Post your pick HERE (2nd Edition)

[Ramsburg]

Stock Picking Contest (2nd Edition - From 12/Dec/2005 to 10/Jan/2006)

To Submit your Stock Pick, reply to this Topic following the Standard Layout:

1)   Stock Pick
(Ticker & Name of the Company)

2)   Reason behind this pick
(a Text with at least 100 words, featuring the reasons of your stock pick)

3)   Stock Chart
(Click in additional options, browse for your chart file GIF/JPG/PNG and add it to your post, if you don't have a Charting software, we suggest you copy a chart from www.stockcharts.com)

Important: Do not use this thread to another purpose rather than submitting your stock pick. For organizational purposes, any reply that is not a stock pick will be deleted.

[miris]

SIFY - Sify Ltd (NASDAQ NM)


Sify has come a long way in Internet, network and e-commerce services in India with end-to-end solutions and a comprehensive range of products delivered over a common Internet backbone infrastructure across 99 cities in India. Today, it has alliances with global players like Verisign, Cisco Systems, Global Crossing, Asia Netcom, Btn Access, and Refco.
Sify is an apt example of how technological innovations can be tuned to business needs.
Comfortably placed, Sify seems to be poised to capitalise on Indian and international growth opportunities. According to a recent IDC report, the Indian IP VPN market is growing at a CAGR of 31 percent and is expected to touch $181 million by 2008. The Confederation of Indian Industry predicts that the broadband subscribers' market will grow to 3 million by 2007 and above 10 million by 2010.

Don't forget increasing volume in last three months and recent new max 52 weeks

P.S. i'm italian 

[john b mcginnis]

My stock pick is:   CRYSTALLEX INTL CP (AMEX: KRY)

I found this Company when 3StocksonFire was heavy into gold stocks this Fall. The Company's stock took a dramatic drop in Sept. on the news:

Chavez: Gov't Will Nix Mining Licenses
Thursday September 22, 12:43 pm ET 
Chavez Says Gov't Will Cancel All Mining Licenses, Stop Issuing New Ones to Foreign Cos.

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said his government will cancel all mining licenses and stop issuing new ones to foreign companies.
Chavez's remark in a speech late Wednesday expanded on his past statements that the government would eliminate licenses, or concessions, on stalled mining projects or those that violate the law.
"I want to tell the country I've decided, after looking at this and that, to cancel all mining concessions.
Then the good news came out:
AP
Venezuela Backs Off Mining License Threat
Friday September 23, 6:15 pm ET 
Venezuela Will Not Cancel Mining Licenses of Foreign Companies Abiding Law, Lawmaker Says


CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- Foreign companies abiding by Venezuelan law will not have their mining licenses canceled by the government, a Venezuelan lawmaker said Friday.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Wednesday that his government had decided to cancel all mining licenses and stop issuing new ones to foreign companies, accusing them of gaining rights to mines and leaving them idle.
And more good news,
AP
Venezuelan Lawmakers Back Mining Permit
Monday October 10, 3:48 pm ET 
Venezuelan Lawmakers Call for Government to Grant Mining Permits to Canada's Crystallex


CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- Venezuelan lawmakers called for the government to grant permits to Canadian company Crystallex International Corp. so that it can begin mining the country's largest gold mine. "It's urgent that (the government) grants the respective permits," members of Congress concluded in a special mining report dated Oct. 4 that was posted on the Venezuelan National Assembly's Web site. Venezuela has said it will turn over idle mines to small-scale miners as part of a review of all mining concessions and contracts. The Canadian company has said it is awaiting an environmental permit to begin production at the Las Cristinas mine.

My plan is to sell at the resistance level of around 3.90 to 4.00(On a yearly chart) and/or at the news release Environmental permit granted to begin production at the Las Cristinas mine.(the permit could be granted prior to the start of the stock picking contest). I still have five days to the start!
I bought in @ 1.50, I'm sitting on a good return at this point! I believe the trend is bullish, And, will continue to increase.

Market cap: 419.61 M
KRY is currently above the 20 and 50 day EMA and just below the 100 day EMA


http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=KRY,uu[s,a]

[poorman1]

DOC - Digital Angel is my pick

Reasons for the pick:

DOC has both characteristics of mania and value growth. 

1) U.S. Senate is getting involved to urge the USDA to employ RFID technology in both beef and poultry tracking.  Regulators are pushing for a National ID System.  Also, Japan is lifting it's 2-year ban on importing U.S. beef.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051130/law061.html?.v=36

2) The stock recently experienced a high volume day, due to the news (see chart) and has experienced a series of hammer support sessions after the news.  The 50 DMA has been crossed on high volume.

3) The market cap is a little high at $140MM, but revenues have been increasing each year and is on the verge of profitability.  In fact, take out R&D expenditures and they are profitable.

4) DOC is also considered an aid in the bird-flu fight.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/051205/1199134.html?.v=1

5) Pet indentification commercials are beginning to appear on television stations, which marks the opening of a new market that hasn't been commercially viable until now.
http://www.homeagainid.com/

[aba46041]

   NSTC iis breaking out of resistance at 10.00


******* MSG From Ramsburg *********
Please read the rules first.
*********************************

[owen654321]

Stock Pick: Middleby (MIDD)

I don't enjoy the whiplash experienced with most micro-caps or high beta stocks (thus my pick of KOMG last month).  Like Komag last month, I've already purchased Middleby (MIDD) in my personal account, and it seems to be out of the gates before the start of the race... I am sitting on a nice 7% gain already.  Still, I will pick it for the contest.

Reasons for the pick:

(Reason 0) Market cap of $641 million.  No whiplash.  Check.
(Reason 1) I agree with Jim Jubak's assessment of possible sector rotation going into 2006 in his article entitled, "5 stocks ready to ring in 2006" http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P137243.asp
(Reason 2) The point is to be ahead of the game.  Once I find a sector that is not receiving a whole lot of attention, I look for (a) value - I don't invest in highly overvalued companies, (b) either good performance that shows no sign of slowing (the stock price is not taking a major dive) or indication that the stock chart sucks worse than imaginable and might be improving soon, (c) some sort of smaller news that indicates all is going as planned.

-----

(a) Here is the value:
2006 expected earnings between $4.36 and $4.60 per share.  Recently revised upwards by 6 analysts to a mean of $4.49/share.  This gives me a forward P/E of about 18.  I like.  Quarterly revenue growth is 14.6% year over year. 

(b) Performance (see chart below)

(c) Smaller, good news keeps coming out:
http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2005/mft05120806.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y

Anticipated news (personally anticipated news that could give the stock a boost):
Possible announcement of a stock split
Hint of future dividends (est. 2007-2008)
...and a nice bonus: High short interest: 12.6% of the float was short as of Nov 10th (wish I had Dec. numbers).  Short ratio of 7.7.

And here's the chart:

[betterwheel1]

Stock:  SIR / Sirva Incorporated

Sirva is a recovering blow up with accounting restatements behind it.  Majority owner is CD&R and they drove a rollup in the moving / relocation industry.  Primary product historically was traditional relocation.  Sirva owns North American, Allied, Pickfords in the UK and others.  Sirva is driving a back to basics model with sales ongoing of non core product areas such as insurance, records storage and others.

The primary product going forward is the fixed fee relocation product with an outsourced angle for corporate HR departments.  The product is a soup to nuts risk free product for corporations moving mid and senior level employees on an annual basis.  Sirva will take over all the events affecting an employee relocation including buying the employees home and taking all risks from the client in disposing of the home.  This allows the corporate client to outsource the complete relocation process to Sirva for a fee fixed cost to the client.

Revenues in the fixed fee segment are growing rapidly while the traditonal relocation product is growing moderately.  Margins are strong and growing in the fixed fee product.  FCF is strong with the elimination of the non core product areas.

Stock price was mid 20's before the blow up and is now at the tipping point of recovery in the mid 7's.

[bamboo]

1)   Stock Pick: -------------- DROOY  Drdgold Ltd (NASDAQ SC)

2)   Reason behind this pick

we are in for a big gold bull market that is already out performing all the other market sectors, and likely to continue to do so in 2006.

Whereas most of the North American gold stocks have been rising consistently for the past three years the South Africans, due to the strong Rand, have been in huge sideways trading ranges. They are just breaking upside out of these range bound situations and are likely to produce a far superior performance to their North American counterparts for the next phase.

Elliott moves in a series of repeating five waves with a corrective wave in between each set of five waves. when the market entered wave 3 we can expect fireworks on the upside. That is exactly where we are on the JSE Gold index at this point of time.

Goldfields is a typical example of this picture. It has recently broken upside against the XAU and HUI gold indexes indicating a superior strength for the foreseeable future. The same strength data applies to Harmony and Anglogold. DROOY looks even better. There is a reverse head and shoulders pattern that is currently forming the right shoulder. A break above the neckline resistance at $1.50 indicates an upside to $2.40 as the short term target.

3)   Stock Chart

[sebfr]

1)   Stock Pick: HDY - Hyperdynamics Corp. AMEX 2.150

2)   Reason behind this pick:

Fundamentals :
Hyperdynamics Corporation. The Group principal activity is to provide oil and gas company services such as seismic data management and conversion of seismic data from tape media to modern media, such as DVD computer technology. During the year the Group acquired, HYD Resources Corp.

News :
The company obtained the rights to drill for oil off the West African coast in a deal with the Republic of Guinea. The stock traded extremely well when seismic data and core samples indicated a high probability of significant hydrocarbon reserves. In a weird twist of bad luck, HDY was refused a permit when they applied to drill test wells, and notified their arrangement with Guinea was off. Well, apparently, it's back on, and the stock has been trading very well. It could be good for a trade, and has a lot of potential longer term.

Hyperdynamics Receives Letter From The Republic of Guinea; The Vice President Returns to Guinea to Meet With Officials
12/8/2005 10:00:02 AM
HOUSTON, Dec 08, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Hyperdynamics Corporation's (HDY) SCS Corporation (SCS) has received an official letter from the Government of Guinea.
In the letter, the Government graciously apologized for the delays in the handling of our situation. They communicated the sincere desire to make our working relationship transparent and open. They also communicated that they consider this to be extremely important and in the best interest of both the United States of America and The Republic of Guinea. In response to this letter, Mr. Famourou Kourouma, Vice President for Guinea Affairs, is returning immediately to Guinea to meet with officials.

Since September Mr. Kourouma has worked to clean up and rectify the problems caused by the fraudulent actions of Joseph Delawa and USOil. In June of this year the company requested a permit to drill four (4) exploration wells. The request for the permits was never delivered to the Government and a fraudulent termination letter was forwarded to USOil and subsequently to the company. Mr. Kourouma has since advised all levels of Government as to the conspiracy and SCS has applied directly for a permit. It is Mr. Kourouma's mission to assert the company's rights and to advance the company's drilling program by obtaining those drilling permits either under the existing 2002 PSA or possibly by signing a new one.
Mr. Kourouma stated, "In all my many meetings with various Government officials we have been given tremendous support. It has been consistently expressed to me that we are the company to do the work and they desire us to continue."
Kent Watts, Hyperdynamics' Chief Executive Officer, said, "Through our in-country team of Guinea nationals, led by Mr. Kourouma, we're building an ever closer relationship with the Guinea Government. The strong relationship we are building now will be the foundation that will allow us to succeed in our exploration efforts. I am very excited that the Government contacted us at this time and am optimistic about Famourou's return to Guinea."
Safe Harbor Statement: Statements contained herein that are not historical are forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ.
SOURCE: Hyperdynamics Corporation

Technicals :
all indicators are green....
White marabuzu
Close above moving average (50) and price above MA200
+DI > -DI and ADX < 20 -> signal to buy...
ROC is positive aND ChaikinOscillator is positive
Ascending triangle breakout (RSI) and on price
MACD is positive and RSI > 50
Chart pattern : Cup and handle
Eliott wave : Beginning of the third wave
Fibonaccio ratio of retracement = 69.1 (close to perfect ratio of 68.1 !!)

3) Stock Chart:

Time Frame: 10 months
Indicators: Price, MACD,  50 day ma, trendlines, volume, RSI

Start: $2.151
Furure : we will see ??

[la-onda]

1) AOB

2)
we all know this wonderful company, please check:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1136.new#new
quotation from link:
Fundamental Quantitative Analysis:
There are so many reasons to like American Oriental Bioengineering, in fact if there were a single Chinese stock out there that I would recommend, it would be American Oriental Bioengineering. American Oriental Bioengineering has been a major story of the summer, a story which has started to turn heads on wallstreet just a little bit. AOB hit a 52-week low back in May, $1.02, at that point people seemed to realize that here you had a company which between years of 2002-2004 had a record of increasing revenues from $10.2 million for the full year 2002, to 32.0 million in 2004, an increase of 213% in 2 years.

The company has diluted the share pool over this 2-year period, EPS growth is more modest but still astounding. EPS grew from 0.106 to 0.231, this represents at 118% increase in EPS for the period, or a compound annual growth rate of 48%. This is an amazing story of value creation. Let us assume that they can maintain this growth, this would imply that if their P/E ratio remains static, that you will get a 48% return on investment. This high rate of growth makes AOB very attractive to growth oriented investors.

Value investors should also find AOB to be a very attractive buy. There is only one analyst covering the stock, William Lyons of Westminster Securities. He estimates earnings at $15,400,000 for the year. Including the dilution of the recent private placement, AOB will have 56.5 million shares outstanding, there are also 3.83 million warrants outstanding (60.3 million diluted). This puts EPS at $0.273 cents per share ($0.255 diluted), and at yesterday's closing price of 4.43, represents a forward 2005 P/E ratio of 16.23 (17.37 diluted). While this is by no means the same bargain it was back at $1.02, this company is still selling for cheap. Consider the following, as of July 29, 2005, the P/E of the S&P 500 was 20.26, according to analyst estimates this represents a forward 2005 P/E ratio of 18.06. These figures were taken from the Standard and Poor's website. The growth of the S&P earnings may break double-digits this year, but will not be more than 15%, yet it is trading at a forward P/E premium compared to a company with excellent management and a significantly higher growth rate. This does not make sense, and I consider AOB to be significantly undervalued.

AOB is one of the premier Chinese stocks being traded on US exchanges today, in terms of Chinese small caps it is one of the blue chips. As such, AOB is dual listed on the American Stock Exchange and the Pacific Stock Exchange and its Arca-Ex affiliate. Its options are also traded on the Pacific stock exchange, though they are quite expensive, and I'd much rather just own the stock. Pursuant to listing on these exchanges, AOB has more stringent corporate governance standards than many Chinese companies listed on other exchanges.
&
Strategic Vision and Key Developments

AOB hopes to execute a 2 pronged growth strategy. Firstly, they will seek organic growth through more extensive cross-selling and penetration of existing markets. Their retail outlet in Hong Kong is an example of a large potential contributor of organic growth going forward. Management sees their distribution network as a key success factor and seeks to leverage and expand this asset going forward. AOB currently has more than 10,000 points of sale, which they hope to grow to 20,000 within a year.

Secondly, AOB also seeks to grow through acquisition by purchasing proven products and greater distribution capabilities; integration of these will lead to growth of the top and bottom line. Management feels that they are well positioned to take advantage of accretive acquisitions through the privatization of state assets and bring added efficiency and increase the value and output of those assets. AOB is well financed to pursue their acquisition strategy. Assuming the recent private placement goes through, AOB will have $79 million in cash. This will put them in a position to make significant acquisitions going forward. AOB's market is currently fragmented, and AOB can help guide consolidation in the industry. The acquisition of a more diversified product base will also reduce the risk of AOB's revenue stream and would further enhance the value of AOB's extensive distribution network.
AOB is gaining more legitimacy in the capital markets. The recent private placement is an example of this, where Morgan Stanley picked up $20,736,000 worth of shares and warrants. Such significant support from Morgan Stanley is a positive mark on their legitimacy, and having such a well recognized institutional investor on side may bring further institutional attention to the stock. AOB has also begun holding quarterly conference calls in order to improve transparency and communication with shareholders.

[basonista]

1) HEB

2)  From a purely TA standpoint, HEB has been doing a few things of interest.  Since the move up in late October, HEB has been trading in a descending channel which it appears to be trying to break out of now.  We are also looking at newer movement in an ascending triangle which should have an initial breakout around the $2.65 level.  As David pointed out in his thread on HEB, it has also been trading in a symmetrical triangle.  All of these technical formations are bullish continuation patterns which bodes well for HEB.

We have also had some insider buying on HEB recently so one can assume that something is about to happen here possibly because of upcoming news on Ampligen.  We do know that insiders can sell for many reasons but there is only one reason they buy - they expect their stock to go up!  David has posted his usual excellent information on HEB at http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3042.msg35630#msg35630.

[wrangler]

Ticker symbol : ALOY
Name : Alloy Inc.

Reason behind pick
 This stock is in an upward bullish trend and has moved above MACD centerline since their ouarterly report of record profits of $7.3 million•
Alloy 3Q Profit Soars to $7.3 Million
AP (Mon, Nov 21)  
They cater to the teens in the apparel industry
BUSINESS SUMMARY  
Alloy, Inc. operates as a media, marketing services, direct marketing, and retail company. The company principally offers apparel and accessories to boys and girls between the ages of 10 and 24 in the United States.
New Star Analyst Rankings for ALLOY INC
StarMine (Wed, Nov 23)  
Most recent news
Press Release Source: Alloy, Inc.
Alloy Revises When-Issued Trading Date Expectation for dELiA*s, Inc. Common Stock to the Trading Day Immediately Following the S-1 Registration Statement Effectiveness Date
Friday December 9, 9:00 am ET  
Alloy Shares Traded Prior to the Registration Statement Effectiveness Date Will Trade with Due Bills for dELiA*s, Inc. Shares

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 9, 2005--Alloy, Inc. ("Alloy") (Nasdaq: ALOY - News), a media, marketing services, direct marketing and retail company primarily targeting the dynamic Generation Y population, today reconfirmed that its Board of Directors has approved the spin-off of its wholly-owned subsidiary, dELiA*s, Inc. ("dELiA*s"), which currently operates Alloy's merchandising business, and will be distributing to Alloy stockholders all outstanding shares of dELiA*s common stock owned by Alloy. Barring unforeseen events, the distribution is expected to occur on December 19, 2005 to Alloy stockholders of record at the close of business on December 7, 2005. Ex-dividend trading in Alloy common stock (i.e., reflecting the dELiA*s spin-off) will commence on the trading date immediately following the effectiveness date of the dELiA*s registration statement on Form S-1. Alloy common stock which trades after the December 7, 2005 record date and until the commencement of ex-dividend trading will trade with due bills that entitle purchasers to receive the shares of dELiA*s common stock to be issued in the spin-off pursuant to the established spin-off distribution ratio.  

[ehos]

1) BMD

2) I don't have any cool technical reasons to pick BMD, except that it's going upwards.  It might be doing some funky stuff like golden triangle cross, cupage or whatever, but I don't really care.

They don't make any money.  They might make money one day.    Well, actually, they will lose alot of money before they ever hope to make anything. 

BMD is in a very unsexy sector.  Rocks.  They like to call them 'aggregates', which is another word for the stuff they use in concrete (or is it cement?). 

Oh yeah, it's in a really cold and boring place up north in Canada somewhere.  I have no idea why people would buy this stock, but I'm picking it!

I can't say as I know very much about BMD, even their name sounds wierd, 'Birch Mountain Resources.'   I thought Birch was a tree?  Hmmm.  And there's no mountains anywhere near where they are located.  Again, very confusing!

They have 30Million cash, seems alot right?  But that could be gone before this contest is even over!   But, it's almost an 6 bagger in one year.  Wheee!  Don't you love the stock market?? I DO!!  So BMD is my pick.  It probably won't win the contest, but did I mention it's almost an 6 bagger? 

3) Here's a chart..

[KCScott]

DESC

It's really, really cold here in Kansas City, and Natural Gas prices are at record highs.
so while I'm shivering, I'm thinking Alternative energy stocks make a really good play.

Tops on my list of AE stock has and will continue to be DESC

Distributed Energy Systems Corp. engages in the creation and delivery of products and solutions to the to the decentralized energy markets. The company''s subsidiary, Proton Energy Systems, Inc., engages in the development of technology related to hydrogen production and fuel cell applications. Distributed Energy''s another subsidiary, Northern Power Systems, Inc., engages in the design and integration of projects with an array of technologies, including renewables, combustion, and batteries. It also develops, manufactures, and installs utility grade wind turbines. Its products include EPC services, integrated power systems, on-site power systems, and on-site renewably powered systems. Northern sells its products to domestic and international customers. Distributed Energy Systems Corp. was formed in 1996 and is headquartered in Wallingford, Connecticut.

From a fundamental viewpoint they have achieved profitability this year and the CEO has stated they will continue to grow without dillution of the stock. For the year, DESC is up over 300%.

From a technical viewpoint (and for this contest) DESC is down close to it's 50 DMA on lower volume over the past few weeks and has filled the Nov. 7 Gap



Each time this stock has touched the 50 DMA it has turned and I see no fundamental reason to believe it will not make the bounce begining the week of 12-5

Furthermore, I have reason to believe a well known Speculator plans to give a ringing endorsement to the stock next week:

[Hazmat]

My selection is Gander Mountain Company   GMTN

This company had heavy inside buying in the second half of November.  Current stockprice of $7.40 is less than book and price to book is way lower than the indusrty average.

The price is a fraction of sales and this too, is much lower than the industry average.

GMTN has no long term debt

Gander Mountain opened nine new stores and relocated and consolidated two
stores in the third quarter, bringing its total store count to 98 at the end of
the period. The company anticipates opening six to eight new stores in 2006,
including two relocations.

Share price has appreciated 28% since I bought it on November 28. I believe is has much more upside to be closer in line with the specialty retail industry.