IMOS

[la-onda]

up over 6$ again 

[Melf Elf]

up over 6$ again 

Oliver,

Yesterday was a Symmetrical Triangle breakout, at 5.92 (pattern in green).

If IMOS can take out the top of the current Symmetrical Triangle pattern (5.96-6.00), that would be a step in the right direction for the bulls, but given the bearish trend, I'd be concerned that the pattern might "morph" into a Bear Flag (a higher high, that fails).  To date, there have been three good opportunities to short IMOS since mid-May breakout failure.

If we create a trendline off the $6.00 high that is exactly parallel to the trendline connecting the lows (that's the thin, solid red line on the chart), it comes in today at 6.0588.  Yesterday's high was 6.05.

If IMOS fails right here, then takes out the lower trendline, it's a Bear Flag.

If IMOS can rally now and make the 6.56 Symmetrical Triangle target that is IN PLAY, that would be the first bullish action in the stock since the May breakdown, which would be a positive.

Good luck!

[la-onda]

Analyst Firm: Merriman Curhan Ford & Co.

Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Buy

Analyst Comments: Although sentiment surrounding the the PC space has been difficult over the last several months, the firm believes it is improving and that the valuation metrics surrounding ChipMOS have not yet reflected this. As investor sentiment around the end-markets improves and ChipMOS continues to post solid earnings as expected, they believe the stock could trade at more than 1.1x book value and 4.6x their out-year EPS estimate, which is a discount to the competition.

This rating information was reported by Merriman Curhan Ford & Co..

-- Sold Springdale Specialty Plastics, a blow molding facility for
    automotive chemical packaging, for $2.5 million, recording a gain
    of $785,000
-- Completed consolidation of liquid filling operations
-- Upgraded physical plant to increase capacity by 25%

[Melf Elf]

ChipMOS continues to post solid earnings as expected, they believe the stock could trade at more than 1.1x book value and 4.6x their out-year EPS estimate , which is a discount to the competition.

Oliver,

Thanks for that information.  Am I reading that correctly, that IMOS currently is trading at 4.6 times next year's estimate?  If so, I would think that IMOS sure could trade higher!

Technically, IMOS broke out above the Symmetrical Triangle in late August... 

...but, it broke below the Ascending Triangle last week. 

That isn't so bad, though, because the 5.36-5.41 lows of the Symmetrical Triangle held last week.  The low was 5.45.

Since the wicked decline off May earnings, IMOS has been forming a base over the summer.  Several patterns, as you can see, but overall, it's pretty much a Rectangle: Highs in the 6.20s - 6.30s; Lows in the 5.30s - 5.40s.

"The bigger the base, the better the breakout."

Whatever the news was that caused the big gap down last week, I like the fact that IMOS reversed and closed near the high of the day, on big volume.  Players stepped in, and bought the re-test of the 5.36-5.41 lows, then took it back toward the gap.

IMOS could have a nice move higher, if it can take out those highs in the 6.20s-6.30s.

[Melf Elf]

Oliver,

Bigger picture, IMOS broke below the channel on the weekly chart (pattern in blue), but it held the November, 2005 low, which was 5.35, and it's looking like it doesn't want to give it up, with last week's Bullish Doji Star Hammer, right at the bottom of the broken channel.   

It needs upside follow through, of course, to be bullish, and we wouldn't want to see the 5.35-5.36 lows get broken to the downside.

[Melf Elf]

Oliver,

Bigger picture, IMOS broke below the channel on the weekly chart (pattern in blue), but it held the November, 2005 low, which was 5.35, and it's looking like it doesn't want to give it up, with last week's Bullish Doji Star Hammer, right at the bottom of the broken channel. 

IMOS still is looking like it doesn't want to give it up.

Since the Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple) downside target of 5.54 got MADE, IMOS has been finding support at the top of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in green), so the upside target of from the August 29 breakout of that pattern, 6.56, has been back IN PLAY, as long as IMOS remains above it.

 

It needs upside follow through, of course, to be bullish, and we wouldn't want to see the 5.35-5.36 lows get broken to the downside.

Technically, the 34/55 RSIs have given THREE buy signal: September 27, October 4 and October 9, indicating, again, that it doesn't want to give it up to the downside.  There's a four month base established in the chart.  The Bears weren't able to do any serious damage on the September 26 gap down, and this consolidation at the top of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in green) is looking "good to go" on the upside.

Now all we need is for PRICE to move higher, to confirm that. 

I'll post the 34/55 RSI chart next.

[Melf Elf]

When an RSI comes into Bullish Synchronicity with its Fibonacci "shadow," in this case 34/55, then bounces higher, the high of the day in which Bullish Synchroncity occurred is the "buy pivot," meaning that if the stock trades one penny above that in the next session, a buy signal is issued at that price.

Naturally, there are no guarantees.  It's important to look at the overall chart, and at whatever other technicals that you like to use, in order to determine whether or not you want to take the buy signal.

In the recent time-frame, the 34/55 RSIs have issued THREE buy signals, listed on the chart.  The lows of 5.77...5.78...5.75 when the signals were issued "shouldn't" get taken out to the downside, especially on a closing basis.

[Melf Elf]

In the recent time-frame, the 34/55 RSIs have issued THREE buy signals, listed on the chart. 

Oliver,

Yesterday, the 34/55 RSIs issued a FOURTH buy signal at 5.93, a penny above Wednesday's buy pivot high of 5.92.

IMOS has been holding above the Symmetrical Triangle, closed at 6.00 yesterday, its best close since the September 28 gap down, and volume also was the best since September 28.

This stock really, really, really, really wants to rally.   

The problem that it's having, is that its right at the bottom of the broken Blue Channel on the weekly chart. 

The lows of 5.77...5.78...5.75 when the signals were issued "shouldn't" get taken out to the downside, especially on a closing basis.

Yeah, breaking back below the top of the Symmetrical Triangle wouldn't look so hot.

[Melf Elf]

The problem that it's having, is that is right at the bottom of the broken Blue Channel on the weekly chart. 

Here's an updated weekly chart, depicting that.

If IMOS can manage a close today of 5.94, or better, that will be a Bullish Engulfing pattern on the week, and would improve IMOS' chances of busting its way back into the channel.

[la-onda]

I have bought som March 2007 calls strike price @ 5 $

let´s see  what will happen in Q4....

[Melf Elf]

This stock really, really, really, really wants to rally.   

IMOS rallied today off the FOUR Buy signals, on 2 times average 100 Day volume.

[Se7en]

Looks like 6.20 and than the 200MA will be the first hurdles to overcome ...

[Melf Elf]

Looks like 6.20 and than the 200MA will be the first hurdles to overcome ...

Se7en,

Right.  IMOS needs to turn the corner higher, and take out the 6.31-6.33 highs of the September Ascending Triangle that broke to the downside, then get above the 200DMA, currently at 6.43. 

This isn't a real strong chart, as you suggest with the hurdles, but this 4-month base looks decent, and the technicals are looking good.  MACD ticked higher on Friday, from just below the zero line, and went up through the signal line.   It did the same thing in March, 2006.  There was some backing and filling for a couple of weeks after the signal in March, then a rally from 6.80 to 8.32.

The bottom of the channel (blue) on the weekly chart also is a challenge, as we've discussed, but the November, 2005 low of 5.35 held this July, at 5.36, and IMOS managed a close back inside the channel on Friday. 

[la-onda]

fyi:
Chipmos September Revenue Up 38.6 Percent
Tuesday October 17, 8:29 am ET
Chipmos September Revenue Up 5.3 Percent From August, Up 38.6 Percent From Last Year to $56.3M

NEW YORK (AP) -- ChipMos Technologies (Bermuda) Ltd., a provider of semiconductor testing and assembly services, said Tuesday its September revenue rose 5.3 percent sequentially $56.3 million. Year over year, sales are up 38.6 percent.

For the third quarter, revenue totaled $160.5 million, an increase of 11.3 percent from the second quarter and up 38.5 percent from the same period in 2005, the Taiwan-based company said.

cheers
O.

[la-onda]

IMOS update:
1)
ChipMOS projects 7% on-quarter revenue growth in 4Q
Ingrid Lee; Esther Lam, DigiTimes.com [Thursday 19 October 2006]

ChipMOS Technologies anticipates revenue growth of 7% sequentially this quarter, with gross margins staying flat, said company chief financial officer (CFO) S.K. Chen.
The company reported unaudited consolidated revenues of NT$5.31 billion (US$160.5 million) for the third quarter, up 11.3% on quarter and 38.5% on year. ChipMOS will host a conference call to discuss quarterly results of the third quarter on November 6.

According to Chen, ChipMOS continues improving its capacity utilization for LCD driver ICs and memory chips, being currently near to its peak levels. Since the company is focused on signing long-term contracts with customers, its capacity utilization trends are often one month ahead of industry players, he explained. Gross margins should further grow in the fourth quarter, although there is likely a space for average selling prices (ASPs) of DRAM backend production to be corrected, he added.
Chen also said LCD driver IC demand started rapidly warming up since late third quarter. Although ChipMOS met customer requests to reduce LCD driver IC packaging ASPs by 5% in the third quarter, the prices will likely remain stable in the fourth quarter, he noted. Regarding memory backend production, Chen said that driven by customer requests, ASP corrections are possible for DDR2 packaging in the fourth quarter. Market sources believe that DDR2 packaging ASPs may fall by 5-10% this quarter.
In related news, ChipMOS has inked a supply agreement with an unspecified US-based communication chip provider, with monthly orders of about US$100 million initially, said sources. Next year, the orders will likely grow to US$130-140 million in 2007. ChipMOS plans to expand its second plant at Tainan, so it should help the company to manage the orders, the sources added.

http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/NewsSearch.asp?DocID=00000000000000000000000000006371&query=CHIPMOS

2)
ChipMOS interested to partner with Hynix in China
EDN, October 20; Esther Lam, DigiTimes.com [Friday 20 October 2006]

ChipMOS Technologies said it has an interest to partner with Hynix Semiconductor on chip packaging and testing at the Korean DRAM maker's plant in Wuxi, China, said company chief financial officer (CFO) S.K. Chen as cited in a Chinese-language Economic Daily News (EDN) report.
Chen noted that Hynix, which had a 7.6% stake in Itest as of the end of June 2006, plans establishing a testing and packaging facility together with Itest, and the DRAM maker seeks for another partner to join the project, the paper noted.
Taiwan's Powertech Technology Incorporated (PTI) and Singapore's United Test and Assembly Center (UTAC) also expressed their interest to partner with Hynix in China, Chen said.

http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/NewsSearch.asp?DocID=PB000000000000000000000000001866&query=CHIPMOS


sound good IMO

Still invested with March 2007 5$ Calls