Ascending Triangles - Gotta love 'em!

[Melf Elf]

Hmm......You're right Melf.  I didn't see that triangle within a larger triangle. 

Thai,

I didn't see your larger Ascending Triangle.  That's what's so nice about sharing our work.

I'm liking the trade even more now if I get in.  It appears as though that it might breakout above the 3.59 target on to the breakout of the larger ascending triangle.  Now I gotta see what I should get rid of to get me some CNXT 

What I'd like to see is for CNXT to make the 3.59 target, putting in a second data point at the top of your Big Ascending Triangle, pull back some toward your ascending line, which has been validated with three hits, then breakout above 3.60.

That mgiht look more obvious to everyone that the stock has had an important breakout.  CNXT still could blast right through 3.60 with no pullback, and it would be just as valid.

I'd also like to see a pullback this week toward the top of the little Ascending Triangle (3.10-3.12).  A breakout re-test often is a real nice entry.

Which reminds me...in addition to looking for Ascending Triangles, we also ought to look for re-tests of Ascending Triangle breakouts.   The pattern construction work already is completed, thus the breakout, and a successful re-test can be real quick, then it's off to the races again to the pattern target.

I might put in an oder for CNXT at, say 3.15.  I always put it a little above the breakout, in case it doesn't go all the way back.  Stop would be below the ascending trendline at about 2.94 (I'll calculate it exactly if I take the trade).

A rally from 3.15 to 3.59 is a gain of 14%

A stop out at 2.93 (below the trendline) from a 3.15 entry risks a loss of 7%

That's a 1:2 risk/reward.  Not as good as I'd like, but not bad.

[calven]

CNXT has HEAVY resistance at 3.90 and even more at 4.40 - I would be careful....

Okay now that we have come up with plays - I think we should start the process of ranking them...maybe come up with a top 5 list. Here are a few that I think should be included in such a list.

Rank - Symbol - Breakout Price ("ideal entry")



1) VLG - 22.15
2) MDU - 37.20
3) OMNI - 5.10

[thai626]

Hmm......You're right Melf.  I didn't see that triangle within a larger triangle.

Thai,

I didn't see your larger Ascending Triangle. That's what's so nice about sharing our work.

I'm liking the trade even more now if I get in.  It appears as though that it might breakout above the 3.59 target on to the breakout of the larger ascending triangle.  Now I gotta see what I should get rid of to get me some CNXT 

What I'd like to see is for CNXT to make the 3.59 target, putting in a second data point at the top of your Big Ascending Triangle, pull back some toward your ascending line, which has been validated with three hits, then breakout above 3.60.

That mgiht look more obvious to everyone that the stock has had an important breakout. CNXT still could blast right through 3.60 with no pullback, and it would be just as valid.

I'd also like to see a pullback this week toward the top of the little Ascending Triangle (3.10-3.12). A breakout re-test often is a real nice entry.

Which reminds me...in addition to looking for Ascending Triangles, we also ought to look for re-tests of Ascending Triangle breakouts. The pattern construction work already is completed, thus the breakout, and a successful re-test can be real quick, then it's off to the races again to the pattern target.

I might put in an oder for CNXT at, say 3.15. I always put it a little above the breakout, in case it doesn't go all the way back. Stop would be below the ascending trendline at about 2.94 (I'll calculate it exactly if I take the trade).

A rally from 3.15 to 3.59 is a gain of 14%

A stop out at 2.93 (below the trendline) from a 3.15 entry risks a loss of 7%

That's a 1:2 risk/reward. Not as good as I'd like, but not bad.

Actually, I would like to see CNXT just blow by the 3.59 point because if it were to retrace back to the support line, then it'll be getting too close to the apex.  Since the support line did touch before the resistance point (although not part of the triangle), I think it's just as valid as if it retraced back to  he support line.  From visiting this site, I've learned from the best!!  I mean it!

CNXT has HEAVY resistance at 3.90 and even more at 4.40 - I would be careful....

Okay now that we have come up with plays - I think we should start the process of ranking them...maybe come up with a top 5 list. Here are a few that I think should be included in such a list.

Rank - Symbol - Breakout Price ("ideal entry")



1) VLG - 22.15
2) MDU - 37.20
3) OMNI - 5.10

Yo Cal,  I started another thread with the ony the best agreed ascending triangle plays.  Out of the three of your choices, I really only see one ascending triangle and that one is VLG.  HOWEVER, VLG is nearing the apex, and if it doesn't breakout tomorrow..............the ascending triangle pattern in my opinion is doo doo.     Good luck man, keep up the good work.



Now I'm off to dish you guys your second applaud that I promised.  Keep up the good work!

Thai

[Melf Elf]

CNXT has HEAVY resistance at 3.90 and even more at 4.40 - I would be careful....

cal,

Yes, that resistance prior to the big gap down in July, 2004 no doubt is a factor.  We're almost two years out from it, and CNXT had a nice Inverse H&S breakout and MADE the target, so that's a plus.  "The farther away you are from resistance, the less significant it becomes."  It's still reistance, though, and you make a good point.

1) VLG - 22.15
2) MDU - 37.20
3) OMNI - 5.10

I haven't looked at VLG and OMNI closely enough to comment.

I like MDU.  It's a Symmetrical Triangle.  The tops are only 0.9% apart, though, so I can't disagree with calling it an Ascending Triangle.  On a breakout, it should have the same effect, regardless of which one we call it.

Besides, if you and I disagree anymore this weekend, the 3SOF Board will send us for counseling.



On MDU:

1. I like the smaller Ascending Triangle within the larger pattern.

2. The target didn't make, but it's still IN PLAY.

3. All of the closes have been above the Ascending Triangle breakout, including the day that MDU
went down for a third near-tag of the ascending line.

4. The ascending trendline has been validated.

MDU's average daily volume is only 345,000, so it's too thin for me to play, but it looks like a good pick.  Applause.

Actually, I would like to see CNXT just blow by the 3.59

Thai,

Well, okay then, we'll have it blow right thru 3.59.   

[calven]

I consider MDU an ASC TRI only because I like to "consider" the tops even if they are within 2%...


What do we think of OMNI.... seems like this one it a "sketchy" ascending triangle - but a break above $5.00 CANNOT BE IGNORED! Thoughts on this one much appreciated.

Also of note: OMNI is using the 200 day moving average as upsloping support. I would not buy here but the first tick over $5.00 I have set to receive an email alert with 5.10 being my best entry...

Thanks!
cal 

[thai626]

Wow.....I complete missed the bigger picture on OMNI.    I didn't zoom out far enough.  In my opinion, that is also an Ascending Triangle and a pretty powerful one indeed.  I'll have to add that to my thread.  However, I think that it'll touch the 50dma one more time before breaking out.  Good find Cal!

[thai626]

Do you guys think this one deserves to be in the agreed ascending triangle thread??  I think it's as valid as can be. 

[calven]

TIVO ?

[ScottishTrader]

Melf Elf,

Having another look at PGN, I have to say that I think it is a fidhy data issue - on the 3 year chart from Stockcharts, I don't see ANY prints above $45, which Calven would probably agree with.  From your chharts on Metastock, it looks like you have different data for your price highs - I really don't know what's going on and haven't seen this before (and they say the chart never lies....).

Really not sure what is going on, but from the chart on stockcharts it does look like a long term ascending triangle.  From the charts you have posted from Metastock it dosn't.  What gives eh???

[Melf Elf]

I haven't looked at VLG and OMNI closely enough to comment.

cal,

I checked those two this morning and remembered why I didn't look at them very closely.  They're very thinly traded, so I ruled them out right away.  OMNI traded about 80,000 shares on Friday; VLG traded a paltry 3,400. 

For future reference, I probably won't comment on these low volume stocks (or penny stocks) ONLY because I've got so many charts to look at, and those aren't anything that I ever would play.

That said, VLG looks outstanding. 
OMNI looks very good.

Applause.

Melf Elf,

Really not sure what is going on, but from the chart on stockcharts it does look like a long term ascending triangle. From the charts you have posted from Metastock it dosn't. What gives eh???

I don't know, Scotsman.   

I've download my data from Reuters for many years and haven't noticed a problem, other than once in a great while, I see a candlestick that obviously has a "bad tick."  Like, a stock that is trading around $20, and the low of the day is shown as $5.  Obvious "bad tick."  That doesn't happen very often, though.

[Melf Elf]

I've been long NTAP since January 24, when it pulled back to re-test its Inverse H&S breakout.  The neckline was 30.17.  NTAP printed 30.17 exactly.

For background on the chart and the  reaction to mid-February earnings, search the Stock Picking Board for my folder: "NTAP - Pullback to Inv. H&S Breakout." if you're interested.

In addition to the Inverse H&S pattern (38.27 is IN PLAY), NTAP now could be forming an Ascending Triangle.  Highs are very flat: 34.99...34.98...35.00.

[fous]

Couple of plays here:

DIET broke its ascending triangle today on heavy volume confirmation:




ISV forming sort of a ascending/symmetrical triangle. Im buying on the breakout if and when it does.


NTO, released great Q4 and year end results today though managed to oddly retrace. Though forming what appears to be an ascending triangle. Im buying on the breakout.



-fous

[Deadb440]

I'm curious with Ascending triangles......  When I play them I have a tendencey to ignore any spikes on the daily candles and draw the divergent lines across the tops and bottoms of the main body of the candles.....  Does anybody see this as wrong or does everyone pretty much concure to do the same?  Thx..... Dead

[Melf Elf]

I'm curious with Ascending triangles......  When I play them I have a tendencey to ignore any spikes on the daily candles and draw the divergent lines across the tops and bottoms of the main body of the candles.....  Does anybody see this as wrong or does everyone pretty much concure to do the same?  Thx..... Dead

Dead,

That's a great question.  Applause.

No, analysts do not concur.  Based on the charts that I see, I'd say that the majority of technicans draw it the way that you do.  I don't like to do it because I'm not confident about the reliability of a breakout/breakdown of a trendline drawn that way.

But, since I'm in the minority, maybe I ought to reconsider.   

I'd say that, regardless of which way you choose to draw the trendline, look at volume on any breakout or breakdown.  If you see good volume come in, you're more likely to be alright.

[wrangler]

Great thread you have going here. I've been trying to learn ascending triangles and just started reading this thread, looks like I've found a great place to help me learn. While reading I noticed IMNR is the first one posted. I have a position in IMNR and it looks like  it's being tested right now.