3SOF

AussieTrader · August 29, 2006, 11:43:13 AM

Looking for XOM to correct some over the near term. It has had a great run these past 2 months or so. Topping out at $70 zone, breaking the 9ema today which has been a huge backbone for the rally and testing the 20ema also. MACD histo has traced a negative divergance since early July (see chart).
Pretty safe trade all in all, stop set just above some key highs, target zone in the 50sma zone.
Good Trading

AussieTrader · August 31, 2006, 01:16:17 AM

Expect further pressure on XOM and more action and a close below $68 to come. Todays close below the 20ema is my sign to safely squeeze my buy to cover stop down below $70. A reversal to take that out would be very powerful and unlikely given the current action.

Melf Elf · August 31, 2006, 06:36:06 AM

Aussie,

Nice analysis and plan. Applause.

AussieTrader · August 31, 2006, 09:12:54 PM

Thanks Melf, I like the MACD analysis cheers.

Another weak day for XOM which is good. My stop is very close to my entry point and so I have minimal risk on this position. I don't want to squeeze it any tighter right now and get stopped out on a spike.
Barring any unexpected news related reversal what I expect to happen over the coming sessions will be for XOM to steadily make its way down with the odd up days here and there but all the whils failing at the descending 9ema. Look how XOM perfectly stayed above the 9ema on its upward run from $58. Now picture that in reverse.
$67 could be a reversal test, after that 50sma is in play.

Melf Elf · September 01, 2006, 03:48:32 AM

Quote from: AussieTrader on August 31, 2006, 09:12:54 PM
Thanks Melf, I like the MACD analysis cheers.

Aussie,

XOM's MACD puts me in mind of the H&S Top in the 13/21RSIs at the May earnings top in GIGM (see chart below). That one resulted in a 40% drop in the stock.

Both GIGM and XOM put in a price top in the Right Shouder of the indicator's H&S Top, then both indicatiors broke the neckline to the downside quickly thereafter. I'll be interested to see how this plays out in XOM (the H&S Top in its MACD).

Quote
My stop is very close to my entry point and so I have minimal risk on this position. I don't want to squeeze it any tighter right now and get stopped out on a spike.

I like that.

Quote
$67 could be a reversal test, after that 50sma is in play.

Right. It looks like it's got some horizontal support there ($65-$66). Good luck!

AussieTrader · September 06, 2006, 01:00:33 AM

Watching to see if resistance is going to come into play.

AussieTrader · September 07, 2006, 10:13:40 PM

XOM still behaving according to plan.

AussieTrader · September 11, 2006, 09:35:19 AM

50 sma now in play, if it breaks then lots more downward pressure:

AussieTrader · September 12, 2006, 12:52:13 AM

Weak day for XOM along with oil and commodities. Moved through the 50sma nicely on big volume, starting to look like a return to the 200ma is shaping up. Adjusted my stop accordingly.

LuckyFish · September 12, 2006, 03:02:22 AM

Nice call Aussie! I hope there's more downside for you. I shorted PBR instead. Take a look at it. I think that you may like it too. I don't know much about TA, but there seems to be more room for PBR to move down more. Also ERF and OIH. (One of these days, I'll figure out how to attach charts!)
Brigitte

Melf Elf · September 12, 2006, 05:53:56 AM

Aussie,

Very nice analysis and strategy. Textbook trade. Applause. Thanks for the updates.

Quote from: Melf Elf on September 01, 2006, 03:48:32 AM
I'll be interested to see how this plays out in XOM (the H&S Top in its MACD).

That played out nicely.

This chart doesn't reflect yesterday's trading (I'm having a problem downloading the data), so MACD ought to be fairly close to the zero line by now.

Great job, and good luck. Looks like you've got a winner.

hawk · September 13, 2006, 06:24:55 PM

quite a good one!

AussieTrader · September 15, 2006, 04:40:53 AM

Moved Stop just above the 50sma. Watching for potential reversal from this consolidation around $65. It could break eitherway from the current pattern, most likely to the downside, but not guaranteed.
Stop where it is placed is safe, but my alternative exit is I will buy to cover if XOM closes above the 9ema.

AussieTrader · September 16, 2006, 04:13:16 AM

The best 'way to trade' is to be boring. When trading gets exciting emotions kick in and corrupt the plan. Stop moved between 50sma and 9ema, just above the tall red candle (in the gap basically). Will still exit manually with a close above 9ema.
This is a nice boring trade I have here

joet · September 17, 2006, 04:53:16 AM

Kudos, You nailed this one Aussie, great timing with the drop in Crude. Keep us posted on your ideas, boring is OK

Aplauded
Cheers Joe

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