VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[la-onda]

La-onda is the commander and chief of VPHM, so I'm going to ask him just one more:

6) I have great faith on the common cold treatment Glaxo Smithkline bought from VPHM, from which VPHM may receive $65 M and royalties of revenues coming from the drug (the cost of sales of these revenues would be close to zero).

What do you have on this La-onda? (I promise, this is the last one, thanks )

I am sorry to say that there is no update available from my side ....
lol

nice rebound today

[David Randolph]

I am sorry to say that there is no update available from my side ....
lol

nice rebound today

Hehe, you've done more than enough La-onda, thanks

Reason #6 to buy VPHM was:

6) I have great faith on the common cold treatment Glaxo Smithkline bought from VPHM, from which VPHM may receive $65 M and royalties of revenues coming from the drug (the cost of sales of these revenues would be close to zero).

Here's what the latest 10-Q has on this issue:



I don't know how the share of revenues will be divided between VPHM and Shering Plough (the partner on Pleconaril, a common cold treatment, is Shering Plough, not Glaxo as I mistakenly wrote), but I'll investigate the issue on upcoming updates. Anyway, this business is not in VPHM's hands now.

As La-onda said, nice bounce on Friday, I'll keep holding VPHM.

[rickjust]

hi,
nice bounce friday,
today, this one dropped hard . i couldn't find any news. they were doing a  presentation today  maybe it didn't go well.

Press Release Source: ViroPharma Incorporated


ViroPharma to Present at the Acumen/BioFin Rodman & Renshaw 4th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
Wednesday May 9, 4:30 pm ET


EXTON, Pa., May 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) today announced that Michel de Rosen, president and chief executive officer of ViroPharma, will present at the Acumen/BioFin Rodman & Renshaw 4th Annual Global Healthcare Conference at 11:20 A.M. ET (5:20 P.M. local time) on Monday, May 14, 2007. The conference is being held at the Le Meridien Beach Plaza Hotel in Monte-Carlo, Monaco.

max

[la-onda]

additional information:
IMS Health Weekly Prescriptions:
Total Vancocin prescriptions for the week ended 5/4/07 total 4,925!! New prescriptions for the week ended 5/4/07 total 4,216!! Prior week totals are 4,735 and 4,106, respectively.

Institutional holdings up to 78.6%:
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?mode=&kind=&timeframe=&intraday=&charttype=&splits=&earnings=&movingaverage=&lowerstudy=&comparison=&index=&symbol=vphm&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&FormType=Institutional&mkttype=&pathname=&page=holdings&selected=VPHM

[David Randolph]

hi,
nice bounce friday,
today, this one dropped hard . i couldn't find any news. they were doing a  presentation today  maybe it didn't go well.

Press Release Source: ViroPharma Incorporated

ViroPharma to Present at the Acumen/BioFin Rodman & Renshaw 4th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
Wednesday May 9, 4:30 pm ET

EXTON, Pa., May 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) today announced that Michel de Rosen, president and chief executive officer of ViroPharma, will present at the Acumen/BioFin Rodman & Renshaw 4th Annual Global Healthcare Conference at 11:20 A.M. ET (5:20 P.M. local time) on Monday, May 14, 2007. The conference is being held at the Le Meridien Beach Plaza Hotel in Monte-Carlo, Monaco.

max

Hi rickjust, I heard the conference call and saw the slides, I think it went well:

http://www.wsw.com/webcast/rrshq11/vphm/

In fact over the next updates we'll study the slides of this conference, they're very informative.

additional information:
IMS Health Weekly Prescriptions:
Total Vancocin prescriptions for the week ended 5/4/07 total 4,925!! New prescriptions for the week ended 5/4/07 total 4,216!! Prior week totals are 4,735 and 4,106, respectively.

Institutional holdings up to 78.6%:
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?mode=&kind=&timeframe=&intraday=&charttype=&splits=&earnings=&movingaverage=&lowerstudy=&comparison=&index=&symbol=vphm&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&FormType=Institutional&mkttype=&pathname=&page=holdings&selected=VPHM

Hi la-onda, thanks for the information, applaud.

Yesterday VPHM came down to close the gap that was opened after the Q1 results presentation. My take is, since some people knew the Vancocin prescriptions in advance, Q1 revenue and earnings growth wasn't a positive surprise, so the stock came back down to the previous level. But this doesn't mean there wasn't a fundamental improvement, there was.

I expect VPHM to recover, perhaps after testing the 50 days SMA support. I'll keep holding VPHM.

[David Randolph]

Finally one stock that actually closed up on the day, VPHM. It bounced after closing that gap, as it should do ... but, what am I doing, focusing on short term technical information again? I should know better.

The thing is, focusing on long term information is a lot harder and it gives a lot more work. It is so much easier to let the market (I mean others) tell us what to do, isn't it? Easier doesn't mean it works, I don't think it does, not over a 30 year investment life span.

So let me put here the first three slides of the latest VPHM conference:







Lol, sorry, these were just introductory slides, tomorrow we'll have three more (hopefully with more relevancy )

I'll continue holding VPHM.

[David Randolph]

Three more slides today:



This is a nice combination for a biotechnology company.



Maribavir is the greatest hope for the near future, since it is in phase 3. The commercialization process is expected to start in 2009, but until then we'll have Vancocin revenues to support and grow the company's profitability.



The next few slides will explain what Maribavir is and its potential.

Technically VPHM touched the 50 days SMA and should rebound strongly now. I'll continue holding VPHM whatever happens.

[David Randolph]

VPHM issued two press releases yesterday, with no impact on the share price:

• ViroPharma (VPHM) President and Chief Executive Officer to Ring the NASDAQ Stock Market Opening Bell
PrimeNewswire (Thu 11:54am)

• ViroPharma to Present at The CitiGroup 2007 Healthcare Conference
PR Newswire (Thu 2:32pm)

Let's study the next three slides, all of them explaining Maribavir:







Technically VPHM continues to slide, and I'm already losing 8.55% on this trade. Biotechnology always gives me a lot of work and no money. I'll probably never buy another biotechnology stock, I dislike the sector.

But, in biotechnology, I like VPHM, because it makes sense from a financial standpoint, so I'll keep holding the stock.

[David Randolph]

I wasn't expecting VPHM to trend down over the short term, not after the Q1 results that were above expectations. It seems people continue to worry about Vancocin's generic competition, or else it has to do with the $250 M private placement.

Technically the stock is reaching short and medium term support is picking up, so I expect the stock to bounce from this area. Let' check the following three slides of the Rodman & Renshaw conference:







Biotechnology always needs to be a long term investment, so I'm prepared to hold VPHM for the long term and hopefully reap the reward. But this is the last biotechnology stock I'll ever buy, because the way to value them is complex and I don't have the necessary skills to do it. Of the hundreds of biotechnology companies outthere, I expect no more than 10% to survive and prosper. VPHM seems to be one of those.

I'll keep holding VPHM.

[Amarens]

It's picking up a little today 

[David Randolph]

VPHM bounced of the $14.72 support level, but volume wasn't convincing. Let's expect tomorrow's conference at Citigroup brings some more volume and upside action to VPHM, I, like everybody else, don't like to be losing.

(when I start talking about short term technical aspects of the stock you see that I don't have much time or new things to say on the fundamental front).

I'll keep on holding VPHM.

[David Randolph]

There wasn't much movement on VPHM yesterday, so we can relax and look at three more slides of its latest conference, I believe they help understanding the business behind the stock:







These three slides were about their Hepatitis C treatment, currently in phase 2.

Technically the stock is back above the 50 days SMA, not that has much significance. Fundamentally the stock is cheap, trading at 13.5 times earnings. I'll continue holding VPHM.

[yukiii]

Anyone see this maybe this is the reason stock has gone down....

Our annual stockholders' meeting will be held on Thursday, June 21, 2007 at 10:00 a.m., local time, at The Inn at Chester Springs, 815 North Pottstown Pike, Exton, Pennsylvania 19341 for the following purposes:

To amend our amended and restated certificate of incorporation to increase the number of shares of common stock that we are authorized to issue by 75,000,000 shares to an aggregate of 175,000,000 shares.

[David Randolph]

Anyone see this maybe this is the reason stock has gone down....

Our annual stockholders' meeting will be held on Thursday, June 21, 2007 at 10:00 a.m., local time, at The Inn at Chester Springs, 815 North Pottstown Pike, Exton, Pennsylvania 19341 for the following purposes:

To amend our amended and restated certificate of incorporation to increase the number of shares of common stock that we are authorized to issue by 75,000,000 shares to an aggregate of 175,000,000 shares.

Since the current # of shares outstanding is 69,792,522 shares, they had to increase the number of authorized shares to accommodate the possible conversion of the latest $250 M private placement. However, the company has a call to buy back those shares if they're converted, hence reducing potential dilution. I don't think that was the cause for the decline, it had to be done.

[la-onda]

Hi,
just fyi 

Cititgroup conference slides
I am holding my shares (entry @ 9.4 a few months ago)

cheers
O.