Post your pick HERE (2nd Edition)

[VikingFan]

MVCO had a clear breakout from its Cup & Handle pattern on Thursday. Below is an illustration of this chart.  The depth of the right side of the cup is a little over 5 points. That means the target of this pattern is around 17-17.50.  The Point & Figure chart shows a target of $21.50.

MVCO's blowout report on 11/8 justifies a much higher price. They reported .60 per share, a $20/share sales backlog, over $25 million cash, and have increased working capital from $1.8 million a year ago to over $20 million now. Based on the fundamentals, this stock should be well over $20. With the average PE for the industry around 27, and some much higher (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/in?s=MVCO), you could argue MVCO should be worth 27 times annualized $2.40 EPS, or over $64 a share. Even if you assume future quarters will only be half as good as this quarter, that would still be $1.50 in earnings for the year, which should justify a $40.50 price with a 27 PE. As a turnaround story, it could take a couple more quarters of great results for MVCO to completely earn investors' confidence and get to a more appropriate valuation, but the turnaround started with last quarter's great report, making this 2 stellar reports indicating a strong turnaround.

[1reilly]

I'll need news to win with this one short term but I want to own for the next two quarters.
Smith Micro Software- SMSI
The company is a developer & marketer of wireless communication, broadband and utility software products for multiple OS platforms.
Highlites from 3rd Q issued Nov 10th:
94% increase in Revenues - 6.9mil vs 3.6mil ( this inludes only 2 months of Allume systems acq. of 2.2mil)
Net Income increased to 1.9mil vs 1.1mil
EPS increased to 8c vs 6c ( with 4.6mil more shares outstanding related to Allume acquisition)
Sequential growth- Revenues=+107%. Net Income=+146%
Record backlog
9mo 05
Revs- 12.3mil vs 9.2mil----- Net inc-2.5mil vs 1.9mil------EPS fully diluted 11c vs 10c
Cash = 20.4mil
What I like: A. recent acquisition of Allume adds consistent cash flow. B. Partnerships with Nokia and other Majors will lead to growth of revs. C. cash on hand should lead to more acquisitions. D. management's guidance has been factual and conservative. E. 4th Q should exceed 3rd quarter. F.business sector is on fire. G. Insider sales are related to a divorce and an acquisition not business. H. Lawsuit is related to a Break-up fee, tells me company will only spend money for shareholder value acquisition. I. small market cap. J. only 23.2mil shares outstanding. K. Stock down from a spike high 8 following earnings to 6.50.
Will this stock win a 30 day contest probably not but I'll buy it around 6.50, look for support around 6 and hope to take out that 8 level someday soon.
Sometimes fundamentals throw a curve ball to all you TAs.
Now Ramsburg I Need your help. I tried to post a chart and lost the whole text so I'm posting the text. I do have a chart over in the chart thread which worked as a test. If you can move it here great. If I don't qualify because no chart here that's fine > i just hope some members find this stock of value to them.

[rickjust]

my pick for the contest is gigamedia, gigm.
this did well in the last contest but i still see more upside for this company . finally broke through to new highs of 2.85 and now , i believe, consolidating before it goes on to my target price of 3.50  ( hope it doesn't move in the next couple of days!) with a new aquistion to be anounced sometime this month gigm is atracting attention (as per 3stocksonfire portfolio)
good luck to all,
maxi

[akclide]

My Pick is PMTR,
                Technically it is showing a very nice and smooth cup and a handle.The cup has taken a long time to make giving it more strength to the up side.Recent price crossed over the top of the handle (positive).Although it does have a few resisting points overhead but the total picture looks so positive that I have to pick it.
                Fundamantly,WE know that we are in a tech rally and what company does perfectly fits the rally mode as well as the christmashopping time(consumer product parts mfg.)Pemstar, Inc. provides electronics manufacturing services to original equipment manufacturers in the communications, computing and data storage, and industrial and medical equipment sectors worldwide. It offers a range of new product design, prototype, test, and related engineering solutions; functional test equipment, process automation, and replication solutions; and manufacturing and fulfillment solutions, including printed circuit board assembly and test solutions, flexible circuit assembly and test solutions, systems assembly and test solutions, and precision electromechanical assembly and test solutions. In addition, the company provides product configuration and distribution services. Pemstar's aftermarket services consist of repair, replacement, refurbishment, remanufacturing, exchange, systems upgrade, and spare part manufacturing for storage subsystems. The company supports its service offerings with a supply chain management system, program management, and information technology systems. Pemstar was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Rochester, Minnesota. Competitors, comparison table also gives us a great feed back.



   DIRECT COMPETITOR COMPARISON   

PMTR CLS SANM SLR Industry
Market Cap: 74.14M 2.41B 2.23B 3.33B 155.16M
Employ­ees: 3,346 46,000 N/A 41,000 272
Qtrly Rev Growth (yoy): 33.70% -8.30% -16.30% -21.10% 9.00%
Revenue (ttm): 767.64M 8.73B 11.73B 10.44B 130.48M
Gross Margin (ttm): 3.40% 5.74% 5.46% 5.48% 33.10%
EBITDA (ttm): -6.68M 337.50M 432.49M 352.80M 11.68M
Oper Margins (ttm): -3.75% 1.89% 2.15% 1.53% 3.23%
Net Income (ttm): -56.62M -841.70M -996.25M -10.50M 796.96K
EPS (ttm): -1.313 -3.724 -1.914 0.004 0.07
P/E (ttm): N/A N/A N/A 910.00 24.79
PEG (5 yr expected): 3.90 0.92 0.64 1.10 1.10
P/S (ttm): 0.09 0.28 0.19 0.32 1.27

[Se7en]

1. SMTX - SMTC Corporation

2. Reason

SMTC Corporation provides electronics manufacturing services to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) primarily in North America, Europe, Asia, and Mexico. Its services comprise product development, which include product design, prototyping, and qualification testing; product assembly and test services; and interconnect, which consists of design, development, and manufacture of interconnect assemblies, such as optical and electrical cable and harness assemblies. The company also offers sheet metal fabrication services used in the assembly of a range of electronic enclosures. It offers its services to OEMs in the industrial, enterprise computing and networking, and communications sectors. SMTC was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Markham, Canada.

SMTX is currently oversold and it on the 200MA, it has heavy support around 1.50, stochastics are also turning bullish. Hoping that it will spike back up like it did last time!

3. Stock chart

[small_investor]

Hello again in the 2nd round....

For the second round of the 3StocksOnFire Stock Picking Contest  I have a new (top)pick, it´s an NASDAQ listed biotech company called AASTROM BIOSCIENCES - ASTM

Some facts about ASTM:   Web Site: http://www.aastrom.com

Aastrom Biosciences was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
It is a development stage company, develops patient-specific products for the repair or regeneration of human tissues, utilizing its proprietary adult stem cell technology. Its lead products include tissue repair cells (TRCs), which are a mixture of bone marrow-derived adult stem and progenitor cells, produced outside of the body or 'ex vivo' from a small amount of bone marrow taken from the patient. The company also offers AastromReplicell System, a patented, integrated system of instrumentation and single-use consumable kits for the commercial production of human cells. Aastrom Biosciences is developing TRCs for the treatment of severe bone fractures, ischemic vascular disease, jaw reconstruction, and spine fusion. It also focuses on the utilization of TRCs in the areas of bone regeneration and vascular regeneration in limb ischemia resulting from diabetes and other diseases. The company has a strategic alliance with Musculoskeletal Transplant Foundation to develop and commercialize treatments for the regeneration of tissues, such as bone and cartilage.


The Chart: seems to be a very nice constellation for me, but have a look for yourself..
(whenever ASTM goes up - they do this in a very nice way...)




...hope the bottom is completed and ASTM goes up.

[calven]

1) DRL - Doral Financial

2) Doral looks drastically oversold and is severely undervalued given current fundamental numbers are correct. My last pick UBET was awesome technically speaking but fell to a poor conference call. Therefore I am picking a fundamental pick this time around in DRL...

[masternic35]

Hi all,

My pick is DSTI  aka Daystar Technologies
It is at the early stages of manufactoring it's GEN I Solar Cells
They're a rapidly expanding small cap listed on the nasdaq.

The reasons :
1) Solar Energy is hype at the moment, see oil price, see gov incentives ...
2) It looks to me from all I read that Daystar has one of the finest products out there
3) they're about to start production any moment now
4) the current stock price is only reflecting the risk that they might not achieve prod & shîp. So once the news come out that everthing is going fine, I expect this stock to boom.
5) The PR is always in line with the achievements, they don't talk much but always do as they say, no more no less.
6) they've already starting preparing for GEN II & III

+... other reasons

ok, chart time ...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=dsti



and good luck to you all

[kuepper]

The stock his volatile, and is hitting a 5-year low. I think it will rebound.

[shipman]

NMGC-- NeoMagic Corp.--Huge Gap Super small Float- Turn around story--Embedded DRAM Sony
     This seems to be a very risky trade, buying such a huge
gap.  And, being such I probably wouldn't lay down a bunch of
cash on it monday.  But, we are playing for percentage,  one pick,
one sell.  I think a month of time ahead of this pick could work.
Mondays open may be a good price when considering the time frame.
Even if this stock reverses tomorrow, I think the correction would be short
lived.  This stock has a total o/s of 6.73 mill, float unknown.  This stock
could rip either way.  Again hypothetical money on this one.
     The news on this stock is that they reversed last years 3q loss this year.  Revenues 8 million vs. 300k (previous 3Q).  Wow!
As you can see on the weekly chart, the stock was way up at 20
before the negative news drove it down to 1.70.  The stock was down .29
Friday after hours, hopefully they will drive it down further before the open.

[Athakinu]

My pick is IINT.
Indus International, Inc., a small-cap company in the technology sector.
Indus International, Inc. engages in the development, licensing, implementation, support, and hosting of service delivery management (SDM) solutions. These software solutions enable clients to manage their customers, assets, workforce, spare parts inventory, tools, and documentation.
This stock is clearly in an uptrending channel. I am hoping it could break out of 4 (2 years high).
The stock is under heavy accumulation by financial institutions.

[dwest718]

Alright I'm gonna go with the same thing as I did last time ... looks even more solid than it did last time... My pick is CYTO.

Up 8% and closed near highs with a huge bullish engulfing on double avg volume (and touched the 50 dma) on Friday.  Looks to have found a good bottom with support from a huge price volume bar and several days of solid volume.  Positive MACD and bouncing RSI indicate strength.

A little bit of resistance at 3.45 but once through that level should see some covering by shorts.  That will help it close a gap to 4.00.  Not much else in the way of resistance until around 5.00.  On top of that no earnings to flub anything up and while news could come out, recent releases have been fairly positive so I'm not too worried about that either.

Chose CYTO over SWIR and MZ.  I would have picked CABG but it did not meet the requirements so... CYTO is my pick.  I do own it in case anyone wants to know.

[saffeysite1]

STEL

STEL Stellent Inc, Makes content management software solutions.  Stellents software enables customers to  create, manage, share, and store information ( focused around websites ).  We suspect there will be a continuing demand for the management of information, and Stellent has a decent customer roster so far, ( Merrill Lynch, Proctor and Gamble, Bayer, Coca Cola to name a few ) .  The forward earnings estimates for Stellent have been increased by more than 35% in the last 7 days.

[ELR]

I am going with PVX, Provident Energy Trust.  It is a Canadian gas royalty trust which pays a healthy monthly dividend (10%) of which 85% is tax free to US shareholders and they are just completing financing for the acquisition of the natural gas liquids ("NGL") business of EnCana Corporation for a purchase price of approximately $697.0 million and announced this past week its move of its U.S. listing to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) from the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and expects trading of its trust units to commence on the NYSE effective December 16, 2005.   With natural gas prices shooting ever higher and the entire nothern half of the US at freezing temperatures, what's not to like ? 

elr

[phonepro26]

MY PICK IS **TWOG**

Great News for TWOG in A/H - Transworld Oil and Gas Ltd. Announces Completion of Negotiations for the Acquisition of 100% of TWOG
Friday December 9, 4:51 pm ET

HOUSTON, TX--(MARKET WIRE)--Dec 9, 2005 -- Transworld Oil and Gas Ltd. (Other OTC:TWOG.PK - News) announced today that it has completed negotiations for the share acquisition of all shares of TWOG. Shareholders will receive shares in the new company with a minimum value of $0.085 per twog share.

Management is recommending acceptance of this offer and mailings will be sent to shareholders shortly to provide the opportunity to vote on this deal. Management anticipates the completion of this offer prior to the end of February 2006.

About Transworld Oil and Gas Ltd.

Transworld Oil and Gas Ltd. intends to become a worldwide company specializing in the extraction and production of oil and gas. The company's vision is to establish and enhance the company's foundation for future growth by developing properties that provide a balance between short- and long-term reserves in both the oil and natural gas markets. Oil and gas-related activities will include acquiring additional properties with potential for development and drilling. The company will work to establish and maintain a significant inventory of undeveloped prospects. The company emphasis is on production, cash flow and reserve value by exploring for, developing, and purchasing oil and gas properties worldwide.

Contact:

M. Mancini
Tel: (281) 854-2374

Source: Transworld Oil and Gas


Do your own DD before making any/all stock buying decisions.GLTY