DECK

[fill_the_gap.]

Way Undervalued.

Buying DECK and Calls.

[fill_the_gap.]

Buying.

Calls also look great !

Do the DD.  All negative factored in a month ago.

Up from here.

[Ramsburg]

Hi Jeff,

Theres no need to post this message on severall boards.

[David Randolph]

... the chart is in a downtrend. Good luck 

[AussieTrader]

Well a gap fill potential play if ever I saw one. Triple bottom test down at $21, support around $25 zone, 1 day red to $30 gap to $35.

[rocket8]

nice pick
why does DECK have such a huge short interest?
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=&time=&freq=

-rocket8

[rocket8]

interesting financial note:  sketcher's (SKX) PE ratio is double DECKS.
maybe DECK has room upwards.

[rocket8]

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/pom/pomrmy/10227171.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

thoughts on this negative article on DECK ?

[Melf Elf]

Well a gap fill potential play if ever I saw one.

DECK is shaping up nicely for your rally toward the gap.

We're now 50 trading days beyond the gap down, so the 50DMA is flattening out, currently at 23.66.   The bottom of the recent bull flag is slightly below that, say 23.50iish.  Volume during the bull flag formation is low, which is good.

I'd like to see DECK hammer off the bottom of the bull flag and 50DMA, then take out the top of the bull flag for a second bullish pattern breakout.  There's plenty of running room between here and the gap for a nice rally.

Sorry, you have to use the horizontal scroll bar below the chart to see the bull flag formation.

[Melf Elf]

It also could be that DECK put in a low on Friday, and that it's going to break out of this little Symmetrical Triangle (chart below).  I guess that would make sense from a fractal standpoint (repeating patterns).  Big Symmetrical Triangle...Little Symmetrical Triangle.

In either case, the scenario in the post above and this one both are bullish on a pattern breakout.  Taking out the down trendline from the recent June 23 top will tell us which pattern it is, if/when it breaks out.

[Melf Elf]

It also could be that DECK put in a low on Friday, and that it's going to break out of this little Symmetrical Triangle (chart below).  I guess that would make sense from a fractal standpoint (repeating patterns).  Big Symmetrical Triangle...Little Symmetrical Triangle.

It was the Symmetrical Triangle.

[Melf Elf]

DECK re-tested the tops of both Symmetrical Triangles near yesterday's open.  Former resistance should provide support.  It did.  DECK rallied from the triangle tops and put in a bullish engulfing pattern on the day, up $0.77. 

Nice chart action so far, confirming the two bullish pattern breakouts. 

[Melf Elf]

Follow-thru to the upside, after Thursday's double re-test of the triangle breakouts.

[baltojohn2003]

Melf Elf,

On 05/20/05, Forbes Special Situation Survey recommended  DECK @ $22.66 as a "VALUE" play and expected it to rise to $35 within two years.. Does your TA (Symmetrical Triangles etc. ) indicate that now is a good entry point and perhaps it would be sooner than two years before it reaches $30 or $35?

             Thanks,

                          baltojohn2003

[Melf Elf]

Melf Elf,

On 05/20/05, Forbes Special Situation Survey recommended  DECK @ $22.66 as a "VALUE" play and expected it to rise to $35 within two years.. Does your TA (Symmetrical Triangles etc. ) indicate that now is a good entry point and perhaps it would be sooner than two years before it reaches $30 or $35?

             Thanks,

                          baltojohn2003

Baltojohn,

$30-$35 in two years seems very reasonable, based on the chart.  The April 21, 2005 gap down (see gap area on the chart) was from a $34.16 close the day before, and the print  low on April 18, prior to the gap down, was $33.06.  Those are right in the middle-to-high end of the range that you mention.

What I liked so much about this chart when Aussietrader presented it, was the fact that it was building a nice pattern from which to breakout and attack that $33.00 gap area.  I liked the second pattern breakout on July5 even more, and I REALLY liked that successful re-test of the double breakout at $24.30 last Thursday morning.  $

$24.30 was "the perfect entry" into the stock, if there is such a thing as "a perfect entry."    The chart was saying, "I've broken out of two bullish patterns, and now I've come back and successfully re-tested the down trendlines from BOTH breakouts.  What more do you want?" 

It's acting very well, technically, but as we've seen many times, these patterns can "morph" (or, change) into something else.  If you re-read my charts on this thread from last weekend, for example, I was trying to figure out if the second pattern was going to be a bull flag, or another symmetrical triangle breakout.     The July 5 upside breakout of the down trendline told the tale:  it was a symmetrical triangle breakout, a "fractal" (repeating pattern) of the larger symmetrical triangle breakout.

The chart now needs to take out $26.08 to the upside.  That was the June 23 high of the little Ascending Triangle.  If that doesn't happen, and the stock heads down, the recent pattern could "morph" (change) into something else.  We'll just have to watch it.

As long as the stock remains above the breakouts, the larger Ascending Triangle target of $29.25 is IN PLAY.  That's just a target that we're aiming for.  Sometimes stocks fall short of targets, sometimes the targets are exceeded which, in this case, would mean that DECK would continue higher to fill that gap area beginning at $33.00.

That was the long answer to your question.     Short answer: as the chart stands, I'd expect to see at least $29.25 by the end of September of this year.

As far as an entry point is concerned, for me, that's always predicated on being able to structure a good risk/reward on the trade, based on what the chart is indicating.  Since $29.25 is IN PLAY, from Friday's close of 25.80, the reward is 11.8%.  It would be much more if DECK goes up and fills the gap starting at the $33.00 area, but I use the pattern measurement as the target, then see what develops as we go along.

If the reward is 11.8%, I don't like to risk more than half that, or 5.9%, so that my risk:reward always is at least a 1:2 ratio.  I prefer 1:3, or better.

A 5.9% loss on an entry of 25.80 (Friday's close) is a price of $24.28, which is two cents below Thursday's low (24.30), which was the successful double re-test of the two pattern breakouts.  That works out, since it's a "logical stop," meaning that it makes sense to put the stop there.   $24.30 "should be" support now.  If it isn't, you probably want to get out of the stock and protect yourself while it "morphs" into something else.   

Sorry for the long answer, but beyond analyzing a chart, I think that it can be very difficult trying to figure out how to play it so that you're stacking the odds in your favor (risk/reward) of having a successful trade.  Where to enter?  Why?  Where's my stop?  Why is that my stop?  Is the market likely to react by selling, for example, if $24.30 support gets broken?  I think so, because that important successful re-test last Thursday no longer would be successful 

Good luck with your trading!