FRPT

[la-onda]

 
FRPT: Thomas Weisel Cuts to Market Weight from Overweight; Cuts Tgt to $17 vs $22

Monday , November 19, 2007 09:49ET
Issuer: Force Protection, Inc (NasdaqSC: FRPT)
Analyst Firm:  Thomas Weisel Partners
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Market Weight (from Overweight)
Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $17.00 (-22.73% from $22.00)
Analyst Comments: The firm lowered their rating and estimates to reflect a less aggressive ramp for Cheetah.

Chart:

[bmarc4211]

Now down under $13 with no real support below

[TerryG]

Just fell through 12.50. Wondering if stock dilution to complete Roxboro their second production facility in Q4 is it. Suspecting it is contract dilution of the remaining 6,500 vehicles being divided among more parties instead of a few. To include Cheetah it would be more parties.

Uncertainty of whether Roxboro will pay for itself and paying for it now.

[la-onda]

amstocks82 is back in town:
Force Protection, (FRPT) Hyper Growth Continues

Force Protection Inc. (FPI) is a rapidly growing manufacturer of vehicles that are generally called Mine Protected Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles. In 2004, revenue was 10.2 million, in 2005, revenue grew over 400% to $49.7 million, in 2006, revenue grew to $196 million and in Q3 of 2007, revenue grew to more than $200 million. Force Protection's profit has grown along with increasing revenue and the company has made solid progress in building the business into a mainstream defense manufacturer.

Force Protection's potential competitors for the MRAP business have steadily decreased. For the current MRAP contracts, the number of companies making MRAP vehicles dropped from 5 manufacturers and vehicles to 3 manufacturers. Force Protection is well positioned for the second phase of MRAP or MRAP II. They have a new lighter vehicle type called the Cheetah which is undergoing testing by the US government and British government and a Cougar variant for the heavier types of MRAP vehicles. Force Protection is the only manufacturer to submit a small vehicle suitable for an interim replacement for the Humvee for the MRAP II competition.

The up-armored Humvee is a 7 ton vehicle which when up-armored is carrying more weight than it was designed to carry. Therefore, it is slow, has bad fuel economy and even with additional armor unable to withstand small IED and mine blasts. The Cheetah is an 8 ton vehicle that has the same approximate size as a Humvee with similar off-road capability. Unlike the Humvee, the Cheetah is able to withstand large IED and mine blasts, has good fuel efficiency and is able to carry additional armor if needed.

Force Protection is confident that they will get sales for their Cheetah vehicle and have been building a factory to manufacturer the vehicles. The factory should be ready to start production towards the end of 2007.

Force Protection is expected by most analysts to continue getting a large part of the MRAP contracts in 2008 and therefore, revenue growth is expected to continue to be strong. Most analysts have not yet factored in any additional revenue for the Cheetah because as of yet, there have been no contracts for this vehicle. However, the military has indicated several times that existing MRAP vehicles are too large and they need a smaller MRAP vehicle similar to the Cheetah. The military has also requested small design changes to the Cheetah which have all been implemented by Force Protection. This may be why they are confident of orders for this vehicle. Additionally, militaries from several other countries have indicated interest in the Cheetah. Therefore, Force Protection should receive both domestic and foreign contracts for these vehicles.

Even though FRPT is experiencing a period of hyper growth, has the next generation product that is most needed by the military, Force Protection's stock price has been decreasing. At the same time, Force Protection remains on the Regulation SHO list indicating that the number of shares short is greater than the legal limit and there are a large number of "naked short" shares. The Naked short shares are shares that were shorted but the underlying share was never "borrowed". Hedge funds and others are able to find Market Makers who will illegally short the shares because the current SEC rules with regard to illegally shorting are very difficult to enforce, prosecution for illegally shorting shares is rare but profits for doing this can be huge.

While the number of shares shorted has been increasing, the number of negative articles about Force Protection has also increased most of which contain errors – often major factual errors. See: http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=132&mn=125011&pt=msg&mid=3527092

Rumors that don't appear in the mainstream press have been spread about Force Protection such as the company will go out of business, that they are out of money, or that they will be unable to file their financial statements and be de-listed or that they have completed a secondary PIPE offering for millions of shares at a low share price.

Many believe that the spread of rumors has been done to allow those who have the huge short positions to cover before December when Force Protection is expected to get another large MRAP order. Those who have shorted Force Protection know that Force Protection is unlikely to get large orders before then and therefore know that the company is unlikely to report good news until December. Therefore, the theory is that the hedge funds and others who have the illegal short position in Force Protection are doing what they can illegal and legal to move the share price down.

The management of Force Protection has done little to help slow the spread of misinformation by taking the obvious step of conducting quarterly conference calls. Those calls would allow shareholders and analysts to ask questions that would put to rest rumors and speculation. Management has previously indicated that they will have an end of the year conference call for Q4 and therefore, next spring, shareholders and analysts will be able to ask questions. But that leaves months in which rumors and lies can be spread about the company and shareholders and analysts can't question management to learn whether or not they are true.

Force Protection's management has preferred to concentrate on increasing production of vehicles, making the best vehicles possible and instituting the necessary financial and supply chain processes necessary to grow the company into a mainstream military supplier. This is working and Force Protection is currently building MRAP vehicles and providing them ahead of the military delivery schedule. However, depending on the number of vehicle orders that Force Protection gets in December, Force Protection will likely need additional funds to continue the rapid growth. If so, they may have a secondary offering of shares. If management were to take minimal actions to help shareholders, this would increase the share price and reduce the dilution of shares.

Even without more information from management in the near term, Force Protection is one of the fastest growing companies listed on the Nasdaq with a very low forward PE. Force Protection is the only "pure play" MRAP manufacturer. The MRAP program is about the only program both Democrats and Republicans fully support and the MRAP program is the fastest growing military spending program. Force Protection builds the "Gold Standard" MRAP vehicle. So far, no marine riding in a Force Protection designed Cougar has died despite thousands of IED and mine explosions. No other MRAP vehicle has this record. 

[TerryG]

Lastly is the short position too big? Will it continue to hold FRPT down? Or will their be a short squeeze play coming?

Secondly the one year chart shows an awful plain head and shoulders. So are we in a downtrend or bottom and continuation?

After the competion is said and done will our market share be 30% like The Stanford group has estimated all along.

Management reality to send the stock back upward. Roxboro the second 100% FRPT production facility opens Friday. The approved budget has funds so the contracts to continue production can come over any time. And for the last hoorah the Supplemental budget may contain more funds for more vehicles in the Spring as in the completion of MRAP II testing.

There are four companies still in the running in MRAP II testing, FRPT, BAE, GD, and IMG. But FRPT has is the only one which has moved on into phase two operational testing where everyone else is still in developmental testing. So hoorah if it is first come first served at MRAP II contracts.

[la-onda]

in my opinion an awesome buying opportunity:

FRPT: Short Interest UP 4.1% to 17.5M in Mid Nov 2007
Tuesday , November 27, 2007 16:18ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Force Protection, Inc (NasdaqSC: FRPT) INCREASED 4.1% to 17,456,944 shares as reported in mid-November, 2007.

SYMBOL   END OCTOBER    MID NOVEMBER          CHANGE       %CHANGE  DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
FRPT          16,772,310          17,456,944        +684,634        +4.08%           14

Based on FRPT's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,316,925, it would require approximately 14 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

&

General Dynamics signs new contract
Tuesday , November 27, 2007 15:31ET

STERLING HEIGHTS, Mich., Nov 28, 2007 (AP via COMTEX) -- General Dynamics Land Systems, a unit of General Dynamics Corp., said Tuesday it received a $47.2 million order for spare parts from Force Protection Inc.

The parts are for the U.S. Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle program.

It is the second contract General Dynamics has signed with Force Protection, a manufacturer of mine-protected vehicles. General Dynamics was previously awarded a $188.8 million contract to produce 401 vehicles for Force Protection's mine resistant vehicle program.

[la-onda]

awesome buying opportuntiy imho:

more info:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7804.525

chart:

[TerryG]

Up today, just wondering if we are going to get a follow through day Friday to confirm a market rally. Or it is the December contract news to live or die on at FRPT.

[la-onda]

Force Protection Delivers 1000th Vehicle
Wednesday November 28, 2007 5:24pm   Reporter: Patrice Smith   Posted By: Katie Newingham
Ladson - They are a force to be reckoned with. Ladson based, Force Protection, reached a milestone Wednesday. This mine resistant, ambush protected vehicle marks the 1000th total vehicle delivery in Force Protection's global war on terror. This is the cougar, the 4x4 troop carrier. It will be delivered to the US Marine Corp.The buffalo is also rolling off the assembly lines. It's a 23-ton root clearance vehicle. Currently, Ladson based workers build the steel cocoon that houses the occupants. It's then sent to a Michigan chasey company, a business partner of Force Protection, to be outfitted with the dashboard, steering wheel and other components. Last it comes back to Ladson for final inspections. This new assembly line that will be running at full capacity in the near future, will make it possible to produce the entire vehicle in Ladson.

"We're taking out that trip back and forth to Michigan with an automated process here on the assembly line," said Michael Aldrich, a vice president with Force Protection.

Force Protection started in 2003 when they produced only eleven vehicles that entire year. Now they manufacture over 200 vehicles a month. Thousands of new MRAPS are needed since the enemy of the US has the deadly IED's.

"We expect to see IED's whereever the US goes until we have enough vehicles to defend ourselves," Aldrich said.

So the department of defense is ordering more MRAPS.

"We're expecting announcements in the first half of December for an additional 6,000 vehicles," said Aldrich.

Force Protection is one of three MRAP producers in the country and will get orders for several thousand more vehicles. The company is expected to deliver more than 280 of these life saving vehicles in the month of November.

&

FRPT: Short Interest UP 4.1% to 17.5M in Mid Nov 2007
Tuesday , November 27, 2007 16:18ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Force Protection, Inc (NasdaqSC: FRPT) INCREASED 4.1% to 17,456,944 shares as reported in mid-November, 2007.
Based on FRPT's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,316,925, it would require approximately 14 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

[la-onda]

Force Protection Delivers 1000th Vehicle
Wednesday November 28, 2007 5:24pm   Reporter: Patrice Smith   Posted By: Katie Newingham
Ladson - They are a force to be reckoned with. Ladson based, Force Protection, reached a milestone Wednesday. This mine resistant, ambush protected vehicle marks the 1000th total vehicle delivery in Force Protection's global war on terror. This is the cougar, the 4x4 troop carrier. It will be delivered to the US Marine Corp.The buffalo is also rolling off the assembly lines. It's a 23-ton root clearance vehicle. Currently, Ladson based workers build the steel cocoon that houses the occupants. It's then sent to a Michigan chasey company, a business partner of Force Protection, to be outfitted with the dashboard, steering wheel and other components. Last it comes back to Ladson for final inspections. This new assembly line that will be running at full capacity in the near future, will make it possible to produce the entire vehicle in Ladson.

"We're taking out that trip back and forth to Michigan with an automated process here on the assembly line," said Michael Aldrich, a vice president with Force Protection.

Force Protection started in 2003 when they produced only eleven vehicles that entire year. Now they manufacture over 200 vehicles a month. Thousands of new MRAPS are needed since the enemy of the US has the deadly IED's.

"We expect to see IED's whereever the US goes until we have enough vehicles to defend ourselves," Aldrich said.

So the department of defense is ordering more MRAPS.

"We're expecting announcements in the first half of December for an additional 6,000 vehicles," said Aldrich.

Force Protection is one of three MRAP producers in the country and will get orders for several thousand more vehicles. The company is expected to deliver more than 280 of these life saving vehicles in the month of November.

[la-onda]

what a hit on not confirmed news

Reduction is rumor and unconfirmed according to Gordon Force Protection Chief Executive Officer Gordon McGilton said today the company has not been informed of any change in the Marine Corps procurement plan.
Company executives met with Paul Mann, the head of the Marine Corps program, as recently as two days ago and no change was announced at that point, McGilton said.
Force Protection plans to seek clarification from the Marine Corps on the report, McGilton said.
``Never believe the first report,'' McGilton said in an interview at the company's new plant in Roxboro, North Carolina. ``You learn that on the battlefield, and in business.''

Update to Bloomberg Article
Marines Want to Cut Blast-Resistant Vehicle Purchases (Update2)
2007-11-30 16:34 (New York)
By Tony Capaccio and Edmond Lococo
Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Marine Corps said it wants to buy 38 percent fewer mine-resistant trucks than originally planned, partly in response to reduced violence in Iraq.
The Marines slashed the required number to 2,300 from 3,700 vehicles based on fewer attacks in the Al Anbar province and the desire of commanders to use more armored Humvees, which offer greater mobility, Colonel David Lapan said today in an interview at the Pentagon.

The military uses Mine-Resistant, Ambushed Protected vehicles, known as MRAPs, to defend against roadside bombs, the leading killer of U.S. troops. The request must be approved by
the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the top U.S. commander in Iraq, according to Pentagon officials. The Marines are ``constantly doing assessments of our requirements,'' Lapan said.
``It's premature at this point to say there will be any reduction in the Marine's MRAP needs,'' Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said in an interview. ``There has not been a decision
made to reduce procurement at any level.''

Defense Secretary Robert Gates yesterday asked U.S. Central Command leader Admiral William Fallon and the top U.S. commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, ``to weigh in before any
decision is made,'' Morrell said.
``They have been asked to review the request and determine if it jibes with what they see are the operational needs on the ground -- from the overall mission perspective and not just the
needs of the Marines in Anbar,'' Morrell said.
``Although that is the express desire of the Marines, there are other considerations in play, including what the mission calls for in Iraq,'' he said.

Information Paper
In an ``Information Paper'' sent to congressional defense committees today, the Marine Corps said the requested reduction would save about $1.9 billion through fiscal 2009.
The paper praised the vehicles for providing freedom to move on the most high-risk roads but ``the relatively heavy MRAP cannot operate or pursue the enemy off-road, in confined areas
or across many bridges.''
``For these reasons we need to retain more'' armored Humvees vehicles in lieu of MRAPs ``for their greater maneuverability and mobility,'' said the memo obtained by Bloomberg News.
The MRAPs are providing effective protection from improvised roadside bomb attacks that ``are dramatically down over the past six months.'' The vehicles ``helped limit the potentially `game changing''' effect of these bomb attacks, the memo said.

Less Useful
Still, the vehicles are less useful for the Marines' current counter-insurgency tactics that require ``close interaction with the Iraqi populace in areas not accessible to MRAPs,'' the memo said.
At the end of September, the Pentagon saw the need for 15,274 MRAP vehicles, a 12-fold increase from the 1,185 vehicles it requested in July 2006. So far, 8,815 trucks have been
ordered, including 2,226 for the Marines, which will not be affected by the proposed reduction, Lapan said. The Pentagon now estimates the program has a total value of $24.5 billion.
The Marine request prompted shares of Force Protection Inc., the largest supplier of  blast-resistant trucks for the U.S. military, to fall the most in more than four years. Other
makers of the trucks include General Dynamics Corp., BAE Systems Plc and Navistar  International Corp.
The up-armored Humvee is made by closely held, South Bend, Indiana-based AM General and Armor Holdings Inc. Jacksonville, Florida-based Armor Holdings Inc. was acquired this year by BAE Systems.

New Plant
The report of reduced MRAP demand comes as Force Protection today opened a new plant in Roxboro, North Carolina, to build its third blast-resistant vehicle, the Cheetah. The Cheetah has
not been ordered as part of the MRAP program. The company is marketing Cheetah as a lighter, more mobile vehicle than MRAPs which still shares some of the same blast-deflecting qualities,
and may be a potential vehicle for replacing armored Humvee transports.
Force Protection has committed to spend $50 million on the plant to build its new Cheetah truck before announcing a single customer. After a delay from its original planned start date of
Nov. 1, the company intends to begin Cheetah production on Jan. 1, said Daniel Busher, executive vice president. The plant will have an annual production capacity of more than 2,000 trucks. Busher wouldn't comment on what production rate the company intends to use prior to receiving orders.

Potential Return
``I don't consider the commitments we've made so far to be very large if you look at the magnitude of the potential return,'' Force Protection Chief Executive Officer Gordon McGilton said today. ``We made a small financial commitment to lay the groundwork for what we think is a large financial opportunity.'' Force Protection currently makes two vehicles for the MRAP
program -- the Cougar and the Buffalo. At 8 tons, the Cheetah is less than half the weight of the 17-ton Cougar. The Cheetah has a cruising speed of 80 miles per hour, compared with 55 miles per hour for the Cougar.

The Cheetah addresses many of the mobility and transportation problems with the current fleet of MRAP vehicles, which are too large and heavy, said Alan Albrecht, a private investor in Granite Bay, California, who holds 350,000 shares of Force Protection. That may give Cheetah an edge when the military looks to replace the current fleet of Humvee transports in Iraq with a
better protected truck, yet which is not as cumbersome as current MRAP vehicles.
``Cheetah is lighter, more mobile and off-road capable, while giving the same protection as Cougar,'' Albrecht said.
``It's a closer replacement for the armored Humvee than any other MRAP vehicle.''

[la-onda]

awesome:
http://news14.com/Video/video_pop.aspx?vids=61719&sid=83&rid=94

[TerryG]

Along with the news that the Marines procuring fewer vehicles.

The short position is too big. I see a parallel now developed. The short squeeze was quoted to begin at 15.50 it was proceding to do that rallying with the market Thursday before profit taking sent it back down to 15. Then the Marine procurement news after the close, and here we are. The next level of support is now 8 if the bears and short sellers really are in control.

On the management reality. Roxboro is now open with production to begin in January, but has yet to receive its first contracts. The government is giving it two chances an early contract in December as Cheetah and FRPT vehicles are the only competitor moved into the second phase of MRAP II testing, so they may get a first come first served MRAP II contract. The second opening is officially the Supplemental budget when MRAP II testing is expected to be complete. And international orders until the govenment order comes through? The state department has not approved the Cheetah for foreign sales or export yet. Though they could after a contract request or approval.

So with earning falling off due to program cutback rumors waiting for official news from other than the Marines? DoD must remain silent to not give a competitive advantage to any of the vendors in the program.

Two live or die pieces of news in December. Contract announcements for production beyond Q1. And the Fed cut on December 11 because FRPT does rally when the the market rallies, but the program cutback rumors have dropped it from the general rally. Otherwise the suspense is killing FRPT.

[TerryG]

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/874941

BUYINS.NET: Naked Short Sellers Attack Force Protection (FRPT), Selling American Troops Short In Iraq. Approximately 51.7 Million Shares Shorted Since January 2005. Short Sellers Fail To Comply With Regulation SHO Buyin Deadline.

Monday, December 03, 2007; Posted: 03:55 AM

Dec 03, 2007 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- FRPT | charts | news | PowerRating -- BUYINS.NET, www.buyins.net, is initiating coverage of Force Protection, Inc. (NASDAQ: FRPT | charts | news | PowerRating) after releasing the latest short sale data to December 2007. From January 2005 to December 2007 approximately 672 million total aggregate shares of FRPT have traded for a total dollar value of nearly $10.45 billion. The total aggregate number of shares shorted in this time period is approximately 51.75 million shares. The FRPT SqueezeTrigger price of $15.55 is the volume weighted average short price of all short selling in FRPT. As of November there are 17,456,900 shares of Total Short Interest and $192 million of short covering that still needs to occur. A short squeeze is expected to begin when shares of FRPT close above $15.55. To access SqueezeTrigger Prices ahead of potential short squeezes beginning, visit http://www.buyins.net.

Month Total Vol Avg.Price Short Vol $Value
Jan 05 3,910,310 $3.15 301,094 $948,445
Feb 3,252,729 $2.57 250,460 $643,682
Mar 2,404,599 $2.01 185,154 $372,159
Apr 1,879,150 $1.76 144,695 $254,662
May 4,407,187 $1.94 339,353 $658,345
June 3,662,860 $1.70 282,040 $479,468
July 1,994,823 $1.50 153,601 $230,402
Aug 2,497,769 $1.50 192,328 $288,492
Sept 2,259,654 $1.42 173,993 $247,070
Oct 2,301,460 $1.16 177,212 $205,566
Nov 2,289,716 $1.01 176,308 $178,071
Dec 2,146,854 $0.85 165,308 $140,511
Jan 06 5,592,152 $1.11 430,596 $477,961
Feb 8,715,711 $1.72 671,110 $1,154,308
Mar 4,699,167 $1.97 361,836 $712,816
Apr 2,495,649 $1.98 192,165 $380,486
May 21,274,452 $2.88 1,638,133 $4,717,822
June 17,206,596 $5.34 1,324,908 $7,075,008
July 9,536,571 $6.32 734,316 $4,640,876
Aug 11,998,479 $6.17 923,883 $5,700,357
Sept 26,604,626 $7.63 2,048,556 $15,630,483
Oct 24,692,080 $7.72 1,901,290 $14,677,960
Nov 29,531,586 $9.44 2,273,932 $21,465,919
Dec 27,473,564 $14.79 2,115,464 $31,287,718
Jan 07 39,455,328 $19.20 3,038,060 $58,330,756
Feb 33,401,266 $17.69 2,571,897 $45,496,866
Mar 26,704,068 $16.93 2,056,213 $34,811,690
Apr 26,363,182 $20.90 2,029,965 $42,426,268
May 39,708,984 $25.38 3,057,592 $77,601,679
June 75,947,912 $24.73 5,847,989 $144,620,773
July 55,214,192 $18.89 4,251,493 $80,310,698
Aug 43,304,420 $16.43 3,334,440 $54,784,854
Sept 21,813,696 $19.05 1,679,655 $31,997,419
Oct 52,112,952 $20.59 4,012,697 $82,621,437
Nov 35,251,008 $14.57 2,714,328 $39,547,753
Tot 672,104,752 $15.55 51,752,066 $805,118,797
*short volume is approximated using exchange data and a proprietary algorithm.
**average short price is calculated using a volume weighted average short price.
***short volume is the total short trade volume and does not account for covers.

Force Protection, Inc. has been on the NASDAQ Naked Short Threshold list for 108 trading days and short sellers have been failing to deliver for 113 consecutive trading days. Regulation SHO took effect January 3, 2005, and provides a new regulatory framework governing short selling of securities. It was designed with the objective of simplifying and modernizing short sale regulation and providing controls where they are most needed. At the conclusion of each settlement day, data is provided on securities in which: 1) there are at least 10,000 shares in aggregate failed deliveries for the security for five consecutive settlement days, and 2) these failures constitute at least 0.5% of the issuer's total shares outstanding. SEC Regulation SHO, under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, mandates that, if a clearing agent has had a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, that clearing agent, and the broker/dealer it clears for, must purchase securities to close out its fail to deliver position. To date, naked short sellers have failed to locate or borrow an estimated 8.7 million shares of FRPT stock. This violation of Regulation SHO and the amended Regulation SHO, which required buyins (forced covers) within 35 trading days of the October 15th, 2007 effective date, exposes short sellers to regulatory repercussion by NASDAQ, FINRA and the SEC.

Here are the facts on Force Protection. Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) account for 63% of soldier fatalities in Iraq. The Department of Defense currently has slated to purchase between 15,000 and 16,000 heavy duty Mine Resistant Ambush Protect Vehicles (MRAPs). This figure already includes comments from military officials to potentially curb or re-allocate 8% of the heavy vehicle purchases. Total contract value up for bid is north of $15 billion and analysts expect Force Protection to garner at least $5 billion in total orders (FRPT already has in excess of $1.5 billion in orders under contract.) Force Protection generates after-tax net income of approximately $36,000 per vehicle and is expected to deliver up to 5,000 vehicles under the current MRAP program. $180 million in after-tax profits on 68.25 million shares outstanding translates into approximately $2.64 cents per share in total earnings on US domestic orders for heavy MRAP vehicles. By mid 2008 Force Protection manufacturing capacity is expected to reach 1,000 vehicles per month, so it is highly likely that Force Protection can fulfill 100% of its production requirement in fiscal 2008.

In March 2008 the Department of Defense will begin awarding approximately $34 billion in contracts to upgrade, armor and replace the entire US Humvee fleet. Senior Army officials have previously okayed a $34 billion plan to refurbish and replace the service's truck fleet. Over the next 10 years, the Army is expected to acquire 70,000 new vehicles and upgrade more than 200,000 from the existing inventory.

According to National Defense Magazine, this plan, code-named "tactical wheeled vehicle fleet transformation strategy," would expand the Army's inventory from 235,000 to 280,000 trucks. The growth is attributed to the conversion of the Army's 10 divisions into 77 independent brigades. Each brigade will need to deploy with its own logistics assets, and no longer will rely on division- or corps-level support. The upshot is a sizeable increase in the number of trucks required to outfit each brigade, explains Army Lt. Gen. Claude V. Christianson, deputy chief of staff for logistics. The current fleet of about 120,000 Humvees has at least 74,000 that are 20 years old.

With 3 main suppliers of MRAP vehicles currently authorized by the US Government, the potential for any one supplier in this program could reach approximately $10 billion in new domestic contracts. If Force Protection wins these contracts it could generate an additional $360 million in after tax net income over the life of the new contracts, assuming similar after tax net income as the heavy MRAP program. Force Protection currently employs the highest corporate tax rate of 40% in its fiscal reporting. Proposed talk in Washington about lowering corporate tax rates could have a significant positive effect on FRPT's Earnings Per Share. A 10% reduction in corporate tax rates could yield a 16.6% increase in previously projected after tax net income figures.

Shares of Force Protection have been heavily shorted. Naked short selling shares of Force Protection when short sellers have already been failing to deliver for more than 13 consecutive trading days is an outright violation of Regulation SHO. The negative effect these phantom shares (shares that do not exist because they are sold without being legally borrowed) is multiplied in fast growing companies. Should a company rely on capital to meet exponential order demand, driving down a stock price increases cost of capital. While Force Protection has no long term debt and the ability to borrow the funds necessary to meet high demand for its products, the negative implications of a stock declining from naked short selling can have unintended consequences. Management can be distracted from day to day operations of protecting American soldiers in Iraq in order to deal with the negative publicity generated from reporters that either on purpose, or unwittingly publish negative sound bytes that are sometimes generated by short sellers. In late November reporters highlighted month old comments from military officials and spooked market makers into a self fulfilling prophecy of lower stock prices. Since market makers determine a stock price, they control how quickly or slowly a price moves up or down. In many instances market makers have or are closely affiliated with large proprietary positions and can aid in the manipulation of stock prices by moving a stock price to unrealistic levels.

In July 2007 the American Stock Exchange Disciplinary Panel fined Scott Arenstein and SBA Trading $3.6 million and ordered them to disgorge $1.4 million in ill-gotten profits resulting from naked short selling and suspended both entities from associating with any Exchange for 5 years. Also in July 2007 the American Stock Exchange Disciplinary Panel fined Brian Arenstein and ALA Trading $1.2 million and ordered them to disgorge $1.8 million in ill-gotten profits resulting from naked short selling and suspended both entities from associating with any Exchange for 5 years.

Both SBA Trading and ALA Trading were members of the Exchange and Registered Market Makers. Both engaged in naked short selling and attempted to avoid buyin requirements of Regulation SHO by claiming the options market exemption for bonafide market making transactions. The American Stock Exchange found that both firms were not acting as bonafide market makers and were attempting to avoid multiple buyin notices by entering into reverse conversion transactions using a complex array of married puts and flex options to create the appearance that a buyin had occurred when in fact it had not. Details of the exact method market makers are using to naked short sell stocks by manipulating exemptions can be found the in the following SEC filing:

http://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-19-07/s71907-336.pdf

With nearly $2.8 trillion in global hedge fund assets and funds' ability to borrow up to 10 times their equity and margin positions an additional 2-4 times, the economic superpower wielded by trading firms in the 21st century is a fertile landscape for widespread manipulation and abuse. Updating regulations such as Regulation SHO is a start in the war against economic terror. But enforcement is everything. The SEC has started the ball rolling and the American Stock Exchange is to be applauded for being a first mover in monitoring the behavior of its participants and having the brain power to uncover complicated schemes to defraud investors in US companies.

With today being the deadline for naked short sellers to cover positions with failures to deliver, Buyins.net is beginning a fact finding mission to uncover the truth behind naked short sellers failing to deliver for 113 consecutive trading days when Regulation SHO clearly prohibits failures to deliver from exceeding 13 trading days. Shares of Force Protection were trading at approximately $24 when naked short sellers started failing to deliver. With the stock at $11, the loss in market capitalization has been approximately $887 million. In summary, Force Protection, a government contractor building out the highest priority military vehicle procurement request in recent history to save American soldiers' lives in Iraq, is attacked by naked short sellers on American soil costing the company nearly $1 billion in value and regulators have yet to fight back.

About Force Protection, Inc.
Force Protection, Inc. was the first to respond to the urgent need to bring lifesaving mine-resistant ambush protected vehicles to U.S. troops in combat. The Company is a leading American manufacturer of ballistic- and blast-protected wheeled vehicles currently deployed by the U.S. military and its allies to support armed forces and security personnel in conflict zones. The Company's specialty vehicles, the Cougar and the Buffalo, each have a proven track record where it matters most - in the battlefield. The Company's newest vehicle, the Cheetah, is designed specifically for reconnaissance, forward command and control, and urban operations, and combines state-of-the-art ballistic and blast protection with the mobility of a unique light-armored vehicle. These specialty vehicles, which the Company believes are in the forefront of blast-resistant technology, are designed to protect their occupants from landmines, hostile fire, and improvised explosive devices (IEDs, commonly referred to as roadside bombs). The Company is one of the primary providers of vehicles for the U.S. military's Mine Resistant Ambush Protected, or MRAP, vehicle program. For more information on Force Protection and its vehicles, visit www.forceprotection.net.

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WWW.BUYINS.NET is a service designed to help bonafide shareholders of publicly traded US companies fight naked short selling. Naked short selling is the illegal act of short selling a stock when no affirmative determination has been made to locate shares of the stock to hypothecate in connection with the short sale. Buyins.net has built a proprietary database that uses Threshold list feeds from NASDAQ, AMEX and NYSE to generate detailed and useful information to combat the naked short selling problem. For the first time, actual trade by trade data is available to the public that shows the attempted size, actual size, price and average value of short sales in stocks that have been shorted and naked shorted. This information is valuable in determining the precise point at which short sellers go out-of-the-money and start losing on their short and naked short trades.

BUYINS.NET has built a massive database that collects, analyzes and publishes a proprietary SqueezeTrigger for each stock that has been shorted. The SqueezeTrigger database of nearly 1,650,000,000 short sale transactions goes back to January 1, 2005 and calculates the exact price at which the Total Short Interest is short in each stock. This data was never before available prior to January 1, 2005 because the Self Regulatory Organizations (primary exchanges) guarded it aggressively. After the SEC passed Regulation SHO, exchanges were forced to allow data processors like Buyins.net to access the data.

The SqueezeTrigger database collects individual short trade data on over 7,000 NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ stocks and general short trade data on nearly 8,000 OTCBB and PINKSHEET stocks. Each month the database grows by approximately 50,000,000 short sale transactions and provides investors with the knowledge necessary to time when to buy and sell stocks with outstanding short positions. By tracking the size and price of each month's short transactions, BUYINS.NET provides institutions, traders, analysts, journalists and individual investors the exact price point where short sellers start losing money and a short squeeze can begin.
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[TerryG]

MRAP program cutback rumor from Marines, though final decision is not theirs. And the stock is still heading down

10.53 at time of post.