BRCD - Sector: Technology---Industry: Computer Storage Devices

[Melf Elf]

hi,
a lot of selling the last few days, all sells at the bid but doesn't seem to push the price down hard.
hhmmm,
sittin' and waitin'
maxi

maxi,

This has been a real Bull vs. Bear struggle in BRCD, hasn't it? 

Against a market backdrop that has entirely favored the bears until yesterday (the NAZ was down eight days in a row), the BRCD Bulls haven't given up the ghost just yet.

Tuesday, June 12, it looked like "stick a fork in BRCD."  The Bears had FOUR scores:

1. The Bears took out the Ascending line at 5.80 (blue up trendline). SCORE

2. The Bears took out the prior low of that pattern, at 5.76 (blue #3) SCORE

3. The Bears took out 5.64, which was validated support at the bottom of the channel (green #4) SCORE

4. The Bears took out the up trendline (purple) off the November, 2005 low.  SCORE

Ugly day for the BRCD Bulls. 

All that was left for the Bulls was DOUBLE support, at 5.42, which was the May 17 low, and which also was the bottom of the channel (green).  The high on the day was 5.87, and after FOUR Bear scores, 5.87 "should be" gone.

It isn't.

Wednesday, June 13, the Bulls brought it back and closed it at broken DOUBLE support, at 5.64.  That also looked like the Bulls should be done.  "Former support 'should be' resistance."

It wasn't.

Thursday, June 14, the Bulls managed a print of 5.88, a penny above the June 12 high of 5.87, the day when the Bears had FOUR scores.

Although the close only was 5.76, (which is the low at blue #3), that's a very poor perfomance on the part of the Bears to allow all 4 of those Wednesday scores to get taken out on a print basis.

The general market has been trashed, and BRCD still is 6% above DOUBLE support at 5.42.  I'd be cautious being short this stock, particularly if it sells off again to 5.64, which was DOUBLE support, and if it holds there this time.

That's what BRCD did after it broke the channel (green) on May 15.  It rallied (like yesterday's rally to 5.88), then it held at the bottom of the channel (green #4) on May 22.

That's also what BRCD has done so far with broken DOUBLE support at 5.64.  Yesterday, BRCD opened smack on that trendline, and held it all day.  The open was 5.65.  The low was 5.63..

The Bears obviously need to take out 5.64 again.  Then 5.42.  Then the bottom of the channel (green), which looks to be at about 5.37 for today, June 14.

Good luck, guys! 





 

[rickjust]

hi,
thanks melf, and terlisa. got out yesterday at 570. didn't like the action yesterday. too bullish short term. all that selling with very little price movement. may look for another entry down the track. if not then there is always another one on the horizon. i only trade one or two stocks at a time so a can focus my energy. i don't like to diversify too much . i tried that and it just wasn't my style.
but i have to protect capital and profit, so i like to lock in profits. i may not get rich but i get to keep playing! ( or i might get rich)


glta still holding.
maxi

[nullzero]

got stopped out of two of my shorts today ;(

[Melf Elf]

hi,
thanks melf, and terlisa. got out yesterday at 570. didn't like the action yesterday. too bullish short term. all that selling with very little price movement.
maxi

maxi,

Nice going.  Applaud.  

The Bears didn't follow through to the downside on those 4 Scores, and  this morning, the Bulls again have taken out the Bears' "Four Score High" of 5.87 from Wednesday.  

You've got a gain and you always can re-short it, or play something else, as you say.  

[Melf Elf]

The Bears didn't follow through to the downside on those 4 Scores, and  this morning, the Bulls again have taken out the Bears' "Four Score High" of 5.87 from Wednesday.  

The Bulls are capitalizing on the Bears allowing them back in above 5.64, and above the "Four Score High" of 5.87.  BRCD has rallied all the way back to last Friday's high of 6.06.

[Terliso]

I'm not covering yet.... I'm willing to take a loss if it hits 6.45
Shorted @ 5.92
Stop loss @ 6.45
Loss percentage = - 8.95%

[nullzero]

didnt cover either

[rickjust]

hi,
good luck with this one guys. i am going to keep an eye on it to see if it breaks that 629 area. if not i may short again.
it is surfing the channel at the moment,
maxi

[Melf Elf]

hi,
good luck with this one guys. i am going to keep an eye on it to see if it breaks that 629 area. if not i may short again.
it is surfing the channel at the moment,
maxi

maxi,

Good idea.  If BRCD can get above 6.29-6,35 (the top of the green channel), that would be a DOUBLE breakout to the upside.  The slope of the channel is -0.01522, so subract that amount each day from today's 6.354 to find the breakout points for next week.

EDIT: Slope is -0.01522, not -0.1522

[rickjust]

hi,
joining the party again. short 606
maxi

[Terliso]

I believe there is not much upside potential here...
Though the 200sma is supporting the price on the weekly scale but the slope is still turning down, & The trendline is already broke if it's viewed in CandleVolume

This stock is still BEARISH... no doubt about that
Stop Loss @ 6.45

[Melf Elf]

hi,
joining the party again. short 606

maxi,

You've got some house money to play with from your 5.70 cover of your initial short, so you're in a nice postion here.

Apologies for giving you the wrong data point for the slope of the top of the channel.  Metastock often gives me inaccurate reads when I point my cursor at a trendline, and I didn't calculate it manually until now.

The top of the channel comes in today, June 19, at 6.324.  The slope is 0.0152, so here are the data points along the top of the channel for early this week:

June 19:  6.324
June 20:  6.309
June 21: 6.294

Since the Top of the Ascending Triangle (horizontal blue line) is 6.29-6.30, a print of 6.31 on Tuesday or beyond would be a DOUBLE upside breakout.

Suggestion: I'd cover 6.31 (for today, I'd cover 6.33 since the channel is at 6.324).

Good luck to you, Alister, and to anyone else in the stock.

[rickjust]

hi,
thanks melf.
i have my doubts about brcd and i think i may have been a lttle hasty going short at the point that i did. ( could have made a better entry,this one could be my nemisis, like your bcon) i noticed the last few days that most of the volume was on the sell side i.e. selling off at the bid but the price didn't make a drop .
on the contrary it would often rise a penny or two. looks similar today. i wonder aloud about that.
thanks for your analysis.  often accurate and always apreciated .
maxi

[rickjust]

hi,
as suspected. too much buying pressure pushed brcd above the 50ma at 612 after the thrid atempt today. might have to cover on the next pullback.
maxi

[rickjust]

hi,
brcd now finding upside support at the 50ma at 612.
bulls are winning this one. lots of buying at the ask today in this one.
going to work soon so i might have to bite the bullet and cover. like i said earlier my entry was faulty.
maxi