Post your pick HERE (5th Edition)

[Ramsburg]

Stock Picking Contest (5th Edition - From 24/Apr/2006 to 29/May/2006)

To Submit your Stock Pick, reply to this Topic following the Standard Layout:

1)   Stock Pick
(Ticker & Name of the Company)

2)   Reason behind this pick
(a Text with at least 50 words, featuring the reasons of your stock pick)

3)   Stock Chart
(Click in additional options, browse for your chart file GIF/JPG/PNG and add it to your post, if you don't have a Charting software, we suggest you copy a chart from www.stockcharts.com)

Before you post your Pick: Read the Contest Rules --> HERE
(No penny stocks allowed among other restrictions)

Important: Do not use this thread to another purpose rather than submitting your stock pick. For organizational purposes, any reply that is not a stock pick will be deleted.

[dhiraj19]

My pick is again same:
AZK

Company Summary: Aurizon Mines, Ltd. operates as a gold mining company with operations, development, and exploration activities in the gold producing Abitibi region of north-western Quebec. It owns a 100% interest in the Casa Berardi property located approximately 95 kilometer north of the town La Sarre in the province of Quebec. The company was incorporated as 343318 B.C., Ltd. in April 1988 and changed its name to Aurizon Mines, Ltd. in August 1988. Aurizon Mines is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
The company is involved in gold mining and has an upcoming mine in next quarter which will provide it lot of gold with profitable streak.
Last news:
"Aurizon management are very optimistic that gold prices will continue to rise," said Ian Walton, Aurizon's CFO. "However, it is prudent for us to protect any potential downside in the price of gold from unforeseen market forces. The program that we have implemented provides protection that future operating cash flows are available to service the project debt, should gold prices decline, without giving away the Company's participation in the upside potential for gold and the Project."
Casa Berardi continues to progress on budget, on schedule and to design specification. The production shaft at the West Mine is currently at a depth of 500 metres and the ramp has reached the 690 metre level. On surface, the headframe, hoist room and associated infrastructures are complete, while major components of the mill refurbishing and modifications are in progress. More than 300 people are currently active on site. The project is currently expected to produce 1,092,000 ounces from 4.8 million tonnes of ore over the initial 6.2 year operating plan, based on current mineral reserves. Additional resources comprise 2.7 million tonnes of indicated resources with an average grade of 5.1 grams of gold per tonne and 5.6 million tonnes of inferred resources averaging 6.5 grams of gold per tonne. Drilling activities are on-going with three underground drill rigs and four surface drill rigs currently in operation.
Commercial production at Casa Berardi is expected to commence in the fourth quarter of this year at an average rate of 175,000 ounces of gold per annum. At a gold price of US$550 per ounce, and an exchange rate of 1.15, the project would have an estimated total cash cost of US$240 per ounce, an internal rate of return of 47% and an estimated payback of approximately 2 years.

Recent news today was:

Aurizon Reports High Grade Mineralization in Zones 118-120 at Casa Berardi
Got featured in an article in Businessweek:
http://yahoo.businessweek.com/investor/content/apr2006/pi20060419_788915.htm

[hermanpu]

GNBT
GENEREX BIOTECHNOLOGY CORPORATION

I am speculating on 2 main products that Generex offers. They have created an inhaler-like medication for diabetes called Ora-lyn. Their patented delivery system called RapidMist can also be used for other medications to deliver drugs through the buccol linings of the mouth. Generex also has a synthetic protein vaccine which it can mass produce incase of a bird flu outbreak. Generex has been as high as 5$ a share recently and I believe it has hit its bottom now at approximately $2.50
The stock has great potential short term and long term.

[eliteG]

I added GV to both the 3StocksOnFire and 3StocksOnValue portfolio.  These portfolio's and this trade plan is an example of what is available in the premium section.  Our members bought in on 4/20. 

--------------------------
Growth, Value, Power Chart: GV
« on: April 19, 2006, 11:45:09 PM »

GV(amex) - Goldfield Corp.

Sector:    Industrial Goods
Industry:    Heavy Construction
Mkt Cap:       35.34M
Float:            23.53M

Profile:  The Goldfield Corporation provides electrical construction and maintenance services in the energy infrastructure industry in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Its principal lines of business include electrical construction and real estate development. It constructs transmission lines, distribution systems and substations, and other electrical installation services for utility systems, and industrial and specialty projects. The company also installs fiber optic cable for fiber optic cable manufacturers, telecommunication companies, and electric utilities. It also engages in the development of residential condominium projects on the east coast of Central Florida. The company was incorporated in 1906 and is based in Melbourne, Florida.

website: http://www.goldfieldcorp.com/

News and Fundamentals

Goldfield just released amazing results on for its 4th quarter and full year 2005:
Links:
Goldfield Swings to 4Q Profit on Sales
Goldfield Records Strong Results for 2005

----------------
MELBOURNE, Fla., March 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Goldfield Corporation (Amex: GV - News), a leading provider of electrical construction services in the southeastern United States and a developer of condominiums, today announced strong results for the year ended December 31, 2005:

    - Revenue increased 20.4% to $39.3 million from $32.7 million in 2004.
    - Operating income increased to $4.0 million from a $0.5 million loss in
      2004.
    - Net income rose to $2.3 million ($.09 per share) from a $0.4 million
      loss ($.01 loss per share) in 2004.

Results for the fourth quarter of 2005 mirrored the markedly improved yearly results. For the quarter ended December 31, 2005 (compared to like period in 2004):

    - Revenue increased 85% to $10.4 million from $5.6 million.
    - Net income reached $0.9 million ($.03 per share) from a $0.7 million
      loss ($.03 loss per share).
-------------

Crazy! GV has more revenue this year than mkt cap and is growing strong.  This makes GV an amazing value!!  Annualizing the quarter eps gives GV a forward PE of 11.5 not accounting for any growth.  There is even more!  Growth is backed up by a backlog of over 40million!

Looking ahead to 2006, Mr. Sottile commented, "We start 2006 on a very solid footing. At January 31, our electrical construction backlog had increased over four-fold to $24 million from $5.8 million at the same point in 2005 and our real estate segment's backlog had almost doubled to approximately $16.9 million from $8.4 million at the same point last year. The first phase of our new Pineapple House project is now under construction, with binding sales contracts for approximately two-thirds of the units. We expect to start recognizing revenue from this project during the first quarter of this year."
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060327/nym042.html?.v=39

Technicals

A stock with this kind of fundamentals.. and superb technicals.    Notice on the Long-term chart  what a solid company we are dealing with.  How can we tell this from the chart?  Notice how there is a consistent rise and support with increasing volume on the 10yr chart.  Only really great management can pull that off.  Investors who are holding this stock must be in love.  (they bought in 1999 @ .20 and the stock is 1.38  )  These are investors who will not sell their position.

Long


Medium


Short



Trade Plan

We are buying this stock for both the 3SOF and 3SOV portfolio.  Therefore, we will trade the positions in a different manner.  The 3SOF method will be a much stricter technical method.  The 3SOV method will try to maintain a position until true value is attained through looser stops.

We have a breakout on GV and it will most likely attack the 52-week high soon.  We will place our initial stop around 15-20% away and will look to make a great return.  This stock is set to explode as soon as the word gets out.. right now it is definately a hidden wonder.

We will buy GV @ limit 1.50 on 4/20

[fous]

Pick: TGC

Logic:Im picking TGC for both fundamental and Technical reasons. Recently TGC broke out of a cup and handle formation jumping around 60% on the breakout and is now in a consolidation of that initial breakout which has formed a symmetrical triangle in which i am anticipating an upside breakout of.

Fundamently the stock is bullish, Recently reported record earnings and became profitable for the year 05.

For 2005, the Company reported a net income to holders of common
stock of $1,088,028 or $0.02 per share in 2005 compared to a net loss
of $1,994,025 ($0.05 per share) in 2004 and to a net loss of
$3,451,580 ($0.29 per share) in 2003.

I like this company and the Technical setup making it a decent pick for the contest. Good luck to all contestents. 

Chart:

[echo]

My pick: OTD

Reason: This is a very volatile stock that has come off recent highs. It very well could head lower here, but this is a hot sector (biofuels) and any news could send it skyrocketing. This is the kind of pick that could win the contest if it takes off. I could end up in last or first place. We shall see.

Chart:

[la-onda]

My pick:
YMI
Profile:
YM BioSciences, Inc., a development stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research and development of products primarily for the treatment of cancer. Its product candidates in the clinical stage of development include Tesmilifene, Nimotuzumab, AeroLEF, Norelin, and Radiotheracim. Tesmilifene, which is in phase III clinical trial, is a small molecule chemopotentiator for the treatment of metastatic and recurrent breast cancer. Nimotuzumab, which is in phase II clinical trial, is an antiepidermal growth factor humanized monoclonal antibody for the treatment of epithelial cancers. AeroLEF, which is in phase II clinical trials, is a proprietary formulation of both free and liposome-encapsulated fentanyl administered by pulmonary inhalation, is being developed for the treatment of severe and moderate acute pain and cancer pain. Norelin is a phase II clinical trial product for the treatment of sex-hormone dependent cancers. Radiotheracim is a radiolabelled humanized monoclonal antibody, targeting the epidermal growth factor receptor, and is being developed for the treatment of brain cancers. The company also has a portfolio of preclinical compounds shown to act as chemopotentiators while protecting normal cells. YM BioSciences has a collaborative agreement with Sanofi-Aventis to investigate the effect of combining tesmilifene and docetaxel for the treatment of women with rapidly progressing metastatic breast cancer.

Company presentation:
http://www.ymbiosciences.com/downloads/corporate_presentation.pdf

Product List:
http://www.ymbiosciences.com/main.cfm?docID=16
Latest news:
YM BioSciences is set to acquire Eximias Pharmaceutical Corporation, a privately-held firm focused on treatments of cancer and cancer-related disorders, in a cash and stock deal worth more that $30 million. The acquisition is designed to amplify YM's critical mass, specifically in its management team and cash resources. It will allow YM to expand capabilities for the development and commercialization of the products currently in clinical development and to establish a presence in the US, particularly within the oncology and financial communities. There is no intention to further develop the products in the Eximias portfolio at this time.
YM will purchase Eximias for a number of common shares equivalent to the cash resources of Eximias at closing, or approximately 4.5 million shares at the minimum, as well as a premium of approximately 450,000 shares in recognition of the value of the organization.
The definitive agreement has been approved by the boards of directors of both companies and by the stockholders of Eximias. Approval by YM shareholders is not required.
The transaction is expected to close in early May, subject to the satisfaction of certain closing conditions, at which time Eximias will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of YM operating as YM BioSciences USA, and will serve as YM's base of operations in the US.

Analysts:
YMI: AG Edwards Starts @ Buy; Sets Tgt @ $15; Analyst Notes
Tuesday , April 04, 2006 08:25 ET
Issuer: YM Biosciences, Inc. (AMEX: YMI)
Analyst Firm:  A.G. Edwards Inc.
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $15.00
Analyst Comments: The firm sees YMI as having high quality "shots-on-goal" with three of its drugs.
&
YMI: RBC Capital Starts @ Outperform
Monday , April 17, 2006 09:41 ET
Issuer: YM Biosciences, Inc. (AMEX: YMI)
Analyst Firm:  RBC Capital Markets
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Outperform

Chart:

[jeff46902]

Stock pick: Sonic Foundry (SOFO)

Reason: This is purely a technical play.  The stock had a volume spike about a month ago, and has been trading with above-average volume ever since.  All the key indicators are pointing up as well (MACD, DMI, Chakin Money Flow, etc).  The stock price has been trending upward nicely between the upper Bollinger Band and the 13-day exponential moving average. 

[usedcasting]

1) SGTL (SigmaTel Inc.)

2) Semi-conductor Ind.
I know I'm bottom feeding here but what the heck. The company is cheap with a p/e of 9.45. Last earnings beat analyst estimates but current earnings have been forecast lower. Earnings come out on tuesday and volume yesterday was almost 4x the norm. They just got above the 13 ema yesterday as well. Today and monday will be interesting because they are 6 cents away from a dollar gap up.

3)

[nica33]

1.  WEL - Boots & Coots International Well Control Inc.

Boots & Coots International Well Control, Inc. and its subsidiaries provide oilfield services worldwide. It provides various integrated oilfield services for the prevention, emergency response, and restoration of blowouts and well fires. The company operates through two segments: Prevention and Response.

2. This a technical descision.  Since january WEL has been recovering with price going up with great volume forming an ascending triangle and trading in its highest level in 3 years.  The weekly MACD looks positive and in a daily basis the stock has been in consolidation for 4 days forming a little pennant with resistance in 2.50.  The earnings are due on may 10. So I'm giving a boost of confidence to this one.

3. Chart

[birdmsu]

AxonyX Inc (AXYX)

Axonyx, Inc. is a U.S. biotechnology company that discovers, develops, and acquires proprietary pharmaceutical compounds and new technologies. The Company's compounds and technologies are used to treat cognitive disorders, including Alzheimer's Disease. The stock has been creating a buzz with its recent conference presentations. Also released a pr reporting data suggesting that the company's Phenserine product helps stabilize brain volume, increase neuron activity, and ups brain glucose metabolism.

[Gu$tavo]

Swir  Sierra Wireless Inc (NASDAQ NM)   

This well know CO have been trading in a range betwen [7.5 - 15] for a year and a half.
Today was a STAR on earning reports. with huge vol (15.5 M) was up + 30%

I will look for a gain of 25 - 50 % in a month with this one

[cache00]

1) CPST - Capstone Turbine Corp.

2) Capstone Turbine Corporation develops, manufactures, markets and services microturbine technology solutions for use in stationary distributed power generation applications, such as cogeneration (combined heat and power and combined cooling heat and power), resource recovery, power reliability and remote power.

With energy prices on the rise hitting record levels the need for alternative energy has become unavoidable worldwide. I believe Capstone is just at the early stages of a very lucrative business, the demand for its products is starting to reflect on its revenue increase.

A study report posted 6 years ago states that the demand for microturbines would grow substantially with sales ranging from $2.4 to $8 billion in this decade. That only makes me believe that sales are about to accelerate.

http://www.american.edu/carmel/rd4222a/energy4.html

This great article that appeared on the Distributed Energy's magazine back in December, 2004, says:  "Microturbines—gas- or liquid-fuel-fired turbine-generator units with an electrical output between 30 and 500 kilowatts—are being used increasingly for 24/7 onsite power generation. And many areas of the world will very likely see a major increase in microturbine-based onsite power generation over the next five to 10 years."

http://www.distributedenergy.com/de_0411_microturbines.html


The company should also benefit from the energy bill signed by President Bush 8 months ago.

http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=cpst&script=410&layout=7&item_id=740622


Back in March 20, 2006, Capstone issued a press release announcing that its 30- and 65-kilowatt renewable energy systems were certified by Underwriters Laboratories. CEO John R. Tucker added: "this certification, President Bush's new initiative for grid-interconnected renewable resources and our newly released CR65 biogas-fueled energy system will be yet another major step for us and for the nation's future of clean, renewable energy".

Even though CPST looks to me more like a long time investment than a short term trade, I expect the stock to get a quick appreciation from the momentum currently seen across the sector.

I also like the fact that insiders keep buying the stock:

http://www.secform4.com/insider/showhistory.php?cik=cpst

3) Technically CPST is in a critical situation. The stock just retreated to $4.03 after being unable to break through $4.50 (resistance level), I see this as a good buying opportunity. The most immediate support level is set at $3.86 which could be tested this week. Overall the indicators remain bullish; however, as I said this will be a crucial week that should give us an idea of where the stock is heading, of course I am 100% bullish on CPST.

[Terliso]

I'll Change my Pick from QTWW to FUEL

1) Streicher Mobile Fueling Inc. (FUEL)


2) Reason behind this pick: Fundamental & Technical FUEL has increased their revenue year over year   http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060214/20060214006540.html?.v=1

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.
Chart pattern indicates a Strong Upward Trend.
Relative Strength is Bullish.
Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.
The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.

FUEL is forming a little Symmetrical Triangle as you can see on the first chart, we will find out on monday or tuesday if this thing will break on the upside.

According to Yahoo:
Market Cap is just 39.74M
Shares out: 9.81M
Float: 8.42M

Recommendation: Stock is a BUY

"Gimme me FUEL, Gimme Fire, Gimme that which I desire, Ooh!"


3) Charts:

[miris]

SATC : SatCon Technology Corp (NASDAQ NM)

SatCon Technology Corporation. The Group's principal activities are to develop enabling technologies for the emerging digital power marketplace that include UPS systems, distributed power generation and power quality markets. The Group operates through three segments: Applied Technology, Power Systems and Electronics. The products include power conversion systems, power electronics systems, digital control software, high performance motors and vibration test systems, hybrid microcircuits, RF components, thin film substrates and amplifiers. The Group manufactures power and energy management products that will convert, store and manage electricity for the businesses and consumers that require high-quality, uninterruptible power supply.

Its making a nice consolidation here to build a base and move much higher. still extremely undervalued with alternative energy like solar and wind and fuel cell technologies becoming more and more important.

With the testing and approval of five PowerGate AE-PV Series utility-grade PV inverter designs by the California Energy Commission, SatCon's range of inverters for commercial-scale photovoltaic projects has met the criteria of the State's incentive programs.