FRPT

[TerryG]

vcall shorted us. Just slides? I want the audio where they grill someone.

[TerryG]

This looks like a tough customer. I did not see this competition from Navistar.

Check the attached jpg.

[TerryG]

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?id=25119


Navistar expects to see portion of military truck deal

(Crain's) — As the U.S. military's order for landmine-resistant trucks grows larger, executives at Navistar International Corp. are becoming more confident that they'll get to build at least some of the trucks.

The Warrenville-based truck and engine maker expects to hear within days whether the Department of Defense will give the company a piece of the 17,700 trucks requested by the Army and Marine Corps.

With a compromise at hand between President George W. Bush and Congress over funding the war in Iraq, Navistar predicts a portion of the estimated $18-billion price tag for the new trucks will be appropriated by Congress.

"That will turn on the spigot," said Archie Massicotte, president of International Military & Government LLC, Navistar's defense-industry subsidiary.

Other defense contractors competing for a truck-making contract include General Dynamics Corp., Britain's BAE Systems PLC, Wisconsin-based Oshkosh Truck Corp. and Force Protection Inc., a small South Carolina company that has already built a handful of trucks.

In combat in Iraq, Force Protection's trucks provided better protection from roadside bombs than the Humvee, the military's long-serving light-duty utility vehicle.

The Humvee has been particularly vulnerable to insurgent attacks. Land mines and other remote-activated explosives have accounted for the bulk of U.S. casualties in Iraq.

Nine companies were invited to submit versions of the truck, which features an armored crew compartment and a V-shaped bottom to deflect mine shrapnel away from the vehicle.
To expedite production, Mr. Massicotte expects the Department of Defense to authorize production of different versions of the truck with some common features.

The military recently wrapped up testing of Navistar's prototype truck, which is built on a dump-truck chassis. Mr. Massicotte says Navistar's model matches up well against Force Protection's truck.

"We survived the munitions and blast tests," Mr. Massicotte said. "We did extremely well on the automotive test side, too."

The number of trucks requested by the Army and Marines has grown steadily since early this year, when the military anticipated buying just a few thousand. But orders have increased steadily as word spreads through the ranks about the truck's blast survivability. The number of trucks requested by military recently jumped to 17,700 from 7,700.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates last week described production of the mine-resistant truck as one of the most important programs in the Department

[la-onda]

fyi:
FRPT: Short Interest DN 4.0% to 8.7M in May 2007
Friday , May 25, 2007 01:04ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Force Protection, Inc (NasdaqSC: FRPT) DECREASED 4.0% to 8,695,554 shares for the month ended mid-May, 2007.

SYMBOL             APRIL             MAY          CHANGE       %CHANGE  DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
FRPT           9,055,524       8,695,554        -359,970        -3.98%           6

Based on FRPT's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,700,260, it would require approximately 6 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

&

Force Protection gets $11.9M Navy deal
Thursday , May 24, 2007 19:28ET

By Staff Reporter

WASHINGTON, May 25, 2007 (AP via COMTEX) -- The U.S. Navy on Thursday awarded an $11.9 million deal to Force Protection Inc. to build and deliver 14 next-generation armored vehicles.

The Ladson, S.C.-based company last month won a $490 million contract for 1,000 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected, or MRAP, vehicles. The vehicle maker is partnering up with General Dynamics Corp. under a joint venture, dubbed 'Force Dynamics' to deliver the armored vehicles to the Army and Marines as quickly as possible.

The company will complete work on this contract by April 2008.

MRAP vehicles protect U.S. soldiers from mines, rocket-propelled grenades and improvised explosive devises and are currently used in operations in Iraq.

Shares of Force Protection rose 34 cents to $27.63 in extended trading, after shares dropped 36 cents to $27.29 in the regular trading session Thursday.

[Terliso]

FRPT needs to ramp up production.

http://www.liveleak.com/player.swf?autostart=false&token=b92_1180175087

[TerryG]

Expect the president to sign it and for the contracts to come over from DoD soon after in June. Let the chips fall where they may.

http://www.untdemocrats.org/2007_05_01_untdemocrats_archive.html

Thursday, May 24, 2007

Senate OKs war spending bill, sent to Bush for signature

Less than two hours after the House did so, the Senate voted to send the legislation to the president 80-14. Democratic Presidential hopefuls Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Christopher Dodd voted against it. Joe Biden voted in favor.

[la-onda]

sweet and dandy 
1)
Force Protection Industries, Inc.,* Ladson, S.C., is being awarded $11,991,406 for firm-fixed-priced delivery order #0006 under previously awarded firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract (M67854-07-D-5006) for 14 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Category III Buffalo vehicles. The Buffalo is a mine-resistant, route clearance type vehicle that is needed in convoy operations. Work will be performed in Ladson, SC and work is expected to be completed by April 2008. Contract funds in the amount of $11,991,406 will expire at the end of the current fiscal year. This contract was not competitively procured. The Marine Corps Systems Command, Quantico, Va., is the contracting activity.

2)

Why so few bomb-safe US military trucks in Iraq?
No one has ever been killed riding in the 31,000-pound 'Cougar.' But only a few hundred are in service.
By Gordon Lubold | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

Washington

One senior officer calls it a "moral imperative," and others see it as a no-brainer, but four years into a deadly war, there are only some 350 blast-resistant trucks protecting US troops in Iraq. Officials inside and outside the military want to know why. When it comes to safeguarding troops against roadside bombs, the top killer in Iraq, the new must-have truck is an MRAP – a Mine Resistant, Ambush Protected vehicle. It's a hulking machine, at 31,000 pounds, with a 'V'-shaped hull that diverts blasts away from the carriage – and the troops riding inside. No one has ever been killed riding in one version of the vehicle, called a Cougar.
So why aren't thousands of the trucks, first available in 2003, in Iraq?

"How is it possible that with our nation at war, with more than 130,000 Americans in danger, with roadside bombs destroying a growing number of lives and limbs, we were so slow to act to protect our troops?" asked Sen. Joseph Biden (D) of Delaware in a letter Tuesday to Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

The answers to Senator Biden's question illustrate how hard it can be for the government – and the private sector – to respond to urgent battlefield needs while weighing legitimate concerns about how government contracts are awarded and production lines are cranked up. In the case of the MRAP, the process has been especially slow and tangled. In 2004, a year after the invasion of Iraq, the insurgency was mounting and roadside bombs were killing American troops. The conventional thinking about how to protect troops was to field "up-armored" Humvees. At the time, the insurgency didn't look as if it would go on much longer, so there was no need to invest in a new vehicle, and the Humvee already had an established industrial base. But the enemy was adapting, placing roadside bombs in such a way to cause blasts that ripped through the underside of vehicles, causing casualties.

At the same time, a small company in South Carolina called Force Protection Inc. was pushing a different solution. It had designed a truck with a steel undercarriage shaped like a 'V,' which diverted the force of blasts to the side of the vehicle.

But the company and those who supported the initiative couldn't provide enough data to prove the effectiveness of the MRAP design. And even if it had had the data to make the case to the Pentagon, the company was too small to mass-produce the vehicle. A year earlier, its 11-employee workforce had taken a month to produce just one truck.

"In the beginning, we really weren't good enough to mass produce enough to be a good, mainstream solution," says Mike Aldrich, the company's vice-president of marketing and government relations.

But Marines with the I Marine Expeditionary Force in Camp Pendleton, Calif., knew the design would save lives and made a request in February 2005 for more than 1,100 of the trucks. More than a year later, they made a second request. The Pentagon ultimately approved just 185 vehicles in mid-2006. Even as the Pentagon gears up to buy thousands more of the vehicles, Biden wants Secretary Gates to investigate the delay.

The Pentagon wants 21,000 of the vehicles and Congress is paying for 7,700 of them. The company is now producing each month about 100 Cougars – the version most wanted by the military – and it's preparing to go to a 200-per-month production rate, hiring 25 new employees a week. Aldrich says his company can make 10,000 vehicles by December – but that's if he gets an order from the US government by July 1.

"That will get a lot of people protected in a hurry," he says. "Now we're clearly putting the ball back in the government's court, we're saying 'place the order,' " he says.

But he declines to say how he can meet the surge in demand. At least eight other companies are also vying for MRAP contracts. The process by which the Pentagon awards contracts has long been slow. But the process moved quickly once the decision was made to move forward.
While there was interest in the MRAP, it was hard for the services initially to make a "strategic decision" to buy thousands of them, says a Washington, D.C., attorney familiar with the MRAP contracting issue. If the military put all its acquisition eggs all in one basket and then found it didn't need the truck a year or so later, that would be seen as poor judgment at best and a boondoggle at worst.

"The problem they had was more of strategy – where to you put your money, what makes the most sense – and not so much of the nuts and bolts of government acquisition," he says. "Once the decision was made at the strategic level to go with MRAP, they moved out pretty darn quick, warp speed."

Marine Commandant Gen. James Conway says the Corps is pushing the envelope when it comes to working through – and if necessary, around – contracting regulations that can delay such purchases.

"I could be wearing stripes [of enlisted men] when this is all over," General Conway joked during a Pentagon briefing recently, saying nevertheless that it is a "moral imperative" to get these vehicles to Iraq.

Some question why there's all the fuss about a vehicle that will not have a big impact protecting forces until thousands more can be fielded next year and the year after – about the same time that many Americans believe the bulk of US forces will have left Iraq. That's not the way Aldrich sees it. As long as roadside bombs are effective, enemies of the US will use them wherever they may be, he says.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0531/p01s02-usmi.htm

[la-onda]

1)
Navistar Wins $623 Million Blast-Proof Truck Award (Update4)
2007-05-31 18:18 (New York)
(Adds comment from Marine Corps in second paragraph.)
By Edmond Lococo
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Navistar International Corp. won a $623 million award from the U.S. Marine Corps to make blast-resistant trucks that better protect troops in Iraq. It's the largest contract for such trucks to date. The award covers production of 1,200 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles, or MRAPs, Marine Corps spokesman Bill Johnson-Miles said today in a statement. The trucks will be delivered by February 2008. These additional vehicles will help support the increasing requirement for MRAP vehicles in theater with their proven capability to save lives,'' Johnson-Miles said in the statement. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on May 9 quicker acquisition of blast-resistant vehicles to improve protection of U.S. troops in Iraq is the Pentagon's top procurement priority. American forces in May suffered their deadliest month in Iraq since November 2004, with at least 123 killed, according to Pentagon data. Homemade bombs have accounted for 61 percent of the 2,793 U.S. combat deaths in the conflict so far.
The Marine Corps has said the new trucks, which deflect explosive force with V-shaped hulls, are four times safer than flat-bottomed Humvee transports. The Marines are leading efforts
to buy the new vehicles and may spend $8.4 billion over two years for as many as 7,700 trucks. The U.S. Army said this month it may need 17,000 of them valued at $19.4 billion through 2009.
Assembly and Armor:
Navistar will do the assembly and armor plating at its International Truck and Engine Corp.
lant in West Point, Mississippi. U.S. Congressman Roger Wicker, a Mississippi Republican, issued a statement announcing the award earlier today. The contract exceeds the $481.4 million order given to Force Protection Inc. for 1,000 vehicles in April and smaller awards to four other  manufacturers. The Navistar vehicle is a new truck called the International MaxxPro. Roy Wiley, spokesman for Warrenville, Illinois-based Navistar, declined to provide details on the vehicle.
`While it's not battle-tested, it certainly has been field tested,'' Wiley said. `It came through all those tests with flying colors.''
Shares of Navistar rose $2.50, or 4 percent, to $64.89 at 4 p.m. New York time over-the-counter trading.
Ladson, South Carolina-based Force Protection dropped $1.80, or 6 percent, to $28.47 in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. "We were shocked the order went to a vehicle with no track record,'' said Force Protection Vice President Michael Aldrich. "We know the government intends to buy from multiple manufacturers. The size of that order, to that vehicle system,
is a bit surprising.'' The four other companies with awards include General Dynamics Corp. in Falls Church, Virginia; Oshkosh Truck Corp. in Oshkosh, Wisconsin; closely held Protected Vehicles Inc. in North Charleston, South Carolina, and London-based BAE Systems
Plc. For Navistar, the award is ``significant,'' said JB Groh, an analyst at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon. Still, he said it's not enough to change his view on the company's
shares, which he rates underperform.'' He doesn't own the stock. Navistar was de-listed by the New York Stock Exchange in February for failing to file financial reports. The company
hasn't disclosed earnings or sales since the third quarter of 2005 because of problems in accounting for warranties and product-development programs at suppliers. The order for the mine-resistant vehicles and speculation by analysts that Navistar may be a takeover target are fueling gains in the company's shares, Groh said. The stock has jumped 94 percent this year.
In terms of the stock, it's way overheated,'' Groh said.

&

Navistar has mighty political guns fighting to win MRAP contracts

<INTERNATIONAL TRUCK WINS $623 MILLION MARINE CORPS CONTRACT
West Point facility will do assembly and plating for armored vehicles; 350 jobs expected

WASHINGTON, DC-The U.S. Marine Corps has awarded a $623 million contract to International Truck and Engine Company to build 1,200 mine-resistant ambush-protected armored vehicles (MRAP), federal lawmakers said Thursday. Assembly and armor plating will be done at International's West Point, Mississippi, facility.

U.S. Rep. Roger Wicker and Sens. Thad Cochran and Trent Lott said the contract specifies delivery of the vehicles to the Marine Corps by February 2008. International Truck is partnered with Griffin Armament at its West Point operation. The contract is expected to produce 350 jobs at the West Point plant. The MRAP is designed to provide better protection against mines and incendiary explosive devices, which have caused the greatest number of casualties for U.S. troops in Iraq.

"International Truck has a proven record of building and delivering armored vehicles to protect American service personnel," Rep. Wicker said. "This contract reflects the confidence the Marine Corps has in International's expertise. It is also good news for West Point, where International employees will have a hand in providing the safest and most dependable armored vehicles in the world."

Sen. Cochran said, "I am very pleased the Department of Defense has recognized the quality of the workforce in West Point. The Golden Triangle Region continues to demonstrate leadership as the State of Mississippi has grown into a major player in the automotive industry. This contract will help protect U.S. troops as well as provide our work force at home with good job opportunities."

Sen. Lott said, "I've worked with the Marine Corps to ensure this competition was a fair one which gave West Point's work force an opportunity to participate in this very important contract. With this announcement, the Golden Triangle area becomes home to a second truck manufacturing facility, creating good manufacturing jobs and giving Mississippi an even stronger presence in the growing Mid-South automotive production corridor. Yet, more important than any economic impact, this contract will provide our troops with a vehicle that better resists the deadly explosive devices so often used by America's terrorist foes."

The truck chassis will be built at the company's Garland, Texas, location and then transferred to the military integration facility in West Point for final assembly. International has already delivered more than 4,000 military vehicles over the past several years. An armored heavy haul tractor produced in West Point went to Iraq last year, and another vehicle is in service in Iraq and Afghanistan. International also builds vehicles for U.S. allies, including Israel. >"

[la-onda]

FRPT Force Protection: Navistar awarded 1200 MRAP vehicles; would be buyers on weakness - CE Unterberg (26.75 -0.94) -Update-

CE Unterberg expects weakness in FRPT shares today after last night's announcement from the DoD that International Military and Government, a subsidiary of Navistar (NAVZ) was awarded a $623 mln contract to build 1,200 Category I MRAP vehicles. Although they had expected, and continue to expect, additional orders to other vendors, the firm had regarded IM&G as a less likely major participant in the program than BAE System, General Dynamics (GD) or Oshkosh Truck (OSK). Their ests assume the Force Dynamics JV wins 42% of the 23,000 MRAP program. They would be buyers on weakness, particularly aggressive in the mid-to-high $20 area. The firm thinks there are more orders coming, probably in the next 30 to 45 days as the F07 Supplemental funds are released, then deployed.

[TerryG]

There is one major sticking point and that is that P/E should be based on the number of vehicles they can produce and deliver in Fiscal 2007, then future contracts.  Because the budget authorization expires and cannot be used. So we have June, July, August, and September to account for.

So I guess we are open to a slide like last year waiting for the Fiscal 2008 budget and contracts.

Problem. Do they already have a backlog to account for all the vehicles they can produce this fiscal year?

[TerryG]

 la-onda ,

How current is the quote below? Or is it a reiteration of a previous report?

Their ests assume the Force Dynamics JV wins 42% of the 23,000 MRAP program. They would be buyers on weakness, particularly aggressive in the mid-to-high $20 area. The firm thinks there are more orders coming, probably in the next 30 to 45 days as the F07 Supplemental funds are released, then deployed

[la-onda]

this was a briefing.com quotation, sorry no report available 
I am still holding FRPT

[la-onda]

 
You Can Win By Thinking Big

You Can Win By Thinking Big
by Timothy Lutts
June 4th, 2007

A week ago, on Memorial Day, I wrote about Force Protection (FRPT), the maker of armored vehicles that's grown very rapidly in recent quarters and expects continued growth as the government ramps up its program to replace Humvees in Iraq with vehicles that can better protect the troops.
Back then the stock was trading a shade above 28, and I wrote, "Ideally, you want to buy when the stock corrects to its 25-day moving average down around 25. That's also the level where the stock met resistance back in January, so it should act as a floor.
"And if the stock fails from there, you cut your loss short; nothing is guaranteed in this business. But if you manage your risk properly (buying at the right point is very important in this regard), stories like Force Protection can pay off very well."
In the four trading days that followed, the stock climbed to 30 and then fell - on big volume - back to 26, following the news that the Department of Defense had awarded Navistar a $623 million contract to build 1,200 armored vehicles.
Now, the novice looks at these developments and says, "This doesn't look good. A new competitor has snuck in to Force Protection's territory. And the stock is down from 30 to 24. Maybe I should sell now and get out before it gets worse."

The more experienced investor says, "It's hit 25, which Lutts said would be an ideal entry point. I think I'll put in my buy order."

The difference, you see, is that the novice investor bought immediately following my recommendation, while the experienced investor has been waiting to buy at the right time and the right price. In four days the novice has lost some money; the experienced investor hasn't. But what about the news? Well, it may mark a top for the stock, but I think it's more likely an excellent example of what we like to call "superficial bad news."

Remember, the DOD may award some $8 billion worth of contracts for new armored vehicles, and Force Protection has 81% of the market to date. Under the Army's Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicle program, the government will order about 23,000 armored vehicles, so this award to Navistar is just 5% of that program. There's no doubt the Army wants to spread the awards out, so it can get its vehicles faster. Knowing that, the Navistar award is not unexpected. But Force Protection still has the inside track to receive a big chunk of the orders, so nothing has changed in the big picture.

So why is the stock down? One, because some traders sold on the news. And two, because the stock needed to come down. If you simply look at a chart, that is plain. In fact, on Friday, the stock nearly kissed its 25-day moving average, which had climbed to near 26, before it rebounded to top 27.
But there's that heavy volume to consider. When stocks sell off from their peaks on three times average volume, it sometimes marks the end of the advance . . . but there's no way to know until later.
So how to play it? If you haven't bought yet, you want to wait until the correction is over. The maxim for this situation is, "Don't try to catch a falling knife." Today, the stock fell to 24, a level that offered resistance in April and May. As the days go by the picture changes, and interpretation will change, too.
And if you bought high? Work hard to keep your loss small, and next time don't buy until you have a lower-risk setup.

[ScottishTrader]

Fibs look to stack up well with imprtant support and resistance levels for FRPT - having missed most of the last run I've been looking for a decent entry point.  I thought I had that today, just below $24, when it looked like we were getting a nice trendline bounce, and with important resistance around $24.  Having another look at the chart just now, I think there could be a bit more downside, possibly another dollar.  We can't underestimate the strength of the sell-off over the last 3 days, and I think FRPT may want to come down and pierce the 50MA at $23.03 (today's low was 23.41), as well as hit the 50% Fib retracement, at $22.85.  That seems like it would be more bullish for the stock.  Still, it is hard to say, what the market gods will decide, but La-Onda's article echoes my thoughts here - just becaus Navistar got a big contract, it doesn't mean there is much less of the pie for FRPT, in fact it suggests the DoD is in order issuing mode, and we could hear about a major order for FRPT shortly.  I think this could be a good area to reposition as the negative sentiment on FRPT will doubtfully last long.

[TerryG]

This is becoming a all or nothing, blink and you miss, zig instead of zag. proposition. I say wait for the June contracts come.

But here is some recent news.

Associated press
June, 4, 2007
Analysts Expect More MRAP Contracts Soon

.......The Defense Department wants to buy 7,774 MRAP vehicles expected to cost $8.4 billion this fiscal year. If approved, the military may seek to get funding up to $20 billion in future years for as many as 18,000 MRAPs.......

http://www.forbes.com/markets/economy/2007/06/04/force-protection-udpate-markets-equity-cx_er_0604markets25.html

Market Scan
Competitive Concerns Sap Force Protection

Evelyn M. Rusli, 06.04.07, 7:58 PM ET

.....The outstanding 4,961 vehicle orders for 2007 will likely go to the five other major contractors who have not yet received a large order, she said. Three or four contracts of Navistar's size could be awarded in the next two weeks, Millard said. She also predicted that Force Protection's share of the contracts will eventually dip to 30%. .......

http://videoplayer.thestreet.com/?clipId=1373_10360996&channel=Market+Strategy&cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=&cm_ite=&puc=yahoo&ts=1181180605218

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