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** Never Break The Breakable **

Started by Terliso, May 30, 2006, 03:52:22 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Terliso

T3ML Collections
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7602.0

Charts Compilation
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3662.0

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I got some advice for the 3SOF community including myself...

If you can combine all these rules & strategy for picking stocks you can surely & continuously beat the Stock Market.

1) Money... Never lose your stake, Always reserve some cash just like the U.S Military reserving soldiers & ready for battle.
2) Money Management - Diversify your money
3) Technical Analysis
4) Fundamental Analysis
5) Bulls or Bears - Analyze the direction of the market, trade only at the right side of the market (Long or Short it does not matter as long as you make money.
6) Timing -- timing is very important for entering & exiting.     
7) Patience -- (Time is Time, Money is Money) --->NOT time is money...
8. Control your emotion - (Fear,Greed. Hope) emotion kicks in right after entering the trade. 
9) First loss, is the best loss - Learn how to cut your losses fast if you feel & found out that your trade is going against you.
10) Let the profit run, Don't let the profit turn into a loss
11) Always analyze your past trades -- never close the book
12) Passion in the market - without it, forget it
13) Most of all "LOVE" ----> don't ever forget our Creator up there ... ;)

Goodluck!!

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Quoted from the book "The Amazing life of Jesse Livermore"
 

The big money is made by "the sitting - not the thinking." Once a position is taken the hardest thing to do is to be patient and wait for the move to play out. The temptation is strong to take fast profit or cover your trade solely out of fear of losing the profit on a correction. This error has cost millions of speculators millions of dollars. Be sure you have a good clear reason to enter a trade and be sure you have a good clear reason to close your position. It is the big swing that makes the big money for you.

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When amateurs are being bearish of a stock the professionals are actually bullish & vice versa....
-- So, better trade with the professionals, they have bigger stake than yours --

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Even though how good your Money Management can be, you will be kick out from the market sooner than you know if your emotion is reckless....
Fight your emotion, because that is your worse enemy of trading the market.

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My short & Long strategy:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4940.0

1) When a stock broke the 50SMA in the downside/upside on the WEEKLY CHART (that's the safest time to short/long) the price will tend to go down/up even further... Most of the time this happens but not all the time.

2) If I want to catch a short/long position from the very top/bottom I use 5 or 9 (SMA) with a tight stop, it's better to use this on the weekly chart.

Moving averages are one of the most basic tools used by traders. If a stock is under many or all of the key moving averages (20-, 50-, 100-, 200- and 250-day moving averages), then that stock is probably headed lower - regardless of what the fundamentals look like. There's an old Wall Street saying that cautions, "Don't buy stocks, buy companies." Investors tend to buy companies, while traders tend to buy stocks. However, the very best investors soon realize that both components are required in order to achieve top results. Before you make an investment, it's worth a look to see if it's actually moving in the right direction, or if it's above most of its moving averages.

5 or 9 day - super volatile for daily chart but it's perfect to use on the weekly chart

20 day - provides a very volatile, choppy line. It isn't the most accurate, but is probably the most useful for short term traders.

30 day - similar to 20 day but provides a bit more certainty for the trend.

50 day - moving averages provide a much less volatile, smooth line. This can be used to detect somewhat longer term trends.

100 day - similar to the 50 day, it is less volatile, and one of the most widely used for long term trends.

200 day - even less volatile, more of a rolling chart or smooth line. It doesn't react to quick movements in the stock price therefore it is rarely used.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/traderskills.asp

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Other links & resources:
www.stockcharts.com
www.otcpro.com
www.barchart.com
www.stockfetcher.com
www.wikipedia.org
www.investopedia.com

Terliso

#1
Rule #6: Timing -- timing is very important for entering & exiting.

If you are a fundamental/long-term position trader you don't need this kind of stuff but if you are a Technical medium trader this is suits for you. ;)

Most of the time, every uptick or a downtick on weekly MACD Histogram indicates a change of a trend.
So watch out with this trend following system this one acts like a walking stick guide if you are a blind man.

I'm using this weekly MACD Histogram along with the....
01) 5 or 9SMA
02) MACD Lines - weekly MACD Hist. ticks down/up first (short or long position) then MACD Lines bearish or bullish crossover follows.
03) 50SMA
04) 200SMA, 200EMA
05) Trendline
06) Support & Resistance
07) Volume
08) Price Divergence
09) The Force Index
10) sometimes <---- other indicators like MFI, Accum/Dist & Wilder's DMI (ADX).

Uptick or a downtick on weekly MACD Histogram is just my first step to decide whether it is time to enter now or to exit now.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2532.new#new




GIGM & HOM charts:

Terliso

HOM Chart:

Terliso

#3
Rule #5: Bulls or Bears - Analyze the direction of the market, trade only at the right side of the market (Long or Short it does not matter as long as you make money.


Market Indices & Key Sectors:
$INDU - (Dow Jones Industrial Average)
$COMPQ - (Nasdaq Composite)
$NYA - (NYSE Composite Index)
$XAX - (Amex Composite)
$SPX - (S&P 500 Large Cap Index)
$NDX - (Nasdaq 100 shares) 
QQQQ - (Nasdaq 100 Shares)
$RUT - (Russel 200 Small Cap Index)

$WTIC - Oil
$SILVER - silver
$COPPER - copper
$GOLD - gold
$USD - (US Dollar Index (End of Day)

$BKX - (Bank Index)
$XBD - (Broker/Dealer Index)
$SOX - (Semiconductor Index)
$DRG - (Pharmaceutical Index)
$BTK - (Biotechnology Index)

http://www.sec.gov/answers/indices.htm
http://www.nasdaq.com/reference/IndexDescriptions.stm
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5900.0 <---- Elite G's

Terliso

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DJI) is one of several stock market indices created by Wall Street Journal editor and Dow Jones & Company founder Charles Dow. Dow compiled the index as a way to gauge the performance of the industrial component of America's stock markets. It is the oldest continuing U.S. market index.

Today, the average consists of 30 of the largest and most widely held public companies in the United States. The "industrial" portion of the name is largely historical—many of the 30 modern components have little to do with heavy industry. To compensate for the effects of stock splits and other adjustments, it is currently a weighted average, not the actual average of the prices of its component stocks.

Components
The individual components of the DJIA are occasionally changed as market conditions warrant. They are selected by the editors of The Wall Street Journal. When companies are replaced, the individual weightings are adjusted so that the value of the average is not directly affected by the change.

On November 1, 1999, Chevron, Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company, Sears Roebuck, and Union Carbide were removed from the DJIA and replaced by Intel, Microsoft, Home Depot, and SBC Communications. Intel and Microsoft became the first two companies traded on the NASDAQ exchange to be listed in the DJIA. On April 8, 2004, another change occurred as International Paper, AT&T, and Eastman Kodak were replaced with Pfizer, Verizon, and AIG. On December 1, 2005 AT&T's original T symbol returned to the DJIA as a result of the SBC Communications and AT&T merger.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average consists of the following 30 companies: (Current lists)

AA   ALCOA Inc.   (aluminum)
AIG   American International Group Inc.   (property & casualty insurance)
AXP   American Express Co.   (credit services)
BA   The Boeing Co.   (aerospace/defense)
C   Citigroup, Inc.   (money center banks)
CAT   Caterpillar, Inc.   (farm & construction equipment)
DD   E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co.   (chemicals)
DIS   The Walt Disney Co.   (entertainment)
GE   General Electric Co.   (conglomerates, media)
GM   General Motors Corporation   (auto manufacturers)
HD   Home Depot, Inc.   (home improvement stores)
HON   Honeywell International, Inc.   (conglomerates)
HPQ   Hewlett-Packard Co.   (diversified computer systems)
IBM   International Business Machines Corp.   (diversified computer systems)
INTC   Intel Corp.   (semiconductors)
JNJ   Johnsons & Johnsons Inc.   (consumer and health care products conglomerate)
JPM   JPMorgan Chase and Co.   (money center banks)
KO   Coca-Cola Co.   (beverages)
MCD   McDonald's Corp.   (restaurant franchise)
MMM   3M Co.   (conglomerate, "manufacturing")
MO   Altria Group, Inc.   (tobacco, foods)
MRK   Merck & Co., Inc.   (drug manufacturers)
MSFT   Microsoft Corp.   (software)
PFE   Pfizer, Inc.   (drug manufacturers)
PG   Procter & Gamble Co.   (consumer goods)
T   AT&T Inc.   (telecoms)
UTX   United Technologies Corp.   (conglomerates)
VZ   Verizon Communications   (telecoms)
WMT   Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.   (discount, variety stores)
XOM   Exxon Mobil Corp.   (major integrated oil & gas)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

Terliso

http://www.investopedia.com/university/movingaverage/movingaverage5.asp

Moving averages are one of the most basic tools used by traders. If a stock is under many or all of the key moving averages (20-, 50-, 100-, 200- and 250-day moving averages), then that stock is probably headed lower - regardless of what the fundamentals look like. There's an old Wall Street saying that cautions, "Don't buy stocks, buy companies." Investors tend to buy companies, while traders tend to buy stocks. However, the very best investors soon realize that both components are required in order to achieve top results. Before you make an investment, it's worth a look to see if it's actually moving in the right direction, or if it's above most of its moving averages.

5 or 9 day - super volatile for daily chart but it's perfect to use on the weekly chart

20 day - provides a very volatile, choppy line. It isn't the most accurate, but is probably the most useful for short term traders.

30 day - similar to 20 day but provides a bit more certainty for the trend.

50 day - moving averages provide a much less volatile, smooth line. This can be used to detect somewhat longer term trends.

100 day - similar to the 50 day, it is less volatile, and one of the most widely used for long term trends.

200 day - even less volatile, more of a rolling chart or smooth line. It doesn't react to quick movements in the stock price therefore it is rarely used.


The moving average is one of the most popular and easy to use tools available for technical analyst, and wannabees for that matter. By using an average of prices, moving averages smooth a data series and make it easier to spot trends. This can be especially helpful in volatile markets, it smoothes out any noise and gives you a strong trend for the stock price.

There are several different varieties and time spans that one can use moving averages for, this is subjective depending on who you talk to. I prefer the 50 or 100 day average, but short term traders look at the 20 day average much closer. I hope this has helped shed some light on the wide range of uses for moving average and that it will help you pick better performing stocks

--------------------------------------------------------------
Well, I prefer 5 or 9sma for the weekly chart.
50, 200sma & 200ema (for the daily chart & weekly chart)  ;) :D ;D

Terliso

     "There is nothing new on Wall Street or in stock speculation. What has happened in the past will happen again and again and again. This is because human nature does not change, and it is human emotion that always gets in the way of human intelligence. "Of this I am sure"

                                                                                                 Jesse Livermore,

Terliso

No matter how hard it is, sometimes there is always an easy way:

(If you misses the weekly chart 50sma or 9sma if you prefer)... I firmly believed when a stock that just broke above 200sma & 200ema (weekly chart) & if the 9sma follows through and crossed above those 2 moving averages on weekly chart with good volume, there is always a BIG chance that the stock will continue to rise in the medium term & possibly for long-term if the company recently reported a good earnings. The only thing that hard to do is to sit on your shares & to be patience... ;)

Rule #7 comes in:
7) Patience -- (Time is Time, Money is Money) --->NOT time is money...


Some example charts on this thread: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2605.new#new

CXTI, FRPT, GV, HOM, PTSC, USEY,
JAVO, BOOM, NTRI, EGY, JADE, CHDT,
VPHM, TGB, GIGM, BRVO, AERT, GLBL,
STKL, IHR, LBIX, OATS, FSII, MTMD, PMTR etc.,

Terliso

Rule #5:
5) Bulls or Bears - Analyze the direction of the market, trade only at the right side of the market (Long or Short it does not matter as long as you make money.


One way I analyze the Market:

To return bullish in the market, the price must close above the 50sma daily chart at least...


Be alert when every time the market crossed below from 50sma in the daily chart after a good run-up, for me that's always a call to be prepare, It's either the market will continue to go up or go down.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=6247.0

Terliso

Quote from: Terliso on July 15, 2006, 10:59:19 PM
One way I analyze the Market:

To return bullish in the market, the price must close above the 50sma daily chart at least...

Terliso

Not every gap up black candle is bearish:
If I caught a gap up black candle in the first run & just made a bullish cross signal in the daily chart & weekly chart, there is a possibility that stock can rise for days or weeks.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4177.30

Example: SIGA, CHINA, MCDTA, ALGN, MSI & a lot more....