TCHC

[buddjas1]

Company – 21st Century Holding Co. (ticker: TCHC) is an insurance company that is based in Florida.  http://www.21stcenturyholding.com/

Summary – Probably 3SOF worthy.  Perfect combination of technical and fundamental analyses.  Current price is $26.70.  Fair value short term is well over $40.  Could go much higher as FY07 projections come to fruition. There is also a quarterly dividend.

Financials - (all in US$)

Period       Revenue            Income             EPS **

FY07E                                                      $4.00-5.00

FY06E                                                      $3.10-3.20
4Q06E                                                   >$0.68
3Q06        $24,770,000      $ 3,029,285      $0.40
2Q06        $32,342,094      $ 8,904,559      $1.19
1Q06        $35,609,073      $ 6,013,312      $0.83

FY05                                                       $1.68
4Q05        $24,502,000      $ 1,419,000      $0.21
3Q05       $23,655,568       $ 1,852,718      $0.28
2Q05        $24,645,557      $ 3,023,541      $0.46
1Q05        $21,867,000      $ 4,786,000      $0.73
**fully diluted, continuing operations only

http://www.21stcenturyholding.com/repindex.cfm
http://www.21stcenturyholding.com/press2.cfm?id=1164

Chart –  Speaks for itself. 

[David Randolph]

Indeed, it looks interesting buddjas1, despite the low average volume. I wonder why the sudden revenue and EPS decline in Q3? Another thing that I'm not a big fan of is the fact that they already splashed their estimates on several press releases. Also, the earnings multiple of the Property & Casualty Insurance industry is kind of low, at 11, so not such a huge discount at TCHC, trading at estimated 8.6 times earnings.

You're right, the stock looks undervalued, but not terribly so.

Thanks for the tip buddjas1

[Ares]

On paper, I'm in at 11.33 (9.43ET) for a daytrade because it had a positive open price signal and bounced off the 0.50 fibonacci retracement of the 1 minute chart.

Fibonacci extention 1 minute targets are:

11.79

12.15

12.71

13.64

15.14

17.53


It stalled at  the 11.79 target (out in here), went up to 11.85 and started going down.

Currently, it's trading below the lower support line of  Andrew's pitchfork.

I wonder where shorts will buy to cover.

Looking at the 5 minute fibonacci extentions and waiting for a 5 minute close above the 8 ema while it is still at least 2.5% above the open.

In again at 11.26 (1 cent above the refreshing 11.25 bid)

Targets:

11.40
11.50
11.67
11.94
12.39

exit signal will be a close below the 1 minute 8 ema.

Out at 11.40

[David Randolph]

I guess I was right in being suspicious about the company crying out loud about their huge guidance, since they cut EPS estimates from $4.5 to $2. And I don't believe they can make $2:

• UPDATE - 21st Century Holding slashes '07 view; shares plunge
at Reuters (Thu 7:33pm)

The stock is down 42% today

The reasons they gave for cutting guidance that much are pretty serious Ares. They made just $0.1 EPS in Q1, they'll need luck to make $0.4 in full year 2007, and that means this stock will probably go down to about $4 over the medium term, since the Property & Casualty Insurance industry average earnings multiple is 10.4.

Good luck on your day trade Ares.