The Major Market Indices now at all time highs

[metro]

Often when a stock candle trades above the top Bollinger band I get cautious as it can indicate overbought conditions. This has now happened to the NYSE so seems a pullback soon is in the cards.

This has been a very strong market and there was some pullback in December but on low volume and now the stronger volume is back as some try to play catch-up. You may note that it is rare if you have at all heard the media talk about the all time highs. Every single day on CNBC there is someone who talks about how the market had done almost nothing in years...Duh! (they should say the Dow 30 have done little) The main markets have been on fire for 3 years and are at all time highs.

Maybe while the rest of us have been making money - those who only watch CNBC are still sitting out. So if the DOW breaks above 11,000 for a bit then maybe all those will come into the market and we can out in a decent top.

Earnings are starting soon so they are likely to be very good and may provide the fuel to put in a final push to make the 4-year cycle high. Often during earnings season there is much volatility so maybe at the start we will see a sell off. Near possible tops and near over bought conditions and during earnings time day trading can be a safer approach and I never hold a stock through it reporting date.

The S&P 500 equal weight is a fraction away from an all time high also yet the media uses the phony weighted version to scam the public.

We are do for a bigger correction sometime in the next couple of months but on all of these charts - even though they are above or near the top B bands - you can see that RSI and Stochastics are not yet in overbought territory. CCI does show over bought conditions but it is a quicker indicator that can whipsaw a bit.




NYSE


S&P400


VLE


S&P


When a bigger and longer correction does come there are still many commodities that should stay booming. Sugar is on that has been on fire for sure from  about $8 in May to almost $15 now. That means about 15 cents a pound and some think it may go above 40 cents in the years ahead. There is always something going up...

[usedcasting]

Thanks Metro, always appreciate your input. (appl)

uc.

[shawFund]

The major indexes are at their year highs. But the US stock market as a whole did not bring us much return in last 4 years.

[metro]

Saying the market has not done much has little meaning. Think of YHOO - it has gone from $4 in 2002 to $43 now and by all accounts has been a killer stock. However someone could say it is an awful stock down to $43 from $125.

If you buy something then put your head in the sand then eventually you can say that about markets or stocks at some point but in fact the last 3 years have seen the US broad markets double. They are now at all time highs - only some segments are at 4-year highs


Value Line broad based 1900 stocks



All the stocks in the NYSE



(though if you look at the full 14-year bull market you will see the decent gains. There was a correction to the 50% retrace but that is very normal in a bull market to have such corrections - in fact even a correction to 62% would have been ok)  This year we shouldl ecpect another correction also as it is due to make its 4-year high this winter.



The  largest 500 stocks in the S&P - older data not at stockcharts



Those same 500 stocks though do show in this index





Being at all time highs and doubling over the last 3 is not bad. Not as hot as Japan or Russia or India in the last one year but pretty hot.

[metro]

I trade the DOW futures and though I use a 5-min chart for it I also like to watch the daily. A good buy point can come when the candle is below the lower B band and RSI and or stochastics below 20-30 then sell or short above the top band and RSI-Stoc above 70-80

The buy was about 6 days ago and sell today - This does not mean a big drop is in order but only that the meat of the trade is in the bank and the risk/reward has increased enough to exit that trade. I often short at the time I sell but did not today only as it is late in the cay and do not like to start a new trade when tires.  -- (too bad as the futures just dropped 50 points since I made this picture)

Just pointing this out for any interested in trading the markets