Hrb for aggressive option buyer

[akclide]

HRB is announcing the earnings after the close today.It is expected to loose .32.Whisper on the street is a loss of .34. 52 wk high is 25.75 and current price around 23.9.Todays volume is starting out to be lot less than usual by this time of the day. I expect the volume to come up around last qtr. of the day.The stock is overbought.One month up trend around 15 % ( not sustainable).Although there is a lot of support below but at the same time the expectations for stock to beat seems to be high.Even a little disapointment from this stock,which has a history of disapointments will give the put buyer to make some money.My opinion and I bought some put.

[akclide]

The loss was .49.Missed it by a mile .

[Samantha Stephens]

Boy this is a head scratcher isn't it?? Should have been a brilliant/textbook trade.for both puts and or shorting the stock. Maybe people will come to their senses tomorrow and get your puts in the money. I don't get the up move ... do you?? From my read on the news ... this thing should be falling out of bed.
-Samantha

[akclide]

Yes you are absolutely right.It is not that it is not going down but if you see the volume after hour there is not much interest.I am almost positive it starts it's downward trend tomorrow morning.I am expecting about 10% downward move. Currently it is showing .02 in the red AH.Institutions and Mutual funds hold 92% of the shares.That is why we have not seen panic selling.One of those 374 institutions will most likely start some selling in the morning and then we may see some thinning of the holdings.
That is what I think and believe. Reality may be different and if it is I will be surprised and obviously dis appointed.

[Samantha Stephens]

OK - giving you a  for this one.
I'm just glad I didn't see it till after hours. I totally would have been in there with you!!!! Even if you end up being wrong ... I still think you were right to have done the trade. I know that doesn't count for much.

And, I think you're right about the after hours and what should happen in the morning. I've got it on my watch list.

For god sake -- they can't even do their own taxes right!!!!
Makes no sense. Tomorrow will be telling.

Hey - while you're here. I was just curious about the strategies you employ with options? Do you always play earnings ... or just for sure earnings ... um ... like this one should have been! Have you ever done anything really cool in the final week of expiration ... I have this dream that I'll someday be able to pick up a nickel option on google on the last day (in one direction or the other) and then it will blast through and run like $20 bucks and I'll be able to hire a maid... forever... It's a fantasy... I know.
And ... when you use options, do you have any guidelines about how far in the future, deltas ... do you only buy calls or puts ... or do you do fancy things like iron condors ... butterflys ... spreads... Just curious...
-Samantha

[akclide]

I have been in the stock market about 12 years or so and I have lost a lot of money buyin naked calls and puts.My dreams of become very rich buying and selling stocks went out the door long time ago.Trading keeps me alert so I keep doing it.My theory always has been why make a bed when you got to sleep in it again and God made paper plates for a reason so I have never needed a maid.Lately I have found myselp working on shorter term goals by trading with abase amount and pulling everything over it out of the trading account end of every month,Seems to be working very well.
Any more I only buy options when I am fairly positive that it will go in my favour.Usually like to keep 45 days + in my hand and always buy in the money.$5 days gives me time to make adjustments when I am wrong.In the money lets me pay a lot less time premium.I only do naked callds and puts, but most of my money I keep in stocks.
Give you an example I am currently holding these options.

vlo JAN CALL CURRENTLY BREAK EVEN
ELN dec. call b/e
dbrn  jan call in green
hrb jan call we shell see
wfr dec call currently green
Smti dec call red
dndn jan call red
Amzn dec put red
                             

[Samantha Stephens]

Thanks for the information and the look at your options portfolio. It's very helpful ... I'm thinking "go out of business" thoughts to help your HRB options.
-Sam