ECIL

[Melf Elf]

No breakout today.  The high was 8.89.  ECIL currently is 8.57 BID...8.58 ASK, so I'm down $0.04     I'll hold the position. 

The chart still looks fine.  We're trading inside the bullish flag.  There's a chance that we'll break my 8.32 stop, tag the bottom of the flag pattern again, then break out.  I'm still using the 8.32 stop.  I only want to risk 3-4% on the trade. 

If I'm stopped out, I always can re-enter if I see bullish action off the bottom of the flag.

I stopped out the trade at $8.22 this afternoon when it became pretty obvious that ECIL wasn't going back above my $8.32 stop on a closing basis.  I was long from $8.61, so this is a loss of 4.5%.

This chart STILL looks fine, trading within a bullish channel, but I don't want to risk more.  The big Ascending Triangle breakout failed to hold, and the June 21 bullish hammer low of $8.32 failed to hold today.  I always can re-enter ECIL when I see support holding/bullish breakouts.

[Melf Elf]

ECIL hammered again yesterday.  This time, on its 50DMA.  It also completed a 50% retracement of its April to June rally.   I especially like the long-term trend, and the big Ascending Triangle. If  ECIL can breakout above the top of the June bull flag, it also will be back above the Ascending Triangle breakout.

Hope these chart links work:

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1119943856203?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:ECIL&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=50&Param2=0&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1119943792578?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:ECIL&Interval=W&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

[David Randolph]

Nice bounce from the $8 support level ... however long term ascending trendline comes only at $7.20.

To attach charts on your posts you can save them as .gif extensions. Thanks.

[Melf Elf]

To attach charts on your posts you can save them as .gif extensions. Thanks.

Thanks, David.  I have to figure out how to do that.  I was happy that at least the chart links worked.   

I like this pick of yours, ECIL.  While it might go back and test the bottom of the Ascending Triangle near 7.20, it bounced off the top of the Ichimoku cloud (support) yesterday, so it could run from here.  Ichimoku is an indicator that means "at a glance...one look" in Japanese.  The cloud is support or resistance.  Yesterday, it provided support for ECIL.  We'll see if it can follow through to the upside today.

If ECIL can break out above the June bull flag, currently at about 8.85, it also will be back above your big Ascending Triangle, and the $13.42 target will be back IN PLAY.

[Melf Elf]

Bought ECIL at 8.32.  Stop loss is a close (or obvious tank) below yesterday's low of 8.00.  Risk: 4% loss.

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1119943856203?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:ECIL&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=50&Param2=0&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

[Melf Elf]

Decent day for ECIL.  3-day Bullish Morning Star-looking reversal pattern off the 50DMA. 

1st Day: Black Candle
2nd Day: Gaps lower to form a star (in this case, it's a bullish hammer...close enough)
3rd Day: A white candle that closes well into the first day's black candle (it recovered 86% of the black candle).

I bought at 8.32, posted above.  Holding it.

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1119943856203?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:ECIL&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=50&Param2=0&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

[Melf Elf]

Pullback day, after the 3-day bullish pattern. 

That's okay, but 8.00 support is important support.  If you connect the lows of May 25 at 8.05 and June 27 at 8.00, the pattern takes on the look of a "mini" Head & Shoulders top formation that, if broken, measures to 6.55     I really, really don't want to see 8.00 get broken.

9.45 (June 2 top) - 8.00 (neckline) = 1.45 points. 
8.00 (neckline) - 1.45 points = 6.55 downside target IN PLAY, if neckline gets broken

I'm long from 8.32.  Stop: a close (or obvious late day tank) below 8.00


http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1119943856203?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:ECIL&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=50&Param2=0&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

[Melf Elf]

ECIL put in another hammer off its 50DMA in a market that was generally down.  That's fine, but MACD has returned to the zero line, and I don't like the look of this "mini" H&S top over the last six weeks.  It needs to get going to the upside.  I held it.

Long from 8.32.  Stop: a CLOSE (or obvious late day tank) below 8.00

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1119943856203?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:ECIL&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=50&Param2=0&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

[Melf Elf]

ECIL closed at 8.34, on only 79,000 shares traded in the pre-holiday market.  I'll hold it.

Long from 8.32.  Stop: a CLOSE (or obvious late day tank) below 8.00



http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1119943856203?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:ECIL&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=50&Param2=0&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

[Melf Elf]

MACD has returned to the zero line, and I don't like the look of this "mini" H&S top over the last six weeks.  It needs to get going to the upside.  I held it.

Yesterday's candle is exactly what I didn't want to see     Especially on a good up day in the NASDAQ.

I'm long ECIL from 8.32, after the successful test of the 50DMA last week, at 8.00.  Instead of continuing to rally off that test, its back near my stop of 8.00 again, and threatening to break it 

This is where "honor thy stop" comes into play for me.   I can think of several things that ECIL "could be" doing.  And, I can justify holding it for a test of the bottom of the big Ascending Triangle (dotted line on the chart) down around 7.20, but that would be a loss of 13.5%.  I'm not willing to lose that much.

I'm stopping this one out on a PRINT of 7.99, for a 4% loss, as planned when I took the trade.  I would consider repurchasing it on a test of the bottom of the Ascending Triangle (dotted line).

[atl_trader]

ECIL closed at 8.34, on only 79,000 shares traded in the pre-holiday market.  I'll hold it.

Long from 8.32.  Stop: a CLOSE (or obvious late day tank) below 8.00



http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1119943856203?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:ECIL&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=50&Param2=0&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

There's Strong consolidation (Improving). $8.10-8.12. Shares: 83,763. Time: 3 hours 27 minutes as of the close today.
Volume Weighted Volatility:  $0.0279 / 15 minutes 
The trend seems to be continuing.

[Melf Elf]

There's Strong consolidation (Improving). $8.10-8.12. Shares: 83,763. Time: 3 hours 27 minutes as of the close today.
Volume Weighted Volatility:  $0.0279 / 15 minutes 
The trend seems to be continuing.

I expected to be stopped out of this one yesterday (and still might be  ), but ECIL hung on at $8.00 support in a down market.  Big picture, I like the large Ascending Triangle (the bottom of it is near 7.20), and earnings are improving.  It's trading at 16.5 times 2006 estimate.  Not bad.  I just don't want to ride it down to $7.20 support, if that's where it's headed   

I'd like to see it rally out of this 8.00 area on some volume.  Yesterday's was 190,000 shares.  30-day average is 482,000 shares. 

[Melf Elf]

I stopped it out today on the print of $7.99,  for a 4% loss.  It bottomed ten minutes later, at 7.91, and is back up to $8.11, unchanged.      

[calven]

First off let me start by saying our old charts had some slightly inaccurate annotations. Looking back the false breakout really occured at 8.55 NOT 8.95 as our charts suggested.... the higher resistance line was drawn on "reaction highs" which generally have little volume shown by the "price by volume" bars on the chart below.

Next I would like to point out that a breakdown of a LT ascending triangle is an EXTREME sell signal. (Even a good enough short signal) That "soft area" in the chart could easily get filled if 6.00 is broken. I am obviously talking about long term all things held equal fundamentally.  I suspect 7.00 then 6.00 for first and second support... I am considering shorting this myself. 

[setravis]

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I assume it was bought out.