VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[la-onda]

 VPHM: Short Interest UP 3.4% to 14.0M at the End of Mar 2008
Wednesday, April 09, 2008 16:22ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 3.4% to 13,994,939 shares as reported at month-end March, 2008. Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,405,315, it would require approximately 10 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

&

JAGfn Rumors
Wednesday, April 09, 2008 05:51ET

Apr 9, 2008 (JAGfn.com via COMTEX) -- (GENZ) (VPHM) Rumor that Genzyme Corporation(Nasdaqgs: Genz) will make a bid for VIROPHARMA INC COM (VPHM). Bid whispered to be cash in the $18 range.

chart:

[la-onda]

short term bad news long term good.
price will go down tomorrow..

ViroPharma Announces Discontinuation of HCV-796 Development
Wednesday, April 16, 2008 18:01ET

EXTON, Pa., April 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) announced today that ViroPharma and Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, a division of Wyeth (NYSE: WYE), have jointly discontinued the development of HCV-796 due to the previously announced safety issue that emerged in the ongoing Phase 2 trial in patients with hepatitis C.

"Clearly, this is a disappointing outcome for patients suffering from this difficult disease," commented Vincent Milano, ViroPharma's president and chief executive officer. "Significant activities were undertaken to determine a clear path forward for HCV-796; however, the risk associated with potential hepatotoxicity ultimately posed too high of a hurdle to merit further development."

The companies will ensure that patients enrolled in the ongoing Phase 2 study will continue to receive the current standard of care. ViroPharma also announced that ViroPharma and Wyeth do not expect to continue to collaborate on future development of hepatitis C treatment candidates.

chart:

[la-onda]

Hi David,
a deeper VPHM analysis after the earnings on 30th of April would be highly appreciated!
tia
Oliver
1)
ViroPharma to Release 2008 First Quarter Financial Results on April 30, 2008
Monday , April 14, 2008 15:59ET

EXTON, Pa., April 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated's (Nasdaq: VPHM) first quarter financial results for 2008 are expected to be released on Wednesday, April 30, 2008 before the open of the U.S. financial markets.

The company will host a conference call and live audio webcast at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time on the same day. During the conference call, ViroPharma management will discuss the 2008 first quarter financial results and other business.

The press release and the live webcast of the conference call will be accessible via ViroPharma's corporate website at http://www.viropharma.com. An audio archive will be available at the same address until May 14, 2008. To participate in the conference call, please dial (877) 366-0713 (domestic) and (302) 607-2000 (international). After placing the call, please tell the operator you wish to join the ViroPharma investor conference call.

2)

Potentially deadly intestinal infections double
Cases of Clostridium difficile spike in nation's hospitals, report shows
By JoNel Aleccia
Health writer
updated 4:10 p.m. ET April 23, 2008

Cases of potentially deadly diarrheal infections jumped by more than 200 percent in the nation's hospitals between 2000 and 2005, fueling new worries about the next bad bug.

Some 301,200 people contracted Clostridium difficile-associated disease — known as CDAD — in 2005, more than twice as many as previously counted, and 28,600 people died from the infection that year, according to a new report by the federal Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

That sharp spike follows a 74 percent increase in the number of CDAD cases recorded between 1993 and 2000. Overall, more than 2 million patients contracted the serious intestinal infection between 1993 and 2005, the report showed.

"It is the next major germ threat," said Betsy McCaughey, the former lieutenant governor of New York state who now heads the Committee to Reduce Infection Deaths — RID — an agency that focuses on improving infection control in hospitals and health care settings.

The bacterium, commonly referred to as C. diff, is as worrisome as Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, or MRSA, a drug-resistant infection linked to more than 94,000 infections and nearly 19,000 deaths in the U.S. in 2005, McCaughey said.

C. diff can cause infections that range from mild diarrhea to an often deadly illness that can be treated only by completely removing a patient's colon. It develops when the normal flora in the human gut is disturbed, typically by previous use of antimicrobial drugs, followed by exposure to the C. diff bacteria.

The infection frequently targets elderly people: two out of three patients who contracted C. diff in 2005 were older than 65, the AHRQ report showed. The death rate among CDAD patients was 9.5 percent, compared to about 2 percent overall.

C. diff spores linger on surfaces
C. diff produces spores that can linger on surfaces such as bedpans, toilet seats or floors for weeks.  It's spread by touch, often by patients who acquire the fecal bacteria from improperly cleaned hospital rooms.

"It's on every surface," McCaughey said. "They get the spores on their hands and their food arrives and they ingest the spores with their dinner rolls."

Alcohol sanitizers are ineffective against the spores, which must be killed with bleach, she added.

It's not clear how much of the spike in CDAD cases was caused by more complete reporting of the hospital discharge data, said Dr. Michael Jhung, an epidemiologist with the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who analyzed the data.

What is clear, however, is that CDAD was more frequently listed as the primary or secondary condition at discharge, he added. Researchers used statistics from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a database of hospital stays that include about 90 percent of all U.S. discharges.

Virulent strain is 20 times more toxic
The data didn't include specific information about a new, virulent strain of C. diff estimated to be about 20 times more toxic than previously known strains. The North American Phenotype 1/027 strain has been responsible for deadly outbreaks of the infection in Europe, Canada and the U.S. during the past several years.

"We do suspect that the virulent strain is increasing," Jhung said.

CDAD can be resistant to many frontline antibiotics, forcing use of the stronger vancomycin. But some infections are resistant to that drug as well, making them difficult or impossible to cure.

The best treatment is prevention, McCaughey said. Hospitals must improve their hygiene practices and patients must be vigilant about not touching surfaces and keeping their hands out of their mouths.

"This is a killer bacterium and we can't be lazy about it," she said.

[la-onda]

Hi David,
a deeper VPHM analysis after the earnings on 30th of April would be highly appreciated!

any update from analysts David (e.g.GS?)?
cheers
Oliver

ViroPharma Incorporated Reports First Quarter 2008 Financial Results
Wednesday, April 30, 2008 07:30ET

EXTON, Pa., April 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) reported today its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2008.

    Key events since December 31, 2007 include:

    Development:

    -- Notified sites participating in Phase 3 study of Camvia(TM) (maribavir)
       in stem cell transplant patients that enrollment will be complete by
       the end of May 2008;
    -- Patient enrollment continued in Phase 3 study of maribavir in solid
       organ transplant patients;
    -- Prelaunch activities for maribavir accelerated in preparation for
       planned 2009 initial NDA and MAA filing for maribavir in stem cell
       transplant patients;
    -- Announced in April that we have discontinued the development of HCV-796
       due to the previously announced safety issue that emerged in the
       ongoing Phase 2 trial in patients with hepatitis C; and
    -- Efforts continued to optimize manufacturing and scale up for non-
       toxigenic C. difficile (NTCD) program;

    Operational:

    -- Vincent J. Milano succeeded Michel de Rosen as president and chief
       executive officer;
    -- Daniel B. Soland appointed chief operating officer;
    -- Net sales of Vancocin(R) achieved $51 million;
    -- Vancocin direct sales efforts commenced; and
    -- Research and development expenses increased by 171 percent over the
       first quarter of 2007, primarily driven by investments in maribavir,
       NTCD and increased personnel to support clinical development and
       regulatory requirements;

    Financial Results:

    -- Operating income was $20 million;
    -- Increased working capital by $25 million to $619 million;
    -- Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments grew by $15 million
       to $599 million; and
    -- 13th consecutive quarter of positive cash flow and profitability
       achieved.

Financial Highlights

Net sales of Vancocin(R) were $50.9 million for the first quarter of 2008 as compared to $49.0 million for the first quarter of 2007.

Investment in our product pipeline and the Company continued to grow as research and development (R&D) and selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses were $27.8 million for the first quarter of 2008 compared to $12.5 million for the first quarter of 2007. These increases were due primarily to the costs, including the costs of increased personnel associated with our phase 3 program for maribavir, along with increased selling, general and administrative expense due to compensations costs, including share-based compensation, which resulted from increased headcount for our European operations and our Vancocin(R) sales force, as well as medical education activities and marketing efforts.

Operating income in the first quarter ended March 31, 2008 was $19.5 million compared to $32.9 million in the first quarter of 2007. Operating income in the first quarter decreased primarily due to higher R&D and SG&A costs discussed above partially offset by the higher net sales.

"The beginning of 2008 has been both a strong period of execution and growing momentum for the company," stated Vincent Milano, ViroPharma's president and chief executive officer. "Our efforts around maribavir, including the ongoing pivotal Phase 3 clinical studies, pre-launch activities, global filing strategy and launch plan development, are all proceeding towards our planned 2009 initial NDA and MAA filings. We've also had continued progress in our C. difficile franchise. The performance of Vancocin was strong, keeping us on track to generate between $210 and $235 million in net sales of the product this year; we successfully launched our new sales force with the goal of growing this trusted brand, which to this day remains the only FDA-approved and clinically proven treatment for these very sick patients with severe C. difficile infection (CDI); and, our work continued in optimizing the manufacturing for our non-toxigenic C. difficile opportunity which we hope to move into human trials later this year."

Continued Milano, "We look forward to a number of significant events throughout 2008, starting in May with the completion of enrollment in our stem cell transplant study of maribavir. In the coming months, we anticipate the publication of the IDSA/SHEA CDI treatment guidelines which highlight the recommendation of Vancocin for treating patients with severe disease based upon compelling clinical trial data that demonstrated the superiority of Vancocin in this patient population."

Net income in the first quarter ended March 31, 2008 was $17.5 million compared to $22.1 million for the same period in 2007. Net income per share for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 was $0.25 per share, basic and $0.22 per share, diluted, compared to a net income of $0.32 per share, basic, and $0.31 per share, diluted, for the same period in 2007. The primary drivers of the change in net income for the first quarter were the effects of decreased operating income discussed above, partially offset by increased interest income and a lower effective tax rate.

Operating Highlights

During the three months ended March 31, 2008, net sales of Vancocin increased 3.9 percent compared to the same period in 2007. The increase resulted from the impact of a price increase in February 2008, partially offset by a decrease in sales volume.

The cost of sales for Vancocin for the three months ended March 31, 2008 decreased $0.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2007 to $1.9 million from $2.2 million for the same period in 2007 due primarily to the decrease in sales volume.

The total remaining costs and expenses associated with operating income were $29.5 million and $13.9 million, for the first quarter of 2008 and 2007, respectively. These increases are primarily due to research and development costs, increased compensation related to our European operations and Vancocin sales force, medical education activities and marketing costs.

The Company's effective income tax rate was 28.5 percent and 39.4 percent for the quarters ended March 31, 2008 and 2007, respectively. Income tax expense includes federal, state and foreign income tax at statutory rates and the effects of various permanent differences. The decrease in the effective rate for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 as compared to the comparative periods in 2007 is primarily due to our current estimate of the impact of orphan drug credit for maribavir. We currently anticipate an effective tax rate in the range of approximately 27 percent to 31 percent for the year ended December 31, 2008, which includes an estimate related to orphan drug credit based upon estimates of qualified expenses and excludes the impact of discreet items and any potential changes in the valuation allowance. We continue to evaluate our qualified expenses and, to the extent that actual qualified expenses vary significantly from our estimates, our effective tax rate will be impacted.

Regarding additional payments due to Lilly in connection with the Vancocin acquisition, net sales as of March 31, 2008 exceeded the milestone threshold of $45.0 million. As a result, the Company recorded additional purchase price of $2.1 million to intangible assets in March 2008.

Working Capital Highlights

As of March 31, 2008, ViroPharma's working capital was $619.5 million, which represents a $25.1 million increase from December 31, 2007. The three month increase is primarily the result of cash flows.

Looking ahead in 2008

ViroPharma is commenting upon previously announced guidance for the year 2008 as a convenience to investors. The following guidance provided by ViroPharma are projections, based upon numerous assumptions, all of which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of the risks and uncertainties associated with these forward looking statements, please see the Disclosure Notice below.

    For the year 2008, ViroPharma expects the following

    -- Net product sales are expected to be $210 to $235 million;

    -- Research and development (R&D) and selling, general and administrative
       (SG&A) expenses, excluding the impact of SFAS 123R, are expected to be
       $105 to $115 million.

    -- The SFAS 123R impact to the above expenses will be in the range of $9
       to $11 million.  Including the impact of SFAS 123R, the research and
       development (R&D) and sales, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses
       are expected to be between $114 and $126 million.

[la-onda]

from Zacks.com

ViroPharma a Deal Up to $14
Wednesday April 30, 10:27 pm ET
By Jason Napodano, CFA

ViroPharma Incorporated's (NasdaqGS: VPHM - News) stock has been in a sideways trend for the past several months. And, although we are maintaining our Buy rating on the stock, we continue to see little movement until an update is issued from the Office of Generic Drug (OGD) on a potential generic Vancocin product.

Management continues to petition the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to delay a generic entrant, most recently submitting views on the in vitro dissolution bi-equivalence testing methods. Approval of a generic product at Strides/Akorn at any time could create volatility in the stock. However, at this level the stock remains incredibly cheap and we are optimistic that management will be able to add significant value in the coming years.

We are maintaining our Buy rating with a price target of $14. This is despite the fact that we expect little movement in the stock price until clarity on the generic Vancocin issue emerges.

We do not expect a generic product launch until 2009. If the FDA/OGD is silent until 2009 that could mean ViroPharma's stock will remain in the tight trading range throughout most of the year. At this time we are looking for the Camvia phase III data from the stem cell transplant (SCT) study in the first quarter 2009 as the best near-term catalyst outside of an update from the FDA/OGD.

ViroPharma exited the first quarter 2008 with $599 million in cash on hand. This is 94% of the current market value of only $640 million. The net cash position (minus $250 million in debt) is still over 50% of the stock value. Management is actively seeking opportunities to put this cash to work.

We are anxiously awaiting an announcement. That being said, ViroPharma is one of the best managed companies in biotech. We are very confident in the financial and strategic position of the company that is key to our recommendation.

At this level ViroPharma stock is too attractive to ignore. Our 2008 revenue forecast of $220.9 million yields a price to sales ratio of 2.9x. This is significantly below the biotechnology peer-group average of around 6.5x. We forecast 2008 EPS at $0.90 (including option expense). Our $14 price target is based on 15.5x our 2008 EPS estimate of $0.90.

[setravis]

VPHM Discusses Q1 Earnings and Sees
Full-Year Sales Above Consensus
ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM) announced Wednesday that firstquarter
earnings fell to $17.4 million, or 22 cents a share, from
$22.1 million, 31 cents, a year ago. Revenue increased to
$50.9 million from $49.0 million. Analysts had expected EPS
of 23 cents.
The President and CEO of Viropharma, Vincent J. Milano, stated in a conference call, "The
first quarter of 2008 represents our 13th consecutive quarter of profitability and positive cash
flows. We ended the quarter with $600 million in cash, and we continue to invest our cash
wisely and safely to withstand the current macro-economic environment."
"We expect our very good start for 2008 to continue through the rest of the year. We are wellpositioned
to meet our full-year guidance of $210 million to $235 million in net sales."
ViroPharma currently commercializes Vancocin(R), which is the only antibiotic approved to
treat two significant bacterial infections of the lower digestive tract. The product is administered
orally and is indicated for the treatment of enterocolitis caused by Staphylococcus
aureus (including methicillin-resistant strains) and antibiotic-associated pseudomembranous
colitis caused by Clostridium difficile.
The Company is also conducting research on non-toxigenic C. difficile (NTCD) with the goals
of preventing the recurrence of disease following effective therapy for acute C. difficile infection
(CDI) and preventing CDI in patients who are susceptible to colonization with toxigenic
strains due to prior use of antibiotics. ViroPharma is also researching next generation antiviral
compounds intended to target hepatitis C.
Camvia(TM) (maribavir) is an orally-administered antiviral Phase 3 drug in development for
prevention of cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease in transplant patients. CMV is a member of the
herpesvirus family and is found in body fluids, including urine, saliva, breast milk, blood, tears,
semen, and vaginal fluids. Once CMV is in a person's body, it stays there for life. CMV is the
most frequent viral illness post transplant and is the most common cause of viral illness-related
death in transplant patients. Prophylaxis (preventative treatment) against CMV disease
is currently underutilized due to toxicity of current treatments.
Mr. Milano added, "We look forward to a number of significant events throughout 2008, starting
in May with the completion of enrollment in our stem cell transplant study of maribavir. In
the coming months, we anticipate the publication of the IDSA/SHEA CDI treatment guidelines
which highlight the recommendation of Vancocin for treating patients with severe disease
based upon compelling clinical trial data that demonstrated the superiority of Vancocin in this
patient population."
He concluded, "With our strong programs and balance sheet, we remain a very compelling
investment option for biotech investors. We believe the work that we are doing today can
provide opportunities for additional growth."

[la-onda]

from Zacks.com

ViroPharma a Deal Up to $14
Wednesday April 30, 10:27 pm ET
By Jason Napodano, CFA
......
At this level ViroPharma stock is too attractive to ignore. Our 2008 revenue forecast of $220.9 million yields a price to sales ratio of 2.9x. This is significantly below the biotechnology peer-group average of around 6.5x. We forecast 2008 EPS at $0.90 (including option expense). Our $14 price target is based on 15.5x our 2008 EPS estimate of $0.90.

Is there any detailed update from Zacks, GS or others available via your tool?

Chart is acting in his trading range

[la-onda]

just on my watchlist but nice chart action:

ViroPharma (VPHM): Drug Pipeline For Free
Jack McKay. May 28, 2008.


Pharmaceutical companies are well-known risks because significant portions of the companies' market values are attributed to the drug pipelines. It is difficult to accurately value drug pipelines because drug trial outcomes are difficult to predict and introduce significant risk. However, when the market ascribes little value to a company's pipeline, the drug trial risk is mitigated, and the share price downside associated with negative drug trial outcomes is minimal. Such a scenario is the case with ViroPharma.

ViroPharma Focus

ViroPharma (NASDAQ:VPHM) is a pharmaceutical company with one marketed drug and several more in the pipeline. ViroPharma has no research or manufacturing operations. The company licenses already-commercialized drugs and drugs in late-stage testing. ViroPharma funds the testing of these orphan drug candidates before outsourcing the actual manufacturing of the drug.

ViroPharma Drugs

ViroPharma's marketed drug is Vancocin, an antibiotic approved to treat two bacterial infections of the lower digestive tract. ViroPharma's most prominent pipeline drug, Camvia (Maribavir), addresses transplant-induced cytomegalovirus (CMV) and is in Phase 3 testing. Vancocin sales have grown steadily the past several years, but the upward trajectory has matured. Additionally, the threat of generic competition for Vancocin has diminished future expectations of the drug's market performance. Meanwhile, the earliest the company can derive significant revenue from Camvia is around 2010. Shares of ViroPharma have traded between $7.11 and $16.62 over the past year. Lacking a drug in the prime of its growth, shares have slipped and currently trade for $8.99.

Vancocin

In 2004, ViroPharma acquired the United States rights for Vancocin from Eli Lilly for $116 million. ViroPharma will pay Eli Lilly additional amounts (35 percent of net sales between $45 million and $65 million) based on annual net sales of Vancocin through 2011. Vancocin is an oral antibiotic approved to treat two bacterial infections of the lower digestive tract. Sales of Vancocin have increased from $125 million in its first full year of sales in 2005 to $204 million in 2007. In 2007, Vancocin sales increased 22 percent over 2006 levels. In the first quarter of 2008, Vancocin sales were $51 million, a 4 percent increase over the $49 million in the same quarter in 2007.

However, patent protection for Vancocin expired in 1996, meaning that ViroPharma's sole source of current revenue is vulnerable to erosion by generics. Indeed, fears of generic competition to Vancocin have increased since an Office of Generic Drugs decision in 2006 allowed for generic alternatives to Vancocin to be tested "in vitro" – meaning that generic alternatives would not have to be tested in humans. When word got out in March 2006, ViroPharma's share price was almost halved, as ViroPharma announced that they believed generic alternatives would hit the market in the 2008-2009 time frame rather than the previously believed 2010-2011 time frame. However, introduction of a generic for Vancocin is still not imminent. Assuming no generic competition for Vancocin this year, ViroPharma expects 2008 Vancocin sales to be in the range of $210 million to $235 million, demonstrating that Vancocin sales have largely plateaued. The 1Q 2008 conference call was held on April 30, 2008, and ViroPharma management had the following to say regarding Vancocin:

"We had another good quarter of Vancocin sales, which positions us to meet our full year guidance of between $210 and $235 million in net sales this year. Our new sales force is now in the field detailing Vancocin... While first quarter sales are consistent with our thesis that the incidence of CDI is plateauing, our opportunities for growth going forward lie not in increases in the overall incidence of disease, but rather in promoting the drug to further penetrate the severe CDI market."

Camvia

In 2003, ViroPharma acquired the worldwide rights (minus Japan) to Camvia, an antiviral medication used in the treatment of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections related to transplant, congenital transmission, and HIV positive patients. Over 100,000 transplants are performed annually worldwide. CMV, a common herpes virus that afflicts between 50 to 80 percent of the adult population in the United States, regularly poses a more serious problem to immunocompromised transplant patients. According to ViroPharma, "approximately 60% of stem cell transplant patients on today's standard of care will become infected with CMV in the first 100 days post transplant. And roughly 10% of transplanted patients will develop CMV disease within six months."

ViroPharma has two Phase 3 studies for Camvia ongoing. A stem cell transplant patient study started enrolling patients in 4Q 2006, while a liver transplant patient study began enrolling patients in 3Q 2007. The stem cell transplant study will finish patient enrollment this month (May 2008).

The market opportunity for Camvia is predicted to be in the ballpark of $500 million per year in sales. According to ViroPharma management, "peak year sales for this drug could be between $400 and $500 million in global sales." However recent analysis has pegged the peak sales number higher. Historically, the few drugs targeting CMV have seen a rapid market uptake. The current market leader Valganciclovir induces serious side effects (it has blackbox warnings), has relatively poor efficacy, and is ineffective in treating a growing percentage of resistant CMV strains. Meanwhile, Phase 2 testing of Camvia showed that "prophylaxis with maribavir significantly reduced the incidence of CMV infection in this population. In addition to the favorable overall safety profile, there was no evidence of myelosuppression or renal toxicity at any of the doses tested." Camvia was granted orphan drug designation by the U.S. FDA in February 2007. The patents covering Camvia lapse in 2015, giving ViroPharma limited time to capitalize on the drug before facing potential generic competition.

Variables

Vancocin and Camvia are the only variables in Viropharma's equation. Hence, the major threats to Viropharma are the market entry of a generic for Vancocin, and a setback in the Phase 3 testing for Camvia (the first Phase 3 results should be released towards the end of 2008).

However, in May, a Thomas Weisel analyst noted that the likelihood of a generic version coming on the market this year "is growing increasingly thin," and that Camvia is on schedule for an early 2009 release. The analyst wrote, "Based on previous Phase II data and conversations with physicians, we believe Camvia will be a game-changer in the treatment of cytomegalovirus (CMV) in transplant patients," Willey wrote. "We believe management's $400-500 million estimate for peak Camvia sales remains highly conservative."

The analyst also noted that ViroPharma lacks short-term catalysts and concerns over generic Vancocin will temper investor enthusiasm until the situation is clearer.

Financials

Vancocin sales in 1Q 2008 increased 4 percent over the same quarter in 2007, but operating earnings shrunk by more than 40 percent due to sales force investments and increased investment in Camvia's Phase 3 testing. At the end of 1Q 2008, ViroPharma has $599 million in cash and equivalents, and $250 million debt. ViroPharma's market cap is $630 million, and the enterprise value is $281M. Free cash flow over the past year (2Q 2007 to 1Q 2008) is $121 million, while free cash flow over the past three years is approximately $285M, which is roughly equal to the company's present enterprise value.

Conclusion

Most analysts believe that the current value of Vancocin is roughly equal to the current enterprise value, meaning that the current share price is covered just by net cash and the present value of Vancocin's future cash flows. As a Piper Jaffray analyst stated, "we see a $9 to $10 absolute floor on the valuation from Vancocin and current cash alone, meaning that ViroPharma's promising pipeline drug Camvia is unaccounted for in the current valuation. Observers have noted that Camvia is worth about $4 - $5 to ViroPharma at present, and around $8 if Phase 3 testing is successful. For investors, there may not be a free lunch, but in ViroPharma, there is a free pipeline drug.

More information:

Q4 2007 Earnings Transcript

Q1 2008 Earnings Transcript

2007 Annual Report




http://yodastocks.com/analysis/viropharma


cheers

Oliver

[la-onda]

Rams, could you please help:
ViroPharma Started At Buy By Stanford >VPHM

thanks in advance
Oliver

[la-onda]

fyi:

Viropharma Comments On Upcoming FDA Advisory Committee Meeting
Thursday June 5, 9:20 am ET

EXTON, Pa., June 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) notes that FDA has published a notice of a meeting of its Advisory Committee for Pharmaceutical Science and Clinical Pharmacology to be held on July 23, 2008. The Committee will address several issues at this meeting, including a discussion of:

    " ... presentations from the Office of Generic Drugs (OGD) on the
    bioequivalence methods for locally acting drugs that treat
    gastrointestinal (GI) conditions ... "

For over two years, ViroPharma has called for a deliberative public discussion that would include input from clinicians as well as biopharmaceutics and dissolution experts. Bioequivalence determinations for locally acting GI drugs, particularly drugs like Vancocin® that treat a serious and potentially life threatening disease, are complex. Clostridium difficile infection results in significant morbidity and mortality, and has developed into a national health issue. The risk to patients of a product that is not bioequivalent to Vancocin in this setting is high.

"While the notice does not specifically identify Vancocin, ViroPharma intends to take every opportunity to ensure the points we've raised through our submissions will be brought forward to this committee," commented Thomas F. Doyle, ViroPharma's vice president, strategic initiatives.

ViroPharma is encouraged that FDA is taking this first step to allow a critique of OGD's bioequivalence proposals. As the company noted in a letter that it sent to FDA earlier this year (newly available on the company's website at http://www.viropharma.com/OGDpetition/), bioequivalence for Vancocin is deserving of "at least the same level of process and scientific discussion it has previously afforded locally acting GI drugs used to treat far less serious disease where the consequence associated with getting it wrong do not pose as great a risk to patients."

About Clostridium difficile

One of the most serious problems facing the U.S. healthcare system today is hospital-acquired infections (HAIs). Clostridium difficile infection is one of the most common and devastating HAIs. The incidence of C. difficile observed in U.S. healthcare facilities more than doubled between 2000 and 2005; between 1999 and 2004, reported mortality rates from C. difficile in the U.S. more than quadrupled to 23.7 per million. Elderly patients exposed to antibiotics, long-term care patients, or those that have a serious underlying illness, are at greatest risk to contract the disease. Patients with this disease have GI tract conditions that are significantly different from those of a healthy individual due to infection. Typical symptoms include diarrhea, fever, nausea and abdominal pain and dehydration, though cases can lead to life threatening complications such as megacolon, peritonitis and perforation of the colon.

[Ramsburg]

sorry for the delay 
The initial post is now updated.

[Ramsburg]

Update:

Our trading plan missed an entry for VPHM through yesterday’s session. The stock was flat for the first hour, and started to rally big time with no intraday consolidations. I was expecting a slow down before the rally providing our entry zone, but yesterday’s market behavior was too bullish to provide that.

Anyway, we’re not going to chase VPHM, I still believe that a throwback to the breakout area ($10) is probable because of these reasons:
- Before the breakout, there was no consolidation, VPHM just breakout the resistance and moved 1$ higher.
- The current story in play will be up until July, and even if we believe it will have a positive outcome, some analysts are not so positive (mix feelings, see attached PDF’s below), this should provide some volatility, where the downside would be $10.

In the last 24 hours, several research departments have published comments on the recent events in play:
– Download PDF’s

Probably it was an error not to buy VPHM at yesterdays open, and try to buy 25 ticks below… but chasing it would be against our current strategic plan for this portfolio, so we’ll keep the standby trading plan:

Standby trading plan:
Buy VPHM between $10.00 and $10.25

[Ramsburg]

Bought VPHM @ $10.16 for the Portfolio.

[Ramsburg]

Update:

Friday's general market plunge allowed us to open our position on VPHM inside our predefined entry range; in this case we've bought it @ $10.16 which is near the breakout area ($10).

The nearest support is $10 (breakout area and ex-resistance), followed by $9.72 (200-EMA), $9.33 (50-EMA) and $9.00 (ascending support line).

In normal market conditions we would expect a full upside reaction at $10.00 (which is also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement), but due to current volatility we can probably watch a test to the next support zones without compromising the current bullish layout.

We are not setting a hard stop level right now, but we'll use $9.00 as a reference like stated on the initial post, and the $13 area as a possible target.

Trading Plan:
HOLD VPHM

[Ramsburg]

Update:

VPHM had a first positive reaction on the breakout zone ($10), even though the current general market behavior is not helping the development of this position, and it is possible to watch VPHM trading below this support level if the market continues to tumble during the next trading days.

We’re updating the trading plan, setting a stop level and a target sell price following our initial trading idea.
$13 is our target, based on both TA and FA, $13 is the projection of previous range and by coincidence near the long term resistance. $13 is also a logic target following the most recent fundamental research on this stock taking in consideration good developments in the next FDA meeting.
About the stop price, basically the ascending support line is at $9.00, and in a very pessimistic scenario this is the maximum downside that VPHM can have in order to maintain the upside scenario In Play, so we’re placing the stop a few ticks below this level, and we’ll have a 1/3 risk/reward ratio in play.

The new trading plan is:

Trading Plan:
Sell @ $13.00, Stop @ $8.95