VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[la-onda]

updated institutional holdings & updated chart

[la-onda]

From: "irc203" <irc203@...>
Date: Wed May 17, 2006  3:18 pm
Subject: IMS Monthly Prescription are Sweet    irc203
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Prescriptions for the month of April totaled 18,922. A very strong
number for the first month of the quarter. This is the second highest
monthly total on record. The highest monthly total on record is
19,529, which was for March of 2006. We are not much off the record
and we are on trend to higher numbers. I thought it would be a record
for April, but it was not off by much. The difference may be due to
noise.  Regardless, the number is very strong, much higher than last
year. And the price increase was in effect for the full month.

[la-onda]

From: "irc203" <irc203@...>
Date: Mon May 22, 2006  4:05 pm
Subject: IMS Health Weekly Prescription Numbers Continue to be Strong!  irc203

The prescription number for the week ended 5/12/06 is the second
higest number on record and is very close to being a new all time
high. Prescriptions totaled 2,545 for the week ended 5/12/06. The
record high remains 2,552 for the week ended 4/28/06. Prescriptions of
2,490 for the week ended 5/5/06 is now the third highest number on
record. We are seeing very strong numbers compared to last year. This
is excellent news in terms of demand for Vancocin and sales for the
second quarter!

&

Drug cuts hepatitis C virus up to 97pct
Sunday May 21, 12:37 pm ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Viropharma Inc (NasdaqNM:VPHM - News) on Sunday said its experimental drug, being developed with Wyeth Inc. (NYSE:WYE - News), cut levels of the hepatitis C virus by up to 97 percent in a small 14-day clinical trial.
The drug was given for 14 days by itself to patients infected with the virus who had not been previously treated with other medicines. The drug is designed to block an enzyme called polymerase that the virus, which can cause fatal liver damage, needs to replicate itself.

Patients in the Phase I trial twice daily received 50 milligram, 100 milligram, 250 milligram, 500 milligram, 1000 milligram, or 1500 milligram oral doses of the medicine, called HCV-796, or received placebos. "Peak antiviral response was achieved at doses of 500 twice daily and higher," Viropharma said in a release, and the medicine was well tolerated. Mean virus levels were cut by 1.4 log to 1.5 log -- or 96 to 97 percent -- in patient groups receiving the three highest doses of the drug.
The amount of viral reduction, however, is less than the greater than 99 percent reduction that has been shown in previous clinical trials of another experimental drug being developed by Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NasdaqNM:VRTX - News).

[la-onda]

VPHM: Short Interest DN 22.7% to 6.0M in May 2006
Wednesday, May 24, 2006 16:24 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) DECREASED 22.7% to 5,950,984 shares for the month ended mid-May, 2006.

SYMBOL      APRIL                   MAY          CHANGE           %CHANGE     DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
VPHM           7,696,507       5,950,984      -1,745,523       -22.68%           3

Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 2,548,640, it would require approximately 3 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

[la-onda]

chart with comments from alimovstock from yahoo:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p70100370122&a=77742278&listNum=1

[la-onda]

update:
ViroPharma Files Supplement to Vancocin Petition for Stay of Action
Wednesday, May 31, 2006 17:30 ET

EXTON, Pa., May 31, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) today filed a supplement to its Petition for Stay of Action with the FDA regarding the bioequivalence requirements for abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) that seek to copy Vancocin. The document sets forth legal arguments in support of ViroPharma's strong belief that the decision of the FDA's Office of Generic Drugs (OGD) to lower the bioequivalence standards for generic copies of Vancocin violated numerous federal statutes and FDA's own regulations with the result that the new standard cannot, as a matter of law, be used in the review or approval of applications for generic versions of Vancocin.

In addition to this filing, ViroPharma intends to supplement the Petition for Stay of Action later this quarter with a filing containing scientific arguments that show that the OGD's new standard is unsupportable as a matter of science.

The filing made by ViroPharma today can be viewed in its entirety on ViroPharma's corporate website, at http://www.viropharma.com/OGDpetition. The document is also being furnished today with the SEC as an exhibit to a Current Report on Form 8-K, and will be available on the EDGAR section of the SEC website as well as the SEC filings page of the 'investing' section of the ViroPharma website. The company also expects that the document will become available on the docket management section of the FDA website within approximately two weeks.

ViroPharma intends to vigorously oppose any approach that does not require rigorous scientific methods including human clinical studies, consistent with good medicine and science. The company also believes that, given the growing number of patients with severe, and possibly life-threatening, C. difficile- associated disease, the appropriate expert advisory groups must validate the scientific and medical appropriateness of the approval standards for a generic locally acting vancomycin capsule product.

C. difficile is a bacterium, which under certain circumstances, typically after antibiotic therapy, can colonize the lower gastrointestinal tract where it may produce toxins which cause inflammation of the colon and diarrhea, and the associated complications of disease, including death. Advanced age, gastrointestinal surgery/manipulation, long length of stay in healthcare settings, a serious underlying illness and compromised immunity are conditions associated with increased risk of disease. According to the CDC, there are approximately 3,000,000 cases of antibiotic-associated diarrhea per year, of which 15 to 25 percent are caused by C. difficile.


39 pages document; a must read if you are long:http://www.viropharma.com/OGDpetition/VancocinLegalSubmisionFINAL.pdf[/b][/color]

chart today:
Today's Candlestick Patterns:
White Candlestick
Bullish Engulfing

[la-onda]

BO will come soon:
1)
alimovstock chart analysis (please read carefully):

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p15522837194&a=78130077&listNum=1

2)
After hours:
Real-Time ECN | Order Book   
Get Real-Time ECN for:

VIROPHARMA INC (RT-ECN)    
Symbol:   VPHM
Last Trade:   10.90 Jun 1
After Hours Change:   Up 0.99 (9.99%)
Today's Change:   Up 1.17 (12.02%)
Bid:   9.03
Ask:   10.79

Today's Candlestick Patterns:
White Spinning Top

[la-onda]

Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day Highlights: ViroPharma, Tekelec, Opsware and Petrobras
Friday , June 02, 2006 06:00 ET

CHICAGO, Jun 02, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Zacks Equity Research highlights ViroPharma, Inc. (Nasdaq:VPHM) as the Bull of the Day.

Bull of the Day:

Our Bull of the Day recommendation is for ViroPharma, Inc. (Nasdaq:VPHM). ViroPharma is a pharmaceutical company engaged in the development and commercialization of products that address diseases caused by infectious agents such as a virus or pathogenic bacteria. The company has one approved product, Vancocin Capsules, for the treatment of antibiotic-associated infection, and two mid-stage candidates for viral infections. Recent concerns over a generic alternative to Vancocin and poor inventory management have hampered the stock. Although the above two issues will continue to linger, ViroPharma is trading at a significant discount to its peers. Our target is $16.


9 slides update:http://www.zacks.com/newsroom/commentary/index_pdf.php?id=3095

or as attachment for downloading:

[la-onda]

VPHM and FDA Link:
http://www.fda.gov/ohrms/dockets/dockets/06p0124/06p0124.htm

please check bollinger bands, 10.33 has to be broken to get VPHM running again IMO.

any feedback from other board members or Michael  ?

cheers
Oliver

[ScottishTrader]

Hi Oliver,

I don't have a position in VPHM right now, and while it was nice to see it break into the 10.00 gap on Friday, I was surprised at the lack of volume and price movement on this move.  However, as long as it holds 10.00 on a closing basis, it shouldn't have too much difficulty moving back up to fill the gap and get back into the 11.00 range.

Personally I think that VPHM has taken a pretty big credibility hit with their last report, and this could take some time to resolve.  The share price still simply does not reflect the fundamentals for this company, especially with the positive news for Maribavir (The Zacks report seemed to hit the nail on the head really, and I'm surprised it didn't have a bigger effect on the share price).

Technically, it had a break of descending resistance on Thursday and arguably an ascending triangle breakout Friday, MACD Histo is positive, and RSI is hitting on 50, so things look short term positive.  It also moved clearly above the 13ema (my favourite short term indicator), which has started to turn upwartds, sugggesting a new positive trend.  I think that the important factors now are how it reacts to the 50MA and the top of the gap, and also getting MACD back into positive territory.  All of these things could potentially happen this week.  If volume starts to kick in as it runs to 11, it could have legs, but Friday's action makes me think VPHM has a long battle still ahead of it.

I know you are holding this long term and probably added to your position below 10.00.  If so, I  doubt we will see the single digits on a closing basis and think this should be a perfectly good long term hold, as the price begins to reflect fundamentals (and future prospects) once again.  It may also reflect a decent short term low gain (5-10%) trade as well.

Good luck

Scotsman

[la-onda]

chart from alimovstock:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p20806483463&a=78359633&listNum=1


IMS WEEKLY NUMBERS:

IMS Health weekly prescription numbers for the week ended 5/26/06
totaled 2,498 versus 2,394 for the week ended 5/19/05. New scripts
for the week ended 5/26/06 totaled 2,162 versus 2,080 for the week
ended 5/19/06.
Total prescriptions of 2,498 is a very strong number. Even better is
new prescriptions for the week totaling 2,162 versus 2,080 for the
prior week. The incidence of CDAD is appears to be increasing,
although one week is not enough to be certain.

[ScottishTrader]

Well, unfortunately VPHM didn't exactly hold 10.00 and is back in the single digits.  upside volume needs to kick in in a big way to get this moving, and at this point that may have to wait until some clearly positive indications that VPHM remains on track with its earnings estimates, to restore investor confidence.  Again, long term this has got to be a hold (and possibly accumulate)  but short term it doesn't seem to be very bullish.

[la-onda]

please listen to the conference very carefully:

http://customer.talkpoint.com/GOLD006/061206a_cs/linkdefault.asp?entity=viropharma

1st summarization (quotation):
Excellent CC!!
by: cbenarroch_2000
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy    06/14/06 08:09 pm
Msg: 135046 of 135090

- YTD '06 Prescriptions up 30% vs YTD '05. I guess the numbers showed in this board were 100% correct.
- May '06 Prescriptions up 10% over April '06.
- Expect '06 sales much higher than '05.
- Scientific data report out before June 30, 06.
- Gross Margin in 2005 = 86-87%. Expect GM for the 1st half to be a bit lower due to $4.5M payment to Lilly for additional inventory.
- Cost of Good for Vancocin manufactured in the new facility in NY for 2nd half of 06 and forward will be half of the current COG.
- Marib Phase III stem cell to start very soon (3rd quarter) & Phase III solid transplant before the end of 2006. Consider huge markets not only transplants.
- Hepatitis drug: 50-50% in the US with Wyeth, and 15% for VPHM outside the US. Wyeth paying most of the expenses. Expect more details on results of Phase I on the 3rd quarter and start of Phase II before the end of 3rd quarter.
- Main barriers for generics will be two: 1. Manufacturing process took 20 months for Lilly to transfer process from IL to NY (Complex). 2. FDA approval of these manufacturing processes in order to meet the safety and results requirement for the agency.

2nd summarization:
Transcript of COG statement.
by: viking_cajun
Long-Term Sentiment: Buy    06/15/06 12:08 am
Msg: 135080 of 135090

This is a transcript from the Goldman conference that just concluded. As best I can, I'm not a spring chicken anymore, I've type a reasonable summary of what was said by Michel de Rosen, CEO of Viropharma.
COG statement: "In fact what happened is Lilly had decided to transfer the manufacture of vancocin even before they decided to sell the commercial rights. So they looked around and chose two companies they believed would do the job well. The chose Alpharma a well known company for the active ingredient and they chose OSG for the commercial manufacturing. And so, we are happy to report, that as of not many weeks ago this tranfer is now successful. We are still using some supplies from Lilly but now we have also started using supplies from the new supply chain Alpharma plus OSG. Our gross margin in 2005 was approx 86 or 87%. Expect our gross margin in the 1st half 2006 to be a little worse because we decided with Lilly to pay Lilly an extra $4.5-million to make sure they would supply us even more than originally anticipated because we wanted to make sure that we would have enough supply. So because of that the gross margin will be slightly worse in the first-half 2006. But, the COG of the new supply chain will be significantly reduced by approximately half. The COG of the new supply chain will be approx half compared to the supply chain of Lilly. Because of that you should expect in the end of 2006 and certainly the whole of 2007 and for 2008 and onwards you should expect the gross margin to be significantly improved. And we have not given a figure there but you can do the calculations knowing the cost of goods are approximately divided by 2."
This is Michel de Rosen's statement when describing one of the barriers to generic introduction of oral vancocin.

Manufacturing barrier to Oral Vancocin. "The API is quite easy to buy, a number of companies provide it. On the other hand, the commerical manufacture is not simple. It is doable a good company can do it. But it just takes some time, there are some complexities, some trade secrets, We have seen this first hand, because we saw that it took approx 20 months for Elli Lilly to transfer successfully the manufacturing from Lilly's Indiana plant to OSG in New York state. And this is Lilly and OSG working collaboratively together. You may find some companies around the world who say they can manufacture vancocin also. But you have to manufacture vancocin in a way that the FDA would consider is appropriate. So this just takes time."

3rd summarization:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=135056
listen to Q&A also carefully !

nice VPHM chart update (quotation):

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p43980909090&a=78114813

any comments after listening to the conference is highly appreciated

cheers
Oliver

[la-onda]

New Record! IMS Health Monthly
by: irc203
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy  06/14/06 09:24 am
Msg: 134857 of 135134

Prescriptions totaled 20,851 for the month of May eclipsing the old record of 18,922 set in April. The second quarter is shaping up to be a record quarter!

New prescriptions for May totaled 17,681 which exceeds the new prescriptions of April which totaled 16,219.

[la-onda]

awesome 

VPHM @ Russell 3000 soon, funds have to buy VPHM 

http://www.russell.com/US/Indexes/US/Reconstitution/recon_additions.asp