ONT

[Se7en]

Just sold my ONT @ 1.09 for a 7% gain!

[stockster]

I had sold in the $1.40's and am back in at $1.05...

Looks like it's hammered out a solid bottom and is already trading back above the $1.10 level...

This is such a repeat of last year, the updraft was identical and the downdraft was identical.

Last year it pulled back at $1.48, this year $1.43.

Last year it stopped its pullback at $1.05.  This year, $1.04!


Thanks a lot Melf for all your insights and play-by-play, I owe you!

[boatguy]

$1.20 wall?

[stockster]

Out at $1.19 ... +14c in 4 hours!

I was thinking of holding for a test into the $1.20's, but did not like the look of that massive wall (as boatguy put it) of shares for sale at $1.19/$1.20...

Melf, I really owe you one.  You painted this perfectly - knowing where the critical levels were at $1.10 and $1.20 was absolutely key... 

I have a request, could you please PM me your email address as I'd like to send you something as an expression of my gratitude!

[Melf Elf]

Se7en and Stockster,

Congratulations on your gains, guys!

Stockster, you're very welcome.  Glad if any of it helped.  No need to repay me, besides, I seldom read my e-mail.

Key Resistance for today, January 11:
1.16 - That's where the bottom of the channel comes in today.  It was validated support.  "Former support 'should' become resistance.

1.16 - Arguably, the lows of January 3 and January 9 are the first neckline of a DOUBLE H&S Top, basis the Hourly Chart.  The lows of 1.11 - 1.10 are the second neckline.

If we rally, I'd expect to see quite a few trades at 1.16 get printed today.

In the late going, I wondered if ONT was going to close right at 1.16 . 

The bottom of the channel comes in tomorrow, January 12, at 1.17707, so the close of 1.18 will have ONT smack on the channel, if it opens there.

Nice day for ONT, putting in another Bullish Hammer, and closing above 1.16 resistance, and  back inside the channel.  This is looking much better. 

[laker2000]

Hi guys...thought I'd post a thought on ont......I've had this on and off for a few years now...recently collected between .59 and .90.......my thought on this run originally after looking at the candle patterns form past was ont would do one of several things....run to the 1.40 area which it did and then pull which it did...now I was taken back by the fact it pulled below the 1.20 mark which was my downside target ....the run would have in my estimation  continue next week...to take it to a new high which I believe this stock can/should do....my target was either 1.45 producing a dt with the last prev spike...or 1.58 to follow the tops of the last 2 prev. spike to make a more sensible higher high....so now a wrench with the unexpected pull down that has left everyone scratching there heads......for the stock to finish the month with a lower low from the prev. spike would put me out on my candle estimation....it does so far with this unexpected pull seem to fit a pattern to now fall back whence it came....but I also see where this could / should see new highs next week....is there a large pennant possibly forming that may show us the 1.26 area which would inturn point to my new high...or do we just fall prey to the right shoulder of the daily H&S  pattern...anyhow at this point it is a hard call...but so far as trading I'm sticking to my guns next week that we shoot to a new high.....it just seems to be premature for this run to end and  also to end with a lower low.....anyhow hope ya catch my drift...not great at putting thoughts on paper...anyhow....I believe after the finality of this run...that next month will see ont consolidate somwhere from the low to the 1.20 area....and in months following there will be some exciting runs much higher with ultimately a 5 target......ck

[laker2000]

sorry meant 1.10 was my downside target..not 1.20

[laker2000]

I was also pointing to the fact that the current ont run whereever the high proves to be would have a large retracement ...typical of ont style.....that is why I believe next monnth will see the cons. between the low and 1.20...offering some more buys and sells...so we'll see....nice st calls by the way on this bb

[Se7en]

Article on ONT and interview with CEO Joll.


http://news.com.com/2100-1025_3-6149589.html?part=rss&tag=2547-1_3-0-5&subj=news


Putting a squeeze on Net video
On2 Technologies and others see a growing opportunity in the YouTube era for tech that handles video compression.
By Greg Sandoval
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
Published: January 11, 2007, 1:40 PM PST


Count On2 Technologies as one of video sharing's biggest fans.

Not so much for the lip-syncing teenagers or kooky animal tricks that appear on sites such as YouTube and eBaumsworld, but because the craze over posting video clips to the Internet is partly responsible for spurring media companies to find faster means of transmitting video over the Web.

On2 provides software that enables large video files to be sped through broadband pipes faster than in the past while preserving greater image quality, the company says.

At the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas this week, New York-based On2 demonstrated its TrueMotion VP6 and VP7 codecs, which can compress high-definition video down to 2 megabytes per second, according to CEO Bill Joll. On2 is vying to create high-definition codecs that will operate at the lowest bandwidths.

Codecs are mathematical formulas that enable massive digital-video files to be compressed and decompressed with minimal damage to quality.

Such massive files are difficult to transfer via broadband networks and can result in long download times. This is partly responsible for the public's failure to embrace Internet downloads of films and TV shows. Depending on connection speeds, a two-hour movie can take three times as long to fully download and the image quality is often inferior to a DVD.

"The issue the Internet faces," Joll said, "is if you have a broadband connection and can't get your hands on the file in a reasonable time, you're going to be frustrated."
Readying for high definition

The 13-year-old company is trying to position itself to one day help distribute high-definition content over the Web.

Online video has come a long way since the late 1990s, when watching streams meant grainy, jerky images that often stalled. Not much fun. While the user experience is smoother now, the pictures flickering over the Net still aren't as clear or vivid as watching TV, and certainly not anyway near high definition.

Plenty of media companies are waiting to stick cash into the pockets of those who can help speed up the process of delivering high quality video.

The number of competitors in online video has exploded in the past year. YouTube, Metacafe, Google Video are just a few of the more than 200 video-sharing sites. Skype and social-networking site Paltalk are in the video communication area; dozens of others, including Apple, are trying to marry the PC to the TV or deliver video to mobile devices.

The market's growth potential has helped lift On2's share price in recent months. Last summer the company's stock fell to a 52-week low of 55 cents but closed trading Thursday at $1.18.

On2 licenses its technology to such companies as China Mobile, Skype, Brightcove, XM Satellite Radio, and Adobe, which integrates VP6 into the company's Flash 8 and 9 players.

In the company's quarterly report filed last August, On2 said that it believed its compression software was more efficient than competitors' when customers streamed content over slower connections. On2 also stated that the technology offered higher resolution when passing over broadband connections.

"As connection speeds increase, however, the advantage that our highly efficient software has over competing technology may decrease," the company cautioned in its report.

On2 faces other threats, including one from Microsoft and DivX and the rise of H.264, a standards-based codec and successor to MPEG4 format. To demonstrate the company's own compression software, DivX has plans to launch a video-sharing site called Stage6.divx.com, according to a company representative. The site, which is in a testing mode, definitely offers a high quality image, but at least at this point will require a software download.


  The heavyweight in the division is Microsoft and the company's Windows Media Video, according to Josh Martin, an analyst with the Yankee Group. Microsoft has cut deals that make it tougher for companies that use Microsoft's digital rights management technology to use competing video-compression software, according to On2. Microsoft did not return calls for comment.

"Microsoft's commitment to and presence in the media delivery industry has increased," On2 wrote in the quarterly report. "Microsoft distributes its competing streaming encoder, media server, player, tools and digital rights management (DRM) products by bundling them with its Windows operating systems and servers at no additional cost."

Still, the market for Internet video appears to be in its infancy. Joll points out that YouTube is working with Flash 7 and should the company ever upgrade to Flash 8 or 9, it would mean a boon for On2.

"I can't comment on YouTube," Joll said. "We're in dialogue with a lot of companies."

[laker2000]

good article...I've done some dd on teck for 2007....bottomline it comes down to video...all types..mobile, internet etc...and gamming....and broband, iptv......started following a few in the last couple days...three so far look interesting...mcj...hlit...and a real risk play...ubs on the canadian venture....the last one is interesting in the fact that it owns 52 percent of a co. called look.....which has a mobile hdtv,iptv etc...business....but it also holds what is called a spectrum licsence which is worth a fortune...the ubs owners slowy engaged in buying shares and virtually stole the majority ownership of this co. from Craig Broadcasting...anyhow after somelengthy battle ubs owns 51 percent and moved managment into place...the story now gets interesting because a few weeks back they put look up for auction....both co's spiked from the .10 are to about .80 can. and with little news have drifter lower to the .65 area....the chart has a reverse h&s patter now forming the right shoulder....it has beem found out that there maybe several learge entities looking over the business...ie rogers, bce........now again the interest obv. lies with the vide, mobility aspect...but the big golden egg is the spectrum liscense....the last ones went for auction in canada had multiple bidders with many that never got a chance...and went for...are you ready...hundreds of millions of dollars....each co has approx 9- some mill.os....they also have up for grabs a 460 mill tax writeoff....when you do the math...that .65 looks pretty cheap....now the only risk is is they actually sell the bus. or chicken out....but the upside is large....anyhow.....another micro that has broband is eag....had a small unconvincing breakout today....lvlt is another broband that has started to move....they own the space and there isn't enough to go around....well had nothing to do for a few minuttes so I thought I'd throw another post....kinda getting excited about what my dd has dug up...

[laker2000]

I'll use the spell check next time...I have a bandage on my hand and I see it def. afects my ability to hit the right keys...sorry/lol

[laker2000]

crap..that was mcz not mcj...it's late what can i say...

[Melf Elf]

I'll use the spell check next time...I have a bandage on my hand and I see it def. afects my ability to hit the right keys...sorry/lol

laker,

Welcome to 3SOF!

You did fine, and I enjoyed reading your posts.  Applause.  Sorry that you hurt your hand.

Interesting that you mentioned HLIT because, yesterday, it did exactly what we've been discussing about what looks to be a H&S Top in the Hourly Chart  in ONT, which I'll post next.

After a monster run to the upside, HLIT has been forming a H&S Top.  More often than not, those are bearish, but if a stock can take out the Right Shoulder, then move to a new high above the Head, they can turn out quite bullish.

Yesterday, HLIT gapped up within three cents of the Right Shoulder, then went on to score an 11% gain on the day.  I didn't find any news, but it could have rallied simply on technical buying on the takeout of 7.51.

[Melf Elf]

Given the number of bearish factors that we examined prior to yesterday's open, yesterday's break of 1.10 support and subsequent recovery to a close back inside the channel sure smacks of a Bear Trap (the break of 1.10 got players thinking it was bearish, but the day ended bullish).

Now we have to ask ourselves if that close was a BULL Trap!   

When a stock breaks as much support as ONT has, then rapidly recovers throught 1.10 resistance...1.16 resistance...and closes the day out ju-ust inside the channel, that looks like a "jam job" that might not be sustainable. 

XING has attempted a "jam job" TWICE, in both the daily chart and in the hourly chart, trying to get back inside broken Descending Triangles in both charts.  Neither attempt has been successful, so far.

It's kind of like a player dribbling the ball past the opponents into the basket, against 1 last defender.  He gets as far as leaping up to the basket, but gets "stuffed" right at the rim.

"We'll let you dribble past 1.10 resistance...1.16 resistance...and, even let you into the net (the bottom of the channel, which is at 1.17707 at the open this morning), but don't think that you scored anything, closing at 1.18 yesterday!"

That sort of thing is the Bull Trap scenario (having us think that the 1.18 close inside the channel was bullish) if ONT can't follow-through to the upside from here.

The next order of business is for ONT to take out 1.20, but we've got horizontal resistance right above it, at 1.22.

The highs of the TWO Left Shoulders are 1.26 and 1.27, so we've got some resistance above here, no doubt.

The daily MACD crossed below its signal line yesterday, by just a hair:

MACD - 0.09045
Signal Line - 0.09145

ONT needs to get moving to the upside immediately, to give the MACD a bang higher off its signal line.  Otherwise, MACD continues down through the signal line, which often brings in technical selling.

If I had my druthers, I would have ONT sell off this morning to 1.10,
re-establish that neckline data point as support, like HLIT did on Tuesday when it sold off to 7.04, then go up and knock out 1.20 and 1.22, then 1.26 and 1.27 on up, like HLIT did.

I wouldn't expect all of that today, but it would be nice to see at least a takeout of 1.20.

[bjc]

laker- really enjoy your posts, and can't wait for more.

One request, though, is that you put some kind of paragraph break in your posts.  You have all this great information but I have a hard time keeping my spot in there...

I wish i had the savvy to pick up these trends at the beginning...ie, when the YouTube buyout talk began, GOOG bought, etc.  It'd pay off beautifully.  I did a fucking (excuse my french) report on Verizon in one of my business classes right around the time they were considering opening some kind of deal with YouTube for the service with their phones.  Foresight is everything.

Good luck boys and girls..

And also, Melf...I apprectiate the knowledge you bring to the board so much!  I'd say more good things, but you get the point.