position at these levels on DESC it seems to me as if the majoriy of the bear WW move is over. DESC could theoretically consolidate and the 1-4 WW line would actually gradually rise. Furthermore, energy could take off as 2006 crude oil prices are already projected higher. This would certainly boost DESC.

At this point I would say a good risk/reward ratio for shorting DESC just isnt there anymore. The opportunity for that would have been just after point 5 on the WW chart.  I would suggest you wait and buy long down at the 1-4 WW line.

What do the rest of your guys think?

Thanks
Cal 

[calven]

Today's low was 40.36, within six cents of the target.

Basis the 5-minute chart, the QQQQ has formed an Ascending Triangle (breakout is 40.59).  The bottom of the triangle has been validated with 3 hits, and we've also got a bull flag late this afternoon.  Looks like it wants to break out. 

The bottom of the Bull Flag/3rd Hit to the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle is 40.44. 

No breakout.  The QQQQ was trading at the top of the day's trading range at the end of the day, looking like it might put in a Bullish Hammer, but it got sold off into the close, broke 40.44, and closed near the low of the day.

A Bullish Hammer would have given us the chance of an upside Bullish Island Reversal, but Friday's candlestick, if anything, is looking more like we'll test the Bullish Wolfe Wave breakout (horizontal blue line). 

hi calven,
fascinating thread. looking at desc , and an entry at 5.50 . would you still short it at this point until it hits 5.50ish?
thanks
maxi

maxi,

I was studying calven's chart this morning and thinking that DESC looks like it's in an Elliott Wave 4
A-B-C rally back to, or near, the bottom of broken Wolfe Wave.

I'll post you a chart in the DESC folder on the Former 3SOF Board, in case any other members are following it, and might miss it in this folder.  Not to complicate the 3SOF site with more boards, but we almost need an entire Wolfe Wave board with individual stock folders.  I'm starting to lose track of the stocks are that we've been discussing, which is why I've done a few "reposts" to individual stock folders.

I wonder if the 3SOF staff would consider creating a special section for stocks making WW's. It would help us better organize and keep track of these patterns. Maybe a "bear ww" and "bull ww" thread. I think that as this thread grows in popularity it might be warranted to create its own section on this message board. If enough people agreed with this idea David might be willing to do something like this.  Anyways, off to celebrate the New Year. Happy holidays all!

Cal 

[rickjust]

thanks melf elf and calven,
will be checking the desc thread,
maxi

[Melf Elf]

QQQQ - Completed Bullish Wolfe Wave

8. "Mini" H&S Top target of 40.30 still is IN PLAY.  Yesterday's low was 40.65

Today's low was 40.36, within six cents of the target.

After filling Friday's 40.65 gap at the open this morning, the 40.30 target MADE at 10:23AM.

[rickjust]

hi melf elf,
low of 40.16  but rallied back to the 40.50s. is this still a good short ?

[Melf Elf]

hi melf elf,
low of 40.16  but rallied back to the 40.50s. is this still a good short ?

maxi,

In my view, the place to short it was the neckline break, or the re-test of the neckline.  Now that the 40.30 target has been MADE,  while the QQQQ certainly could go lower,  I view it as "take profits on shorts," or at least partial profits when targets get MADE.  Just the way that I play.

The NASDAQ also made the Bear Flag/(H&S Top?) target of 2192.28 this morning.  The low was 2189.90.  Again, it could go lower, but I'm a little bit doubtful about this WW since Wave 5 didn't go above the top of the channel for the "false breakout."  The WWs seem to work better if you get the false breakout, but I don't have enough experience with it.

 

[rickjust]

thanks,
max