AVNX

[Buyhigh?]

AVNX over support levels!

[Leaira]

This stock went down the past few days, but on lower volume.  Is this still bullish?  I still have my position.

Thanks
Leaira

[kslifka]

AVNX is coming down after hitting the upper trendline a few days ago.  It's still in a bullish channel.  MACD is still bullish.   
As long as it stays above the lower trendline tomorrow at 1.23, it remains bullish; however, the overall market is bearish.

[agentq314]

I think AVNX may have established a support at $1.00 on Friday, January 6. The company lowered revenue expectations from $37 Million to $35 Million and the stock dropped about 17% in one day. I think this is a good entry point to pickup a bounce, but I would like to know what others think. The 3-month chart is below. There's no real support until maybe $0.85 but I don't think the stock will fall that far because the it did not lower revenue guidance enough to justify that kind of drop.

[setravis]

I will be watching for the pull back and how it reacts.

Wow...I said I would watch for a pull back !
Looks like we got a downward revision.
May have picked up support at the 200-dma.

Volume: 18,824,482
Avg Vol (3m): 3,085,630

Technicals
Most Actives
Percentage Loser

Last Price Quote is:
-17.91%below 13-day EMA
RS Rating: 88 

Fundamentals
Reports Earnings

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $144.01 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 02/06/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Hold

[la-onda]

bounced back from 38.2% fibonacci suport @ 0.95$ 

setravis, your opinion is appreciated
thanks Oliver

Avanex says Q2 revenue will be lower than expected
Friday January 6, 12:08 pm ET
Avanex Corp., which sells fiber optic technology, said Friday it expects revenue for the second quarter ended Dec. 31 to be lower than its previous guidance.
The Fremont company (NASDAQ: AVNX - News) said preliminary financial data lead it to expect revenue of between $35 million and $37 million for the quarter. Previously, the company gave guidance of between $41 million and $45 million.
Avanex shut a factory in Erwin Park, N.Y., in December, and shifted manufacturing from that plant to a contractor. This change contributed to the shortfall in revenue.
Avanex cut its cash usage to about $8 million in the second quarter, compared with $40 million in its first quarter.
Published January 6, 2006 by San Francisco Business Times

[la-onda]

AVNX presentation from 7th of December:
http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=avnx&script=1200

insider buying:
http://www.secform4.com/insider/showhistory.php?cik=avnx

reason for drop:
Avanex Announces Preliminary Financial Results for Second Fiscal Quarter 2006

FREMONT, Calif., Jan. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Avanex Corporation (Nasdaq: AVNX), a pioneer of intelligent photonic solutions that enable next-generation optical networks, today announced preliminary financial results for its second fiscal quarter ended Dec. 31, 2005.

Based on preliminary financial data, the company expects net revenue in the second fiscal quarter to be in the range of $35 Million to $37 Million, compared to previous revenue guidance of $41 Million to $45 Million. Avanex expects positive gross margins but below its previous guidance of greater than 10 percent.

Cash usage decreased to approximately $8 Million in the second fiscal quarter compared to $20 Million in the first fiscal quarter. Avanex expects its cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments, restricted cash and investments to be approximately $46 Million as of Dec. 31, 2005 compared to $54 Million at Sept. 30, 2005.

The shortfall in revenue and gross margin was due to operational execution issues that arose primarily as a result of the closure of the Erwin Park, New York manufacturing facility in early December and the transfer of manufacturing to a contract manufacturer. Jo Major, Avanex CEO, commented, "While we are pleased with our cash control and overall customer demand, we are obviously disappointed that transitional operational issues prevented us from meeting the delivery needs of our customers and our revenue objectives for the quarter. The Avanex team is working closely with our contract manufacturer for these products to resolve these issues."

Avanex is in the process of transferring substantially all of its manufacturing to contract manufacturers.

The results announced today are preliminary and are subject to change. Avanex will report its full results for the second fiscal quarter on Wednesday, Feb. 8, 2006, at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time. The number for the conference call is +1-210-835-2510, and the password is "Avanex." To listen via the Internet, please log on to www.avanex.com. A replay of the conference call will be available until Feb. 16, 2006 at +1-203-369-0356 or online at www.avanex.com under "Investors/Audio Archives."


regards
O.

[akam]

have been following both FNSR and AVNX very closely.

went long with AVNX, though FNSR seemingly in nice uptrend.


_____________FNSR_________AVNX___________________________
MCap               785M                167M
P/Sales             2.48                 1.01
Rev.                316M                166M
Cash                96M                  46M
Debt               237M                 33M
Shares            296M                  145M

4.5 times difference in market cap is NOT justified.
FNSR former CEO Levinson left, selling massively.AVNX has big insider BUY instead.
Historically AVNX has been trading at higher price level.

Personally one more reason - I just do not get all of these acquisitions by FNSR and also
their cash position is sth mystical.Where is cash going to from this co??

AVNX at least 50% undervalued compared to FNSR.jmo.

[qma]

It is all on tomorrow CC.

[ScottishTrader]

Looks like Avanex's loss has narrowed quite a bit this last quarter, down to .09 per share (.06 per share GAAP) on revs of $36.1M, so maybe their restructuring is on track here.  They are guiding revs of $36-40M for next quarter, but it is not clear how this will convert to EPS, although on the CC they are stressing reducing their cost basis and restructuring.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060208/sfw104.html?.v=30

This level and next quarters levels of revs are still below the last couple of quarters, but it remains to be seen what WS makes of this tomorrow.  Price was unbelievably static today

[akam]

volume picking up. things seem to have settled for AVNX.

this stock may really fly sometimes 

[ScottishTrader]

Yep, I think we have an ascending triangle breakout on our hands 
Low = .95, high = 1.20 -> Breakout target of 1.45.

I got in this morning at 1.15, have been scoping AVNX for a while now after trading it well when it was  a 3SOF pick.  Shoulda got in around 1.06, but shoulda woulda coulda - in now.  I think the earnings report will be taken well, and as evidence that AVNX is clearly in turnaround and restrucutring of their cost basis is producing results.  Not quite sure what a fair value is yet, will have to investigate some more, but I hope for a run into the 1.40s at least for now.  Will see.  Nice breakout though, and boy am I glad it was static this morning allowing me a decent entry

[ScottishTrader]

After breaking out of that ascending triangle on solid volume for 2 days, AVNX had 2 days of pullback on lower volume, hitting 1.20 support yesterday and closing on a doji.  The fact that key support at 1.20 didn't break is crucial, and I think the candlestick pattern suggests the small pullback is through.  I am looking for a nice little candle today, followed by a move into 1.30+ either the end of this week or beginning of next week.  What I don't want to see is a move below 1.20 support, invalidating the breakout, and will sell on a close below this level.

[Ramsburg]

Nice breakout here

Scottish, are you holding it ?

best regards !

[ScottishTrader]

you better believe it 

Actually sold out a couple of days ago when I thought 1.40 resistance would push it back down again, but after yesterday's clear break through 1.40 I got right back in.  Looking real good so far...  What ever happened to AVNX for 3SOF?