TIBX

[trader412]

Once it breaks 7.20, it should run.  Thoughts anyone?

[David Randolph]

Volume is too weak today. It's true it may run if it breaks $7.20 but it doesn't look that's going to happen today. Thanks and good luck trader412 !

[trader412]

Agree today's volume is weak, but it has been increasing past 2 hrs and it's trading right near resistance.  Hoping for a surge in volume to send this puppy higher.

[trader412]

Pre market action looks good.   

[jeff46902]

I agree that it looks good, too.  I was just coming to this board to suggest this stock that I found this morning, but I guess someone beat me to it.   

Good luck, longs!

[boatguy]

On watch

Looking for entry on pullback or may enter with a move above $8.90 with volume

[ScottishTrader]

Hey boatguy,

thanks for the heads up on TIBX, I like the look of the chart, solid ascending support and ready to breakout above $9.  Having a little read, it sounds like there are some analysts hesitations who say it is fairly valued, but I like the look of the chart setup.

Reasonable volume early this am so I'm in at 8.85

[boatguy]

Placed a buy stop order @ 9.03

Good luck to us!!

[boatguy]

TIBX up nicely this morning! 9.41 now

[David Randolph]

1. Introduction

Although the market is rising and I think it will continue to rise for some more time, I'm not finding many attractive stocks to buy, at least not at first sight. I thought I take a look at TIBX, since the chart is attractive. Today is the day I met this stock and I'll study it for just about 2 hours, so excuse me if I don't know everything about it.

I'm just a prospective buyer, looking for opportunities. If the trading opportunity doesn't show up in a 2 hour study, I don't think it exists at all. I'm analyzing 3 Stocks a day as I prepare to co-manage the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (which allows for just 15 different holdings, so I need to be very selective). By the way, if you're new to www.3stocksonfire.org, please register so you can receive our daily newsletter.

2. Profile

TIBCO Software, Inc. (TIBX) provides business integration and process management software. It engages in the development and marketing of software products that enable businesses to link internal operations, business partners, and customer channels through the distribution of information. TIBCO's solutions include three categories of software: Business Process Management Software, Business Optimization Software, and Service-Oriented Architecture. The Business Process Management Software enables the automation and coordination of the assets and tasks that make up a business process. These products coordinate the human and electronic resources inside a business and their network of customers and partners. The Business Optimization Software routes information to appropriate recipients, lets user access information, and provides users with the ability to analyze and act on information. The Service-Oriented Architecture enables organizations to migrate information technology infrastructure by turning information and functions into discrete and reusable components that can be invoked from across the business and aggregated with other such services to create composite applications. TIBCO also offers consulting services, such as systems planning and design, installation, and systems integration, as well as software support and maintenance options, and global training programs. The company's products are sold through a direct sales force and through alliances with software vendors and systems integrators. It serves various industries, including energy, financial services, healthcare, government, manufacturing, retail, telecommunications, and transportation and logistics. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.

3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart



TIBX is a fallen angel of the tech bubble. Nothing new here.

3.2. Medium Term Chart



Recently the stock was able to cross and hold above $9, which is a bullish technical development. There's no medium term trend but the short term is positive:

3.3. Short Term Chart



I like this short term chart. The trend is ascending and probably sooner or later the stock will make a new high above $9.5. But I still need to see if the fundamentals are supportive.

4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding



When the company entered the public market in 1998, did it to finance itself. So it sold many shares as it was losing money from operations. The share sale happened between 1998 and 2003. Then it stalled and this year actually the company is buying back shares. I sure like this development, as it has a positive effect on EPS and market cap.

Current market cap is 211,207,378*$9.41 = $1.99 B.

4.2. Liquidity



There's plenty of liquidity at TIBX, as working capital is $487 M. The current ratio, which is Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities = 4. This is an healthy number.

4.3. Revenues



There has been steady revenue growth since 2003. Estimates for the current quarter, which ends in November 06, are a bit high at $142.52 M. This would be the strongest quarter ever for TIBX. Don't know why estimates are this high. For Q1 2007, ending in February 07, estimates are for $122.71 M, which is back on average growth.

Anyway, the estimated Price to Sales Ratio is 3.99. The Business Software and Services industry Price to Sales Ratio is 2.39.

4.4. Profits



EPS is the same in 2006 as in 2005. The estimate for full 2006 is $0.32 a share, and the company made $0.19 in the first 3 quarters of the year. For 2007 the EPS estimate is $0.36 a share. The current earnings multiple is 29.4. This industry's average is 32.3.

5. General Overview

Technical analysis is positive. The company is buying back shares. Balance sheet is strong. Revenues are growing. There was no profit growth in 2005, but analysts think there will be 20% EPS growth in 2007.

TIBX isn't cheap, but it isn't expensive either. I would say the stock has some upside. But I don't think it is good enough for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. I'll continue to search for better opportunities in terms of risk/reward.

6. Trading Plan

I'll keep TIBX under radar watch, if I don't find anything better, it is better than cash.

If you would like to receive my trading ideas and analysis on your mailbox, please register.

[ScottishTrader]

Hi David,

Me and boatguy picked up some TIBX last month when it looked set to break through 9.00 for the second time.  To be honest, I sold my position pretty quickly, as while there was volume, it wasn't reflected by price action on what should have been a breakout from major resistance.  Since then as TIBX has consolidated between 9 and 9.50 volume has dried off some again.  There simply seems to be too much churn on this one (having watched the tape, literally millions of shares trading in a range of a few cents).  I think it is entirely possible that this will break 9.50, and maybe this will kick off a new run, but I think it is more of a slow burner than as you said, a "stock on fire".

Cheers,
ST

[David Randolph]

I agree Scottish Trader, not on fire. I have a mildly positive outlook, but not good enough to recommend.

Let me merge this thread and the other one you're talking about, I know you like this board organized 

[boatguy]

Looking good today

Up 10%

Tibco beats 4Q-

Tibco Software Inc. (TIBX.O: Quote, Profile , Research) on Wednesday said fourth-quarter profit beat its most recent forecast by 2 cents a share, citing preliminary results, and sending its stock up 13 percent.

The business software maker also said that fourth-quarter software sales climbed 29 percent from a year earlier to $86 million. That is above its most-recent forecast of $69 million to $73 million.

Total quarterly revenue, which includes services revenue as well as software sales, rose 18 percent to $158 million, the company said, also citing preliminary results. That is above Tibco's prior forecast of $140 million to $144 million.


Tibco's fiscal 2006 fourth quarter ended Nov. 30.