The Game: Taking $3500 and some Risk to $15000

[dwest718]

Amount: $3500
Start: August 1st, 2006
End: January 1st, 2007
Strategy: "Week-trading"- holding stocks from several days to several weeks at a time; trying to ride a few momentum plays; bottom-fishing; playing retracements (goes along with bottom fishing).

I may add another $1000 to this "basket" and play some month to month fundamentals but currently it looks like I will use technical analysis alone to trade with $3500

I have decided to start over again with some money and set a new target.  I'd like to make nearly $15,000 by New Years.  5 months to make a lot of good picks.  I will have money freed up on August 1st but until then I will post my watch list, charts, and analysis dealing with the picks that I will make.  I have a few hundred dollars now I might put into the market but I'm considering waiting until the larger sum becomes available to me.  Hope this time it works out 

To everyone who reads this, please feel free to comment, ask questions, post charts, etc. dealing with the stocks I am watching or suggestions that you might have.  I am still fairly new to the stock market and could use all the help and suggestions I can get.  I still feel like I have a little bit of information to contribute so if you'd like to ask a question I'd be happy to answer... especially to elaborate on analysis I have already done.  I am not at home now so I cannot post my first round of picks/charts but when I get home tonight I will start a new post with a few stocks to watch and charts for the ones I like best.

Hopefully everyone can learn a little something from this experiment and we can all make a little money.  Sometimes I will even use the 3SOF stocks in my portfolio so if some of my picks look familiar, you'll probably be able to find them there.

For now, over and out 

[dwest718]

Alright... time to add a bit of information.

1) I will be trading stocks that range from $1-15 in price.  The only exceptions will be stocks that I have already analyzed as of now (eg. SWIR or NVTL) that I feel have value in my "portfolio" or stocks that move above $15 a share during the next 5-6 months.

2) I will probably not be trading pinks or OTCs because of my inexperience with those securities.  I would like to make a bit of money in stocks that I know before I lose it in pinks and OTCs 

3) Charts will be posted here periodically but more often than not I will link to topics in the stock picking forum where I have already posted my charts and analysis.

Again, I hope that you will leave your suggestions or questions here as this trading plan begins to unfold.

[dwest718]

The first step... identifying possible trading opportunities.

I have divided my lists into several categories... ST (short-term), MT (mid-term), LT (long-term), and ?

ST are stocks whose charts suggest that money needs to be put in almost immediately.  These stocks will have money put in them as soon as possible if I decide that is the route I want to pursue.  If the chart changes these stocks could drop to MT stocks.  At the beginning this list will probably be large but once a few trades have been made, I will try to keep the ST list to 5 stocks or less. Time Range: 1-4 days

MT are stocks whose charts suggest a slightly more cautious approach.  These are stocks that have developing patterns.  These stocks could turn into ST stocks or could drop off the list if the patterns/charts break down.  This list will be very long to begin with but stocks will move to ST or LT list or drop off the list altogether eventually. Time Range: 1-3 wks

LT are stocks whose charts suggest a pattern that needs a good bit of time to watch and decide on.  Usually these are stocks that will not be traded for at least 2 weeks but the potential for a good trade could arise.  More stocks will be on the MT list but the LT list could get fairly long too because of the potential for a chart to turn either positive or negative.  Time Range: 2 wks-2 mths

? are stocks that I have invested in that I am considering again and/or stocks that don't fit into any of the above categories.  These will usually be stocks that have no identifiable pattern.  Time Range: Indefinite

Currently the lists are:

ST:
ACSEF
AIRN
CAMD
CPWR

MT:
ASTSF
ASYT
ANDS
AXTI
BITS
BCGI
AMKR
SWIR
CYTO
CCOI
CNXT
CNCT
KRY
DDDC
DVAX
EFJI
EMIS

LT:
ARNA
ATEA
AVNX
AVII
BKHM
BWNG
CCUR
CRIS
DRTE
DTAS
DVSA
DRRX

?:
BGO
ANAD
CTLM
CAAS
CHDX
DSCO
DOVP
DYAX
ENCY

I have not done technical research for a long time so I am currently updating my lists as quickly as possible.  These lists will definitely be finalized by August 1st but several opportunities could be missed out on until then.

With the $300 I have available now I am considering putting money into:
SWIR, BCGI, ACSEF, AIRN, CNCT, or AMKR

[cumulina]

Sounds like a fun project.

I'll be following your progress.

Good luck to you.

[Stocky2000]

I have decided to start over again with some money and set a new target.  I'd like to make nearly $50,000 by New Years. 

a 50 000 gain is not realistic especially in this market..i would be happy with a 10 -20% gain till christmas (3sof has 10% so far this year; so you see it s not that easy)....and to make money you need money at least 30 000.-. not just 3000.-....commissions will eat up everything(my opinion). Good luck.

[AussieTrader]

Have to agree with Ket. Seen so many people start a thread called 'start with $x end with $y. All of them have fallen by the wayside.

$3,000 doesn't give you enough flexibility to absorb a couple of losses (which will happen), so you'll have to have a fair degree of luck to begin with and hit some decent winners. You'd be best off holding no more than 1 or 2 positions maximum (i.e. 100% in 1 stock or split 50:50 in 2). If you take too mnay positions you'll only amplify your loss potential and dilute your gain potential. That's just reality mathmatics based on what you have to play with.

Well good luck.

[dwest718]

Until I double my money I'll be holding no more than 3 stocks at a time... most likely 50-50 like you're suggesting Aussie.

Ket, commissions are only $7 a trade so I really don't think that's going to be an issue.

You can play this game when the market is in such bad shape and find plenty of opportunities.  There are going to be stocks that bounce 20-50% over a several day period and then be sold off again.  I know it'll take a good bit of luck... and is somewhat unrealistic... but that's how life and trading is sometimes 

And then there are times when you get very lucky and find a stock like BCGI... 75-80% in a day does wonders to increase your portfolio value... However, I have taken your suggestions and thought about them and have decided to change my goal.  $15000 by X-mas.

[rickjust]

hi,

good luck. trade on margin and you double your money. if you are going to risk it you may as well. hold only one stock. wait for a good penny stock. be patient . this can be done.
pull the trigger to lock in profit. don't wait for a stock to go higher.
the only thing i would say about your list of stocks  is it is too long, focus on just 2 or 3 volatile stocks and watch their action. jmo
good luck
maxi

[dwest718]

Right now looking at CNCT, AIRN, EMIS, and CYTO as serious possibilities.  Thought about getting into BCGI this morning and actually was about to put a limit in at 3.25 but got scared off when the price fell from 3.30 to 3.15 in about 10 minutes.  Now it's at 2.80 or so... so looks like I made the right decision 

CNCT and EMIS are looking very, very good.  I'll probably post charts and analysis tonight after close... possibly do the same for AIRN and CYTO.

Happy trading everyone 

[dwest718]

Updated Lists:

ST:
AIRN
CAMD
CPWR
DDDC
DVAX
DTAS

MT:
ASTSF
ASTY
ANDS
BITS
AMKR
CCOI
CNXT
CNCT
KRY
CYTO
SWIR
EFJI
EMIS
BKHM
CCUR
DRRX

LT:
ARNA
AVNX
BWNG
CRIS
DRTE
DVSA
AXTI

?:
BGO
CTLM
CAAS
CHDX
DSCO
ENCY
DOVP
AVII
BCGI

I plan to post charts and analysis for several stocks tonight.  DDDC, DTAS, and CNCT are the most likely suspects.  CYTO, EMIS, and AIRN are also looking very good right now.  BCGI had a tough day today and the chart is very questionable but could turn to gold in a heartbeat.

The lists above will be updated later tonight as I complete more research.

Pretty solid day in the market today 

EDIT: Here's the chart for DDDC.  I plan to link my analysis in "Stock Picking" later tonight.

[dwest718]

SWIR, CNCT, and AMKR are moving a little this morning.  DDDC continues upwards.  Can't decide between CNCT, DDDC, and AMKR.  Think CNCT will give a little back because of mixed news this morning and DDDC and AMKR are not quite strong enough yet to put money in.  If DDDC gets a bit of a push above 2 (next level of weak resistance) this afternoon, I will consider trading it.  I have also added BCON to my ? list because of its status as a new 3SOF.

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=6340.0

Link to post in Stock Picking for CNCT.  Here is the chart anyway.

[dwest718]

Bought 120 shares of DDDC @ 2.05.  Not much money in but not much risk either.  Contemplated AMKR, CNCT, or SWIR as well.  If DDDC can hold above 2.00 today, I'll be in good shape.  Even if it drops to 1.95 or so I'll be fine.  Stop on DDDC @ 1.82.  Already have 30 shares of SWIR @ 16.35 with a stop in place.  It was 15.17 at open on August 1st for purposes of this "portfolio."

Available cash: $28

Amount invested: $702
-120 DDDC @ 2.05 (Stop @ 1.82)
-30 SWIR @ 15.17 (Stop @ 15.20)

Unavailable cash: $3000
Total Amount: $3730

[akclide]

Market has thrown so many curve balls lately that it has become almost imposible to grow your portfolio from a seed to a tree.So I started a different strategy which seems to be working so far.I buy one stock with a sizeable start up, keep tight stops and carry the stops higher as the stock goes higher almost like a ratchet stop.Than at the end of the month pull out the  gains and start again.I find it easy to manage and a way to make supplimental income .I think I am going to stick with this plan as I have tried to turn 50000 into a million for the past 10 years, needless to say dream has a become nightmare a few times along the way.
Good Luck to you all

[dwest718]

akclide... thanks for the advice    I think I will see how this strategy works and if it doesn't then I will change to something similar to what you suggested.

I am editing some of the starting info to include a position I already have in my portfolio.  I will attempt to post charts and analysis for DDDC (and maybe for a few other stocks on my lists) tonight.

EDIT:  Here's the chart and a bit of analysis:

Positive:
-MACD cross and divergence
-RSI divergence
-Increasing volume
-Gap open and closed on top of short term resistance level today.
-Close near high of session

Negative:
-Closed just under a short term resistance level.

Neutral:
-Below 50dma
-Below 200dma

[AussieTrader]

Good luck Dwest.

As I said before I think your position size is going to work against you. Your investment in DDDC is $246, your round trip trade cost will be $14 or 5.7% of your trade size. So your position will have to achieve 5.7% gain to enable you to break even (around $2.17 I think). So you might be spot on in your timing and analysis, but at the same time your position size holds you back.

Anyway I hope it moves to $2.50 zone for you that would appear technically the place to take profits.