VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[brandyjoco]

WOW... thanks for all the hard work!!!

I'm buying 2000 shares for starters....

I don't know how to applaud ... but you have earned lots of them!

[ncham]

I hope all that is true, but i'm pretty skeptical of anything written on the yahoo boards. I doubled down around 10.4 on monday. Too bad there arent some decent analysts on this stock. Pretty good article on fool.com though.

[[D] Investor]

bohemian2k, can you post the URLs of the information you have discovered about VPHM?

If the generic is indeed for VETERINARIAN use only and VPHM has nothign to lose, then why is VPHM so worried that they are submitting a petition?

Why isn't there an immediate news annoucement about the veterinarian confusion from major financial news media?

[peterwangos]

Depend data from yahoo

21-Mar-06 10.70 11.38 10.64 10.90 <font face=verdana size=4 color=red>15,202,300</font> 10.90
 
20-Mar-06 10.95 11.08  9.70 10.58 <font face=verdana size=4 color=red>36,183,000</font> 10.58

17-Mar-06 16.13 16.17 10.35 10.86 <font face=verdana size=4 color=red>49,777,200</font> 10.86


Depend data from Nasdaq

Total Shares Out Standing (millions):  69
 
Market Capitalization ($ millions):  $744
 
<font face=verdana size=4 color=red>Institutional Ownership:  76.7%</font>
 
Price (as of 3/24/2006)  10.85

Couldnot be both true? any clue for real institutional position? thx.

[bohemian]

I started looking back through the MB... can't select by date so it's a guessing-game as to what posting # it may be.  I can't deny that I'm long on VPHM, and I know that is evident by the items I covered.  My intention here was more to provide a summary of "Claims I Heard on Yahoo" ; however I wish to apologize for committing the very act I dismiss other posters upon... not citing my sources.  Promise to be diligent about that from here on.  Again, while most of the material I relayed comes from what I have to assume as being more credible sources - a purely instinctual thing, some of them had provided links.  I can't remember whether the reference to veterinarian approval was linked, I have a sense that it was.  Couldn't find it using the Y-message search, which dismays me because I know I didn't make this up.  That conversation was from about 11-3-ish on Monday.
As for my obvious long sentiment, I would give credit to shorts who were daytrading and were taking advantage of a great setup; but the amount of nonsensical bashing that was going on there enabled me to hit the ignore button often.
BTW, my take on VPHM making a statement:  May have been the only reason this even got anyone's attention in the first place - precipitating the slide; cynical as I am, this is not out of the equation.  Otherwise, it was perhaps to reiterate concern about a perceived threat to their patent.  If I'm correct as a cynic, the next move is for this stock to run up past $24 on good news they may be sitting on, good earnings as well - the only way to verify would be to find out how many shares were (re)purchased by insiders.  If this was a market manipulation, it really couldn't have happened at a more opportune moment.
I'm feeling a bit out on the same 'speculative limb' at the moment, I'd better quit here.

[fantazia]

"5) Maribavir Phase III will begin as scheduled mid year in stem cells, and end of year in organs, indicating that all is clear in Phase II!!

If this is true - then Maribavir results should be positive next week??

Why is this stock in such a tight trading range - any thoughts on entering some buys at this point?"

Brandyjoco,

Please listen to the Goldman Sach's conference call, the CEO Derosen specifically stated that the company would initiate Maribavir Phase 3 trials ***IF the results from phase 2 (which are coming soon) are positive.  Lets not confuse when The CEO talks about "what the company hopes to achieve in 2006" with what will happen.

The conference was very positive indeed and I don't  believe you will see VPHM trade this low for too long.  It is way out of line with the fundamentals even with worst case scenario of a generic entering the market in 2008-2009 (and I highly doubt it) . The company is very profitable and will continue to be profitable even *IF* a Generic would enter the market to capture a piece of it at some point in time.


Fantazia

[la-onda]

fyi:


next months data will be very interesting; IMO this was monitored before the rumerous

VPHM: Short Interest DN 20.3% to 4.6M in Mar 2006
Friday , March 24, 2006 16:22 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) DECREASED 20.3% to 4,613,461 shares for the month ended mid-March, 2006.

SYMBOL        FEBRUARY        MARCH          CHANGE       %CHANGE    DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
VPHM           5,792,152       4,613,461      -1,178,691       -20.35%           1

Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 7,585,675, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

[Lucas Scott]

Could this be the week for a DIET-like bounce? My buy stop triggered at 11.11 so I'm back in. Target $13 - $14

[AussieTrader]

There seems so much dodgyness to this collapse that any positive news regarding the FDA ruling will likely pop VPHM a decent percentage upwards.

Now the dust has settled and a bottom found I decided to get some options, so I purchased Aug  $15 Calls ( +DUZHC ), paid $85 per contract (contract being 100 options).

Reason for options? As I'm looking for a recovery play, the returns from options give me a better risk reward here. Aug calls gives me a few weeks /months for recovery to play out.

What about the risk I here people say? Well with options I only buy as many contracts as I would actual shares e.g. if my normal position size for VPHM (at $11 each) is 1000 shares, then I buy 10 contracts. So I control 1000 shares but only pay $850.

Last price on these calls was $100 per contract

[calven]

I love VPHM but I just cant see anything happening in the near term without any significant news releases...

So many fresh bagholders that are pissed off and want to sell out of VPHM after the drop....VPHM will need to either release news to eat up their shares or VPHM will need time to "process" the bagholders.

I see 12.30-12.40 as huge resistance - I could be wrong but we can at least agree to disagree.

cal 

[fantazia]

Huge news out from VPHM tonight, looking for nice pop tommorow!

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060329/nyw169.html?.v=32

[oicpecnoc]

Hoping for a SQUEEZE.  I  bought 1k at 12.15 pre maturely, and then doubled down with another 1k at 10.84.  I am looking for 14 to bail.  We shall see.

[fantazia]

why bail? Maribavir will be best in class for CMV (if all goes as planned in phase 3) this alone is a potential 500million market.  That aside,  Vancocin scripts are near record levels in this Q1, 1 full quarter ahead of peak script season. This is a 25-30$ stock in 1-2years. Data on thier phase 1 candidate for Hep. C is due out early Q2.

I just put my shares away and let the stock do its work!

[oicpecnoc]

Fantazia,

There is a lot of panic still over the generic scare, and if the hedgies are hell bent on driving it down as they seemed to be, there will be too many rebound players looking to lock in short term rebound profits, and the hedgies know it. Add that to the people who buy on the gap freaking out as it drops and you could see some big selling at some point.  I see possibly locking in some profits, and picking up more on the dip.

Of course, I could be an idiot and it could go straight to the moon as I question my IQ. It would not be the first time.  I will admit it is tempting to just turn my head, but if there is a big gap, I've got to take advantage of it. 

[fantazia]

Oicpecnoc,

Nothing wrong with taking profits. 

Myself though I prefer to be patient and take a lot bigger profits down the road (2-3years). Look how VRTX took off from 10's to 40's on news of a blockbuster drug in its pipeline, I bet  those selling on the original pop from 10's to 15's are kicking themselves big time. Biotech is a beast in its own right.  A stock can come crashing down and just as fast come sprinting up. Its all about future revenue drivers. Maribavir looks really good at this point.

Besides, I can't find this generic Vancocin that scared so many off, its still a myth of *if/but/maybe* it will be on the market in 2008/2009 (if ever)  I will hold my shares

Good luck to all