VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[David Randolph]

I guess VPHM is also out from the portfolio, this is a good short here.

Not yet. Only if it is set to close below $13.82. There are no good shorts in my view.

[DragonAMG]

I guess VPHM is also out from the portfolio, this is a good short here.

Not yet. Only if it is set to close below $13.82. There are no good shorts in my view.

How about JASO and TSL... they both look like good shorts, no?  How about CROX when it hits $100?

[David Randolph]

I guess VPHM is also out from the portfolio, this is a good short here.

Not yet. Only if it is set to close below $13.82. There are no good shorts in my view.

How about JASO and TSL... they both look like good shorts, no?  How about CROX when it hits $100?

No, no good shorts. If I apply my valuation model to any stock for the short side it will be extremely difficult to find one that is expected to return more than 16% a year for the next three years, and that is my minimum threshold to consider an investment interesting.

If you analyze all short funds, they're never able to beat the market in a consistent way.

If you buy a stock that goes from $5 to $10 you earn 100%. If you sell the stock short at $10 and cover at $5, you earn 50%. Your expected rate of return is lower and your risk is higher. There's no point in looking for short candidates.

[David Randolph]

No hope for VPHM, closing below the $13.82 key support level. My hands were weak from the start on this stock . I've taken my loss at $13.63. One comforting thought: It was the last time I've lost money in a biotechnology stock.

[la-onda]

sold also today, but will be back soon:
Idenix Sees Early Surge Fade
By Robert Steyer
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
6/12/2007 3:48 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/newsanalysis/pharmaceuticals/10362130.html

The air went out of Idenix (IDIX) quickly on Tuesday as two analysts downgraded the stock.

Before the market opened, Idenix issued a press release touting the results of a midstage clinical trial for its hepatitis C drug valopicitabine. In premarket trading, the stock climbed as high as $9.25, or about 28% above Monday's closing price.

However, once analysts digested the data and talked to Idenix executives, the mood soured. By late afternoon, the stock was off 46 cents, or 6.4%, to $6.77. Trading volume was more than 30 times greater than the daily average for the past three months.

Both Bear Stearns and Susquehanna Financial lowered their ratings after Idenix management revealed the drug would need another Phase 2, or midstage, clinical trial before moving to the larger Phase 3 setting.

"We expect timelines to be pushed back by at least one year and a Phase 3 trial [will] begin in the second half of 2008," says Jason Kolbert, of Susquehanna, in a report to clients. He doesn't own shares. His firm says it seeks to do business with companies mentioned in research reports.

Kolbert cut his rating to neutral from positive, saying that he had been expecting the results to be enough to advance to Phase 3. Idenix will be at a disadvantage to competitors, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) and ViroPharma (VPHM) , which are expected to begin Phase 3 testing later this year on their hepatitis C compounds, Kolbert says.

Mark Schoenebaum of Bear Stearns lowered his rating to peer perform from outperform, telling clients that his prediction of a 2009 launch will be delayed by at least six months. He's concerned about the drug's gastrointestinal side effects and wants to see better efficacy data. Schoenebaum doesn't own shares, but his firm has had a non-investment banking relationship.

Idenix is working on the drug with Novartis (NVS) , which owns 56% of the Cambridge, Mass.-based company.

Some investors initially jumped at the news that valopicitabine met its Phase 2 research goals. The clinical trial compared a combination of the Idenix compound plus two marketed hepatitis C drugs -- pegylated interferon and ribavirin -- to the two other drugs.

Pegylated interferon and ribavirin are the standards of care for hepatitis C, a blood-borne disease linked primarily to needle-sharing among drug users. The disease also can be caused by unprotected sex, transfusions of infected blood or transplants of infected organs. Hepatitis C can lead to liver cancer or necessitate a liver transplant.

Idenix said it met the primary goal of showing no interactions between its drug and ribavirin among patients with a certain type of hepatitis C. Among 39 patients receiving a triple-drug combination, 72.2% achieved a significant reduction in the virus compared with 61.5% among 39 patients receiving the dual-drug standard of care. However, three patients quit the Idenix-group test due to side effects.

The drop-outs prompted the Bear Stearns and Susquehanna Financial analysts to remark that the comparison between the Idenix group and the standard-of-care groups is weaker than the official numbers in the clinical trial.

[DragonAMG]

la-onda you're dropping out too?  I don't feel like selling another stock for a loss... I will be holding this one    wish me luck.... looks like I will need it.

[la-onda]

I sold with profit ( bought in @ 9.4$) 

[BigSully1]

No panic sell on it, at least not yet. Hmmm. Might even be a good buy now.

[BigSully1]

No panic sell on it, at least not yet. Hmmm. Might even be a good buy now.

I bought a little @ 13.99, but will put a fairly close stop on it.

[BigSully1]

Is VPHM being manipulated? Whats with the inverted bid/ask for past 10 minutes?

[la-onda]

10 min chart 

[BigSully1]

10 min chart 

Thanks la-onda. There was about a 10 min period where the bid/ask was inverted with as much as a .07 spread, even though it couldn't be bought at the ask, at least not by me.

[la-onda]

ViroPharma Is on Its Way
By Brian Lawler June 13, 2007

Yesterday drugmaker ViroPharma (Nasdaq: VPHM) announced that it had completed enrolling the initial treatment groups in a phase 2 study of its hepatitis C
treatment HCV-796.

Finishing enrollment means that the clock can start
ticking on when these patients will complete
treatment. ViroPharma and partner Wyeth (NYSE: WYE)
expect to release interim data after four weeks of
drug treatment in the third quarter of this year; the
twelve-week data is expected to come out in the fourth
quarter.

Keep in mind that the data that ViroPharma will
announce later in the year is only preliminary. The
study is slated to run a total of 72 weeks. More arms
of the study, using different dosages of the drug,
will open up after the interim results are released.

The nice thing about hepatitis C therapies is that
early results of a drug's efficacy are generally
highly predictive of the long-term outcomes for
patients on these compounds. Therefore investors
should have a much better idea of the potential for
HCV-796 by the time 2008 rolls around.

In late 2006, HCV-796 produced very positive phase 1b study results when compared against the current standard of care for hepatitis C. After fourteen days of treatment, when HCV-796 was added to pegylated interferon, patients had significantly lower amounts of hepatitis C in their bodies compared to those who didn't get HCV-796.

With multiple new treatment options for hepatitis C from different biopharmas in mid- and late-stage clinical studies, the treatment landscape for this disease is going to change dramatically over the next several years. If the HCV-796 phase 2 study results are as strong as the phase 1 results were, the drug stands a good chance of being one of these novel
treatment options.

[la-onda]

just fyi:

[bigike1313]

Time to be adding not selling.  Risk-benefit is as good as it gets here, similar to $7 entry point last year.