VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[brandyjoco]

Yes, I like VPHM. It now has lots of cash in the bank (for a possible acquisition?) and a product that is profitable. I always thought it would go to $35 ... I guess we shall see.

[Jimbo]

Hey Fred,

I think there is something wrong with your entry price ( probably typing error - 20,75 instead of 20.75 ).

You might want to check it out   

[KCScott]

This is one I bought on a dip ($16.70) and am so glad I held through the "Generic" scare the MMs tried to put on the investors.

Glad to have some focus on this from the group moving forward.

[AussieTrader]

Filled a gap today from the Nov sell off, shaping up nicely for move towards the $22 to $24 zone

OK Ok it just had a sneaky peek into the gap

[David Randolph]

Here's a graph of VPHM's revenue trend:



(sorry for your eyes, I just love these Excel colours  )

2005 and Vancocin did this to VPHM. I believe it will never go back down, because Vancocin sales won't stop (probably they won't stop growing).

But I still have to study more (particularly, I need to read this entire thread)

On the pipeline VPHM has this:



Like in stocks, perhaps it is better to have just 3 or 4 good products than a lot of them that will never come to the market.

The most interesting part of VPHM's financials are their margins: over the last quarter, gross margin was 85.7% and net margin was 51.42%. If these margins continue, the company will have net profit of $86.44M in 2006, and the forward earnings multiple is 16 (but analysts don't predict such a high number for net profit).

I'll keep on holding VPHM.

[shawFund]

What I see VPHM:

Short term: down, long term: up

I made a short term trade this morning in $19.9 out $20.4

The short term trend is down and will take position later on weakness.

Yesterday, it gave a bearish candlestick signal (trend reversal - doji is always a good indication of reversal).

[Terliso]

There is no doubt VPHM is a growth stock.... but i think it's not time yet to buy, will wait & see for a while... goodluck

[Michael]

Well Terlisa timing is always difficult but over the long run I wouldn't really care about my entry point on Viropharma.

David thought that 6.05 was a great entry point in June 05 and he was right as usual. unfortunately he also thought that 7.19 was a good time to take profit. Hmmmmm.......

The point is that VPHM by all measures is extremely attractive priced even today. You might be able to get in a bit lower but then you might also miss the train. It seems to me that more people have made mistakes selling than buying too early.

I and a few other members are up +500% on VPHM just by holding the stock. Today I can't even remember whether I bought it at 4 or 4.5 but I for sure wouldn't sell it at this level.

Mike

[1reilly]

Michael
I can only applaud your last statement.

[shawFund]

Whenever we buy a company's stock, we always believe that it will bring us good return.

But I do not trust any company no mattr how good it looks like.

All of us must remember how good EYII.OB was when we first knew this stock. It lost 80% from our buying price ($0.1 -> $0.02). This is the first company I did not set up stop-loss becuse its picture was so rosy at that time. Eventually I lost almost $9,000. I still have $500 worth of stock in my account now.

My manager almost fired me because of this bad investment.

Never trust any company no matter it is microsoft, GE, GM, DAL, ... unless it can bring me money.

Therefore, the first thing after I bought a stock is to set up stop-loss of 7%
unless it gaps down like FORD did last December (no way to escape).

This is just risk management needed for long term investment.

There is no difference for VPHM.

For VHPM, $20.75 x 7% = $1.45, that is I will sell it if it dropped to $19.30l (I did  not own it right now). It may recover, but I will sell anyway.

So it is very important to buy at proper pivot price.

For long term, we should not short SPY, QQQQ at all.

They will certainly bring us on average 7-8% return per year.

I think that our 3StocksOnFire is to identify momentum stocks (either up or down) to make much better return than the market returns. All of David's last year's picks follows this idea.
If the momentum of a particular stock continues, keep it. It may last one year or more.

Have we changed the investment strategy?

Look at VPHM chart, it could go either way (short term) and it may touch $19.30 if the general market turns bearish next few days.

[netfishmademerich]

It may recover, but I will sell anyway.

I agree with this 100%.  When I need to get out, I get out.  It may or may not "recover", and I never bet on it.  I'd rather take the loss and put my money elsewhere and try to "recover" with a new trade.

[Terliso]

You got it all... right on the spot Shawfund

[David Randolph]

David thought that 6.05 was a great entry point in June 05 and he was right as usual. unfortunately he also thought that 7.19 was a good time to take profit. Hmmmmm.......

Nice to read things from you Michael, I thought you would show up if I bought VPHM 

I have to congrat you for the excellency of your VPHM pick and the management of the position after you bought. Your trade was excellent. But mine wasn't as bad as you paint, since I bought the stock back around $9 and sold around $16.

Anyway, I think holding the stock for the long term was and is the best strategy.

All of us must remember how good EYII.OB was when we first knew this stock. It lost 80% from our buying price ($0.1 -> $0.02). This is the first company I did not set up stop-loss because its picture was so rosy at that time. Eventually I lost almost $9,000. I still have $500 worth of stock in my account now.

My manager almost fired me because of this bad investment.

EYII.OB is an OTCBB stock. It was for a particular kind of trade, a «double or nothing» trade. I'm also down 80% on that trade, but I lost only $800.

Why? Because I specifically said (a dozen times) I would only invest $1,000 on that very risky strategy. Money management is the most important skill that a trader/investor needs to develop.

I think that our 3StocksOnFire is to identify momentum stocks (either up or down) to make much better return than the market returns. All of David's last year's picks follows this idea.
If the momentum of a particular stock continues, keep it. It may last one year or more.

Have we changed the investment strategy?

I don't know about you shawFund, I guess not, but I'm changing. I'm migrating from being a trader to be an investor. I'll write an article explaining why.

This doesn't mean I'll let a loss grow more than it should. But it does mean I'll work hard to pick stocks that go up several fold while I'm on board for the long term move.

You see, you work to get your 5 or 10% on each trade, right? But, if you hold a rising stock for the long term, those 5 or 10% may mean another double for a long term investor. On a good long term pick you may collect several doubles in a few weeks, much easier than with short term trading.

Now, the difficult part is to find the right stocks to get advantage of this incredible leverage ! I'm working on that ...

You can see from my words that I'm tired ... let's move on.

VPHM went down 3% yesterday to close at support. It may go down a bit further, I really don't know. What I do know is that on a comparative basis with other pharma stocks, VPHM is still very cheap.

Being «cheap» is not my sole basis for investing, of course. I'm studying and looking to own 15 good stocks for the long term, VPHM might be one of those. It depends on further investigation.

I want to make less trades/better trades to continue achieving superior long term results.

[usedcasting]

Dave I personally commend you on your new investment direction. I have followed 3SOF for 6 months and in my case allot of money has gone as trading expenses. Just one question; would you consider increasing the size of your trades,in other words reducing your portfolio from 15 stocks or 6.66%.

uc.

[David Randolph]

Dave I personally commend you on your new investment direction. I have followed 3SOF for 6 months and in my case allot of money has gone as trading expenses. Just one question; would you consider increasing the size of your trades,in other words reducing your portfolio from 15 stocks or 6.66%.

uc.

Perhaps that's a good idea, since finding good stocks for the long term is so hard, why not consider a maximum of 10 stocks instead of 15?

I think if one considers candlesticks, trendlines, moving averages and stuff like that one will never, ever, have a 20 or 30 bagger in his portfolio. Consider this: a stock that you own goes from $1 to $30. Then it rises 10% more, to $33. The man that bought at $30, made 10%. But you quadrupled your initial money, again.

Does anyone think it is possible to own a stock from $1 to $30 solely based on technical analysis? I know it is impossible, there are so many false signals and times when the stock turns bearish for a while, before it runs higher again.

Thanks for your suggestion and support uc., I'll think about it over the weekend and possibly write an article on a strategy shift.