FRPT

[TerryG]

Our Cheetah as a dark horse is looking like it has legs. With its primary manufacturing facilities to be announced, and those other vendors still working on their vehicles and proposals and the DoD still waiting , though qualification testing is complete.

Those 4,506 vehicles still to be contracted this year and the 4 billion dollars in the 2008 budget for MRAP looks like a feast is coming, just who will be invited.


The Army is not done yet, 4 billion earmarked in the 2008 budget, but the Army is looking at 10 billion dollars of cuts elsewhere. The Army admits to a bigger need for MRAP and a future for them after Iraq and Afghanistan. The Army selection of decision on which MRAP looks bigger.

Army Eyes $10 Billion in Procurement Cuts to Fund Larger MRAP Fleet

DefenseAlert - 5/16/2007

May 16, 2007 -- The Army is looking to slash as much as $10 billion from its procurement accounts to pay for a larger fleet of Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles, setting off a round of budget drills that could throw its modernization goals into chaos and trigger a wave of program terminations and delays, according to Defense Department officials.

[TerryG]

Cannot post a copy this is a pay site, but here are the teasers. Something is coming this week, I hope.

Pentagon Brass to Determine Scope of MRAP Program this Week

DefenseAlert - 6/25/2007

June 25, 2007 -- Pentagon leaders are expected to nail down the size of the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle program this week by validating an Army requirement for thousands of additional blast-proof vehicles, a move expected to generate a request to Congress for billions of additional dollars in the fiscal year 2008 supplemental request.

GEREN: ARMY SEES NEED FOR MRAPs BEYOND IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN WARS

Inside the Army - 6/25/2007

The Army sees a continuing need for the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicle beyond operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, Acting Army Secretary Pete Geren told Senators last week during his confirmation hearing.

DOD Shifts 1,200 MRAPs from Marine Corps to Army (Updated)

DefenseAlert - 6/20/2007

June 20, 2007 -- Amid widespread concern about Army casualties in Baghdad, the Pentagon is diverting 1,200 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles ordered by the Marine Corps to the Army.

Armed With $2 Billion, Marine Corps Readies Big MRAP Awards

DefenseAlert - 6/13/2007

June 13, 2007 -- The first round of Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle testing is nearly complete, setting the stage for the Marine Corps to place orders for $2 billion worth of the blast-resistant vehicles with contract awards that could influence the landscape of the tactical wheeled industrial base, according to defense officials and financial analysts.


http://defense.iwpnewsstand.com/defensenewsstand_spclsubj.asp?s=ied

[la-onda]

FRPT: Short Interest UP 3.4% to 9.0M in Jun 2007
Tuesday , June 26, 2007 16:33ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Force Protection, Inc (NasdaqSC: FRPT) INCREASED 3.4% to 8,994,004 shares for the month ended mid-June, 2007.

SYMBOL     MAY              JUNE          CHANGE                %CHANGE          DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
FRPT           8,695,554       8,994,004        +298,450        +3.43%           3

Based on FRPT's 20-day average daily share volume of 3,297,500, it would require approximately 3 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.


&

As of June 21, 2007, Frank Kavanaugh, the Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Company, resigned as a director.


still holding 

[TerryG]

Expect a hit tomorrow.


BAE Systems gets $212 mln U.S. Navy deal

Thu Jun 28, 2007 5:53 PM ET

By Jim Wolf

WASHINGTON, June 28 (Reuters) - BAE Systems Plc <BA.L> has won a $212.4 million U.S. Navy order for 271 vehicles designed to withstand roadside bombs in places like Iraq, the Defense Department said on Thursday.

The order was the first of its kind for a BAE unit since the company, headquartered in Farnborough, England, disclosed this week the existence of a U.S. Justice Department anti-corruption investigation that includes its business in Saudi Arabia.

The new order is part of a previously awarded contract that was subject to competition, the Pentagon said in its daily business summary.

Work under the deal is to be performed by BAE Systems Land & Armaments unit in York, Pennsylvania, and is expected to be wrapped up by July 2008, it said.

The order is for so-called Mine Resistant and Ambush Protected Vehicles for the U.S. Marine Corps -- a fast-growing market that BAE Systems has been keen to tap.

People familiar with the matter said the Justice Department investigation of BAE Systems centers on alleged violations of the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which bars bribes to obtain business.

Citing national security concerns, the British government stopped its own Serious Fraud Office inquiry into an alleged BAE slush fund reportedly used to support multibillion-dollar arms deals with Saudi Arabia in the 1980s.

Simultaneously, the U.S. Justice Department is weighing antitrust considerations raised by BAE's proposed $4.1 billion takeover of Jacksonville, Florida-based Armor Holdings Inc. <AH.N>, another armored-vehicle maker.

[la-onda]

much lower contract for BAE as expected (just 212 Mio US$), we will be closing green 

cheers
Oliver

[TerryG]

The bounce off of 20 or battle at 20 again.

[TerryG]

Well FRPT still shows promise but it appears we will have to wait until October Fiscal 2008 because all the backlog and production are accounted for and priced in.

But the promise has moved from 100, 200, 400, 800, and now 1,000 vehicles per month.

The joint venture, called Force Dynamics, will increase total production capacity at all plants to as much as 1,000 vehicles per month early next year ``if necessary,'' Falls Church, Virginia-based General Dynamics said in a statement today.


General Dynamics Venture Delivers First Cougar Truck to Marines
By Edmond Lococo

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- General Dynamics Corp., the largest maker of armored vehicles for the U.S. military, delivered its first Cougar blast-resistant truck to the Marine Corps as part of its joint venture with Force Protection Inc.

Delivery of the first Cougar built entirely by General Dynamics in Anniston, Alabama, occurred yesterday. More than 350 of the trucks will be built there by January, General Dynamics spokesman Peter Keating said today in an interview.

Monthly production at the Alabama facilities will reach 80 vehicles by November, Keating said. The Marine Corps is leading the military effort to buy Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles, or MRAPs, and may spend $8.4 billion over two years for as many as 7,700.

The joint venture, called Force Dynamics, will increase total production capacity at all plants to as much as 1,000 vehicles per month early next year ``if necessary,'' Falls Church, Virginia-based General Dynamics said in a statement today.

Force Protection, based in Ladson, South Carolina, has won awards valued at more than $770 million to produce more than 1,580 trucks since January, and it splits the awards evenly with General Dynamics through the joint venture. The venture was created in November to help Force Protection increase production as the U.S. military steps up purchases of the trucks to protect troops in Iraq and Afghanistan from homemade bombs.

Shares of General Dynamics dropped 78 cents to $78.22 at 4:20 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Force Protection fell $1.05 to $20.64 in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading.

To contact the reporter on this story: Edmond Lococo in Boston at [email protected] .
Last Updated: June 29, 2007 16:58 EDT

[TerryG]

I am lost, our back is against a wall. I mean where can I get the 100 MA and 200 MA statistics from online?

The wall being will the trailing bull defend the 100 MA or watch it fall to 200 MA. The trailing bull defended the 100 MA  at 15.50 last time.

Join the bears? Better late than never.

07/02/2007
Market Edge rates Avoid

Recommendation

Avoid the stock. 

If you are long, close position or monitor stock closely.
   
Comment

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bearish Trend.

Chart pattern indicates a Weak Downward Trend.

Relative Strength is Bearish.

Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Distribution.

The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.

The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.

Watch for resistance at 22.91

Stock broke Double Bottom (Bearish) Point & Figure Chart Formation Last Week

[la-onda]

TerryG, I use stockcharts.com (around 10$ per months) 

juts check the news, there is lots of money out to be invested the next years.

news update:
General Dynamics Delivers First MRAP Vehicles from Alabama
Friday , June 29, 2007 15:19ET

STERLING HEIGHTS, Mich., June 29 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- General Dynamics Land Systems, a business unit of General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), has delivered its first Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles to the U.S. Marine Corps from Anniston, Ala., less than 120 days after the company received its first production order for the new product. "This milestone demonstrates our commitment to rapidly provide the Marine Corps with the protected vehicles essential for combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan," said Rick Gillette, senior vice president of production, delivery and support for General Dynamics Land Systems. "General Dynamics and our partners -- Force Protection, Anniston Army Depot and local subcontractors -- are fully engaged in building these life-saving vehicles while increasing our combined production capacity to deliver 1,000 vehicles per month early next year, if necessary. Our success to date is the combination of teamwork, funding and commitment by all involved."

Two General Dynamics assembly operations are being created in Alabama for the combined production with Force Protection Inc. (Nasdaq: FRPT) of 1,125 vehicles for the U.S. Marine Corps' Mine Resistant Ambush Protected program. Force Protection and General Dynamics have formed a joint venture, Force Dynamics, to share in the production and program management of MRAP contracts. The Alabama sites will build more than 350 of Force Protection's Category I 4x4 and Category II 6x6 Cougar vehicles by January 2008. The 80,000-square foot main General Dynamics assembly site for MRAP vehicles will eventually employ 220 new workers in Oxford, Ala. A supporting production site on Anniston Army Depot will employ 50 new workers. General Dynamics Land Systems currently employs 240 workers on the depot building Fox and Stryker combat vehicles and the Abrams tank gunner's primary sight. Anniston Army Depot will partner with General Dynamics and perform a share of the MRAP work. General Dynamics also contracted with BR Williams to operate a warehouse in Oxford to support the new production operations. General Dynamics currently employs approximately 700 workers throughout Alabama. These new positions will increase total General Dynamics' employment in the state to nearly 1,000.

&

U.S. Military Ground Vehicle Armor Represents a $20 Billion Market 2005 to 2013.

May 7, 2007 - U.S. Military Ground Vehicle Armor Represents a $20 Billion Market 2005 to 2013.

In their newest report for the armor industry, 2007 U.S. Military Ground Vehicle Armor Forecast, Vector Strategy projects that an estimated $20 billion of military ground vehicle armor will be procured by the US Department of Defense for US military forces between 2005 and 2013 (nine years inclusive). In addition, the industry experiences an unprecedented peak in fiscal year 2007 armor procurement. According to Marcia Price, president of Vector Strategy, "Armor procurement in fiscal year 2007 is 159% the level of procurement in fiscal year 2006 - including base and supplemental budgets now under consideration by Congress."
"This peak is due to the need to repair and replace armored vehicles lost or worn out in current Iraq and Afghanistan operations, to add equipment such as MRAP vehicles to fill recently identified war-fighting needs, to supply armored vehicles to support the surge of additional troops to Iraq, to add and upgrade armored vehicles to improve current and future war-on-terrorism capabilities, and to begin procuring armored vehicles needed to support the Army and Marine Corps plans to add 92,000 active duty troops to the force over the next several years," says Ms. Price. Fiscal year 2007 and 2008 military ground vehicle armor procurement is sharply driven by large increases in supplemental funding for force protection and equipment reset. Vector projects that fiscal year 2010 to fiscal year 2013 armor procurement will decline slightly from 2009 levels, but still remain a substantial market for armor industry participants. Vector forecasts additional armor procurement for FY09 to FY13 (above the DoD's base budget for those years) to address contingency operations in which U.S. forces become involved in, to fund additional sustainment of combat vehicles, to provide applique armor to increase the protection level of mine protected vehicles, and fund JLTV armor procurement. In fiscal year 2007, 39% of total military ground vehicle armor procurement funds armor for light tactical vehicles such as HMMWV's; medium and heavy tactical vehicles represent 27% of total armor procurement; ASV's, MRAP, and other mine protected vehicles account for 10% of armor spending in 2007; and combat vehicles, such as the Stryker, Bradley, and Abrams, account for 24% of 2007 armor procurement.

Market trends affecting military ground vehicle armor procurement include:
- Even the newest HMMWV variants (M1151, M1152, and M1165) are facing weight and payload issues due to up-armoring and are still not offering vehicle occupants the desired ballistic and blast protection.
- MRAP procurement is likely to affect HMMWV procurement and production.
- Implementation of the Long Term Armoring Strategy within the US Army's procurement of the Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles initiates in FY07.
- MRAP and ASV-like vehicles will play an expanded role in the procurement and deployment of military ground vehicles even beyond FY07 and FY08.
- TUSK (Tank Urban Survivability Kit) and other similar efforts funded through "Situational Awareness" program funding will continue to be developed and deployed on all combat vehicles in the future.
- Vector believes that current combat vehicles will receive more funding that that currently projected by the DoD to sustain their functionality through FCS deployment.
- Although Stryker procurement of new vehicles is slowing, Vector believes there is the potential for significant funding for armor related modification programs for in-service vehicles.
- The Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV), Marine Personnel Carrier (MPC), and Internally Transportable Vehicle (ITV) are all new platforms coming into production during Vector's forecast horizon. Armor solutions for the EFV and MPC are likely to be lightweight composite based designs.
- Vector also foresees continued upgrades in LAV armor as this vehicle is a vital element of the USMC vehicle stable and will remain in the field for another 20 years.

&
from IV:
Latest Price Targets for FRPT
FORCE PROTECTION INC (FRPT)
Last Updated: June 30, 2007
Price Targets
Mean 33.33
High 36.00 # Raised this Week 1
Low 32.00
Data Provided by First Call

I am still holdingcheers
Oliver

[TerryG]

Thanks for the positive news. But I feel I am being contrarian. I have checked three places and all three have turned to sell. One I posted, another has a 64% sell rating holding out hope of only in the 50 to 100 day horizon. (http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=FRPT&code=BSTK)

The bad news from the DoD decision on the Army came through as a hedge agreeing only in principle that the Army needed more than 2500 vehicles. But made no formal estimate about the number of vehicles between 2500 and 23,044 estimated. Meaning they have not decided anything and are building a hedge. The hedge being aiming high but leaving themsevles off ramps should short term conditions change.

But you are right being positive they are predicting a large number as many as the manufacturers can produce. With reviews should conditions change.

I am pessimistic because the risk is so high and higher because everything is short term. And fortunes will be won or lost depending on how much and who's production the DoD decides to pay for. DoD is the only one who will see all the production plans and proposals, so only DoD will know what is coming. And we have seen what happens when a contract goes to the competition. And FRPT seems to be the only one making production plans public. Meaning the competition could spring out and surprise everyone

I cannot post a copy but here is the teaser. Mainly the good news may take a while, while FRPT slips and slides.

http://defense.iwpnewsstand.com/

JROC Backs Larger Army MRAP Fleet With Option to Curtail Total Size

DefenseAlert, June 29, 2007 -- A high-level Pentagon panel avoided locking the Army into a long-term, and very expensive, commitment to acquire all of the entire 17,700 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles sought by commanders in Baghdad, opting instead to back aggressive near-term acquisition strategy coupled with periodic reviews of the situation in Iraq to curtail purchases as conditions permit.

[TerryG]

Positive and forward, but what news is the market waiting for?

http://vwt.d2g.com:8081/2007/07/wheres_my_triquarter.html


Giambastiani discussed several procurement programs meant to protect U.S. soldiers from improvised explosive devices and suicide car bombings. The admiral said the military plans to soon ship the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected, or MRAP, vehicle to Afghanistan and Iraq. "I sign the military requirements for MRAP," Giambastiani said. "It doesn't say anything in there about going to the cheapest bidder. It says you have to pass certain tests."

[la-onda]

Army gets big boost in safer vehicles
By Tom Vanden Brook, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon has approved an Army recommendation for a 600% increase in production of Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles to protect soldiers from makeshift bombs in Iraq. The unannounced decision Thursday to build as many as 17,770 MRAPs for the Army comes as Defense Secretary Robert Gates has made the vehicle the Pentagon's top priority. The MRAP's V-shaped hull and raised chassis are up to four times safer against the top threat to U.S. troops in Iraq — improvised explosive devices, or IEDs.
In a letter Thursday to Gates, Sens. Joseph Biden, D-Del., and Kit Bond, R-Mo., said MRAPs could have saved as many as 742 U.S. troops if they had been deployed when the Marines in Iraq's restive Anbar province filed an urgent request for 1,169 of the vehicles in February 2005.
Gates said Friday he was pushing industry and the military to build MRAPs faster: "For every month we delay, scores of young Americans are going to die."
The Joint Requirement Oversight Council, a group of top Pentagon officers, accepted the Army's recommendation to make a "one for one" swap of MRAPs for armored Humvees in most cases, said Col. Steve Sliwa, chief of the Army's future war-fighting capabilities division.
That recommendation followed a visit to Iraq by a high-level Army team to assess soldiers' needs and which vehicles would best fill them.
"We're going to aggressively pursue maxing out production, definitely for '08," Sliwa said. "We're extensively testing the vehicle to ensure the soldier's very well protected."
The Pentagon's move boosts the Army's MRAP total from the 2,500 the service had originally sought and the Pentagon's total commitment to almost 23,000 vehicles. That includes 3,700 for the Marines and 1,500 for other branches of the military.

The Pentagon's decision to build more MRAPs may encounter opposition from Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., who leads the committee that writes the defense budget.

Murtha said he wouldn't support more than $6 billion in MRAP spending for next year because contractors can't build the vehicles fast enough.

The Army's bill for MRAPs next year would be $8.1 billion, according to a memo from Acting Secretary of the Army Pete Geren.

To meet the increased demand, the Pentagon awarded contracts to nine companies in January to develop and build vehicles for consideration for its MRAP program.

Since April 23, the Pentagon has awarded contracts worth about $1.6 billion to three companies to build 3,130 MRAPs, records show.

Last week, Australian television reported that Thales Australia would make 1,500 MRAPs for the Pentagon, although that has not been confirmed by the Defense Department.

Contributing: Peter Eisler

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-07-01-mrap-production_N.htm

[TerryG]

The quote refers to the JROC which has the final decision in the DoD for all services. Meaning the Army can make all the proposals it likes, but the JROC has the final decision, or the hedge being built.

The bad news from the DoD decision on the Army came through as a hedge agreeing only in principle that the Army needed more than 2500 vehicles. But made no formal estimate about the number of vehicles between 2500 and 23,044 estimated. Meaning they have not decided anything and are building a hedge. The hedge being aiming high but leaving themsevles off ramps should short term conditions change.

[TerryG]

But until then I am enjoying the rebound on the Army's opinion on what it means.  But worry about what the market is thinking.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-07-01-mrap-production_N.htm

Army gets big boost in safer vehicles

By Tom Vanden Brook, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon has approved an Army recommendation for a 600% increase in production of Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles to protect soldiers from makeshift bombs in Iraq.

The unannounced decision Thursday to build as many as 17,770 MRAPs for the Army comes as Defense Secretary Robert Gates has made the vehicle the Pentagon's top priority. The MRAP's V-shaped hull and raised chassis are up to four times safer against the top threat to U.S. troops in Iraq — improvised explosive devices, or IEDs.

[TerryG]

Here is the teaser of what they are talking about.

http://defense.iwpnewsstand.com/

JROC Backs Larger Army MRAP Fleet With Option to Curtail Total Size

DefenseAlert, June 29, 2007 -- A high-level Pentagon panel avoided locking the Army into a long-term, and very expensive, commitment to acquire all of the entire 17,700 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles sought by commanders in Baghdad, opting instead to back aggressive near-term acquisition strategy coupled with periodic reviews of the situation in Iraq to curtail purchases as conditions permit.