AMKR - Sector: Technology --- Industry: Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits

[trexkerry]

David, applying an exit analysis is a fantastic idea.  It's said that a professional trader thinks as much about his exit strategy as his entry.  I love the direction 3SOF is taking.  Keep it up and don't forget us if you ever start your own fund!

[David Randolph]

David,

So glad you came back to the site and are devoting sooooooooo much time and effort. With the recent gains I will continue to be a pioneer member.

basanlas

Thanks for your support basanlas

I'll reiterate that sentiment...Your work is top-notch! Putting a sell-point in your analysis would be a great addition.. I always find it difficult knowing when to pull the trigger.

Thanks Dory99, yes, I feel this is a great development to the strategy, instead of buying stocks looking for an above average long term return, the strategy shifted to a fundamentally based method of finding inefficiencies in the market place that ultimately lead to profits.

David, applying an exit analysis is a fantastic idea.  It's said that a professional trader thinks as much about his exit strategy as his entry.  I love the direction 3SOF is taking.  Keep it up and don't forget us if you ever start your own fund!

Lol, that hedge fund is still at least four years away, but I'll let you know.

Warren Buffet would disagree with that idea for an exit strategy, as for him, the ideal stock holding should never be sold.

He looks to buy good companies that increase in value year after year, and that value increase is what he gets as a return on investment. I'm looking to buy stocks that are inefficiently priced, given a change in fundamentals, and then sell them when that inefficiency window closes.

My strategy is only possible because of the relatively small size of the Main Portfolio, when compared to a mutual fund size.

Let's run the model for AMKR again:



Wow, with Dory99's help on another thread, I was able to make the calculus for the optimal selling price automatically, I just needed to insert the following formula:

final estimated share price/(1.16^3) = optimal selling price

Thanks a lot

We can see from the model that AMKR isn't a spectacular pick, but still delivering a share price CAGR of 35.4%, way above the 16% minimum threshold.

[JKN]

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/amkor-repays-300-million-second/story.aspx?guid=%7B0B5B996D%2DAB70%2D4E41%2DBC02%2D2A21B0294D57%7D&sid=&symb=AMKR

CHANDLER, Ariz., Apr 09, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR : amkor technology inc com
News , chart , profile , more
Last: 14.08+0.33+2.40%

7:17am 04/09/2007

AMKR today announced that its subsidiary Amkor Technology Korea, Inc. received approval from the Bank of Korea with respect to its $300 million 7-year secured credit facility with Woori Bank. The proceeds of this loan have been drawn and were used to refinance and refund the outstanding principal on Amkor's $300 million second lien term loan due October 2010. Together with an additional $12.1 million in prepayment fees and accrued interest funded by Amkor, this transaction fully discharges all of Amkor's obligations under the second lien term loan as well as the subsidiary guarantees and collateral securing the second lien term loan.
As previously announced, in connection with the early repayment of the second lien term loan, Amkor expects to record a charge of approximately $16 million in the second quarter of 2007, including $9 million in prepayment fees and $7 million to write off unamortized deferred debt issuance costs.

[David Randolph]

Thanks for posting the news JKN, those figures were already known. AMKR had a little pullback today, fundamentally nothing changed, I'll keep holding the stock, since the optimal selling price for AMKR, given by my new valuation model, is $22.39.

[David Randolph]

AMKR opened down because of the news JKN posted but naturally it came back up as the news was already known and the market only cares about the future, not the immediate charges and penalties for paying back that $300 M loan with another loan on more favorable terms. This will increase long term profitability and that's what investors look for when they buy a stock.

According to my estimates the optimal selling price for AMKR is $22.39, I'll keep holding the stock as it closed at $13.91.

[David Randolph]

Nothing new on AMKR today, I'll keep holding the stock.

[David Randolph]

AMKR has been making stellar progresses recently, in terms of negotiating its debt on better terms, the substantial reduction in historical dilution rates, the revenue growth and the net profit margin expansion.

This fundamental improvement has been so significant that I've decided to change the 4th variable of the valuation model, the EPS multiple estimate, from 20 to the Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits industry average of 25.45.

Results are as follows:



The estimated share price CAGR is 44.3% and the optimal selling price today is $26.84 (that would be the price where, with the current fundamental trends, AMKR would be expected to start returning less than 16% a year).

I'll keep holding AMKR.

[David Randolph]

People keep on taking profits and suspecting AMKR's ability to rise, and the stock keeps coming back by the end of the session, as the trend, that good old friend of ours, is bullish and it will remain bullish, because the stock is fundamentally attractive:



According to my estimates, the expected share price compound annual growth rate for the next 3 years will be 44.6% and given this the optimal selling price today is $26.84.

I'll keep on holding AMKR.

[setravis]

Press Release Source: Amkor Technology, Inc.


Amkor Recognized for Excellence by Texas Instruments
Monday April 16, 7:30 am ET


CHANDLER, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Amkor Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMKR - News) today announced that Amkor's Taiwan-based operations has been presented with a Texas Instruments (TI) 2006 Supplier Excellence Award for its role in supporting the manufacture of TI DLP® products.


The award, given annually, honors firms whose dedication and commitment in supplying products and services meet TI's high standards for excellence. Recipients are an elite group of suppliers chosen for their exemplary performance in the areas of Cost, Environmental Responsibility, Technology, Responsiveness, Assurance of Supply, and Quality.

The presentation to Amkor personnel will be made by a management team from TI's DLP group in the near future.

"Amkor has been instrumental in supporting our manufacturing needs for TI DLP products," said John Van Scoter, Senior Vice President Texas Instruments and general manager DLP Products. "They have provided additional flexibility in our supply chain to support our customer needs and have grown with TI as demand for DLP products continues to strengthen. This award recognizes the collaborative relationship between Amkor and Texas Instruments that has developed over the last 5 years. We look forward to the continuing support that Amkor provides for DLP products."

"The TI Supplier Excellence award is a public recognition of the ongoing efforts that Amkor's T1 factory in Taiwan has made to provide the highest level of manufacturing expertise to support this very demanding technology," said Oleg Khaykin, Amkor's Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer. "We look forward to continued support of Texas Instruments and their exciting DLP line of products."

About Amkor

Amkor Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMKR - News) is a leading provider of advanced semiconductor assembly and test services. The company offers semiconductor companies and electronics OEMs a complete set of microelectronic design and manufacturing services. More information on Amkor is available from the company's SEC filings and on Amkor's web site: www.amkor.com.

DLP is a registered trademark of Texas Instruments

Contact:
Amkor Technology, Inc., Chandler
Jeffrey Luth
VP Corporate Communications
480-821-5000 ext. 5130
[email protected]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Amkor Technology, Inc.


52wk Range: 4.61 - 14.30
Volume: 2,554,928
Avg Vol (3m): 3,251,100

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
4.11%above 13-day MA
14.60%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 93 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $2,466.81 
P/E Ratio: 15.52 
PEG Ratio: 1.12 
Next Earnings: 05/01/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Neutral

[setravis]

"AMKR" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.                                             
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.                                          
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock.                       
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$       

[David Randolph]

AMKR is warming up to push to new highs above $14.3.

My valuation model says AMKR should only be sold at $27.51, given current and expected fundamental trends:



There was a positive news release yesterday:

• Amkor Recognized for Excellence by Texas Instruments
Business Wire (Mon 7:30am)

The news doesn't impact any of my four working variables.

I'll keep holding AMKR.

[wxmang]

Just bought some shares of AMKR on the 4.25% pullback.
Perfect buying opportunity guys!

Wxmang

[David Randolph]

Just bought some shares of AMKR on the 4.25% pullback.
Perfect buying opportunity guys!

Wxmang

I believe you did well buying AMKR on the dip Wxmang, as my valuation model says it is worth a good chunk more than the current price:



Technically the stock may meet the ascending 50 days SMA, but the trend is bullish.

I'll continue holding AMKR.

[superpippo]

Charges Filed Against Ex-Amkor Exec

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The executive who was responsible for prohibiting insider trading by Amkor Technology Inc. employees has been charged with repeatedly engaging in the practice himself.
The Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday accused Amkor's former general counsel, Kevin Heron, of trading in Amkor securities based on inside information about the company's business. Regulators said Heron made about $290,000 in profits, representing both money earned and losses avoided.

Heron was general counsel, chief insider trading compliance officer, and corporate secretary for Amkor. He was fired in September 2005 from the Chandler, Arizona-based technology company. Heron's attorney couldn't immediately be reached for comment.


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070418/sec_amkor.html?.v=1

[David Randolph]

Charges Filed Against Ex-Amkor Exec

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The executive who was responsible for prohibiting insider trading by Amkor Technology Inc. employees has been charged with repeatedly engaging in the practice himself.
The Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday accused Amkor's former general counsel, Kevin Heron, of trading in Amkor securities based on inside information about the company's business. Regulators said Heron made about $290,000 in profits, representing both money earned and losses avoided.

Heron was general counsel, chief insider trading compliance officer, and corporate secretary for Amkor. He was fired in September 2005 from the Chandler, Arizona-based technology company. Heron's attorney couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070418/sec_amkor.html?.v=1

Thanks for posting the news superpippo, AMKR always had poor corporate governance. But things seem different now. And look at the press release just out, there's huge growth in some of the company's products:

• Amkor PoPs Cork for Fast Growing Package on Package Solution
Business Wire (Wed 4:30pm)

AMKR has 45% of a market that is expected to double in 2007 and almost double again in 2008. I don't know the size of this POP cork market, let me investigate that ... I couldn't find the size of the market.

But this might be a clue for me to revise my revenue CAGR estimate to more than the current 15% (the number on the model is 1.15).

Anyway, even leaving it the way it is, AMKR is very attractive with an optimal selling price of $28.13, that is, 106% more than yesterday's closing price. I'll keep holding AMKR.