ESLR - Sector: Technology---Industry: Semiconductors

[cumulina]

Thanks, Melf.

I bailed out of ESLR again. 

I'm holding on to some really bad loosers right now, and I don't need another!

Perhaps I should quit trading all together and go back to knitting sweaters! 

Not quite as exciting, though...

I have this funny feeling that the market (especially energy and precious metals) are being manipulated in some way, but I'm not smart enough to see how it's done.
I'll be really, REALLY curious to see what happens around mid-november...

Now I'm down to only 4 different stock:

FPP
CHK
GG
HDY - my lottery ticket...

Good luck, all.

[Melf Elf]

I bailed out of ESLR again. 

cumulina,

Applause for your decision.  Even if yesterday was a Bullish Hamme,r and even if ESLR rockets higher from here, over time, I think it's a good idea to sell a break of a triple bottom in a bear market. 

For example, GV broke key support at 1.25 (it was a QUINTUPLE bottom!), rallied to 1.40, but now is at 0.93, down 25%, just from the break of 1.25.

"Don't let a loss turn into a disaster."    

I'm holding on to some really bad loosers right now, and I don't need another!

Good for you!  If a trading plan goes wrong, dump it and take a small loss.

GG

GG broke below an Ascending Triangle on August 31 on the announcement of the deal with GLG.  It re-tested the breakdown and failed right at the trendline, MADE the 24.07 target, then MADE the 20.85 target this morning.

Hopefully, you'll get a bounce.  Good luck!

[Melf Elf]

The Triple bottom broke just after the open, and the 7.51 target MADE, within six cents.

ESLR rallied back to down trendline resistance, then the 7.51 target MADE exactly   this morning. That's the low so far.

Kinda fun when a number hits like that.   

[la-onda]

cumulina, MelfELf,
25 Mio $ per year extra sales for ELSR 

9.3$ premarket
happy trading

Evergreen Solar signs $100 mln contract with Mainstream Energy
Oct 16 (Reuters) - Evergreen Solar Inc. (ESLR.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said it has entered into a four-year supply contract with Mainstream Energy LLC, to ship about $100 million of photovoltaic modules.
The modules will be manufactured at Evergreen's plant in Massachusetts and at EverQ's German factory, the manufacturer of solar power products said in a statement.

Mainstream Energy, through its subsidiaries, sells, distributes and installs solar electric systems. (Reporting by Shikhar Balwani in Bangalore)

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061016:MTFH65857_2006-10-16_12-22-31_WNAS8622&type=comktNews&rpc=44

[Melf Elf]

cumulina, MelfELf,
25 Mio $ per year extra sales for ELSR 

9.3$ premarket
happy trading

Evergreen Solar signs $100 mln contract with Mainstream Energy

Thanks for that news, Oliver.

ESLR rallied right to the top of the Falling Wedge (the black line coming off the April Bull Trap Fakeout), which also was the bottom of Kumo (Cloud) resistance, then the selloff began from the 9.80 intraday high.

More good news on October 18: Citigroup UPGRADED it to Buy.

The result was a "Gap To Crap" opening from 9.14 to 9.55, smack on resistance at the top of the Falling Wedge, and that was the exact high on the day.  The stock has been selling off since.

ESLR has come back to its 50DMA (8.83), so that could offer support here.  Technically, a breakout above the Falling Wedge "should" get ESLR back to the top of the last Bearish Rising Wedge, at 10.42, then possibly higher.

What would look better, though, is for the stock to go back down and fill the 8.21-8.30 gap from last Friday, or at least to the 8 and 22-days (solid green and solid red lines) then take out the top of the Falling Wedge.

The fact that our last downside target of 7.51 MADE suggests that the low could be in, at 7.27.  Targets don't always get MADE, but when one still is outstanding, it's a threat.  Those are out of the way now.

That 7.27 low "almost" was a 3-day Bullish Morning Star, too.  The third day's white candle wa shy of making it half way through the first day's black candle by only three cents.  That's another suggestion that ESLR might have put in a low.

The 34/55 RSIs also are acting well.  I'll show you that chart next.

[Melf Elf]

For perspective, we can see that last winter, the 34/55 RSIs broke down from a Double Top.  After that, the stock rallied back above the broken neckline, and also rallied above the Right Shoulder, where I got caught in a short squeeze and had to cover for a loss. 

Notice that on that rally, however,  all the 34/55RSIs managed to do, was to come into Bearish Synchronicity (the 34 went up and back-kissed the 55), then it gave a sell signal by failing there. 

And, speaking of failing...I failed to re-enter short, which would have been a great trade. 

From then on, this indicator has remained bearish, with a couple of little upside fakeouts along the way (just noise).

In the current time-frame, the 34/55RSIs not only have Double Bottomed, they've broken out to the upside, and the 34RSI has turned Bullish, by thrusting above its shadow, the 55RSI.

Just as it took awhile for the top to play out after this indicator broke down from the Double Top (we had to go through the short-squeezing rally above the Right Shoulder in the chart, into April earnings), this could take awhile to play out, as well.

For now, this is indicating Bullish.

[la-onda]

just fyi:
Evergreen Solar "hold"

Wednesday, October 18, 2006 5:37:18 AM ET
Deutsche Securities
NEW YORK, October 18 (newratings.com) - In a research note published yesterday, analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities maintain their "hold" rating on Evergreen Solar (ESLR.NAS). The target price is set to $9.

[Melf Elf]

just fyi:
Evergreen Solar "hold"

Wednesday, October 18, 2006 5:37:18 AM ET
Deutsche Securities
NEW YORK, October 18 (newratings.com) - In a research note published yesterday, analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities maintain their "hold" rating on Evergreen Solar (ESLR.NAS). The target price is set to $9.

Thanks, Oliver.  I didn't hear a target when Citigroup upgraded it to Buy on October 18.

[ScottishTrader]

heads up on ESLR - yesterday produced a nice hammer reversal candle, very nearly filling the recent gap (pre-gap high of 8.30, yesterdays low 8.34).  Could rally to test 9.50 level again from here (also convergence with Melf's longer term descending trendline).  Might not be a bad trade with a stop just below 8.30.

Good trading all

[carlosjulio]

Hello

Update for ESLR
I like this chat go up  let see what happen
I`m in stock at 8.80 stop 8.30 I buy the stock on friday let see.
Divergence  MACD (lolng divergence)




                                                      Year-to-Date
                                   Quarter Ended       Period Ended
                                 October  September October  September
                                    1,       30,       1,       30,
                                    2005      2006     2005      2006
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

Revenues:
Product revenues                $11,092   $36,231  $32,059   $69,846
Research revenues                    94       215      328       894
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

Total revenues                    11,186    36,446   32,387    70,740
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

Cost of revenue:
Product revenue costs             9,934    30,525   29,887    64,654
Research revenue costs               94       215      328       895
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------
Total cost of revenue             10,028    30,740   30,215    65,549
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

Gross margin                       1,158     5,706    2,172     5,191
Operating expenses (1):
Research and development
  expenses                         2,971     4,662    7,709    12,813
Selling, general and
  administrative expenses          3,115     5,121    8,067    15,917
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

Total operating expenses           6,086     9,783   15,776    28,730
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

Operating loss                    (4,928)   (4,077) (13,604)  (23,539)

Other income (loss)                   55      (698)     696       753
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

Net loss before minority
interest                         (4,873)   (4,775) (12,908)  (22,786)

Minority interest in EverQ loss
(income)                            310      (828)     633     1,584
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

Net loss attributable to common
stockholders                     (4,563)   (5,603) (12,275)  (21,202)
                                 ======== ========= ======== =========


Net loss per share attributable
to common stockholders (basic
and diluted)                     $(0.07)   $(0.08)  $(0.21)   $(0.33)

Weighted average shares used in
computing basic and diluted net
loss per share attributable to
common stockholders              61,178    66,127   59,049    65,229


                                                      Year-to-Date
                                   Quarter Ended       Period Ended
                                 October  September October  September
                                    1,       30,       1,       30,
(1) Includes the following
amounts related to equity
awards (in thousands):             2005      2006     2005      2006
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

   Cost of product revenues           $-      $117       $-      $355
   Research and development
    expenses                           -       330        -     1,115
   Selling, general and
    administrative expenses            -       608        -     2,598
               
Evergreen Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: ESLR - News)
                Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets
                  (in thousands, except share data)
                             (unaudited)


                                            December 31, September 30,
                                               2005          2006
                                            ------------ -------------
Assets
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents                      $30,742       $34,254
Marketable securities                           85,465        55,643
Accounts receivable, net of allowances for
  doubtful accounts and sales discounts of
  $65 and $150 at December 31, 2005 and
  September 30, 2006, respectively                4,124        22,826
Grants receivable                               16,295        18,107
Inventory                                        3,634        12,420
Interest receivable                                541           700
Other current assets                             4,052        18,738
                                            ------------ -------------
  Total current assets                          144,853       162,688

Deposits on fixed assets under construction       8,217         1,596
Restricted cash                                   1,582           795
Long-term investments                                 -           986
Deferred financing costs                          2,877         2,545
Fixed assets, net                                71,430       142,521
                                            ------------ -------------

Total assets                                   $228,959      $311,131
                                            ============ =============

Liabilities, minority interest and
stockholders' equity
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable                               $12,210       $11,832
Short-term borrowings                            4,131        38,676
Other accrued expenses                           1,625        28,780
Accrued employee compensation                    1,778         2,523
Accrued warranty                                   705         1,123
                                            ------------ -------------
  Total current liabilities                      20,449        82,934

Subordinated convertible notes                   90,000        90,000
Deferred grants                                  16,284        24,316
Other long-term debt                              3,553        16,152
                                            ------------ -------------
Total liabilities                               130,286       213,402

Minority interest in EverQ                       11,223        10,354

Stockholders' equity:
Common stock, $0.01 par value, 100,000,000
shares authorized, 61,965,231 and
67,928,659 issued and outstanding at
December 31, 2005 and September 30, 2006,
respectively                                       620           680
Additional paid-in capital                      182,345       201,113
Accumulated deficit                             (93,009)     (114,211)
Deferred compensation                            (1,036)            -
Accumulated other comprehensive loss             (1,470)         (207)
                                            ------------ -------------

  Total stockholders' equity                     87,450        87,375
                                            ------------ -------------

Total liabilities, minority interest and
stockholders' equity                          $228,959      $311,131
                                            ============ =============

About Evergreen Solar, Inc.
Evergreen Solar, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets solar power products using proprietary, low-cost manufacturing technologies. The Company's patented crystalline silicon technology, known as String Ribbon, uses significantly less silicon than conventional approaches. Evergreen Solar's products provide reliable and environmentally clean electric power for residential and commercial applications globally. For more information about the
During the third quarter of 2006:
•   Product revenues increased 227 percent to $36.2 million from $11.1 million in the third quarter of 2005, with sales of product manufactured at the first EverQ factory - EverQ-1 - in Germany contributing approximately $25.4 million of the total revenue and over 22 percent gross margin, including 31 percent gross margin for the month of September.
•   EverQ-1 ramped to full production capacity in the third quarter. As a result, EverQ achieved profitability for the third quarter of approximately $2.3 million.
•   EverQ's second factory - EverQ-2 - broke ground in the quarter and is on track to begin production in the second quarter of 2007, and should reach full capacity by the end of 2007.
"Evergreen Solar continued to execute on all major initiatives in the third quarter," said Richard M. Feldt, President and Chief Executive Officer. "We completed the ramp to full production at the first EverQ factory one quarter ahead of schedule - progressing from groundbreaking to full capacity and profitability in 15 months. We finalized the long-term polysilicon supply, license and technology transfer agreements related to EverQ's partnership, subject to the receipt of regulatory approval. These agreements strengthen our ability to leverage the advantages of our String Ribbon platform. Reflecting the partners' confidence in our String Ribbon technology, we broke ground for the second EverQ factory well before executing the agreements for expanding EverQ." "In Marlboro, we made substantial progress on our Quad Ribbon furnace development to the point where we believe it is likely that the next EverQ expansion - EverQ-3 - will be designed around that new four-ribbon furnace. Additionally, we successfully introduced in Marlboro a new cell fabrication process that increases cell efficiency to just over 14.5 percent, which brings us very close to the industry median." "Third-quarter EverQ revenues exceeded our expectations as we quickly brought the full facility online," Feldt said. "In the fourth quarter, we will be converting the entire EverQ factory to thin wafer production. We believe the combination of this conversion with other manufacturing enhancements will enable us to improve our silicon productivity to less than six grams per watt by year end."
Third-Quarter 2006 Financial Results
Product revenues increased 227 percent to $36.2 million from $11.1 million in the third quarter of 2005, with sales of product manufactured at the first EverQ facility in Germany contributing approximately $25.4 million of the total revenue. Gross margin for the third quarter was 15.7 percent, compared with 10.4 percent for the third quarter a year ago and 4.1 percent for the second quarter of 2006. The increase in product gross margin was expected and primarily resulted from the incremental volume in EverQ production and sales. Net loss attributable to common stockholders for the third quarter of 2006 was $5.6 million, or $0.08 per share. This figure includes the write-off of manufacturing equipment obsoleted by the implementation of new technology at Marlboro amounting to approximately $550,000. This compares with a net loss of $4.6 million, or $0.07 per share, for the third quarter of 2005 and a net loss of $7.5 million, or $0.11 per share, for the second quarter of 2006. Evergreen Solar recorded equity-based compensation expenses of approximately $1.1 million during the third quarter of 2006.
Business Outlook
"Through the EverQ partnership, we have captured the initial promise of our String Ribbon technology and demonstrated that it is exportable, scalable and profitable - at 30MW," Feldt said. "As a result of our accomplishments to date, we have created a clear path to grow the EverQ business to roughly 10 times its current size, generating 300MW of solar production by 2010. Based on our technological capabilities and additional growth opportunities, we believe Evergreen Solar is strongly positioned to be in the forefront of helping the solar industry achieve economic parity with retail grid electricity."
2006 Guidance and EverQ Accounting Clarification
With the signing of the EverQ partnership agreements, and after receipt of German regulatory approval, Evergreen Solar, Q-Cells and REC will become equal partners in EverQ. As a result, all three partners will share equally in the net income generated by the partnership, and Evergreen Solar will adopt the equity method of accounting for its share of EverQ results. Evergreen Solar will continue to market and sell all modules manufactured by EverQ under the Evergreen Solar brand, as well as manage customer relationships and contracts. However, the Company will no longer report gross revenue or cost of goods sold resulting from the sale of EverQ's module production. Despite this change in accounting for product revenue, there will be no change in Evergreen Solar's economic value realized from the EverQ partnership - the Company will still report one-third of EverQ's profit. Evergreen Solar anticipates quarterly revenue from product manufactured at its Marlboro facility to continue in the $10 to $12 million range for the foreseeable future including the fourth quarter of 2006. The Company expects EverQ's fourth-quarter revenue to be in the $20 to $25 million range. Gross margin at Evergreen Solar's Marlboro facility will likely be in the range of 5 to 15 percent for the foreseeable future, as ongoing development of new technology initiatives in Marlboro will continue to consume capacity and limit gross margins. However, actual gross margins in Marlboro could vary widely from this range depending on the timing and extent of the deployment of new technology initiatives. For the fourth quarter of 2006, EverQ gross margin is expected to be sequentially flat compared with the third quarter of 2006, despite costs associated with the complete conversion to the thin ribbon platform, as well as other near-term technology enhancements.
2007 Guidance
In 2007, in addition to reporting revenue from its Marlboro facility, the Company plans to report additional line items for revenue derived from EverQ. Evergreen Solar will separately report the fees received from EverQ for the marketing and sale of EverQ modules by the Company. In addition, the Company will separately report revenues derived from payments by EverQ for the Company's R&D efforts on behalf of EverQ, and revenues derived from royalty payments for its ongoing technology contribution to EverQ. These EverQ-related revenues are expected to total approximately $10 million to $15 million in 2007. For 2007, Evergreen Solar expects revenue from EverQ-1 to be in a range of $100 to $125 million (assuming current exchange rates) as it completes the transition to the thin ribbon platform by the first quarter of 2007 and plans to add approximately 5 MW of incremental capacity at that plant by the second quarter of 2007. The Company anticipates that EverQ-2 will commence volume shipments during the second quarter of 2007, and should reach full manufacturing capacity by the fourth quarter of 2007. EverQ-2 is expected to generate revenue in the range of $60 to $75 million (assuming current exchange rates) in 2007. Although it will not be reflected in Evergreen Solar's reported revenue in the future, the Company believes that separately reporting the combined revenues of EverQ, which in 2007 is expected to be a one-third owned unconsolidated subsidiary of Evergreen Solar, with Evergreen Solar's own revenue is useful to investors as it shows the true market penetration of Evergreen Solar's String Ribbon technology. Combined EverQ and Evergreen Solar world-wide product revenue in 2007, which incorporates Evergreen Solar's proprietary String Ribbon technology, are expected be in the range of approximately $200 to $250 million.


For more  www.evergreensolar.com.

[snowcat]

Some of the thinking is that with elections coming up in the US on 11/7, the administration has been keeping down the oil prices.  If this is the case, then oil prices will resume their higher price after the election and alternative energy will once again be in vogue.

ESLR and SPWR are two to watch.  You might also want to look at the ethanol stocks, but with the high production costs, the inefficiency of the product and the destructive properties of ethanol (to an engine) it might not be the way to go.

[Se7en]

Please use the 'Search' before opening new threads, there are already 4 threads about ESLR! 


http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3373.0
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4729.0
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4683.0
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=231.0

[nullzero]

ESLR is looking better by the day. If the democrats win the election we may see lots of money moving back into alternative energy. May buy ESLR next week, it looks like it has bottomed out.

[ScottishTrader]

I am also liking the look of ESLR at these levels.  Friday's doji is very interesting as it clearly defines support and resistance an should give us an indicator as to whether ESLR wants to rebound from these levels or put in a new downawrd move.  Friday's low was 7.87, a penny below thursday's low of 7.88.  The high was 8.19, exactly the same as Thursday's.  Technically, a print of either 8.20 or 7.86 would give us a fairly clear buy or sell signal.

More broadly, ESLR has been moving in an extended downward channel over the last 9 months.  We had a recent bounce off the bottom of that channel and an attempt to test the top of it which failed due to overhang resistance above 9.50.  It is entirely possible that ESLR will try and test the bottom of the channel again, however I think that is unlikely - there is a nice positive divergence in the MACD, and a look at the 2 year weekly chart shows solid support from the first 9 months of 2005 coming in around the 7.25 area.  Also, looking at the MACD histo and CCI on the weekly chart both show clear positive divergences, with the MACD histo about to cross into positive territory.

it is clear from recent PR that things are getting moving for ESLR, having recently garnered some big contracts, with the potential for more on the way.  The recent big gap up proved that there is real enthusiasm for this stock, and while they are still making a loss, revs are up significantly and I think there is clear potential for solar technology in the current energy concious environment.  I think solar is a great play, and ESLR is the kind of stock that I would like to have in my portfolio for ethical reasons (I know, ethical reasons don't necessarily make you money).  In the 80s my father ran a solar heating business in Scotland, and the panel he designed back then is still considered one of the most efficient solar hot water panels around.  In fact the company as it is now is in talks to be taken over by one of the larger energy companies in the UK.  I know that this is largely irrelevant to ESLR, but my point is that there is a real paradigm shift going on and big energy is definitely waking up to the importance of alternative energy in their energy production mix.

ESLR is already trading up at 8.38 in friday's aftermarket, so it will be interesting to see if this is sustained on Monday (an open above 8.30, the bottom of the recent gap would be positive).  20,000 shares traded in a bit of a flurry from 6:45pm, so possibly someone accumulating a block position after hours (not really sure).  But an opening around here would be a strong sign that Friday's doji is a reversal candle, and I would expect this move to run up to 9.50 at least.  Whether it breaks through this resistance remains to be seen, but what I would really be interested in is whether ESLR can break though the channel and above resistance at 10.25. 

[ScottishTrader]

Well ESLR sure got a good bounce off that doji candle - big gap up and a huge volume day definitely suggests something is up.  I finally got my funds cleared half way through the day so picked up a small position at 8.57.  Looking to add to it in the next couple of days.  Price held up above 13ema and 20sma, looking for continuation above 50sma tomorrow.  ESLR needs to push back up above 9.50 before it starts to look really bullish.  For now my stop is just below the gap, at 8.17.