FRPT

[setravis]

Force Protection Shares Bounce...(FRPT)
30% on CEO Comments
Friday's session saw a selloff in the waning hours of the market
as investors continued to be timid following the rise in consumer
prices which could bolster the probability of a recession in the
coming months and also the chance of another interest rate cut
by the Fed at next month's meeting.
In the small cap space, one Cinderella story turned disaster released news which attempted to set
the record straight. Force Protection Inc. (FRPT) which saw shares reach highs in the $30's have
seen a steady decline following reports of the armed forces cutting back on their orders for the
Company's Mine Resistant Armed Vehicles (MRAP).
Army Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno said in a statement to the military newspaper Stars and Stripes,
"The number of brigades will reduce in the coming months and that reduces the need for the original
higher number (MRAP's)."
The Defense Department had originally ordered some 15,000 vehicles, of which 10,000 were to be
supplied through efforts from Force Protection. The multitude of roadside bombs and mounting casualties
caused the Marines to ask for more MRAP's in 2005. The government and military proceeded
to meet that need and have since seen the fighting in Iraq subside causing the lowered demand in
the vehicles.
Following the report of decreased orders, shares of FRPT fell from $25 in October to their close of
$5.26 on Thursday. Friday saw shares gained some of that market share back following a message
on the Company's website.
In the message, CEO Gordon McGilton said, "While it is generally not the policy of the Company
to comment on rumors or speculation regarding the Company, we believe that we need to address
significant misinformation about the Company and to update our shareholders on Force Protection's
financial posture and dispel unfounded rumors amongst the shareholder base, the investment community,
and elsewhere."
"The Company's current cash position is strong with over $60 million in liquid assets, virtually no
debt, and a significant capacity to access debt capital as necessary," continued McGilton in the letter,
"Requirements will rise and fall by theater, month-to-month, but until MRAP vehicles are integrated
into all service units in significant numbers, the attacks will persist. We have just begun to make an
impact, not completed the task.
McGilton went on to say that the concerns about investments in the development of their next generation
product, Cheetah, were shortsighted.
"We are confident that the attributes of our Cheetah vehicle are consistent with those cited by senior
military officials who set the requirements for the next generation of tactical, wheeled, blast and
ballistic protected vehicles. These qualities and features, along with the existence of an operating
manufacturing facility to produce them, once again puts Force Protection in an excellent position going
forward," noted McGilton in the message.
Investors responded with a renewed sense of optimism as shares gained over 30% on 15 million
shares traded. But as McGilton noted, requirements will rise and fall by theater. With the Iraq Theater
coming into the twilight of its existence, will their products be in such high demand? Probably not, but
as McGilton also noted, MRAP vehicles have to be integrated into all services for proper preparation
of another war which is certain to come. With that in mind, investors would be wise to watch

[la-onda]

nice article about naked shorting:

http://www.buyins.com/frptshortsqueeze12-14-07.pdf

[la-onda]

also for all "free" 3SoF members:
nice article about naked shorting:

http://www.buyins.com/frptshortsqueeze12-14-07.pdf

[la-onda]

FRPT: Friedman Cuts to Underperform from Outperform; Cuts Tgt to $3 vs $25; Analyst Notes
Monday , December 17, 2007 16:09ET

Issuer: Force Protection, Inc (NasdaqSC: FRPT)

Analyst Firm:  Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc.

Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE

Current Rating: Underperform (from Outperform)

Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $3.00 (-88.00% from $25.00)

Analyst Comments: Following recent conversations with contacts on the mine resistant ambush protected (MRAP) vehicle program, the firm feels more bad news could be on the way for Force Protection. Historically, the primary criterion for MRAP awards has been production capabilities. They understand, however, that the criteria for the next round of awards might shift to a focus on vehicle commonality and long-term logistics costs. Although this is speculative, they estimate that the majority of this week's MRAP awards will go to only two companies, and FRPT could potentially receive a smaller order than we had originally projected. Previously, the firm believed that FRPT might win as much as 40.0%or more of this award. As a result, the firm is loweirng their rating to Underperform.

[waxweazle]

Long-term needs lessen, but vehicles still sought


Digg del.icio.us Newsvine Reddit FacebookWhat's this?By Tom Vanden Brook, USA TODAY
BAGHDAD — When the new Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle rolled over a roadside bomb on Thanksgiving, the explosion shredded the right front tire, gouged the passenger door, destroyed the radiator and shattered the windshield's thick ballistic glass.
But Army Sgt. Peter Rosie, perched atop the vehicle in the gunner's turret, survived with only a minor concussion. No one else was hurt; Rosie returned to duty.

Rosie, 45, a New York City firefighter who re-enlisted after the 9/11 attacks, was glad he had not been in an armored Humvee, the standard combat vehicle since early in the Iraq war. "There would have been a lot more damage," he says. "I might have been killed. The MRAP saved my life."

MRAPs are designed to save lives. Their chassis, high off the ground, and their V-shaped hulls deflect the explosive force of roadside bombs away from the vehicles' occupants. Such bombs, often called improvised explosive devices (IEDs), account for at least 60% of U.S. combat deaths in Iraq, the Pentagon says.

In the past few weeks, the Marines have determined they need fewer MRAPs, and the Army has indicated it will probably follow, mostly because violence is down in Iraq and counterinsurgency efforts are taking hold. Where deployed, MRAPs are helping to tamp down IED attacks by making it safe for troops to move deeper into neighborhoods to find IEDs and the insurgents who plant them, officers in the field say. A USA TODAY team embedded with combat units here in early December found that the news from the Pentagon had not dampened the demand for MRAPs on the front lines.

FIND MORE STORIES IN: Iraq | Baghdad | Pentagon | Marines | Infantry | Brigade | IEDS | MRAPS | MRAP | IED
Troops here will soon be getting more. The military services have ordered 8,815 MRAPs from four companies, and about 2,500 of them have been manufactured. Only 916 have been fielded in Iraq, according to the Marine Corps Systems Command, which coordinates the vehicles' development for the Pentagon. The Pentagon's goal is to have 1,500 MRAPs in Iraq by the end of the year.

Even with factories running flat out, it still takes a week, on average, to produce a vehicle like the one that saved Rosie. USA TODAY, in examining what it takes to get the new vehicles to troops in the field, found that bottlenecks lurk everywhere in the production process. Navistar's International Military and Government division, which made Rosie's MRAP, buys components from at least eight states and several foreign countries, including armor from Israel and tires from France.

The 4th Infantry Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division, Rosie's unit, was the first Army infantry outfit to receive MRAPs. That's because its need was greatest and its casualties were high, says Col. Ricky Gibbs, its commander. The brigade lost 19 soldiers in June alone, 20% of the U.S. deaths reported countrywide that month. The troops patrol what were once some of southern Baghdad's most deadly neighborhoods, where large, deeply buried IEDs were commonplace.

Gibbs, whose brigade received its first MRAPs in October, now wants to swap out most of his Humvees for MRAPs. "The MRAP gives confidence to your soldiers," as well as protection on patrols, he says.

His 5,400 troops already are seeing positive results, Gibbs says. They are getting more tips from local residents about possible bombmakers. There are fewer IEDs, fewer casualties and a greater sense of security in the area, he says.

"I wish we'd had the MRAP a lot sooner," Gibbs says.

Gibbs didn't see MRAPs sooner because the vehicles' path to Iraq has been tortuous. The vehicles, first requested in early 2005, were blocked at first by top officials, both military and civilian, who were certain the war would be a short one.

More recently the MRAPs have been delayed by the logistical difficulties of manufacturing trucks tough enough to withstand bombs that have become bigger, more sophisticated and more deadly.

The program gathered momentum only after Robert Gates replaced Donald Rumsfeld as Defense secretary late last year. Gates designated MRAPs as the Pentagon's top priority in May and ordered expedited production.

And, despite the recent notices that overall requirements will be cut — as many as 15,000 were once contemplated — Gates' spokesman Geoff Morrell said last week that MRAPs remain a major priority. "As it stands right now, we continue to buy as many MRAPs as can be produced, and that has not changed."

'Not business-as-usual'

MRAPs for Gibbs' brigade came from a company that didn't even make the vehicles at this time last year. For a long time, in fact, only one U.S. company made MRAPs. That pioneer, Force Protection Inc. of Ladson, S.C., was instrumental in proving the value of MRAPs but ran behind its production targets in 2005 and 2006.

Gates' decision to boost MRAP production changed the industry. On June 1, he gave the program a top priority rating to guarantee manufacturers access to critical material such as axles and armor.

John Young, undersecretary of Defense, last month praised the manufacturers for doing their best "to accelerate MRAP vehicle deliveries," even buying materials before receiving contracts. "This is not a business-as-usual process."

Exhibit A of the accelerated process: the MRAP that saved Rosie's life on Thanksgiving — MaxxPro Registration No. NZ1J83.

Officials at International first considered developing what turned into the MaxxPro after seeing similar vehicles at a convention in October 2006, president Archie Massicotte says. International won its first significant MRAP contract, worth $623 million, for 1,200 vehicles in May. Its MRAP plant in West Point, Miss., is on track to build nearly 3,000 by April 2008.

No. NZ1J83's journey to Iraq started about three months ago in Garland, Texas, when its chassis started down the line. Workers took the 7000-series chassis, normally used for commercial vehicles such as dump trucks, and attached a cab also made in Garland.

Under the hood, they installed engines from a company factory in Melrose Park, Ill. On each wheel, their power wrenches twisted the lug nuts for Michelin tires from France.

Young told the House Armed Services Committee last month that supply problems have dogged MRAPs. In August, the Pentagon said it was seeking an additional tiremaker; at that point only Michelin tires fit MRAPs. In January, the Pentagon expects to expand tire capacity to 17,000 a month; a new supplier, Goodyear, has joined the MRAP program, Young said.

From Texas, the frames for the MaxxPro are trucked 570 miles east to International's Mississippi plant. There, 753 workers on two assembly lines now bolt on the vehicle's thick armor, which comes from Plasan Sasa of Kibbutz Sasa, Israel. In the vehicle's windows, they place ballistic glass from another Israeli company, Oran Safety Glass.

Workers also spray the vehicles with desert brown paint and back them onto flat-bed tractor-trailer trucks bound for Charleston, S.C., and the Navy's Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center, where electronic equipment is added.

This extra equipment can jack up the price of a Category I MRAP, such as the MaxxPro or Force Protection's Cougar, from its $528,000 base price by as much as another $522,000. At least 11 pieces of this gear — radios, anti-IED jammers, and global positioning systems — come from manufacturers in states from Texas to Massachusetts.

Like 'Battlestar Galactica'

The next leg of No. NZIJ83's path to Iraq is equally daunting and expensive.

Quick turnarounds are the rule at the 16th Airlift Squadron at Charleston Air Force Base in South Carolina. On Nov. 30, a team from USA TODAY flew from Charleston to Baghdad's airport with a crew delivering MRAPs. It took airmen less than an hour to roll three International MRAPs into the cargo bay of a C-17, one of the Air Force's largest cargo planes, and anchor them to the jet's floor with chains for takeoff to Iraq.

The cost to fly each MRAP from Charleston to Iraq: $135,000, Pentagon budget documents show. The Pentagon will spend up to $750 million this year to deliver MRAPs from all four manufacturers — Force Protection, International, BAE Systems and General Dynamics Land Systems Canada — to the theater.

(Ships can hold more MRAPs, and per-vehicle costs would be far less — $18,000, Pentagon records show. But shipping MRAPs takes 30 days, while the airlift gets the vehicles to Iraq within a day. About 300 MRAPs are en route to Iraq on ships.)

The C-17 roared down the runway late in the afternoon. In the cockpit, Air Force pilots Maj. Scott Berndt and Capt. Zach Hall plotted a course for Nantucket, Mass., where they rendezvoused with a tanker for midair refueling. It was a tightly choreographed dance 20,000 feet above the Atlantic ocean. Under a moonless sky, Berndt and Hall caught sight of the KC-10, its lights blinking and fuel-spigot boom extended behind.

"It looks like Battlestar Galactica," Berndt said.

Hall and Berndt can nose their jet within 6 feet of the tanker. Any closer, and suction could pull the jets together and send them tumbling into the ocean. They took on fuel and began plotting their course across the Atlantic to an Air Force base in Europe. Another crew flew the final leg of the MRAPs' journey into Baghdad.

"We're not wasting any time getting these to the guys," Berndt said of the trip, which took 17 hours. "It means we don't have to do a medevac later on."

First Army unit with MRAPs

The 4th Infantry Brigade Combat Team was the second of the five "surge" brigades sent to Iraq earlier this year to bolster the counterinsurgency strategy pushed by Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq. Gibbs' mission at Forward Operating Base Falcon: securing one of the most restive parts of a fractious city.

In the spring and summer, soldiers fought from house to house in some areas as they vied with al-Qaeda militants for control of neighborhoods. The toll was high: 80 troops killed, 600 wounded, Gibbs says.

These days, Gibbs travels around south Baghdad in a customized MRAP that serves as a mobile command post. In it, he can view video imagery in real time from drones that fly overhead, looking for insurgents and IEDs. Gibbs can stay in touch with his staff at brigade headquarters and relay orders.

The new counterinsurgency strategy here divides neighborhoods by 15-foot-high concrete traffic barriers. Exit and entry are controlled at checkpoints, in an attempt to deny insurgents the ability to move the munitions needed to make IEDs. Troops in MRAPs also provide a 24-hour presence, often leaving their vehicles to talk with people in their homes or shops.

Capt. Joe Schwankhaus, who commands a company in Gibbs' brigade, says the MRAP "does a lot for the guys' mental state," he says. "It's a huge motivational thing."

The big trucks also confuse insurgents, who don't know how to attack them or even how many troops they can hold, he says. "It at least makes insurgents. .. think twice. They have to be asking themselves, 'What the hell is going to come out of these things?' "

Throughout Iraq, the number of IEDs is declining, but they remain deadly. In November, 25 of the 28 U.S. troops who died in combat were killed by IEDs, according to the Pentagon. So far, in December, seven of 10 combat deaths reported were blamed on IEDs.

Although proven lifesavers — only a few troops have been killed riding in MRAPs — the vehicles are not failsafe. Armor-penetrating explosives, called explosively formed penetrators, or EFPs, have breached them in Iraq.

Lt. Gen. Stephen Speakes, Army deputy chief of staff, says, "Whatever we put a soldier or Marine in, ultimately there is a bigger boom possible, something that can undo that particular design."

As the counterinsurgency strategy has brought relative security to parts of Iraq, new questions are being raised about MRAPs. Are they worth their price tag, $699,000 to $1.5 million each? And, in the long run, will they be of any use to the Marine Corps and the Army when the war in Iraq ends?

It is those considerations that have inspired both the Marine Corps and the Army to publicly discuss cutting their requirements.

On Nov. 30, Marine Corps Commandant James Conway said he would ask the Pentagon to cut the Corps' projected MRAP need to 2,300 vehicles from 3,700. On Dec. 8, Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, the No. 2 military commander in Iraq, said the Army will probably need fewer than the 10,000 vehicles it originally sought but he has not decided how many.

Gibbs acknowledges the MRAP's limitations. He says the vehicle's turret, which rides more than 12 feet above the road, can rip through the low-hanging electrical wires that hang over Iraqi streets.

Its many advantages, however, are also evident.

Spc. Brian Wilson, 22, says its height also allows the gunner to peer over concrete traffic barriers to see insurgent activity on the other side. "It's a good investment for the Army," he says. "It will save lives."

It already has. Gunner Rosie, a British citizen with a U.S. green card, has no doubt about that. As he thinks about returning home to New York and to his career as a firefighter, Rosie says, "Anything that can give us better protection is really appreciated. It shows that people back home care."

[waxweazle]

[TerryG]

If these are all of the December contracts FRPT just died, 4 in afterhours on heavy volume.


AP
Pentagon Buys 3,000 Armored Vehicles
Tuesday December 18, 6:09 pm ET
By Donna Borak, AP Business Writer

Pentagon Orders 3,000 Armored Vehicles From Four Suppliers

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Pentagon on Tuesday awarded a combined $2.66 billion deal to four manufacturers to build and deliver more than 3,000 bomb-resistant armored vehicles for U.S. soldiers in Iraq.
The winning vendors include Warrenville, Ill.-based Navistar International Corp., a subsidiary of International Military and Government LLC; Ladson, S.C.-based Force Protection Industries Inc., the North American subsidiary of British defense conglomerate BAE Systems Plc and Stewart & Stevenson Tactical Vehicle, a division of Armor Holdings Inc., which was acquired by BAE.

The orders included a $1.18 billion deal with Navistar International Corp. for 1,500 vehicles, a $377.8 million deal with Force Protection Industries Inc. for 358 vehicles, a $645.4 million deal with BAE Systems Inc. for 600 vehicles and a $458.1 million deal with Stewart & Stevenson Tactical Vehicle for 668 vehicles.

The latest order exceeds the $1.2 billion deal awarded in October to Force Protection, BAE Systems Inc. and Navistar to build and deliver 2,400 armored vehicles.

To date, the Pentagon has ordered nearly 12,000 vehicles from manufacturers.

The new vehicles will be delivered between June and July 2008, according to the Pentagon.

Wall Street analysts have expected an order of more than 3,000 mine-resistant, ambush-protected, or MRAP, vehicles to be distributed among Force Protection Inc., BAE Systems Inc. and Navistar International.

Force Protection's stock has been battered in recent weeks on concerns that the armored-vehicle maker would receive smaller-than-expected contracts from the U.S. military.

Also fueling fears are the Marines Corps' plans to reduce its requirement of the armored vehicle to 2,400 from the planned 3,700. And while senior Army officials have yet to revise their current strategy to purchase less than 10,000 vehicles, some adjustment is expected.

Shares of Force Protection fell $1.23, or 21.8 percent, to $4.64 in extended-trading, after falling 5 cents to close at $5.91.

Shares of Navistar fell $1.65, or 3.2 percent, to close at $50.05.

[David Randolph]

Force Protection loses ground to rivals
Military weighs long-term costs over urgent need for armored trucks

Is that it? This news was already discounted by the market. I thought we would get a big private placement.

I think now is the time for the big rebound you've been talking about ... FRPT could bounce up to meet the 50 days SMA somewhere down the road. I wrote some bearish comments on FRPT when it was above $10 and that was just a few days ago ... it wouldn't surprise me if we went back up to $10 or so.

Good luck if you're into this

[TerryG]

There is a reality to this.

FRPT got a small percentage of this 4 way split placing FRPT behind IMG and BAE, leaving FRPT in third place.

So with the Army purchasing the remaining vehicles FRPT's months are numbered, with this backlog May exactly. Of course there is one additional order scheduled for the spring to keep production open if necessary. Plus rumored international orders for hundreds of more vehicles.

FRPT's secret was the Marines bought every vehicle FRPT could make, not the Army which will be the only buyer from now on.

A criticism filtered down from the Army.

we intend to continue working with the Army to field the Cougar vehicle in a way that will meet the Army's objective of reducing sustainment and life cycle expense," said Gordon McGilton, CEO of Force Protection, Inc.

[David Randolph]

Force Protection loses ground to rivals
Military weighs long-term costs over urgent need for armored trucks

Is that it? This news was already discounted by the market. I thought we would get a big private placement.

I think now is the time for the big rebound you've been talking about ... FRPT could bounce up to meet the 50 days SMA somewhere down the road. I wrote some bearish comments on FRPT when it was above $10 and that was just a few days ago ... it wouldn't surprise me if we went back up to $10 or so.

Good luck if you're into this

FRPT's rebound has started, as the stock is up 18% as I write. The catalyst was the following press release:

• Force Dynamics, LLC Breaks Production Records in December
Business Wire (Wed 9:24am)

This isn't materially relevant news in my view, but the stock had been down so much and so fast that at least a short covering rally was due. I don't appreciate this company as a long term investment because I don't see the longevity and sustainability of earnings, as it depends heavily on military orders which can fluctuate a lot with Wars and such more or less unpredictable events.

I believe the World will evolve towards less armed conflicts, not more.

But hey, it wouldn't surprise me to see FRPT kissing the 50 days SMA in the medium term future. I just don't buy stocks for a rebound or quick profit, I invest for the long term or not at all.

Good luck

[TerryG]

Two long term obstacles. Both about future contracts beyond this spring.

MRAP II which will be the new standard in MRAPs thereafter. Only Ceradyne, and BAE have passed into pre-production testing and contracted with 6 full test prototypes. This initial contract includes options on LRIP production contracts upon completion of testing on pre-production prototypes submitted.

FRPT is still in the running with the Cheetah as "a competitive range bid" which will be looked at and worked with. But it did not pass blast testing which is why it is not with Ceradyne and BAE in MRAP II contracts. The other MRAP II candidate Cougar was being criticised for its apparent failure to meet Army standards in Sustainability and Life Cycle costs, a major requirement by the army with contracts of this size. In short the Army has placed it in third place which may be no place with the Army. For not doing it the Army way. Also, why no MRAP II contracts for full testing?

Foreign contracts seem to be less than 1000 vehicles and whether FRPT gets any or all of them is doubtful.

I think this may be a broken company because the competition keeps taking the lead, leaving FRPT following left with what?

[TerryG]

I keep hoping for a turnaround too. But the reality is this is still heading downward. The next good news will be a contract in the spring. Anything else better be any good news. Because current backlog dictates current production ends in May, June, or July. And that expansion plan below just keeps bleeding the profits with no contracts.


Force Protection Slows Cheetah Production Schedule (Update2)
2008-01-04 14:17 (New York)


     (Adds analyst comment in the fourth paragraph.)

By Edmond Lococo
     Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Force Protection Inc., the largest
supplier of blast-resistant trucks to the U.S. Marine Corps,
plans a slower production schedule for its new Cheetah vehicles
as the company gauges sales opportunities.
     Force Protection plans to start building the trucks by the
end of March at a new plant, which will have monthly capacity
for 200 by the end of 2008, Michael Aldrich, vice president for
government relations, said in an interview today. That's a
``much longer ramp-up'' than originally planned, he said.
     The company hasn't received any Cheetah orders and will
initially build between 50 and 100 for demonstration, he said.
The original plan was to build 70 to 90 of the trucks starting
in the fourth quarter of 2007. At the time of that July
announcement, Aldrich said the intention was to build the
Cheetah without orders, in advance of demand, ``like Detroit
puts out a new car.'' That has changed, he said today.
     ``They are backing off the `Field of Dreams' strategy a
little because they haven't had any orders yet,'' said Timothy
Quillin, an analyst with Stephens Inc. in Little Rock, Arkansas,
who rates Force Protection shares ``underweight'' and doesn't
own any. ``Even building 50 to 100 demo models seems excessive
to me. It might be prudent to wait for orders.''
     Force Protection, based in Ladson, South Carolina, fell 32
cents, or 6.4 percent, to $4.69 at 1:45 p.m. in Nasdaq Stock
Market composite trading. The stock has dropped 85 percent from
the record close of $30.27 on May 30.
     The slowdown follows the decision last month by the U.K.
Ministry of Defence to purchase a truck based on the company's
existing Cougar vehicle instead of the Cheetah, Aldrich said.
The Pentagon said Dec. 17 Force Protection may sell the U.K. 170
trucks, which would be valued at as much as $147 million.

                          More Prudent

     The Cheetah was in the running for the U.K. order and that
was the best prospect for a quick sale of the new truck, Aldrich
said. While there remain opportunities to sell the Cheetah in
the U.S. and to allied nations, none of those orders is likely
to come in the next 30 days, Aldrich said. He didn't identify
any potential buyers.
     ``We're taking a more financially prudent approach to
Cheetah production,'' Aldrich said. ``The acceleration will be
gauged on near-term sale opportunities.''
     Force Protection bought a 430,000 square foot building in
Roxboro, North Carolina, for $3.5 million in July, and plans to
spend a total of about $50 million to equip the new facility to
build Cheetah trucks, the company said in a Nov. 13 regulatory
filing. About $10 million was spent through Sept. 30. Force
Protection may need to issue new stock or debt early this year
to fund the expansion, the filing said.

                     `Cheetah is Everything'

     The Cheetah is crucial to Force Protection's efforts to
maintain growth because the U.S. military is cutting back
purchases of some of the larger, heavier trucks it bought to
protect troops from roadside bombs in Iraq as part of the Mine-
Resistant, Ambush-Protected vehicle, or MRAP, program, Quillin
said.
     As the war boosted demand, Force Protection ramped up
monthly output of its existing Cougar and Buffalo vehicles more
than sixfold in the past year, to 350 last month, from 55 in
December 2006. It teamed with Falls Church, Virginia-based
General Dynamics Corp. to boost Cougar output.
     The Marine Corps in November said it would cut by 38
percent planned MRAP purchases to 2,300 trucks from 3,700. The
reduction was in response to both reduced violence in Iraq, and
because of the need for greater vehicle mobility.
     At 8 tons, the Cheetah is less than half the weight of the
17-ton Cougar. The Cheetah has a cruising speed of 80 miles per
hour, compared with 55 miles per hour for the Cougar.
     ``Cheetah is everything,'' Quillin said. ``The key for this
company is establishing a long-term, sustainable revenue base,
which is going to be largely related to their success with
Cheetah.''

--Editor: Will Daley, John Lear

[TerryG]

Hi,

Been a bull and a cheerleader here. Sold in December for a loss of 52% for the year. But it started a 10 bagger for the year so I have no complaint.

The president of FRPT has been replaced by an investment banker. Clue of what this company is worth before bankruptcy.

For closure here there is only one milestone between here and bankruptcy. Roxboro and Cheetah. It is still in for next generation MRAP II testing after modifications with production delayed until Q2 with no contracts. With the delay Roxboro now has a rated production capacity of 750 vehicles in 2008, all which could still be MRAP II and foreign contracts. But again no word from the pipeline about "firm" interest.

Production is slated to end May-July with one more contract budgeted for the spring. But FRPT is third on the list behind favored IMG and BAE who have a much longer performance history with DoD than FRPT, a DoD contract policy of "past performance by contractor" status.  Something the one vehicle "Cougar" wonder does not have. It was a Marine favorite and has not earned an Army nod because Army standards for long term sustainability and life cycle were not designed into Cougar. These standards are defacto standards at the Army that the Marines overlooked because of their urgent need at the time. So between the competition and money being diverted to MRAP II vehicles the possability of not another contract in the spring is in the cards.

The near fatal blow is BAE won as the sole source contractor for MMPV, where Cougar and Cheetah were in the running. This is the long term multi-billion dollar contract for vehicles to be retained in inventory to do basically what the Cougar and Buffalo were urgently rushed to Iraq and Afghanistan.

MMPV was an FRPT future which is now BAE's.

The US Army's MMPV EOD/Engineer Vehicles
10-Jan-2008 20:02 | Permanent Link
Related stories: Contracts - Awards, Americas - USA, Trucks & Transport, BAE, Transformation

RG-33L
(click to view full)At the beginning of June 2007, BAE sat in 4th place in the US MRAP competition with orders for just 90 vehicles – 2.8% of the total. It had to be a humbling experience for the firm that went into 2004 as the world leader in the field. The climb back has been slow and consistent, involving a major $4+ billion acquisition and a slow ramp-up of orders for its flagship RG-33 family of vehicles, which built on BAE OMC's 4 decades of experience in blast-resistant vehicles in South Africa. By December 2007, BAE had reached second place in the MRAP production race with 3,569 direct orders, plus some orders via General Dynamics' entry of BAE OMC's earlier RG-31 model. In January 2007, the firm made its comeback complete, regaining its spot as the leader in the field.

The total $2.288 billion MMPV program will buy up to 2,500 vehicles for use by U.S. Army Engineers and Explosive Ordnance Disposal teams through 2015. U.S. Army engineers will use to conduct route and area clearance missions, command and control, mount mine clearing systems, and conduct explosive hazards reconnaissance. MMPVs will also be used by Explosive Ordnance Disposal teams to neutralize Improvised Explosive Devices, mines and other unexploded ordnance. BAE has just been picked as the sole-source winner...

Contracts & Key Events


Travel position
(click to view full)Jan 9/08: BAE Systems announces that it has been selected by the U.S. Army to be the sole producer of the new Medium Mine Protected Vehicle (MMPV), based on their 6×6 RG-33L design. The firm has been awarded an initial $20 million delivery order for 9 MMPV test vehicles, test support, armor testing packages, and vehicle basic issue items such as first-aid kits and repair tools, training, various contract data et. al. are due for delivery between May – August 2008.

Under a strategic Public/Private Partnership Agreement, BAE Systems and the Letterkenny Army Depot (LAD), PA will perform automotive and final assembly production operations of these vehicles in facilities on and adjacent to the LAD facilities.

[setravis]

AFTER HOURS - TOP STORY

Shares of Force Protection Tumble
After Announcing Annual Report Filing Delay
Force Protection, Inc. (FRPT) announced that it will delay the filing
of its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December
31, 2007. The Company intends to file its Annual Report on Form
10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007 with the SEC promptly
upon the completion of the audit of the consolidated financial statements
for the year ended 2007. The Company will also be providing
a restatement of Form 10Q for the period ended 9/30/2007. Force
Protection shares tumbled $0.86 or nearly 21% in After Hours, early
on Friday evening.

[Protocol Guy]

This stock is probably well priced even if it looks cheap and trading with a low P/E...

According to Thomas Weisel Partners research posted today, FRPT's price target is $3.50, main reasons for this target is the reduced market share and limited visibility: