SIX - Sector: Services---Industry: General Entertainment

[David Randolph]

fyi:
IR January presentation:
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/61/616/61629/items/275719/SIX_pres_011608.pdf

please check the financial review

cheers
O.

Thanks for sharing this information with us La-onda

I don't have time to study it thoroughly now, let me just say that I enjoy the way SIX is positioning itself to capture meaningful revenues in advertising. As for the historical financial information, of course it's bad, this is why SIX went down from about $40 in 1999 to the current $2 or so and we can buy it as a turnaround candidate.

Financial information was already negative in early 2006 when SIX traded at $11.

Anyway, the presentation shows a sharp improvement in free cash flow from 2007 to 2008 (even though it still sees it as negative) and this should be enough to take it back up to $6 by year's end. At least this is what I'm expecting.

[Rmagos]

This may possible be "the salt in the meat"

NextSport to Partner with Six Flags Theme Parks to Launch In-Park Fuzion Scooter Riding Zones

Business Editors
     
EMERYVILLE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--February 17, 2008--NextSport, the creator
and manufacturer of the popular line of Fuzion performance scooters, announced
today, that it has entered into a multi-year partnership with Six Flags Theme
Parks to create in-park Fuzion Scooter Riding Zones with the first Fuzion Zone
to be unveiled in Spring 2008 at Six Flags Discovery Kingdom in Vallejo,
California.     
As all things related to board sports continue to gain popularity, a
partnership with Six Flags is a natural fit to create an engaging consumer
experience with our young brand as we share the same consumer audience that
seeks a safe, yet exhilarating experience,commented Ed Dua, President of
NextSport. The Fuzion Scooter Riding Zones will introduce a large audience of
kids all over the country to the great new ride of the Fuzion performance
scooter.     
The Fuzion Zones will provide Six Flags park guests the exciting opportunity
to ride a Fuzion scooter in a custom designed and fully supervised Fuzion skate
park. The Fuzion skate park will feature basic riding zones and a variety of
different ramp and jump configurations to accommodate all levels of riders.
Park guests will be trained and supervised by Fuzion trained park staff and a
team of Fuzion riders to help facilitate a safe and fun experience for
everyone.     
Additionally, Fuzion Zone participants and observers alike will have the
opportunity to watch members of the national Fuzion Pro Team demonstrate their
skills during Fuzion exhibitions, followed by meet and greet sessions and
autograph signings. And, eager and aspiring Fuzion Zone riders will be given
the unique opportunity to win prizes and sign up to be a member of Team Fuzion.     
The creation of the onsite Fuzion Zone is another example of the powerful
experiential marketing offerings available in our parks,said David McKillips,
Vice President of Corporate Alliances for Six Flags.
This partnership allows Fuzion to market its product directly to our guests and get invaluable
one-on-one face time with their key customers.
     
Six Flags will utilize their in-park signage programs, print and online
promotions and radio and TV advertisements to showcase the park`s Fuzion
Zones.
     
About NextSport Inc.
     
Founded in 2004, NextSport designs, develops, and manufactures innovative
action sports products. The company`s flagship product line, the Fuzion
performance scooter is sold in a wide range of sporting good, specialty and
mass retailers including Dicks Sporting Goods, Toys R Us, Sports Authority and
Target stores. NextSport is a privately owned company based in Emeryville, CA.
For more information about NextSport Inc. and Fuzion scooters please visit
www.nextsport.com.
     
About Six Flags
     
Six Flags, Inc. is the largest regional theme park company in the world -- a
national brand with regional focus. Our 21 entertainment destinations in North
America comprise theme, water and zoological parks. Last year, nearly 30
million guests spent a combined 250 million hours at Six Flags parks. Founded
in 1961, we celebrated our 45th anniversary in 2006. Six Flags, Inc. is a
publicly traded corporation (NYSE: SIX) headquartered in New York City. For
more information, please visit, www.sixflags.com.
               
Media Contact(s):
The Pollack PR Marketing Group
Stefan Pollack/Will Ostedt
310-556-4443
[email protected]
[email protected]
or
NextSport Contact:
Ed Dua, 800-727-0331
[email protected]

[David Randolph]

This may possible be "the salt in the meat"

• NextSport to Partner with Six Flags Theme Parks to Launch In-Park Fuzion Scooter Riding Zones
Business Wire (Sun, Feb 17)

I think it is another small step in the right direction for SIX, but not an important catalyst.

Motley Fool published an article on Six Flags:

• Disney 1, Six Flags 0
at Motley Fool (Tue, Feb 12)

I love it when they compare SIX ($217 M market cap) with Disney ($61 B) or even with FUN ($1.3 B).

There's more to say about this article and these comparisons, but I don't have much more time now before the open.

I remain very confident that we'll see SIX at $6 a share before 2008 closes.

[David Randolph]

Nothing new on SIX today, not much time either, I'll hold.

[David Randolph]

SIX was down 7.3% yesterday, on no relevant news. It's just another hard and long bottoming process. It makes me think that maybe I should resurrect some of technical analysis and buy just stocks which have the technicals and the fundamentals both pointing north.

On the other hand as I look to the Watch List and see so many false technical signals, with some bullish stocks suddenly collapsing ...

You can see that I'm not particularly well or strong today, the Main's losses, even though they're not as deep as they were about one month ago, are starting to put some pressure on me to radically change things in order to perform!

I'm glad it is the weekend now and I don't have time to do anything stupid ... let me just send the newsletter and go make some more research and thinking in the afternoon.

(I'll hold SIX, by the way)

[David Randolph]

Some good news out for SIX:

• Video: Six Flags Releases New Elements of 'The Dark Knight' Coaster
PR Newswire (Mon 3:00pm)

... and the stock went down 13.7% (but it closed up 6% in after hours trading)

4th quarter results will be out Monday before the open. Of course they won't be good, since SIX is a seasonal business. The two analysis following the company are expecting it to lose $1.06 per share in the 4th quarter.

Anyway, I just saw that the one analyst giving estimates for 2008 raised them from ($1.20) to ($0.66), that is, he cut his loss expectation in almost half:



This is a positive sign.

I actually think SIX's management is doing a good job and the company's turnaround will be successful. If not in 2008, I expect 2009 to be profitable for SIX. Of course, the market anticipates these things. When SIX was profitable, back in 1998, it was a $30 stock.

I'll keep holding SIX, despite the prolonged bottoming process.

[Garoh]

 SIX Six Flags: Dubailand issues additional press release in regards to strategic alliance between SIX and Tatweer to develop theme parks in Arab World (1.76 +0.06) 

Tatweer, a member of Dubai Holding, announced today a strategic alliance with US-based Six Flags (SIX) to develop thrill-driven theme parks across the Arab world. The highlight of the strategic alliance will be the development of Six Flags Dubailand, a five million square feet multi-billion dirham theme park within the world's largest tourism, leisure and entertainment destination. (note Tatweer released a press release regarding this alliance earlier today).

[David Randolph]

Thanks for posting this news Garoh

Six Flags, Dubai plan Arab world theme parks
Reuters(Wed 1:03am)

So SIX's management has been pulling strings in the Arab World ... this is just great. I think there's an immense World of possibilities for SIX's international expansion. For example, my home country, Portugal, with 11 million people doesn't have one single amusement park. People need to travel 300 miles to Spain to visit one.

Usually when people read "Dubai" they get excited, but that wasn't the case with SIX yesterday, since the stock was up just 2.3% on the news. Probably not many people was paying attention ... but today we have Associated Press, BizJournals and Reuters with brief stories on the press release, so maybe we'll get some more upside in the share price. SIX is up nicely in the pre-market.

I honestly didn't thought I would have to be so patient to be a long term investor. It is making me sick and I hardly sleep at night, wondering if what I'm doing is right, if you're losing money because of my fault ...

I believe that either way there will be valuable lessons from my current work.

I'll just keep holding SIX for the long term.

[David Randolph]

Again, SIX already had its bear market and the future depends a lot more on management's ability to turn things around than the US economy. Americans will always have money to take their kids to an amusement park, this is a necessary thing for them.

Moreover SIX has a lot of opportunities and potential to develop parks all over the World, as evidenced by the recent news showing they'll build a park in Dubai.

I believe SIX's management is doing a good job and with time it will return the company to profitability. Insiders bought serious money around $2 and I'll keep the faith on this one.

[Garoh]

 SIX Six Flags provides Y08 outlook (1.62 ) -Update- 

Co sees Y08 Adjusted EBITDA of approx $270 mln and be within $25 mln of achieving positive free cash flow, with attendance flat at 24.9 mln. CEO says, "The season is underway and despite a tightening economy, we remain cautiously optimistic -- first quarter attendance has good momentum; season pass sales are up strong double digits; our corporate sponsorship business continues to gain traction; and our strategic expansion into Dubai provides for yet another promising revenue stream." 

[David Randolph]

SIX's 4th quarter and full year 2007 results were out ...

Six Flags Reports 2007 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results
PR Newswire(Mon 7:45am)

... there were fairly positive projections over the conference call:

Six Flags Provides Outlook for 2008
PR Newswire(Mon 8:42am)

AussieTrader just told be that today the US markets open one hour earlier so I have just 7 minutes to send the newsletter (I'm sorry, I didn't know the US hour would change this week).

There's a lot to say about SIX's results and conference call, but everything seems to be on track with what I've been expecting and I remain confident in the success of the company's turnaround plan.

SIX's CEO said some strong words in the CC:

«With regard to the Company's ability to achieve positive free cash flow in 2008, Mr. Speed stated: "Through increased guest spending and new high margin revenue streams, combined with meaningful cost and capital expense efficiencies, we have positioned the Company to generate positive free cash flow for the first time in its history."»

I'll keep holding SIX for the long term.

[JKN]

Just a note:  I heard a Six Flags advertisement on KFI, Los Angeles radio station this morning.  First one I've heard...

[dnickers]

I've been seeing some large print ads for SIX at the grocery store Ralphs, also in LA. 

[David Randolph]

Just a note:  I heard a Six Flags advertisement on KFI, Los Angeles radio station this morning.  First one I've heard...

I've been seeing some large print ads for SIX at the grocery store Ralphs, also in LA. 

Thanks for your testimonials JKN and dnickers

SIX's management seems to be taking all the right steps in turning the company around to long term profitability. I believe them when saying their 26 million annual visitors are a very valuable public for advertising and they can make relevant revenues and increase their profit margins selling advertising space.

Ads on TV are losing value, due to Tivo and constant zapping. Ads on the internet are also going down, since GOOG just revealed it is getting less clicks on its ads (3 Stocks revenue from Google went down from $2,500 a month to $200 a month in less than a year). I think the most valuable advertising space is in waiting lines ... I mean, there people actually want to see some ads for distraction purposes.

Not that the market cares anything at all about the future now ... SIX is a small cap with significant leverage and the chart says sell. Moreover the company has been experiencing losses for a very long time. Not many people paying attention to the turnaround possibility, so we'll probably have to wait for the real facts to get some buying interest.

I'll continue holding SIX for the long term.

[David Randolph]

I read the title of a post, I believe it was written by terainvestment, saying "SIX: Possibility of bankruptcy?" or something like that but didn't read it at the time and it isn't here anymore.

Maybe the post had to do with the following article, which mentions Six Flags:

Bear Bails Out Bernanke
at Motley Fool(Thu, Mar 20)

«If Six Flags has another horrendous season or two, will Bernanke step in and take roller coasters for collateral?»

hehe, well, I don't think so, but SIX will probably have a good 2008, things started well. I hope there isn't any accident with a lot of media coverage like it happened in 2007.

I'll keep holding SIX, believing in its turnaround plan. This company has been around since 1961 , I don't think it will ever file for bankruptcy.