AMKR - Sector: Technology --- Industry: Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits

[David Randolph]

Nice pick David! I got in today at 9.33 up already over 3% .

Well, it closed at $9.34 (the trading plan said

buy ... below $9.27

), a bit off the highs. I'm not expecting this stock to go up everyday, but I do expect it to double in 6 months or so. There were no news or any other fundamental information out yesterday, I'll continue holding AMKR whatever happens.

[David Randolph]

More volume and more upside action for AMKR. Every intraday dip is met with more and more demand. When the market tells you're right, don't rush to take profits, let the stock reward you for being right.

[David Randolph]

I've listened to the 3Q conference call and all big institutional investors, like Bank of America, Merril Lynch, Deutsch Bank, Goldman Sachs and others were there, asking many questions.

One of them was:

«Your company is valued at such a deep discount when compared to your industry peers, why do you think is that?»

The answer from the CEO was: «I think we've just lost credibility. Now we need to gain back our credibility by getting results, not by promising them».

I like this talk. And I think that, after 4 consecutive quarters that were profitable and with revenue growing, they are showing those results. And the market is responding.

AMKR would need to be a $36 stock to have the same revenue multiple as its industry average. It would need to be a $27 stock to have the Semiconductor - Industry Circuits average earnings multiple.

So, if this "credibility recovery" continues, and from what I listened on the CC, it will, AMKR will be a, say $30 stock.

There will be corrections along the way, but there's no doubt that I want to continue holding AMKR.

[la-onda]

what I am wondering is why AMKRs stock price is so much higher than IMOS 

strange IMO

please check the attached comparison file
cheers
O.

[winner919]

is the action of Friday a technical sell signal for short term? may be we can buy at $8 next 1-2 weeks?

[ScottishTrader]

While AMKR has been running well lately, and continues to look strong, I am thinking that we may see a reversal and pull-back from this level.  AMKR has been hitting against key resistance at 9.70, and the 30 minute shows an ascending triangle forming that would suggest a break to the upside.  However, the MACD histo looks to be topping right now, RSI is heavily overbought, and the CCI is pulling back towards 100.  If you look at the last few times the CCI broke back down below 100 after being significantly above (green vertical lines) it preceded as substantial drop.  If it does pull back, we could see some support around 9.10-9.20, but it could also pull all the way back to the low $8 range.  I like David's longer term analysis and outlook on AMKR, but we got into this stock at relatively high levels, after it has made almost a double from lows at the end of september, which makes me concerned about letting a small profit turn into a loss here.

Yesterday's candle, and the 30-minute chart both lead me to believe tht 9.43 is key short term support.  If this gets broken, it will more than likely initialte a significant pull-back.  So, my updated trading plan on AMKR is to raise my stop to 9.40, in order to protect my position and make sure I come out with at least some gain from this.  If it does pullback, I would most certainly be a buyer at the 8.20-8.50 range.

[David Randolph]

I agree with you ScottishTrader, the short term action on AMKR looks a bit shaky. The candlestick left on Friday showed some indecision, and indecision many times leads to a reversal in short term trend.

But, thinking this way, you'll never be able to catch a meaningful move out a stock, say a 50% profit. Because, there are no 50% moves on any stock without some kind of short term weakness in between (at least not on $1B plus market cap stocks).

Remember AAPL, you were right when you bought at $40, but then you cut your profits too early because of thinking too much on the short term. Did you make more money by letting go of AAPL and start trading for short term profits?

I think AMKR is going to $30 (long term) and I'm not willing to lose my position just because of possible short term weakness - I know I can't beat the market making many short term trades on stocks, over the long run. I may beat it occasionally when I'm very precise, but unfortunately those strings don't last long.

Good luck Scottish Trader, but remember your lessons, it's more important to trade right than to make money on any particular trade !

[David Randolph]

AMKR just doesn't stop rising, to take a breather, because it is too much undervalued. Anything less than $15 is an insult after the fundamental turnaround this company had. That candlestick on Friday left some people a bit shaky on the short term (myself included), but I know you can't trust the candlesticks if you want to grab a medium term trend. Candlesticks are very short term oriented and many times they're wrong.

There's nothing else to do on AMKR than to sit tight and let the profits run.

[David Randolph]

I'm sorry La-onda, I can't open that PDF file, something's wrong with my Acrobat Reader. But from what you're saying I'll probably take a deep look at IMOS.

is the action of Friday a technical sell signal for short term? may be we can buy at $8 next 1-2 weeks?

At $8? I don't think so. My advice is for you to buy the stock and forget about short term activity. This may be your "triple of the year stock" 

The semiconductor sector was down 1.1% today, and AMKR was down 0.7% in sympathy. Again, the candlestick suggests there can be some red day on the chart, but I can't bet on that, since the trend is my ally in the stock market. And the trend says: «AMKR goes north».

[ScottishTrader]

Well David, you most certainly were right.  I raised my stop again today to 9.65, as AMKR broke down through first trendline support (light blue).  I figured I had 2 levels of horizontal support at 9.73 and 9.69 between me and my stop, but wanted to protect my profits.  And whaddya know, AMKR broke through all of those, hitting my stop and making a LOD of 9.65, again!!!  (sorry this keeps happening to me).  In fact, because I was looking at it in such a short term perspective (5-15min intraday charts)  I didn't even see that it made a perfect tag of two longer term ascending support lines (both dark blue).

But its ok, I'm not bitter (mainly because we made LOADS on CHINA today, oh and INSM too).  In fact it is clear case in point about what I need to rectify in my trading style and philosophy.  Otherwise, embrace it and go for those regluar 5% gains in stocks, but that is also a fairly high stress game with a lot of trading.  I think I need to learn the art of making my plans and then not looking at the action intra-day for a bit and getting on with all the other stuff i gotta do.  Just let things evolve.

I got a gain of 3.7% on AMKR this time, which I really don't mind, and I will be waiting for re-entry, either on a pullback if it fails again around $10, which I still think is possible, or maybe as soon as tomorrow, if it looks like these patterns are going to resolve themselves with a significant upside breakout above $10.  Today's candle looks a lot like fridays, and look what happened on Monday after that!  If AMKR breaks $10 this week, I am going to promise myself that I will sit on it and let things develop, because if it does break $10, I think you could well be right on this one. 

[David Randolph]

It looks like AMKR is consolidating the recent gains without any meaningful move down. Volume is down and the price is almost steady. Usually a violent move follows this kind of narrow activity.

Since the trend is up I expect this move to be up, although an inexperienced trader could think it should be down when looking at the chart. Of course, even inexperienced traders are sometimes right on the market

I'm thinking, these updates are getting too short term oriented, because, after all, I'm here to comment on 1 day's trading action. But is there anything to comment, really?

I should do these updates differently, I'll try to remember this tomorrow. For now I'll just say I'll continue holding AMKR.

[ScottishTrader]

couldn't resist - back in @ 9.89 today - AMKR is just screaming to break $10 and I will be very upset if it doesn't 

[David Randolph]

Above $10 now after another white marubozu with 1.9 million shares changing hands. The SOX went down 0.61% on Friday, yet AMKR was up 4.45%.

This is called relative strength.

AMKR is so easy from a fundamental standpoint ... EPS for full year 2006 is estimated at $0.95 and for 2007 estimates are for $0.98. But, the stock is trading at $10.33, so the earnings multiple is absurd (since the industry's earnings multiple is 31).

The stock is catching up with the fundamentals, but of course, it doesn't go up in a straight line, from one point to another. Fundamentally, AMKR is worth $30.

[ScottishTrader]

Excellent breakout for AMKR  above key $10 resistance    As I mentioned before, I was somewhat foolish to get stopped out of this one, but corrected this and got back in. 

Was just having a look at the long term weekly (semi-log) charts and it looks like next key resistance in this move should come in at 10.80, so keep an eye on the action when we get to that level.  Beyond that there should be significant resistance at $13 and $16-16.30.  My long term target for this move would be the top of the channel, which currently comes in around $18, but more than likely would be substantially higher if we actually touch this trendline.  I also like the strong uptick in the Acc/Dist (bottom).

Volume was low this week relative to the previous 2, as AMKR churned its way through the $9 level (and we only had 3.5 trading days).  I would expect volume to pick up again next week, as this comes up on hot $10+ trading radars, and with the possibility of further institutional exposure.  I am now planning to let this run for a bit and see how it goes.  I'm not going to yet, but I think it shold soon be safe to raise stops to close to $10 for this trade.

ST

[setravis]

Scottie, Thanks for the update !
Applaud.....