SIX - Sector: Services---Industry: General Entertainment

[Terliso]

SIX has been hammered straight down from 11.93 to 4.53 ......I think it is time to buy

[Terliso]

Six Flags Launches New Package of Season Pass Benefits
Monday October 16, 9:00 am ET 
This Year's Season Passes Provide More Value and Guest Benefits Than Ever Before, Unparalleled By Any Other Theme Parks - Including Industry First, 'Dream Nite'
Six Flags 2007 Season Passes Now on Sale in Park and Online


NEW YORK, Oct. 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Six Flags (NYSE: SIX - News), the world's largest regional theme park company, today announced the kickoff of its 2007 Season Pass "pre-season sale," marking its lowest season pass prices of the year, and offering purchasers a host of new benefits that enhance the Six Flags Season Pass as an unparalleled value in the theme park industry.
Every Six Flags Season Pass -- which pays for itself in fewer than two visits -- is valid at all 13 Six Flags-branded parks in the US, at no additional cost. By comparison, Cedar Point, another theme park company, requires its season pass holders to pay as much as $55 extra to gain access to all its theme parks. In addition, when guests purchase a Season Parking Pass, it will be valid at every Six Flags-branded park all year long.

This year, season pass purchasers will also receive a Value Book with over $300 worth of extra benefits, including:


     * Five free "bring a friend" tickets;

     * A free companion ticket good for admission to any other Six Flags park;

     * 15% off all merchandise all season long each time guests spend more
       than $25 at park stores;

     * Special promotions and exclusive events for passholders.

In addition, some Six Flags parks will offer extended hours exclusively for Six Flags Season Passholders. For example, next summer Six Flags Great Adventure in Jackson, NJ will be hosting "RISE & SCREAM - Extreme Coaster Mornings" every Monday through Thursday June-August 2007. RISE & SCREAM gives Six Flags Season Passholders an hour of exclusive early morning ride time on a rotating selection of Six Flags Great Adventure's most popular coasters, including Kingda Ka, El Toro, Nitro, SUPERMAN-Ultimate Flight, BATMAN the Ride, Medusa and Great American Scream Machine.

Some Six Flags parks will also be offering "Coasters After Dark," when parks will stay open past their published closing times exclusively for Season Passholders, who will have the run of the park and enjoy the park's major roller coasters -- in the dark!

When Six Flags guests purchase and activate a 2007 season pass, they are automatically entered to win their Dream Nite, the party of a lifetime, when six winners per park will host their own private night at Six Flags and invite up to 100 of their friends and family to share it with them.

"Families buying their Six Flags Season Passes from now through the end of December will find the lowest prices as well as a broad spectrum of guest benefits unmatched by any other theme parks," said Mark Shapiro, Six Flags President and CEO. "We hope that the families who began to re-discover the new Six Flags in 2006 will take this opportunity to get their season passes for 2007, when the Six Flags experience at its very core will be about great guest service."

[tokyopua]

SIX has been hammered straight down from 11.93 to 4.53 ......I think it is time to buy

I could be wrong because I wasnt paying much attention, but Cramer might have pumped it today, and there might be one of those Cramer gaps up tomorrow if so.

[Terliso]

No wonder SIX is up 7.67% after hours 

[calven]

Hey guys this came up on my ascending triangle scans today 

I like it!

[calven]

Just picked up half of the total shares I plan to buy at 6.22 - I will buy again if this heads towards the support trendline at 6.00

[calven]

Keep an eye on SIX - Looks like a mid quarter update coming after hours.

[David Randolph]

June 11th, 2007:

Initial video analysis for SIX:

<img src="http://www.3stocksonfire.org/images/stocksonvideo_b_up.gif" width="440" height="21" border="0">
<object width="440" height="360"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/613vK0PFc0s"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/613vK0PFc0s" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="440" height="360"></embed></object>
<img src="http://www.3stocksonfire.org/images/stocksonvideo_b_down.gif" width="440" height="21" border="0">

[David Randolph]

SIX is starting to get interesting here as a turnaround candidate. As the share price collapsed to an all time low of $2 a share I see a barrage of insiders buying shares in the open market or converting options to buy shares at $2.17, which is more than the current market price.

I especially note one director, Dwight Schar increasing his stake from 3,915,308 shares to 5,016,808 shares around current market prices. Of course, the man has been wrong for a long time about owning those 3.9 million shares to begin with, but the fact that he has meaningfully increased his stake and other corporate officials are also committing serious money to the stock tells me management his putting money where their mouth is, which is a positive sign.

I also enjoy the company's business, I guess they're natural monopolies in the cities they operate (even though fundamentals are terrible now - of course, or else the stock wouldn't be this low).

I'll investigate further over the next few days, SIX is a strong turnaround candidate.

[David Randolph]

I could have bought SIX yesterday below the price insiders recently bought heavily and gained a good 7.7% on the day, but what the heck, there's a price to pay for further confirmation.

Now I've read all the material public information and there's plenty of evidence that SIX is trading at a deep discount to its fair value. Moreover, this discount was caused by temporary factors and we've had 17 corporate insiders buying shares in the $1.90-$2.20 range.

SIX has been a troubled company since 2002 and traded between $3 and $12 in the 2002-2007 period:



In July 2007 there was an accident in the company's park in Kentucky which got extensive national media coverage (25 million people visit the company's parks annually, of course a few accidents, even though they're regrettable, are inevitable). Moreover, July's weather was abnormally bad and due to these factors attendance in July fell 9% from the year ago levels. Prior to these events, attendance for June had increased 10% over the prior year. Following these events, August stabilized at 1% and September increased 8% over the prior year attendance.

Due to this July drop in attendance, the stock fell from $6.09 to $3.25 in July. Everybody knew the seasonally strong quarter (Q3) results were going to be bad, and indeed they were:

• Six Flags Reports Third Quarter Results
PR Newswire (Fri, Nov 9)

The stock fell below $2 on the actual news and heavy insider buying began. The stock is just too cheap and they know it and they're pouring serious money into it (one of the directors bought 1.1 million shares recently).

We're talking about the world's largest regional theme park company, currently worth just $212 M. I don't see any risk of bankruptcy, at least not over the short or medium term, because the company has $105.4 million in cash and $275 M in a revolving credit facility (available, except $33 M in letters of credit).

Management talks about a turnaround in 2008. I'm not sure if the turnaround will be successful or not, but I'm positive that between now and then we'll see the stock between $3 and $4. Not a huge gain, but we have the security of insiders buying at current levels to believe we're at the bottom, so I believe it's worth it.

Trading Plan:

Buy SIX, 6.66% of capital as usual.

[AussieTrader]

I have to admit I saw the comment about SIX yesterday, was intrigued, investigated and concluded it's low valuation was way over done. I bought yesterday at $2.12 with the expectation of at least a 50% gain potential over the short term. Glad to see David validating my decision with his analysis. Yesterdays market action certainly helped SIX, lets hope that fortells the outcome of this trade.

[David Randolph]

I have to admit I saw the comment about SIX yesterday, was intrigued, investigated and concluded it's low valuation was way over done. I bought yesterday at $2.12 with the expectation of at least a 50% gain potential over the short term. Glad to see David validating my decision with his analysis. Yesterdays market action certainly helped SIX, lets hope that fortells the outcome of this trade.

Nice timing Aussie

On Friday we've had another negative headline for SIX:

• Fitch downgrades Six Flags senior unsecured note rating
at MarketWatch (Fri, Nov 30)

Yet, the stock still went higher on the day (+2.2%), showing the negative factors were already priced in and people are looking at the potential upcoming recovery (which isn't discounted, not at these prices). I say this because SIX's book value is $250 M and the market cap is $221 M.

Among other things, Fitch wrote the following:

«Recent performance has been softer than expected with attendance flat and revenue up only 2% for the nine-months period ended Sept. 30, 2007. Fitch recognizes that third quarter performance (attendance down 3%) was negatively affected by a particularly weak July, Six Flags' highest attendance month. July appears to have been negatively impacted by weather and negative publicity regarding a high profile safety tragedy in June at one of its parks. It is not clear whether July was an anomaly or whether it is indicative of a poor strategy/execution, however, with attendance up for all other reported periods in the year, there appears to be some evidence that management's strategy could have a positive affect on operations. We recognize that the significant operating leverage in the business means that increases in attendance and revenue can have more than an estimated 2 times (x) the percentage increase for EBITDA (and an even greater affect after if adjusted for management's goal of $50-60 million in cost cuts).»

It appears to me that the fall from about $6 to $2 was entirely due to a one time event: a weak July due to bad weather and a tragedy that it appears was already forgotten by consumers (since September attendance grew 8% from the year ago levels).

If 2008 shapes up to be "normal", that is, normal weather and no accidents with national media intense coverage, I guess SIX will at least get back up to $6 a share.

I'll keep holding SIX for the long term.

[David Randolph]

SIX's insiders believe the following plan will work and they committed serious money into it:

• Six Flags Provides 2007 Review and Outlook for Upcoming Year
PR Newswire (Fri, Nov 9)

Only time will tell if it will work or not. If it does work SIX will probably be a $6 plus stock in late 2008. I'm a believer.

[David Randolph]

Nothing new on SIX today, I'll keep holding the stock for the long term.

[David Randolph]

Nothing new on SIX, just leaving the updated chart.