PHM

[Melf Elf]

Centex fundamental news brought down all the HBs big today .

nullz,

Yes, I was glad to see PHM come off the upper trendline for you. 

You've got a nice entry short near the top of the channel, so you're in great shape on a risk:reward basis.

Good job!  Applause.

[Melf Elf]

The Bullish Falling Wedge target of 34.22 MADE, just as the stock got to DOUBLE resistance at the top of the channel, and at the declining 200 DMA.

Yesterday, PHM put in a Bullish Doji Star hammer at the 50DMA, which also is the top of  Kumo (Cloud) support.  Additionally, the 34/55RSIs have returned to Bullish Synchronicity.

Yesterday's high of 31.49 is the buy pivot.  A print of 31.50 today is a 34/55RSI Buy Signal. 

[Melf Elf]

Bought PHM at 30.92.  Stop: A close below 30.15.  Risk: a loss of 2.5%

[Melf Elf]

Yesterday's high of 31.49 is the buy pivot.  A print of 31.50 today is a 34/55RSI Buy Signal. 

There's the 31.50 Buy Signal. 

I'd like to see yesterday's low of 30.79 hold and a close of 31.67, or better, for a Bullish Morning Star at the 50DMA.

EDIT: Sorry, I forgot the chart. 

[Melf Elf]

There's the 31.50 Buy Signal. 

PHM closed above the 31.50 Buy Signal.

I'd like to see yesterday's low of 30.79 hold and a close of 31.67 , or better, for a Bullish Morning Star at the 50DMA.

The 31.76 close is good for a Bullish Morning Star off the 50 DMA.

I'm raising my stop to 30.78, a penny below yesterday's low (which is the low of the Bullsih Morning Star). 

Risk on the trade now is reduced to a loss of about a ½%.

[nullzero]

PHM 3rd quarter results are in they came in below expectations. Lets see how this trades tomorrow. Im still holding my short position up roughly 5%.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061025/earns_pulte_homes.html?.v=3

[Melf Elf]

PHM 3rd quarter results are in they came in below expectations. Lets see how this trades tomorrow.

nullz,

Thanks for that news.  Applause.

Im still holding my short position up roughly 5%.

I'm still holding my long position up roughly 4%.

Recently, housing stocks have rallied like yesterday, or at least held up, on bad news.

"It isn't the news that matters...it's the reaction to news that matters."

Trading Strategy:

If PHM gaps down below the Bullish Morning Star low of 30.79 (or trades below that at any time), I will sell at the market, no questions asked.

I would do that anyway, but in this particular case, that kind of gap down would suggest that PHM put in a H&S Top here, and a target of 27.00 would be IN PLAY.  Math is on the chart.

If that should eventuate, I also would look to reverse and go short near 30.79-30.86, the Bullish Morning Star low and the broken neckline, respectively.  Stop: a penny above yesterday's 32.76 high.

Good luck!

[Melf Elf]

[Recently, housing stocks have rallied like yesterday, or at least held up, on bad news.

"It isn't the news that matters...it's the reaction to news that matters."

VERY Bullish Reaction to the bad earnings news:

1. Gap down to 31.99, then made a low at 31.61.

2. Printed 32.00, above the gap down opening, indicating strength.

3. Turned green on the day

4. Went up and printed a penny below yesterday's high, despite the earnings disappointment

If the Bulls change their minds today, however, and take out this morning's 31.61 low, I would view that as very wimpy, and at least a short-term "vote of no confidence."  I'll sell, and take a 2% gain.

[Melf Elf]

Sold at 31.93 on the break of the Bear Flag, which also is the Right Shoulder of a H&S Top on the Minute chart.  Gain: 3.3%

If the Bulls change their minds today, however, and take out this morning's 31.61 low, I would view that as very wimpy, and at least a short-term "vote of no confidence."  I'll sell, and take a 2% gain.

Bulls ended up wimping. 

[Melf Elf]

Bulls ended up wimping. 

The Bulls wimped in the very short-term...they've brought it back to UNCH. 

Good performance, on the disappointing earnings. 

[Melf Elf]

The Bulls wimped in the very short-term...they've brought it back to UNCH. 

nullz,

Man, they got me gooood on that minor blip below 31.61, to 31.50.

The Bulls came roaring back.

Curses!     

Frustrating.  My impatience is one of my demons, and I got punished for it today. 

It's a demon because, more often than not, I get rewarded for selling breaks of support, and for NOT "hanging on," and " hoping" that the market will bail me out of a bad situation.

Not today.  I got bested.      

Oh, well....  A 3.3% gain still is a gain.

Sigh.

It ain't easy, is it?   

Good luck with your trade, my friend.

[nullzero]

Yeah im all short right now last week or so. Shorting ERTS, AEOS, ANF, PHM, GS. Im up on PHM slightly down on the rest 1-6%  . This crazy market is going to turn sometime maybe after the elections who knows. I played the market up on in the last 3 months but didnt reap the rewards enough hehe.

[Melf Elf]

nullz,

You might get some help from Cramer today.   

Pulte Sees Stability

Cramer welcomed Pulte Homes (PHM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) CEO Richard Dugas to the show and asked him if only the homebuilder's low-end homes were moving well.

"No, we're having a slowdown across the board," Dugas responded.

When Cramer asked if he sees any areas that have bottomed," Dugas said, "I wouldn't call it a bottom yet."

"We have seen signs of stabilization," Dugas went on to say. "As an example, our cancellation rate was steady for the entire three months of the quarter, which is a positive trend."

"We are hopeful that certain markets have bottomed, but cannot call it for certain yet," Dugas said.

Because there's been a very big run in the homebuilder, Cramer advised viewers to "take a little off the table."
   
   

[nullzero]

Yeah PHM is taking a hit its around 31.90s now. Looks like you made a good move selling at 31.93 PHM wants to move lower from what it looks like.

[Melf Elf]

Sold at 31.93 on the break of the Bear Flag, which also is the Right Shoulder of a H&S Top on the Minute chart.  Gain: 3.3%

nullz,

Selling there turned out alright.  I would have been stopped out today for a loss.  The " Bullish Morning Star" low of 30.79  got taken out this afternoon. 

I would do that anyway, but in this particular case, that kind of gap down would suggest that PHM put in a H&S Top here, and a target of 27.00 would be IN PLAY. Math is on the chart.

At earnings, PHM failed by a penny to take out 32.76, the high of the Right Shoulder, then this afternoon, took out the Bullish Morning Star low of 30.79, and on the  print below 30.94775, it also took out the neckline, which is the data point for today. 

Today's low is 30.71. 

PHM has rallied back, slightly above the neckline break, currently BID 30.99...ASK 31.00

You're in nice shape here, nullz, as long as the 32.76 high of the Right Shoulder doesn't get taken out to the upside.

Good luck!