AMD

[Ramsburg]

Profile: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of microprocessor solutions for the computing, communications, and consumer electronics markets worldwide. Its solutions include embedded microprocessors for personal connectivity devices and other consumer markets. The microprocessor products are used in desktop and mobile personal computers, servers and workstations, and chipset products.
Website: http://www.amd.com
Market Cap: 12.87B
Financial Trends:


Trading Idea:
We've been monitoring AMD for a while, the stock has been consolidating the August's rally, and just had a new breakout to the upside, breaking the mid term descending support. Momentum is high, and the next resistance level is near $30.

Chart:
 

Trading Plan:
We'll Buy AMD for the 3SOF Portfolio during the morning.

Regards,

[shawFund]

We have done a detailed analysis on AMD's current valuation.

It started to see INTC's fight back. But in server market, AMD is winning the fight for now and for the next 12-18 months.

We maintain the midterm target of $35 and may go higher. Midterm mean the end of this year.
There may have some dips in the process.

[fous]

I like AMD a lot as well and there products are killer and have been a fan for the past 5-6 years over intel.

Im in from 24.93 with a short term technical target of $30.

-fous

[Ramsburg]

Update:
Nice white candle, volume was good, momentum remains high, this pattern suggests continuation. The downside is limited by a support @ $25.90 and the $25.25 price zone. We'll wait for further developments.

Trading Plan:
Hold AMD
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $24.75)

[Ramsburg]

Update:
AMD is consolidating near the recent highs; taking in consideration the broad market sell off, this behaviour is quite good, showing some relative strength on AMD's shares. Current resistance is near $27.50 and supports can be found @ $26.50, $26 and $25.50, we expect AMD to hold above the supports and to keep moving to higher ground soon.

Trading Plan:
Hold AMD
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $24.75)

[Ramsburg]

Update:
No special developments here, AMD is still trading inside the short term consolidation range. We expect a breakout at any moment.

Trading Plan:
Hold AMD
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $24.75)

[berloga]

 Should we be concerned with the following statement based on the short- to mid-term nature of our 3SOF investment?
  Do you expect AMD can lose momentum because of this?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Merrill on AMD: Four Predictions and a Warning
Monday September 25, 9:01 am ET

Eric Savitz (Barron's) submits: Joe Osha, the semiconductor analyst at Merrill Lynch, on Friday morning offered four predictions on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, along with one warning about the stock. First, here come the predictions.

1.   AMD's share gain in server processors will continue unabated, with Intel's (NASDAQ: INTC - News) Woodcrest/Blackford product having only a minimal competitive impact...We think AMD could get close to 40% of the server processor business by the end of next year.
2.   AMD won't get past 15% of the mobile processor market in 2007...it's true that the company wants to release an optimized mobile architecture next year...[however] that product isn't coming until the fourth quarter of next year, which is too late to have much of an impact on 2007 numbers...No doubt we'll see some product annoucement from PC OEMS, including Dell (DELL), but we'll expect those to be mostly large form-factor desktop replacement products.
3.   Dell will give AMD less business than the bulls hope for the near term, but more than even the biggest bulls hope for over the the long term...We stand by our prediction that AMD will see between 1.5 millionand 2 million untis at Dell between now and the end of the year, but no more...The math over the long term is a lot more interesting. There's no reason that AMD can't have 30% of Dell's business overall by 2008, which suggests annual volume of 14 to 15 million units.
4.   AMD will allow ATI's discrete GPU [graphics processor] business to slowly die on the vine, although management will never be willing to admit it...the company's long-term strategy is clear enough. AMD wants to be able to engage Intel across the market, including the enterprise business, and that means being able to offer the same kind of stable platforms to PC OEMs that Intel has managed. That can't be done with third-party chipset vendors.
Which brings us to Osha's warning.
From an investment standpoint, AMD may well make sense over the long term, and we really do think that the company will tend to gain share against Intel in all three PC market segments over the long term. From [a] valuation and earnings momentum standpoint, however, the stock does not make sense.
He thinks Street estimates are way too high.
Even if we continue to build the share gains we've discussed into out model, we can only get to $1.02 in GAAP earnings for next year, or $1.18 excluding stock options expensing. The Street is showing $1.34 in pro-forma earnings, which would seem to reflect a continuation of the dramatic market share improvements that AMd registered in 2006. Based on Intel's improved roadmap that's unlikely to happen again in 2007, at least in desktop and notebook markets. Also to be noted is the impending closure of the ATI acquisition, which will almost certainly be dilutive in 2007 even if we don't build in much market share loss to AMD in discrete GPU. Our preliminary work shows 89 cents in GAAP earnings for the combined entity, and we regard that as generous. Long-term share gains should keep the stock from declining much, but the 2007 picture makes it very hard to see how investors can make much money on the stock during the next 12 months.
AMD shares closed down 77 cents at $26.21 on Friday.

[Ramsburg]

Hi Berloga,
I don't like to make big judgements on this kind of reports coming from Merril... The stock is not showing much strength with this market, so in a word: yes, we are a bit concerned

Update:
AMD broke its ascending support, but is still trading above the previous trading range ($25.75), the short term outlook is not nice right now... We'll give some room here (to $24.75), and wait for developments in price.

Trading Plan:
Hold AMD
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $24.75 in case the stock closes below this reference)

[422fwhp]

My very amature $.02....eye-balling the chart...

AMD is a great company (just bought dual-core 4200+) and is doing great, imo.  When I was looking to build my new computer, everyone told me to go with the AMD dual core.  I researched it and indeed found it to be a better overall choice for my needs.

I'm sure there will be a "shake-out" at some point....maybe it'll check the 50dma/reset MACD in a couple of days.  $24?

I've been stopped out on 2 memorable occasions (ELN & XING) only to watch them double or more weeks later...tech is in rally-mode and AMD is going down with increasing volume right now...cause for concern?  IMO, not really...checking the 50dma is a good healthy thing for a stock to do before the "golden cross" (50/200dma cross).  You never know with mother market.

Please forgive the ramble as this is the first vacation I've been on in a while and these TWO beers got me a leanin' a bit.   

GLTA...Jody

[Ramsburg]

Please forgive the ramble as this is the first vacation I've been on in a while and these TWO beers got me a leanin' a bit.   

GLTA...Jody

cheers Jody
I'm not very positive on AMD right now... lets see...

Update:
More bad news for AMD:
• Judge Dismisses Key Part of AMD Lawsuit
• Intel-AMD antitrust trial set for 2009

The technical pattern is also becoming weaker, with AMD closing below the latest trading range and almost invalidating the recent breakout.
I really enjoy AMD, but I'm not sure we'll be able to hold it short term... The stock should go down today, hopefully it could be a short term bottom because of the bad news, but due to money management strategies, we can't give much more room now.
We'll be changing our suggested stop price into an automatic stop price @ $24.50 and that will be the end of the rope for us.

Trading Plan:
Hold AMD with a stop @ $24.50

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Update:
Some good news helped AMD not to drop more on today's session:
• AMD signs deal to sell chips to No.2 China PC maker (after the bell)
• Advanced Micro upgraded by Caris & Company
• (and more)

AMD was able to hold above the projected line (support, ex-resistance), and our stop at $24.50 was not triggered. The short term pattern remains ugly, but we are willing to keep the stop at the same level and wait for developments.

Trading Plan:
Hold AMD with a stop @ $24.50

Regards,

[Mylo]

AMD is breaking out again. This time the breakout is upward. There is also a pullback so now would be the time to buy!

[LiveLife]

AMD has been falling since February of 2006 with a rebound effort in Jul-Sep 2006.

AMD is on the rebound again with INTC showing signs of life. 

Could $13 be the bottom for AMD?

I have traded AMD several times before and if a new bottom has been established, AMD may have some gaining room.

- Ramsburg/setravis, I did a search before posting but AMD threads are already in the "Previous" threads.  If AMD continues the rebound, could you bring the AMD thread back to "Current" threads?

[bioneer]

Technically, keep AMD on watch for a rebound.  3-month Fibonacci retracement to 50% indicates that profit-taking from the recent run-up may be done.  RSI slightly under 50 favors buying conditions.  Watch for consolidating at 14.25 maintaining the 50-day MA and confirmation of an uptrending MACD.

[Mylo]

Breakout!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=amd