NBIX

[Ramsburg]

Profile: Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. engages in the discovery and development of drugs for the treatment of neurological and endocrine-related diseases and disorders in the United States. It primarily develops drugs for the treatment of insomnia, anxiety, depression, various female and male health disorders, multiple sclerosis, diabetes, and other neurological and endocrine related diseases and disorders. The company had nine programs in various stages of research and development, including seven programs in clinical development, as of December 31, 2005.
Website: http://www.neurocrine.com
Market Cap: 445M

Trading Idea:
NBIX is a highly depressed stock, crushed by FDA rejections and tumbling from the $70s in March to below $10 in June. This stock has several opened gaps, and the long term chart looks scary at least.  
Although the short term technical behaviour has been interesting, and after that huge drop, NBIX looks like having found a base with a double bottom setup at $8.5. This stock is so depressed that any good news could be a nice catalyst for a significant rebound (and probably after such great disillusions this year, some good news may be coming).
Yesterday NBIX breakout an ascending triangle pattern, and closed at the highs of the current trading range closing also above its ema50 for the first time since March, if we got a continuation candle now, we can have a nice rally in place.

We are setting up a trade here, because we can use the $10.60 ascending support as a safe stop in case this goes wrong, and the upside potential is very interesting.

Trading Plan:
Buy NBIX today at or near the open.

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Update:
Interesting start for this trade, NBIX had a continuation candle after the recent bullish signs. The June Gap is now almost filled; our goal is to sell NBIX above $13.50 this month, so let's wait for some price developments this week... $11.75 should act as a short term support now.

Trading Plan:
Hold NBIX
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop or limited sell order for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $10.75 and the suggest exit would be above $13.50)

Regards,

[Amarens]

Hi Frederick,

Was too late on Friday, but got in today on the low at $ 11,90  . Happ y to be in, like the set up from this one.

Let's hope it won't give us insomnia

Amarens

[Ramsburg]

Hi Frederick,

Was too late on Friday, but got in today on the low at $ 11,90  . Happ y to be in, like the set up from this one.

Let's hope it won't give us insomnia

Amarens

Wow 11.90, what a catch for today
Insomnia... no way

[Ramsburg]

Update:
NBIX is consolidating the recent rally, volume has dropped a bit which is normal, but we don't want to take many «insomnia» risks here... so we'll set a stop near our entry level and just let this trade running while we sleep quietly

Trading Plan:
Hold NBIX with a stop @ $11.85 (and a suggest exit  above $13.50)

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Update:
Interesting day for NBIX, reaching a new high for this rebound, trading briefly above $13 during the day after breaking out the short term consolidation range. We maintain our sell target above $13.50 and we're just upgrading the stop level to a profit zone.

Trading Plan:
Hold NBIX with a stop @ $12.25 (and a suggest exit  above $13.50)

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Update:
Friday wasn't too nice for NBIX, the stock went down again, retesting the previous top of the short term range... We don't want to think much about this position; the technical setup has been working, so I believe our stop @ $12.25 and suggested exit above $13.50 is a nice way of handling it for now... I'm not sure about mid term developments, but it makes sense that NBIX closes the gap at this point before going down for a technical correction... lets wait.

Trading Plan:
Hold NBIX with a stop @ $12.25 (and a suggest exit  above $13.50)

Regards,

[setravis]

RECEIVES $109M FROM SALE AND LEASEBACK AGREEMENT: Neurocrine Biosciences,
Inc. (NBIX) has closed its sale and leaseback agreement with Veralliance Properties for its real
estate assets. Total consideration received by Neurocrine for the properties was $109 million.
Concurrently with the closing of the transaction, Neurocrine leased back its corporate headquarters
for a 12 year term, with renewal options. Neurocrine also has certain options under the
lease to repurchase all of the properties included in the transaction at certain times during lease
period. Under the terms of the asset purchase agreement, Neurocrine will receive cash of approximately
$61 million net of fees, expenses and existing indebtedness.

[gambler2075]

I believe this is a good buy for a double within the year... the company is very undervalued based on it's pipeline, and any new good news will probably make this jump.

In at 4.65

[gambler2075]

In nbix 100% at 5.00

I have already bought nbix at 4.65 in the past and sold at 5.17...

now back in.

trading at cash... yes, they do have 180million$ in the bank (according to their last conf call)

"Our balance sheet as of December 31, 2007 includes cash and investment for approximately $180 million. This is essentially where the company began 2007 from the cash perspective. Cash balances were replenished during the fourth quarter through a combination of the DSP and upfront license agreement and the sale leaseback transaction."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/6325...e=yahoo&page=2

and pipeline valued at 0. GnRH antagonist deal imminent...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/6325...e=yahoo&page=4
Kevin C. Gorman - President and CEO
Yeah. As far as you can see this is a broad Phase II programs that Chris is running here. And this is an important strategic asset for the company. A strength of the company has always been our business development group which I headed up for a number of years. We have completed high quality deals with virtually all the major pharmaceutical companies in the world but the basic tenet that we have always held to and always will hold is doing the right deal with the right company.
Now we are currently negotiating with multiple partners. We are well passed the economic terms and now we are in that aspect of negotiation in those late stages where you need to insure that the strategy and vision of the program is accurately captured throughout the written agreement. Now within large pharmacies, this takes coordination among multiple internal stakeholders for collaboration that some of their own Phase II programs this large that addresses multiple therapeutic areas. We are motivated to complete a deal and our prospective partners are motivated. We will get the right deal done with the right partner and it will be done in a timely manner.

[gambler2075]

NBIX imo is breaking out... and is a huge buy here from both the TA and FA perspectives... I did sell out at 4.95, but then made a couple of sweet trades in solf and dfr, and now am back in with way more shares of nbix at 5.46...

from my Ivillage post:

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=3440&mn=15442&pt=msg&mid=4424074

g