TLAB

[Ramsburg]

Profile: Tellabs, Inc. engages in the design and marketing of equipment to telecommunications services providers worldwide. Its products and services provide solutions to deliver wire line services, wireless services, and broadband data networking for business and residential customers, and bundled voice, video and high-speed Internet/data services. The company's products include transport systems that enable service providers to manage bandwidth; access products, which enable service providers to deliver the triple play of bundled voice, video, and high-speed Internet/data services over fiber-based networks; managed access systems; broadband data systems; and voice-quality enhancement systems that enable service providers to improve voice quality in wireless, long distance, and private communications networks.
Website: http://www.tellabs.com
Market Cap: 4.52B
Financial Trends:


Trading Idea:
In August TLAB made what seems to be a double bottom pattern over the long term ascending support, after that a first positive reaction took place, breaking out a resistance and filling July's Gap. Yesterday TLAB finally wake up and started to move up with strong volume.

Short Term Chart:


Long Term Chart:


We expect to see TLAB breaking the $10.70 resistance soon, and with the right market conditions the potential is to see it retesting the mid term descending resistance near $13. The downside is limited by an ascending support at $9.40 and the «floor» at $8.90, this give us an interesting setup to trade TLAB now.

Trading Plan:
We'll Buy TLAB today in morning.

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Update:
Nice price development today, with TLAB trading above the last relative high and increasing volume. The $10.70 level may represent some resistance and could even generate some consolidation, but momentum is strong and TLAB maybe ready for a breakout.
We'll wait for further action...

Trading Plan:
Hold TLAB
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $9.30)

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Update:
TLAB was able to cross the $10.70 resistance level, this is an important breakout from a technical point of view. A consolidation may occur but the overall setup is now very interesting

Trading Plan:
Hold TLAB
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $9.30)

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Update:
TLAB had a negative reaction after breaking out the $10.70 resistance, and closed below that price reference. Probably the stock need to consolidate a bit before it is able to move forward.

Trading Plan:
Hold TLAB
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $9.30)

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Update:
We are looking into TLAB as a reversal play, consecutive higher lows and higher highs for short term along with volume picks make this an attractive chart pattern.
We expect TLAB to break the $10.67 resistance soon.

Trading Plan:
Hold TLAB
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $9.30)

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

This time the breakout looks serious... TLAB trading above $11 right now

[Ramsburg]

Update:
After the first «fake» breakout and some quick consolidation, yesterday TLAB showed its real intentions
Yesterday's breakout looks legit, bringing some interesting setup to the play; we may now look to the descending resistance at $12.75 as a potential target for this swing. $10.67 should now act as a support level in case of short term consolidation.

Trading Plan:
Hold TLAB
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $10.50)

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Update:
Fake breakout / consolidation / Real breakout / consolidation / confirmation
This is what TLAB has done so far since we bought it for the 3SOF portfolio...
Yesterday's session was a strong technical confirmation of this upside swing, so we are expecting some continuation now.

Trading Plan:
Hold TLAB
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $10.50)

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Update:
$11.50 has been acting as a short term resistance and top of a small consolidation / trading range. We expect TLAB to hold above $10.50 and to bounce into new short term highs at any time soon.
My personal target for this swing is something like $12.50 / $12.75, but this could be some Bump & Run reversal bottom setup (very bullish) still on a early stage of pattern development, with the right price development, we may end up holding TLAB a bit longer than the initial plan (the important is to see it above $10.50 for now).

Trading Plan:
Hold TLAB
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $10.50)

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Update:
$10.50 acted perfectly as a support, and TLAB is moving up again.
I remain with strong expectations for this pick, $12.50 is my primary target, but we should keep this pattern as a «potential» Bump & Run Reversal Bottom (BARR) still in development (very bullish pattern).

Trading Plan:
Hold TLAB
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $10.50)

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Update:
TLAB is now developing some kind of short term triangulation; it needs to breakout the $11.44 resistance level to «boost» up this ascending move. The overall technical outlook is strong.

Trading Plan:
Hold TLAB
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $10.50)

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Update:
The last few sessions were weak for TLAB, which is now taking a bit more time to consolidate the $10.70 breakout than we were expecting.
Although, the main picture is still the same, and it remains bullish, we can expect this to be an ascending triangle pattern in development.

Trading Plan:
Hold TLAB
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $10.50)

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Update:
TLAB position is giving us some headaches... While the overall pattern is still bullish, and makes sense with our rebound expectations, this consolidation is taking too long to perform.
Yesterday TLAB traded a low of $10.52, just near our suggested stop, we kept this position on 3SOF, but we are on alert...   

Trading Plan:
Hold TLAB
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $10.50)

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

We are still holding, unless it trades below $10.50 near the end of the session we'll keep this position om 3SOF.

[Ramsburg]

Update:
TLAB keeps giving us headaches... And now we're facing a dilemma... The $10.50 area is working as a support, but not much below there is a more important support level, the $10.20 where is sitting the ascending support line right now. With current price action, and the recent weakness, TLAB can probably be heading to for a retest on that ascending line, unless we see some upside reaction soon.

Facing only a 5% paper profit, and having our suggested stop so near the ascending support line, we are taking the risk of being kicked out of this position just to watch it go up again in case of a positive reaction at $10.20.
So what we're doing right now, and since we have no intent to give intraday recommendations difficult to follow, is something I hate to do on any trading plan: we're downgrading the stop level... So we'll change our suggested stop price to an automatic stop price at our initial entry. It may sound silly, but the main reason is that we think TLAB has potential to break these recent highs, but it may need some further consolidation and probably to test that ascending support.

Anybody with time to follow intraday action, can easily trade according to this scenario forecast and exit / re-entry TLAB during such a test on the $10.20, but personally I hope this scenario is wrong and to see TLAB up again tomorrow following today's intraday momentum

Trading Plan:
Hold TLAB with a stop @ $10.15

Regards,