The Wolfwave Pattern / Why walk with bulls - run with the wolves!

[nberski]

Check this out.  AXJ  Weekly - 2 years,  or daily - 6 mos.

[calven]

YES! Great find - Im in from .57


Lets rock n roll! 

[calven]

Hey guys I am not able to post the chart right now but if somebody can post a chart of XMSR.
You will see a great WW forming.
12/08 point 1
12/15          2
1/3             3
1/11            4

point 5 around 26.50 current price27.17

Sorry Sir I don't see a WW forming with XMSR.

Thai - Melf was right. You don't have the right lead in trend for that to be a WW.

cal 

[thai626]

Thai - Melf was right. You don't have the right lead in trend for that to be a WW.

cal 

Cal,

Are you referring to RHAT??  It was the correct lead in but the only thing in question was whether the target line can be positive in a bearish wolvewave.  If it can't, then it's not a true wolvewave.  However, the target of $27.5 did hit in recent days.  Happy Trading!!

[calven]

Applaud Calven.  Fantastic Tutorial.. Belongs in a book somewhere's so it doesn't get misplaced .

I took your advice...I am writing an e-book tutorial on the Wolfwave pattern. Expect it to be completed next week. I didnt start this thread for this purpose - but as long as its here and has AWESOME information I'd like to use it....see post below.

Thanks,
Cal 

[calven]

To Active Members in this Thread -

As I mentioned above I am writing a comprehensive tutorial on the Wolfwave pattern to be "published" and eventually put up for sale either as part of a hardcopy or sold as an "ebook" on the internet. Before I go ahead writing some of the sections I wanted to ask permission for rights to reproduce the content existing in this thread in the tutorial. I am asking your permission to include all or parts of your individual posts and possibly your "handles" in the tutorial. I will NOT be including any personal information of any of you, simply content dealing with questions or comments you have posted here.

If you could please let me know if you agree to this I would appreciate it as I would like to avoid being sued. (Email me with objections only) : [email protected]

Particulary relating to:  Melf Elf (page 3 - dynamics behind the pattern posts) - Thai62 (charts) ScottishTrader (charts comments) - Agatto (charts comments) - Others I may have missed...

Thanks Everyone,
Cal 

[Melf Elf]

I forget who asked me to post a chart on QTWW on December 30.  Nice chart, but I forgot to watch it.  QTWW broke out of the WW pattern on Monday on a breakaway gap.  It's up another 5%.  Anybody play it?  I'll post that chart for review, then the updated chart next.

Particulary relating to:  Melf Elf (page 3 - dynamics behind the pattern posts) - Thai62 (charts) ScottishTrader (charts comments) - Agatto (charts comments) - Others I may have missed...

Thanks Everyone,

Cal 

cal,

Feel free to use anything that I've written.  Good luck with your publication!

Are you referring to RHAT?? It was the correct lead in but the only thing in question was whether the target line can be positive in a bearish wolvewave. If it can't, then it's not a true wolvewave.

thai,

The Wave 1-4 bisect (target line) has to slope down in a bearish WW.  Also, it looks like an awkward place to start Wave #1.  I could be wrong, but it seems that Wave #1 should start at the top of the big move up (the Lead-in), which would be the November 7 high, after the big move up from August.  That doesn't turn out to be a WW, but if we choose some arbitrary high along the high, it seems like we're "forcing" the WW, if you know what I mean.  I could be wrong about that, though.  Applause for your effort.

However, the target of $27.5 did hit in recent days. Happy Trading!!

I don't recall Caven saying that we couldn't CHEAT to get our targets, do you?    

[Melf Elf]

Updated QTWW chart (as of yesterday's close).  It's up 56% since December 30.  Who asked me to post to this chart?  Was it therman? 

[Melf Elf]

thai,

Here's what I meant.  Wave 1 should start at the end of that big lead-in, not at some arbitrary point along the rally (calven, please correct me if that's wrong).

It doesn't work out.  The trendline between Waves 2 and 4 is violated.  The move to what would be Wave 5 looks much too strong to the "false move" that we're looking for.

Again, Calven, correct anything that is wrong.  We've had enough confusion.    

[calven]

You are absolutely correct in your analysis Melf Elf. (applause)  I love the QTWW setup and I bought a small position in the stock (3.79) the day after it gapped up over the 2-4 resistance line - seeing as the DESC trade never panned out.  I am trading the WW with QTWW with my target being just over 6.00 (1-4) line. My chart is almost a mirror image of the one you have above. I also bought AXJ at .57 as a result of the chart posted above. (applause) Again another winner... Up over 10%

I also appreciate you letting me use your "dynamics behind the WW" post and chart in my publication. Much appreciated.

Thanks,
Cal 

[akclide]

here are 4 charts that are looking good for WW pattern, Can somebody second it?.
PANL is not ready yet but close.
1st chart PANL
2nd chart UTI
3rd chart SGDE
4th chart SUG.

[Melf Elf]

here are 4 charts that are looking good for WW pattern, Can somebody second it?.
PANL is not ready yet but close.
1st chart PANL
2nd chart UTI
3rd chart SGDE
4th chart SUG.

akclide,

None of those looks like of WW, but applause for your effort.  Same problem that we all have been having: 

1. Wave #1 has to begin at the end of what I've been calling a "Lead-in," or a strong directional move.  We can't choose some arbitrary spot to begin Wave #1.

2. The WW formation has to be in the same direction as the Lead-in.

3. The Wave #1-#4 bisect (the target line that gets us to #6) has to be in the OPPOSITE direction of both the Lead-in and the overall WW pattern formation.

Beyond that, it gets a little more sophisticated with finding Fibonacci relationships between the waves, but unless we have got those three elements, it isn't a Wolfe Wave.  (calven, please correct me if that's wrong).

I forget on what page calven posted sample charts and said, "If it doesn't look like this, it's not a WW," but it might be good to review those, and even print them out.

Using your PANL as an example, acklide, I've drawn below the chart what a WW would look like.   Note where I began Wave #1.  That's very important:  To start Wave #1, begin at the END of the Lead-in, which is a directional move.   Then the WW pattern has to be in the SAME direction.   That seems to be where we're getting it wrong, right off the bat.   

On your PANL, what we've got is a Symmetrical Triangle and a breakout of that pattern.

[Melf Elf]

I bought a small position in the stock (3.79) the day after it gapped up over the 2-4 resistance line - seeing as the DESC trade never panned out.  I am trading the WW with QTWW with my target being just over 6.00 (1-4) line.

calven,

That's great!  I need to figure out how to set up price alerts.  I'm at Scottrade, and I'm afraid if I download their new Scottrade Elite that has alerts, I'll lose all of my boards...or, I won't like whatever the new configuration is.  I like the one they have.

RE: QTWW, I'm thinking that you might run into resistance at 4.36-4.47, then right above that, at 4.48-4.52, and the stock is "ahead of itself" with the 50/200DMAs out of position.

Here's the 4.36-4.47.  I'll show you the other on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart next.

[Melf Elf]

then right above that, at 4.48-4.52,

calven,

Basis the weekly chart, the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) is 4.48.  The prior low, which also is the Wave #1 low, is 4.52 (horizontal resistance).  Often, it's daunting for a stock to make much progress into the Kumo (Cloud), if any, on the first attempt.  You can see evidence of that last February/March on this chart.  Price penetrated it, but was repelled and the stock continued lower.

4.50 would be a 100% rally off the 2.25 November low.  If QTWW isn't on fire with news (volume hasn't been that great on the breakout), it might need to back it up a bit and digest those gains, and let the 50DMA play catch-up, prior to mounting an attack into that Kumo (Cloud) resistance.

The bright side to any consolidation is that if your WW target is going to get MADE, the longer it takes to get there, the higher that Wave #1-#4 bisect (target line) rises  every week. 

 

Good luck!  I'm glad that you caught this one.

[akclide]

Thanks Melfelf for your directions I think I get the point let's see if I can come up with something else may be a right one this time.