ATML - Sector: Technology - Industry: Semiconductors

[bebu]

Going in ATML @ 2.84 .
Intel should pushed this baby up tomorrow

[David Randolph]

Perhaps that's true. But volume doesn't show many people are taking on that rumor. I wish you a good trade and hope I'll buy this stock at an higher price, when we have strong momentum and volume backing the move.

(altough I believe this stock has a lot of bagholders in it, hard to take off - only with very strong fundamental reason I believe)

[David Randolph]

I believe we're at the final stages of the bull market that started on March 2003 and took the S&P 500 from a low of 780 to 1247 points. I don't know if it will take days or weeks or even months but there are several signs that a long term bear market could unfold again.

I've seen (or at least studied) many bull and bear markets since stock market history began and they all have pretty much the same behaviour when they come to an end. At the final stages of a bull market investors pick up the forgotten stocks, those that were left in the ground as others rose immensely.

Those stocks deserve their place in the sun too, but there's not much time now. So they will rise fast before everything falls appart and the general market starts trending down.

I'm not particularly interested on the specifics of each stock, since they are acting as a group and will continue to do so, based almost exclusively on mass behaviour.

You see, now everything's gone up, the energy bubble is now completely unfolding and getting to an end too, so big and small speculators as a mob will jump on these liquid and low priced stocks. I see 20 to 100% upside potential in each one of them in a few weeks time.

ATML fully qualifies, it is one of those abandoned angels. I will buy ATML for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio at today's open.

[shawFund]

For semi stocks, I am not sure if ATML is a good pick or not. But the downside risk is small ($2.00 is always its strong support).

I prefer to wait until semi stocks announced their 3rd qt earnings. That is in the middle or second half of October.

Other bottom-fishing garbage semi stocks are:

AMCC ($2.50)
BRCDE ($4.00) - at this price for 5 months.
VTSS ($1.68) new year low
TXCC ($1.50)
LTXX ($3.50)
KLIC  ($7.00)
...


I like AMD, SSTI, FLSH, SNDK, TRID, CAMD.

AMD may see at least $30 by year-end and double it in one year. Its technology is 2 years ahead of INTC and is taking INTC's market share every qt recently.

CAMD has its own unique semi products and no competitors in this fiend - put a lot of passive components into one chip (capacitors, inductors, resistors etc).

SSTI - NOR memory chip price firmed and inventory problem solved; FLASH CONTROLLER used in APPL iPod nano. $7-$8 by year end and $10 in one year.

[shawFund]

Another semi stock you may want to consider:

ACLS - high $9.25 and right now is just above year low.

It is profitable and may see $9 again by end of year.

[David Randolph]

Thanks for your input Shaw Fund, I appreciate it 

But I have to be honest with you. You're telling me something new saying ATML is a semiconductor stock. I didn't know that (well, I actually knew, but that wasn't a factor, at all, on my decision to buy). So, I'm not looking for semiconductor stocks, I'm looking for stocks that were market darlings of the bubble era and now were almost forgoten for the entire bull market that started in March 2003 (a medium term bull market inside a longer term bear market if you ask me).

ATML had an impressive session today, considering the general market weakness (which was expected, I'm quite bearish on the general market). The stock closed above the $2.19 resistance level. I will continue holding it for the short term, I believe in the next couple of weeks all my 4 low price/big volume stocks will advance in the face of a falling market.

It always happens this way when a bull market is near it's end, my reasoning for these trades is stock market history and mass behaviour.

[David Randolph]

A second close above $2.19 confirms the technical breakout. The technical target of the breakout is $2.43, so I think at least that is warranted for ATML.

I will continue holding the stock whatever happens today, I usually need some trading days to define a trading plan.

[David Randolph]

I really like the market action on ATML. I'll continue holding it, the technical target of the $2.19 resistance level is $2.43.

[David Randolph]

Friday was the fourth close above $2.19 for ATML, so the resistance is definitely broken. The technical target of that breakout is $2.43, and one has to believe on the target for as long as the  technical signal is still valid. It would turn not valid if ATML were to close below $2.19 again.

So here's my trading plan:

1) Sell with a profit at the $2.43 technical target.
2) Sell with a small loss if the stock is set to close below $2.19.

I know the profit potential isn't much, but hey, we've just entered a bear market.

[jb]

Did you officially sell this today David?

[David Randolph]

Did you officially sell this today David?

Yes, I always do what is previously planned. Sold ATML at $2.17 before the close, for a negligible 1.4% loss.

The planned stated:

So here's my trading plan:

1) Sell with a profit at the $2.43 technical target.
2) Sell with a small loss if the stock is set to close below $2.19.

The bear market is haunting nearly every group. ATML couldn't hold the selling pressure on the general market and the semiconductor group.

I was wrong on my analysis, took my small loss (the normal speculation risk). Now it is time to move on.

[Terliso]

Precisely @ 2.72 HOD, the gap has been closed... worth of waiting my friends  ..

[Terliso]

This is the weekly chart of ATML.. broke the descending trendline.
--changed my plan, i'm gonna hold ATML for now..but i'll tighten my trailing stop... see ya!

[Terliso]

Update the chart:

It could hit 4 again before runnning back down..

[Terliso]

CHART 2